Hard times coming on the Northern Gulf Coast

[_Keith]

Spring keeps getting uglier and uglier. New low predictions for 1st week of January are 26,21,24,27,27,33. I am not sure I ever remember 5 continuous nights below freezing, and almost a 6th. This decade has been a tough one on the garden. Got at least 2 palms that will not survive, and likely more that will bite the bullets as well.  Bye bye Jubutia.  Looking at my shovel and thinking I will dig up my last remaining B. alfredii.  Quite a few of the Citrus already badly injured from previous freezes won't be back. I sit in shock, without true words to describe my feelings.

[kinzyjr]

@_Keith It has been a little depressing watching the forecast continually get worse.  My usual protection methods will probably have to be revised to keep the precipitation from soaking the towels and blankets I usually use.  Good luck up there man.  Hope some of your stuff makes it through.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Jubaea x Butia crosses won't burn at 12-13F so you're good on those.  I have 18 JxB F1 that will see three nights of high teens in a row this week and I am not worried whatsoever about them. 

[Palm crazy]

Keith cover up those tender palms and they just might make it... others are totally hardy..... Hopefully your highs will be in the 40's. 

[_Keith]

Well, there goes Day 6 now projected below freezing.   25,21,25,26,26,30.  Damn.

[RedRabbit]

Good luck Keith. How does that compare to what you experienced there in 2010? 

Might not be a bad idea to dig up the alfie, I'd be very impressed if it can survive those temps. 

[Tropicdoc]

This will definitely be the “reset” year. I’m even worried about my butia x parajubaea hybrids. Just so many freezing nights in a row

[mdsonofthesouth]

On 12/30/2017, 4:29:49, _Keith said:

Spring keeps getting uglier and uglier. New low predictions for 1st week of January are 26,21,24,27,27,33. I am not sure I ever remember 5 continuous nights below freezing, and almost a 6th. This decade has been a tough one on the garden. Got at least 2 palms that will not survive, and likely more that will bite the bullets as well.  Bye bye Jubutia.  Looking at my shovel and thinking I will dig up my last remaining B. alfredii.  Quite a few of the Citrus already badly injured from previous freezes won't be back. I sit in shock, without true words to describe my feelings.

 

Starting in 2010 the weather has been rough as hell on trying to grow things. Heck I even lost "bulletproof" plants throughout this decade. Summers have been less warm and winters off and on more brutal. Honestly it makes me wonder where all this "global warming" is...

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

11 minutes ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

. Summers have been less warm.

That sure hasnt been the case for the southern states...

[mdsonofthesouth]

Our last August was chilly. Usually its the hottest month. But our "days over 90" have have apparently gone up. We had a day in August that never reached 60F with the preceding and following day in the 60s which is unheard of. I guess maybe Im wrong on the summers after a quick search, but we have had some "cold snaps" in summer where temps are far bellow the norm and thus thats the feeling I get. On average we have 30 or so 90F + days and apparently that trend has changed for the warmer and more common. So I stand corrected on that. 

 

I guess I have blinders on to that aspect and hyper focus on cold since it bothers me so much. I think Im going to record temps at my house from tomorrow on so I can have a reference to our weather history. I know you can get that online, but this will be hyper focused to my actual home and not the general area.

Edited January 1, 2018 by mdsonofthesouth

[Ed in Houston]

Here are the temperatures of the western Gulf this morning at about 6:15 am. The largest deviation from norm looks to the S. Louisiana for today. Houston and the Texas coast along with the Mississippi delta region escaped a freeze but colder temperatures are forecast as the frigid air continues to pour into the area.

 

Ed in Houston

[mdsonofthesouth]

Wow south LA watwr temps are like the chesapeake right now. Wonder if they will see the ice we are seeing here...erie as i cant remember the last time ice formed on the our bay. I think 1993 and 1977 were the last times nut I could be wrong on 93. 

 

Hope yall make it through and hope spring comes early!

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

@mdsonofthesouthThose aren't water temperatures they're air temperatures from stations on drill ships, drilling platforms or boats.

[mdsonofthesouth]

Ahh was about to say thay must be some kind of record for the gulf if they were.

[RedRabbit]

49 minutes ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

Ahh was about to say thay must be some kind of record for the gulf if they were.

I read somewhere on here that the Mississippi River was putting out icebergs during the freeze of 1899. Crazy to think about!

Edited January 1, 2018 by RedRabbit

[mdsonofthesouth]

35 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I read somewhere on here that the Mississippi River was putting out icebergs during the freeze of 1899. Crazy to think about!

 

Holy cow thats crazy! My grandpa has said that its gotten consistently warmer as time goes by heres hoping we are coming out of this mini ice age/cooling period and not going back in it. The data seems to point to most areas getting warmer while the eastern US feeling cooler in winter and warmer in summer. But again might be my blinders on again haha!

