Winter Outlook 2018-2019

[Palm crazy]

This guy has a different take on this winter outlook. Looks better than most and it actually more of a typical winter I think.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjcsTbD1pPM

[kinzyjr]

Thank you for sharing this.  He does a great job explaining the rationale for his predictions.  For my area, he's predicting above average winter precipitation (very wet), slightly below average temperatures, and "average" snowfall

He did mention 2009-2010 when talking about the snowfall for the mid-Atlantic states.

[Palm crazy]

Let's take a look at his October forecast. See how accurate it is...   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7CTYSLlTmw

Already cooling down here a lot. 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Palm crazy

[kinzyjr]

We haven't cooled off much, but it is much more comfortable outside in the evening and the rain has subsided.  The breeze helps quite a bit as well:

[PalmTreeDude]

We are starting to cool now, especially with ours lows at night. 

[Palm crazy]

More Bad News for the country first major cold spell. This is supposed to last for a few weeks. Yikes! Will be seeing this pattern a lot this winter. WOW good for the West bad for the East. 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Dg6-gocLAtQ

Edited November 10, 2018 by Palm crazy

[GottmitAlex]

2 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

More Bad News for the country first major cold spell. This is supposed to last for a few weeks. Yikes! Will be seeing this pattern a lot this winter. WOW good for the West bad for the East. 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Dg6-gocLAtQ

My sibling who's in Greensboro, is getting ready for tonight.. they're calling for 24F.  His thermometer currently reads 45F.

Here in Socal, 85F.

 

 

[Palm crazy]

1 hour ago, GottmitAlex said:

My sibling who's in Greensboro, is getting ready for tonight.. they're calling for 24F.  His thermometer currently reads 45F.

Here in Socal, 85F.

 

 

 

 

85F sounds really nice right now, enjoy! 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Palm crazy

[Palm crazy]

1 hour ago, GottmitAlex said:

My sibling who's in Greensboro, is getting ready for tonight.. they're calling for 24F.  His thermometer currently reads 45F.

Here in Socal, 85F.

 

 

I went ahead and brought inside my potted bromeliads and tender aloes & cacti in the unheated shade greenhouse and still warm enough to keep my potted blooming cannas and philodendron outside. Those will all stay outside till it gets really cold. Still, lots of late summer flowers blooming and winter flowers are all budding really nice so should have lots of food for the hummers this winter. Will be interesting to see how long my bananas stay evergreen.  Early spring growing plants are already starting to pop up out of the ground but they grow really slow during the winter. 

85F sounds really nice right now, enjoy! 

[GottmitAlex]

9 minutes ago, Palm crazy said:

I went ahead and brought inside my potted bromeliads and tender aloes & cacti in the unheated shade greenhouse and still warm enough to keep my potted blooming cannas and philodendron outside. Those will all stay outside till it gets really cold. Still, lots of late summer flowers blooming and winter flowers are all budding really nice so should have lots of food for the hummers this winter. Will be interesting to see how long my bananas stay evergreen.  Early spring growing plants are already starting to pop up out of the ground but they grow really slow during the winter. 

85F sounds really nice right now, enjoy! 

Good luck! Seems youve things under conttol. I really can't believe we're getting these high temps this late in the year. 

Carpe diem!!

 

 

 

[mdsonofthesouth]

Just brought in my pots as we have had January weather the past few days and will continue for the foreseeable future. Ill be more or less OK with this trend so long as we dont dip as much as we did last winter. 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

Big early cold spell for south central US currently - snow flurries in Houston on November 13???

Hope this isnt a practice shot for whats to come later...

After this cold wave, no significant cold snaps expected into early December but you have to wonder whats down the road.

[mdsonofthesouth]

11 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Big early cold spell for south central US currently - snow flurries in Houston on November 13???

Hope this isnt a practice shot for whats to come later...

After this cold wave, no significant cold snaps expected into early December but you have to wonder whats down the road.

 

That's my worry...if late October early November is this cold how will January and February be?? My hope is close to average but I have become quite negative when concerning winter. I fear 2018 will be a walk in the park compared to when this winter gets going full steam....

