2018 Florida Freeze

[Alan_Tampa]

Looks like next week is cold o rama for Florida.  

[mdsonofthesouth]

Haha I think its cold o rama for everyone east of the mississippi!

[Alan_Tampa]

I mean like this

[Palmaceae]

Looks like some freezing temps coming down next week, too early to tell how far south it will go. Maybe some flurries in Florida, according to the GFS it may make it down to central Florida.

https://m.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/10155795841847367?refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spaghettimodels.com%2F

Edited December 29, 2017 by Palmaceae

[Alan_Tampa]

I hope this is all wrong and goes away!

[kinzyjr]

Apparently, there is some uncertainty about how bad it will be.

Earlier today:

Now:

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by kinzyjr
Captioning

[Alan_Tampa]

Im using the windy app. Windy.com also works for real computers.  It usually predicts about 12 hours before the usual weather forecast sources. It does update and change a good deal, but still is usually way ahead of others. It called Irma's path about 8 hours ahead of the NWS

[Palmaceae]

The trend is on a downward turn, but still a week away, praying for warmer weather!

[kinzyjr]

@Palmaceae It certainly looks like it.  Hopefully not a repeat of 2010, but if it is, everything is ready

[RedRabbit]

We will have to watch this one closely. The lowest I'm seeing now is 36f on 1/5, but it said 41f this morning so who knows what will really happen.

The Euro model is showing snow around Wesley Chapel, FL. 

Edited December 29, 2017 by RedRabbit

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Based on what Texas and Louisiana are forcasted to see you better be ready for a 2010 repeat. Low 20's and teens in south LA spells trouble for FL.

[kinzyjr]

@RedRabbit Let's hope that Wesley Chapel keeps it to themselves if they get it.

@TexasColdHardyPalms It is certainly trending that way.  Just checked and the forecast was revised downward again to have 2 nights at 35 and 4 consecutive nights in the 30s.  Looks like the coconuts will be covered every night for a week at this point.

[enigma99]

Latest GFS isn't bad at all. It was a couple days ago when I posted the model but now, I wouldn't get too worried. It will be chilly though

Edited December 29, 2017 by enigma99

[Alan_Tampa]

Derek, I hope you are correct! Some forecast sites have backed off on the forecast lows, some have turned the screw. The predicted days for coldest weather differ site to site as well. It is all over the place now.

[kinzyjr]

One thing that has me a little concerned is that there is supposed to be precipitation on some of the cold days and it is supposed to be windy.  Not a good combo, even with lows that are relatively benign.

[enigma99]

52 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

Derek, I hope you are correct! Some forecast sites have backed off on the forecast lows, some have turned the screw. The predicted days for coldest weather differ site to site as well. It is all over the place now.

Night of the 6th is the best chance for cold right now. (yeah I know the forecasts don't show it yet) I think that's the one you'll have to be careful of. But even that shot is out of there a few hours later. 

Good news, it's almost 2018, Spring will be coming soon

Edited December 30, 2017 by enigma99

[enigma99]

Coldest day now 4th again. Looking worse sorry guys

[kinzyjr]

At this point, it looks like we'll have 3 days in the low 30s, with the lowest being 32F on the 4th.  It's realistic that we could get snow if the precipitation on the 3rd comes during the coldest part of the day.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

@kinzyjr I just looked up the Lakeland weather underground forecast and it looks like you have consecutive days @ 50/30, 50/30, 49/30 and 51/31 forecasted so it looks like the FL forecast is doing the same thing ours did the last few days.

[kinzyjr]

@TexasColdHardyPalms Yes, it keeps getting worse.  Apparently, @_Keith is watching the same thing happen in Louisianna.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

I tried to warn everyone.  When Texas kept dropping and Southern LA was in the teens I knew everyone was going to have a bad few weeks. We won't hit the absolute lows that we did in 2011 but the duration and daily highs will be much worse than 2010/11.  I suspect we will have plenty of dead Robusta around the area come spring.  I expect the florida forecasts to continue to drop the next 48 hours as the cold seems to be pushing slightly more east.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

I am now finally seeing some downward movement on the Tallahassee (5 straight days in the low/mid 20's) and Gainesville (4 days in the low 20's) forecasts that seem to be aligning better to what we will see over here.  I have been scratching my head at their (high) forecasts the last two days.