 

Ive started my temperature log this AM, and will do so from now on.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

17.2 at the house, 15.4 at the nursery.  

[Ed in Houston]

Well this is odd. Forecasters predicted lows in the Houston area to be 22-25 and yet this morning at 6:45 lows across Houston were 30-32. At my place it is 32 this morning, not even cold enough to bother my elephant ears. Cloudy skies, north winds and very low dew points were all realized as predicted just not the cold temperatures. The hard freeze warning issued just failed to materialize in all of the South Texas area. However, South Louisiana did not escape the hard freeze except in the delta region.

I am not going to complain about the missed forecast for fear that the weather gods might seek revenge.

 

Ed in Houston

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Very odd night, but the clouds rolled in and helped out a lot.  Only dropped to 22 last night and I thought for sure it was going to be a lot worse.

[_Keith]

21 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I read somewhere on here that the Mississippi River was putting out icebergs during the freeze of 1899. Crazy to think about!

It was indeed.   We sat on the levee in Baton Rouge, where the river is 2300 ft wide, and watch the large pieces of ice, edge to edge floating by.   University Lake at LSU was frozen over to the point you could walk on it.  Lows reported from 7 to 9 degrees across the coast.  A few days later the bayous were a sea floating fish going out with the tide, millions of fish frozen to death in the marshes.

[kinzyjr]

4 hours ago, _Keith said:

It was indeed.   We sat on the levee in Baton Rouge, where the river is 2300 ft wide, and watch the large pieces of ice, edge to edge floating by.   University Lake at LSU was frozen over to the point you could walk on it.  Lows reported from 7 to 9 degrees across the coast.  A few days later the bayous were a sea floating fish going out with the tide, millions of fish frozen to death in the marshes.

You were there for the freeze of 1899 @_Keith?  You look so much younger

[Ed in Houston]

There is a small disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico just south of New Orleans at 4pm and currently bringing snow to Grand Isle Louisiana with a temperature of 34F. This disturbance moved through S. Houston about 8am this morning and brought a bit of light sleet. It is moving almost due west and may move over the Florida peninsula tonight. The temperatures are warmer in Florida currently than in S. Louisiana but may cool down enough by tonight to bring some icy precipitation.

 

 

Ed in Houston

[Alan_Tampa]

22 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

You were there for the freeze of 1899 @_Keith?  You look so much younger

I was thinking this also. Maybe he's a vampire?

[Laaz]

[_Keith]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

You were there for the freeze of 1899 @_Keith?  You look so much younger

I was 51 when that picture was taken.  Sadly, that was not last year.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Tonight was a completely clear night resulting is the coldest temps of this event at 16-17F to end this dreadful run of cold.  Sun coming up soon and we'll be in the high 40's and this event will be completely behind us.  Lows above freezing in the 10 day forecast highs in the 60's over the weekend.

[Tropicdoc]

We’re not done yet here in Louisiana 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Horray!!! After roughly 74 hours below freezing we are back above that magical number. Only took 3 hours to double our temperature!

[mdsonofthesouth]

East coast still has thursday and friday left....

[mthteh1916]

On 12/30/2017, 4:29:49, _Keith said:

Spring keeps getting uglier and uglier. New low predictions for 1st week of January are 26,21,24,27,27,33. I am not sure I ever remember 5 continuous nights below freezing, and almost a 6th. This decade has been a tough one on the garden. Got at least 2 palms that will not survive, and likely more that will bite the bullets as well.  Bye bye Jubutia.  Looking at my shovel and thinking I will dig up my last remaining B. alfredii.  Quite a few of the Citrus already badly injured from previous freezes won't be back. I sit in shock, without true words to describe my feelings.

Keith, didn't the last two winters which were very mild, help your citrus to fully recover? I saw loads of citrus in south Alabama that looked great last February. Saw the same in Beaufort SC. I didn't think S. Louisiana got that cold the last two years. Are you north of New Orleans or south of New Orleans?

[_Keith]

They never fully recovered from the freezes in 2010 and 2013.  They were growing and fruiting, but fruit was lower quality than before.   You could still see sections of rotten trunk the new bark had not yet fully enclosed.   

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

More cold coming to Texas and South LA. More days with sub 40 highs and low 20's for lows.

[Ed in Houston]

Once again this season, icy conditions are invading S.E. Texas. This is the third time this season that icy precipitation has fallen in Houston. The icy precipitation is continuing to push south and east.

On December the 7th,  about an inch of snow fell at my place covering my lady palms.

 

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

10am, sun came out an hour ago and the temp has dropped 3 more degrees to 18.  Not good for us but the coldest of the cold air could arrive in Houston tonight just as thr sky clears setting up most of the city for many hours of sub 20 temps. 