[UK_Palms]

As usual the British media are fear-mongering, telling us that it is going to be the coldest winter in 100 years and to start preparing for it, stocking up on food and emergency supplies, gas etc. They say the same thing every year, but it just further confuses predictions this side of the pond. It's very hard to get a long-term projection because of the constant fear mongering and exaggerated reports that are thrown in amongst it. I turned on the news the other night and it said "Breaking News, Britain to experience coldest winter since world war 1", at which point I turned the TV off. It's just so cynical. I don't see how meteorologists can really predict more than a month ahead anyway. 

Seeing as this September just gone was our coldest September on record, with frosts and freezing cold nights... I figured this winter would be freezing. But so far we are now experiencing our warmest November on record, with no frosts at all and daytime temps between 50-60F. It's a proper yo-yo effect and it doesn't make sense, since it should be getting progressively colder, not warmer. I mean how can November be warmer than September!? So I have no idea what to expect this winter.

We had mild weather in Jan & Feb this year, with several t-shirt days in the 60s, only to get caught off guard by a record cold spell and snow the following month in March, which saw the temperature plummet down to 10F. Jan & Feb didn't see lows below 25F and didn't have any snow. So no idea what we have in store for us this winter. I just hope the current freeze in midwest America doesn't get dragged over here by the Gulf stream. More often than not it does. Fingers crossed for everybody this winter. Myself included. 

[Palm crazy]

Last nights low was 46F but I did have two cold nights in November 33.6F and 33.4F. Most likely will have below freezing come Late December and again in January. February is supposed to be super warm this coming year. Will have to see what happens. 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Palm crazy

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

Last nights low was 46F but I did have two cold nights in November 33.6F and 33.4F. Most likely will have below freezing come Late December and again in January. February is supposed to be super warm this coming year. Will have to see what happens. 

We've been running roughly similar lately, Highs mostly in the 70's.. with a few 60s and low 80s (at the start of the month) thrown in. Lows have been in the in the 40s since Nov. 2nd, and recorded our first sub 40F of the season yesterday morning. This after a very wet and cool October. Driving around, you can see a green carpet of seedlings below many trees along the freeways, and in some bigger, less maintained commercial landscapes.. Unlike any "greening" seen after the June surprise, the cooler weather this time of year assures that anything that sprang up in October will stay around longer, esp. if we see decent rain over the next 2-3 months. Another result of the extra moisture last month has been seeing a number of local Palo Verde flowering, for the second time this year, which is a bit unusual.  

As great as the weather is now, it's about time winter rain and snow season kicks in. While models keep flip-flopping timing-wise, they continue hinting at a series of potential storms for us and CA starting around the middle or end of next week.. Fingers crossed.

On a side note, Flagstaff has recorded lows in the low teens the past few days and continues making snow at the Ski resorts up that way. They can keep it, lol.

[Palm crazy]

Yes, the jet stream is supposed to go south next week and into Southern California and the South West. You guys really need this rain. 

Winter-blooming shrubs are starting earlier than normal or have tons of flower ready to open!  One very fragrant winter-blooming shrub is blooming now, normal time is usually December. It a gardeners dream come true. LOL.  

 

 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Palm crazy

[mdsonofthesouth]

2 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

Yes, the jet stream is supposed to go south next week and into Southern California and the South West. You guys really need this rain. 

Winter-blooming shrubs are starting earlier than normal or have tons of flower ready to open!  One very fragrant winter-blooming shrub is blooming now, normal time is usually December. It a gardeners dream come true. LOL.  

 

 

 

Meanwhile in the east my wonderful yucca flowers are sagging and starting to wilt before openning fully... 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

Yes, the jet stream is supposed to go south next week and into Southern California and the South West. You guys really need this rain. 

Winter-blooming shrubs are starting earlier than normal or have tons of flower ready to open!  One very fragrant winter-blooming shrub is blooming now, normal time is usually December. It a gardeners dream come true. LOL.  

 

 

Definitely need it for sure, esp. Southern CA and the mountains there and out this way.. We'll see what happens.