[kinzyjr]

@TexasColdHardyPalms The big thing in my case isn't the temperatures, it's the threat of precipitation at low temperatures this time.  It looks like some of the rain will come on days where the high never reaches 60F.  Covering the coconut palms is not so bad, but the rain will make that chore a little harder since I will probably have to layer it with plastic to keep the moisture out.

[Palmaceae]

This has been a tough year weather wise for our gardens. First the drought, then Irma, now the cold coming. Currently the lowest forecasted temps I have seen for us next week is 37, so we will see.

[IHB1979]

Lowest temperature for the Melbourne barrier island area is Thursday night/Friday morning ranging from 35 to 38. I was concerned about the rain but it looks like that ends for us Wednesday and the high is 65. Then have Wednesday night and Thursday to dry out before the bottom drops out Thursday night. Gonna be close.

Edited December 31, 2017 by IHB1979

[RedRabbit]

Looks like Wunderground is calling for 34f on January 5th. Any colder than this and it might be time to start a thread on methods to protect palms. If it looks like it will freeze I'll probably just do sheets/blankets to keep the frost off. If the forecast dips below 30f I'm leaning towards using infrared light for added heat, but I'm open minded about other methods. 

[Tracy S]

What weather forecast app do you find most accurate in your experience? 

[IHB1979]

The main sites I use are NOAA, Wunderground, and Accuweather. The most accurate is a tough question, in general I find NOAA is the generally the most accurate. Wunderground is nice because it's using personal stations and take into account local microclimates but I question the calibration of some of the stations. Accuweather can sometimes sniff out cold weather events a little further out into the future. I'm not saying that the extended temps are correct, but you can see when they are thinking fronts are coming through and you can start to plan.

At about 48 hours out from any event, your NOAA forecast discussion is pretty valuable.

Edited December 31, 2017 by IHB1979

[IHB1979]

16 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

This has been a tough year weather wise for our gardens. First the drought, then Irma, now the cold coming. Currently the lowest forecasted temps I have seen for us next week is 37, so we will see.

I agree, my garden wasn't fully recovered from Matthew as Irma hit.

[Alan_Tampa]

So,I have accepted that I will lose my jackfruit crop, and as long as the lows stay around 30, that should be it. Started winter procedures today, some frost cloth and hay (hay is cheap and when done with winter enriches the soil.) 

I know my garden (use term loosely) can take 30, and down to 28 for a small amount of time without too many tears. Hope it stays in that range. 

 

Accuweather forecasts about 10 hours behond the GFS it seems, anyone else agree?

[mdsonofthesouth]

18 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

I tried to warn everyone.  When Texas kept dropping and Southern LA was in the teens I knew everyone was going to have a bad few weeks. We won't hit the absolute lows that we did in 2011 but the duration and daily highs will be much worse than 2010/11.  I suspect we will have plenty of dead Robusta around the area come spring.  I expect the florida forecasts to continue to drop the next 48 hours as the cold seems to be pushing slightly more east.

 

Im not in Florida or the gulf coast, but I heeded your warning well before the event. Hopefully it works out for my plants.

[Xhoniwaters1]

They have me with lows in upper twenties for the entire week with tomorrow at 27. Most of my stuff in the ground is 9a hardy but this will really give it a test.

[Alan_Tampa]

So accuweather has northdale at three nights below 30, citrus park has upper 30s on fhe same nights. One forecast is scary, the other is just annoying.  I live on the border betwixt the two areas. Im using the average,  which is what i usally do. 

[Palmaceae]

You don't see this everyday in Florida!

 

[Palmaceae]

[RedRabbit]

22 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

So accuweather has northdale at three nights below 30, citrus park has upper 30s on fhe same nights. One forecast is scary, the other is just annoying.  I live on the border betwixt the two areas. Im using the average,  which is what i usally do. 

Weird forecast, I don't think Citrus Park is any warmer than Northdale. In my experience Citrus Park, Northdale, Carrollwood,  and TnC are all about the same.

I'm still seeing 34f as the low so I'm not getting worried just yet.

[IHB1979]

Latest NWS forecast has the Melbourne barrier island low for Wednesday night at 38 and Thursday night at 36.  

[Palmaceae]

Snow is officially falling in Florida!

 

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Palmaceae

[RedRabbit]

45f and windy currently. Seeing the first signs of damage on my d leptochellos (very minor though.)

[kinzyjr]

Currently 46.2F here, breezy and misty, coconuts wrapped up and covered.  Interested if the others in my area are going to protect or go without and the end results.