[Matthew92]

Going to be an interesting 24 hours here...

Excerpts from morning NWS discussion out of Mobile (forecast area includes Gulf Coast from MS to NW FL Panhandle)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...An amplifying upper level
trough over the Great Lakes rotates across the eastern CONUS
through the near term period. This pushes a strong cold front
southeast into the Deep South and through the local area late this
morning and afternoon. Expect today`s highs to be reached ahead
of this frontal passage, as temperatures in its wake will quickly
plummet with the onset of strong cold air advection. A broad area
of large-scale forcing associated with the upper trough will
support a band of precipitation following the frontal passage.
Model guidance continues to indicate these showers beginning as a
wintry mix of rain and snow, then quickly transitioning to all
light snow as temperatures fall below freezing. This band is
progged to reach our interior SE MS/SW AL counties early this
afternoon, the I-65 corridor between 6pm and midnight CST, and
eventually exit our area to the southeast late tonight. Only minor
snow accumulations are expected, with most only seeing up to half
an inch, though some inland areas could see isolated amounts up
to or just over an inch. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for all areas along and north of the I-10 corridor from
noon today until 6am CST Wednesday. Given the generally light
accumulations, not anticipating any significant travel impacts
from this system. That said, any localized heavier snow bands will
be capable of producing slick spots on roads, especially on
bridges and overpasses.

A bitter cold night is in store for areas that see skies clear in
the wake of the front. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect starting
at midnight tonight, generally along and west of I-65 where low
temps will range from the mid teens to around 20 degrees. Elsewhere,
lingering cloud cover will mean lows in the low to mid 20`s. One
concern regarding these bitter temperatures is the potential for
black ice early Wednesday morning, as any residual moisture left on
roads will freeze and cause slick spots. Also, the combination of
these temperatures and north winds around 10 to 15 mph will result
in single digit wind chill values for much of the area. Thus, a Wind
Chill Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight until 11am CST
Wednesday. /49

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A brisk northerly
wind will continue Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong 1040
mb surface high pressure area settles across the lower Mississippi
River region. This high will then shift east across the southeast
states Thursday and Thursday night, bringing light and variable
winds to the area. A prolonged very cold air mass will persist
across the region through the short term. As a result, the Hard
Freeze Warning has been extended to include all zones Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory will also
likely be required Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The upper shortwave will move quickly east of the area Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, with a dry very cold air mass filtering
into the region from the north. This air mass will remain in place
through the remainder of the short term as upper flow becomes
zonal, keeping the area precipitation free.

High temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to reach just above
freezing by mid afternoon despite the sunny skies, ranging from
33 to 38 degrees. Again, these bitter temperatures may result in
the potential for black ice through early afternoon Wednesday, as
any residual moisture left on roads will freeze and cause slick
spots. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from 13 to 18
degrees, and around 20 degrees at the beaches. Temperatures on
Thursday will reach the mid 40s, falling into the upper teens to
mid 20s overnight. /22
 

 

[AnTonY]

@TexasColdHardyPalms temps there are not forecasted to go below 20F.

@Ed in Houston similar to 2014, where there was more than one event (I believe 2).

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

1 minute ago, AnTonY said:

@TexasColdHardyPalms temps there are not forecasted to go below 20F.

@Ed in Houston similar to 2014, where there was more than one event (I believe 2).

Yea, not in downtown Houston or to the south east, but i expect to see a lot of teens in the houston city limits and suburbs tomorrow morning. Anywhere outside beltway 8 on the north and west will be robusta burning cold and coupled with last years winter and this years winter a lot of post 2011 queens will succumb.  

[DoomsDave]

On 12/30/2017, 1:29:49, _Keith said:

Spring keeps getting uglier and uglier. New low predictions for 1st week of January are 26,21,24,27,27,33. I am not sure I ever remember 5 continuous nights below freezing, and almost a 6th. This decade has been a tough one on the garden. Got at least 2 palms that will not survive, and likely more that will bite the bullets as well.  Bye bye Jubutia.  Looking at my shovel and thinking I will dig up my last remaining B. alfredii.  Quite a few of the Citrus already badly injured from previous freezes won't be back. I sit in shock, without true words to describe my feelings.

[DoomsDave]

Maybe the problem is undulating jet streams?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/17/global-warming-causing-extreme-weather-jet-stream-waves

[AnTonY]

@TexasColdHardyPalms, the latest NWS discussion I saw still had IAH airport, north of the beltway, for lows in the low 20s. But, yes, teens might be possible. We'll have to see.

@DoomsDave, the temperatures in recent cold snaps aren't (yet) as cold as what has been seen in historic cold waves of the 1800s and 1900s. Perhaps the undulating is in terms of the dichotomy between the East and the West.

Edited January 16, 2018 by AnTonY