Have a few summer / fall stragglers flowering atm but most stuff is either going dormant ( Plumeria, Bursera, various other stuff ) or slowing down for the year. Strangely, one of the Bursera, one that is supposedly from southern Mexico, whose species name is a tongue twister, is trying to leaf out after staying dormant all year.. Usually it is green from mid May until about now. Other than that, a coupe things i brought with from Florida, Marlberry, Ardisia escallonioides, and my larger Saffron Plum, Sideroxylon celestrinum are budded up and will be "on stage" for their annual show in another week or two. Both are fragrant also, esp. the Saffron Plum ( strong Gardenia / Jasmine scent )  My stubborn Ferrocactus latispinus  also decided to flower this year. Purple flowers on it are a nice, holiday season treat. 

Hopeful we do get rain since i have a bunch of spring wildflower seed to spread out front. It will be a nice welcome mat for whom ever moves in here when we head back to CA. next spring. 

[Palm crazy]

22 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

 

Meanwhile in the east my wonderful yucca flowers are sagging and starting to wilt before openning fully... 

Maybe it will survive this cold spell and continue blooming! Yuccas are pretty tough plants. Garden is looking good. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Palm crazy

[Palm crazy]

21 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Definitely need it for sure, esp. Southern CA and the mountains there and out this way.. We'll see what happens.

Have a few summer / fall stragglers flowering atm but most stuff is either going dormant ( Plumeria, Bursera, various other stuff ) or slowing down for the year. Strangely, one of the Bursera, one that is supposedly from southern Mexico, whose species name is a tongue twister, is trying to leaf out after staying dormant all year.. Usually it is green from mid May until about now. Other than that, a coupe things i brought with from Florida, Marlberry, Ardisia escallonioides, and my larger Saffron Plum, Sideroxylon celestrinum are budded up and will be "on stage" for their annual show in another week or two. Both are fragrant also, esp. the Saffron Plum ( strong Gardenia / Jasmine scent )  My stubborn Ferrocactus latispinus  also decided to flower this year. Purple flowers on it are a nice, holiday season treat. 

Hopeful we do get rain since i have a bunch of spring wildflower seed to spread out front. It will be a nice welcome mat for whom ever moves in here when we head back to CA. next spring. 

Sounds like things are progressing along nicely. Winter blooms are always a nice treat during these dark cloudy days up here. 

Winter weeds are in full force, there are only two months when they don't grow and that's July and August. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Palm crazy

[mdsonofthesouth]

3 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

Maybe it will survive this cold spell and continue blooming! Yuccas are pretty tough plants. Garden is looking good. 

Thanks everything more of less looks like it did in summer still thankfully. Oh and the yuccas are bullet proof here, but I fear the long cold will be the end for the flowers. Hopefully next November is closer to average so blooming is better. We will have had a good mess of far bellow average (15-20F+ bellow) highs more akin to January averages than November by the end of my 10 day forcast. 

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by mdsonofthesouth

[Matthew92]

30 degrees and frost at my parent's house back near Ft. Walton Beach, FL. Not unusual for there- will help start getting the citrus and other things into dormancy before harder freezes Dec-Feb.

[kinzyjr]

14 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

Thanks everything more of less looks like it did in summer still thankfully. Oh and the yuccas are bullet proof here, but I fear the long cold will be the end for the flowers. Hopefully next November is closer to average so blooming is better. We will have had a good mess of far bellow average (15-20F+ bellow) highs more akin to January averages than November by the end of my 10 day forcast.

You hit the nail on the head!  Definitely January weather coming early.

4 hours ago, Opal92 said:

30 degrees and frost at my parent's house back near Ft. Walton Beach, FL. Not unusual for there- will help start getting the citrus and other things into dormancy before harder freezes Dec-Feb.

What a difference just by moving to a different area of the state!

It was supposed to drop to 44F here.  The airport recorded 46F or 47F, depending on which site you trust more.  I recorded 50.5F for a low at 6am this morning.  We'll likely reach 70F in a few more hours.  It's already 67.5F on my weather station.

[Palm crazy]

I was surprised to learn on the news last night that the El Nino isn't even here yet. It supposes to hit us in the PNW come January and February, that's when it will really warm up here. So yeah look out for some really cold spells for you guys then. I'm not worried about this winter to much but next year (2019-2020) I hope we can squeeze by with just one more mild one. I have a garden tour coming then and I hate to have palm damage that year. 

I'm glad I live in a microclimate the last cold spell we had the other night it was 30F at the airport and only 39F at my place in town. Sunny days ahead and chilly at night this weekend. Yuck! It was in the low 50F this morning though. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Palm crazy

[mdsonofthesouth]

So we are well bellow average already and the real effects arent even here yet...now I'm really worried...

[Silas_Sancona]

2 minutes ago, Palm crazy said:

I was surprised to learn on the news last night that the El Nino isn't even here yet. It supposes to hit us in the PNW come January and February, that's when it will really warm up here. So yeah look out for some of the really cold spells for you guys then. I'm not worried about this winter to much but next year (2019-2020) I hope we can squeeze by with just one more mild one. I have a garden tour coming then and I hate to have palm damage that year. 

I'm glad I live in a microclimate the last cold spell we had the other night it was 30F at the airport and only 39F at my place in town. Sunny days ahead and chilly at night this weekend. Yuck! It was in the low 50F this morning though. 

You are correct.. the MJO/ENSO end of the Pacific forecast issued 2-3X times weekly over on Stormsurf  sums it up perfectly.. " ...Our assumption a normal winter pattern will result,  but nothing more." Coupling between what is expected in the atmosphere and the ocean under El Nino conditions isn't coming together as thought previously.. If it develops, it will be weak and not exerting much influence. That said, the overall pattern is looking better than it has for the last 2 winters.

Current ensemble mean forecast ( Dashed black line ) from the CFSv2 on their site looks to barely rise above +1.0, then trend below that after Jan. then rise back above and hang between +1.0 and +1.5'ish again starting around April & going through July. That said, it doesn't fall below +0.0 through the entire suggested time frame either.  We'll see what happens.. The current * sort of El Nino / sort of Neutral / no real La Nina * forecast plot reminds me of what occurred in the early 90's before the big El Nino event in '97.  

Looking at the latest, monthly precip. forecasts from the NMME models ( 9 models used, 2 additional *probability* models), a rainy winter for CA and us here in AZ is split -50/+50 or -60/+40 for chances of above average precip. through the winter.. leaning lower than suggested back in September. Things could be *interesting* come spring since these same models are leaning wetter for the April-June time frame here and in CA.. Which, if it happens, would be a bit unusual.. Then again.. Unusual is kind of a new normal atm weather-wise.

 

[Palm crazy]

24 minutes ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

So we are well bellow average already and the real effects arent even here yet...now I'm really worried...

 One winter I had a low of 15F in November followed by a mild December and January with nothing lower than 30F. The weather really keeps you on your toes sometimes. That's why I don't grow anything to tender in the ground anymore. I sleep a lot better. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Palm crazy

[mdsonofthesouth]

14 minutes ago, Palm crazy said:

 One winter I had a low of 15F in November followed by a mild December and January with nothing lower than 30F. The weather really keeps you on your toes sometimes. That's why I don't grow anything to tender in the ground anymore. I sleep a lot better. 

 

Yeah I planted all my stuff on the wrong side of the house to sleep good lol. Learned from my mistake and will be planting in a much better spot come spring that will allow me some peace of mind.

[Chester B]

I woke up to 0C/32F on Nov 9, no frost at my house but the homes on the street below me had a light dusting.  East winds through the Gorge will be picking up again today or tomorrow so we may dip down to at or below freezing this weeked.  Hardly any rain this Oct or Nov with most days being sunny which is quite unusual.  Last year's first frost was Dec 10, with three more during the course of the winter in Feb.

Come on Spring!

[Matthew92]

20 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

You hit the nail on the head!  Definitely January weather coming early.

What a difference just by moving to a different area of the state!

It was supposed to drop to 44F here.  The airport recorded 46F or 47F, depending on which site you trust more.  I recorded 50.5F for a low at 6am this morning.  We'll likely reach 70F in a few more hours.  It's already 67.5F on my weather station.

So it sounds like your location is a micro-climate? Also, as far as I can see, around Orlando this morning it got as cold has the night before with multiple weather stations reporting 45 again.

[kinzyjr]

16 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

So it sounds like your location is a micro-climate? Also, as far as I can see, around Orlando this morning it got as cold has the night before with multiple weather stations reporting 45 again.

Most of the urban portion of the city is a little warmer than the airport (similar to Orlando).  Lakeland Linder is out in the sticks to the west of the actual city and is noticeably cooler.  I average 3F higher than the airport during cold events.  There may be other locations a little higher in elevation and/or closer to lakes that are warmer.

[Palm crazy]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Most of the urban portion of the city is a little warmer than the airport (similar to Orlando).  Lakeland Linder is out in the sticks to the west of the actual city and is noticeably cooler.  I average 3F higher than the airport during cold events.  There may be other locations a little higher in elevation and/or closer to lakes that are warmer.

Opal and Kinzyjr, my microclimate is even more extreme than the airport. I am always 5F-10F warmer at night than the airport. I'll never forget one really bad winter a long time ago when the airport was -2F and my place 14F. Both are at the same elevation but I'm close to water and island heat. Not bad for 8a I'd say. 

[mdsonofthesouth]

The drive between the orange and green is 6 to 10min and the difference tonight is 36f at home and 28 to 29 there. But I have seen upwards of 10f difference quite often. Surprisingly there are native strands of loblolly all over the cooler green area more so than where I live.

 

[UK_Palms]

There is so much to take into account when it comes to microclimates... elevation, bodies of water, valleys which channel cold air, urban heat islands, types of terrain etc.

It's currently 7am here and my outdoor weather station is reading a chilly 31F. The weather station in my village shows a reading of 32F, so it's fair to say it is 31-32F here right now. But just 5-10 minutes away in Charleston and neighbouring Jamestown, all 4 weather stations are reading 40-41F. So it is almost 10F warmer there, compared to here. 

The difference is due to me being at a higher elevation and being located directly between 2 valleys, which channels the cold air through, from the north, straight towards me. The other two towns are slightly more protected by one of those two valleys to the north of them, which stops some of the cold airflow. Plus they aren't as high up as I am, elevation-wise, as the valleys I am between form part of a small mountain range. That is almost certainly why I am colder here.

Springfield and Petersfield to the west of me are showing lows of 26F and they are just 15 minutes from me. But they are at an even higher elevation and have no valleys or mountains to the north to help stop the flow of cold air masses. There's got to be another microclimate factor in the equation as well, seeing as their lows are 15F colder than the lows just 4-5 miles away from me. It's certainly intriguing to see the drastic differences in temperatures between such short distances. You can grow Canary Island Date Palms outdoors all year around in Charleston due to it's microclimate, but go 5-6 miles west to Springfield and they don't stand a chance. 

[Palm crazy]

UK_Palms, you are so right. I live on a hill and have good cold air drainage. I also sometimes have fog clearing way faster than down the hill where it stays foggy for a few hours longer. Last night was my first freeze at 32.3F nothing is damage and the puddle of water never froze so must not have been for very long. Very sunny today and will warm up to the 50's. Next week the rains started again and things will be much warmer at night. (my croton in the ground will drop their leaves now but they are just annuals for me, lol.) The Fastisa are in full bloom and the hummers are eating the pollen like crazy. I can't complain it could be much worst. 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Palm crazy

[Matthew92]

Very chilly day in Orlando. Barely above 50, only intermittent sun, and strong winds makes it feel much colder.

[Matthew92]

In know one image quite a few days out on a model run is somewhat unlikely to play out, but I've been seeing consistency in the colder weather coming back to the East in early March in some form. Just a reminder that it isn't completely over yet. There have been freezing temps in March in N. FL more than once in the last 10 years. The exact same thing happened last year. As soon as January ended, all the cold switched back to the Western CONUS, and practically the entire month of February was mid to high 70's at my location in NW FL. It caused things to bud and bloom out only to get damaged by early March light freezes when the cold came back to the Eastern CONUS.

[PalmatierMeg]

Looks like the map is predicting a low of 50F for me on 3/5. Certainly possible in early March but should be short lived as temps should rebound quickly after sunrise. Sunshine is much stronger in early March than early Jan. But I have a feeling the map's prediction is a bit dire for all of FL.

[Matthew92]

7 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Looks like the map is predicting a low of 50F for me on 3/5. Certainly possible in early March but should be short lived as temps should rebound quickly after sunrise. Sunshine is much stronger in early March than early Jan. But I have a feeling the map's prediction is a bit dire for all of FL.

Although I will say- March of last year had 40's and even 30's in Central FL. Looking at the records, I almost forgot it was this chilly in Orlando.