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What have you heard about this winter's forecast for the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida?


Mr. Coconut Palm

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42 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

Where are these temps coming from? I don't see a low below 30F on Weather Channel for Corpus, below 34F for Brownsville and below 26F for Houston. 

NWS

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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9 hours ago, LF-TX said:

Obviously the lower RGV has seen these temps before, but correct me if I’m wrong, have we ever seen three or four consecutive nights below 40?! 

The freeze of Jan-Feb 1951 had 6 consecutive nights below freezing in Brownsville, with the coldest night of 22. This event should not be as severe as 2011, much less 1951, but the coconuts and crotons are not going to be happy. 

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17 minutes ago, richtrav said:

The freeze of Jan-Feb 1951 had 6 consecutive nights below freezing in Brownsville, with the coldest night of 22. This event should not be as severe as 2011, much less 1951, but the coconuts and crotons are not going to be happy. 

Interesting... I did not know that! I’m hoping things turn out better than 2011... wouldn’t like to see that again :o  But yes, no doubt that they aren’t going to like this. We’ll see who survives this one.

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IF the forecasts hold up 2011 looks like it will be worse for Texas in general as that cold front was more westerly and the absolute lows were worse but it looks like this year will be much worse for Louisiana and Florida than 2011. 

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Today's state high of 45F was achieved in El Paso. West of the Pecos River, only Brownsville and South Padre briefly got up 40F and 41F respectively. Looks like all of Texas will freeze (or is already below freezing) tonight save for the coastal southern tip and possibly Brownsville (current forecast calls for 33F). Near 0F in the Panhandle. 

My area's forecast calls for 23F tonight and 20F tomorrow night :interesting:...hopefully it will stay zone 9a

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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Only slightly off-topic:  I can't vouch for any of the science behind these theories, but apparently the experts agree that we are about to enter a "solar minimum" (for about eleven years), which will cause Europe and North America to experience colder winters over the next decade or so.  What the scientists do not agree on is whether the new "solar minimum" will reverse global warming.  The following study says that it won't:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-minimum-could-bring-cold-winters-to-europe-and-us-but-would-not-hold-off-climate-change

However, a new study was in the press this past week which argued that the new "solar minimum" will halt global warming, at least until we re-enter a "solar maximum" again in the early 2030s.  (The earth is at the end of a "solar maximum" now) 

In short, the northern hemisphere should brace itself for several colder winters ahead. 

We're supposed to be getting a low of 28 tonight here in northern Florida, and I don't think tomorrow's high will even breach the 50s!  It may even get colder later this week too, although the forecast could still be revised between now and then.      

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7 minutes ago, Sandy Loam said:

We're supposed to be getting a low of 28 tonight here in northern Florida, and I don't think tomorrow's high will even breach the 50s!  It may even get colder later this week too, although the forecast could still be revised between now and then.      

How are your palms doing so far? I saw Gainesville was in the mid-30s all day today. 

Edited by RedRabbit

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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Hello RedRabbit.  They are fine for now (zero winter damage as of yesterday), but I am worried about Thursday night. Forecasts keep changing for that night and it doesn't look good.

According to Weather Channel, Gainesville bottomed out at 31 degrees last night, but I don't know what location they are referring to.  I haven't seen my own thermometer yet. I am in the western suburbs, so am usually colder than the more central areas of town, especially when compared to warm hilltop spots in the first twenty streets north of campus.

 

The forecast was supposed to be in the forties yesterday afternoon, but when I checked as the sun was going down, it was already 34.7 in my yard.  It felt like about 50, so I thought my thermometer was wrong.  I guess it was fine.


There was no frost anywhere (including rooftops) when I left home at dawn this morning.  Yet, during our December 10 cold snap, it got down to about 34 degrees at my place and there was frost all over the rooftops in the early morning.  Strange.

 

 

I assume that Tampa was much warmer, where you are located. However, I don't plant things like Adonidia and Wodyetia (which are all over Tampa Bay --- not up north in Gainesville where Sabal is king).

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... and, as usual, the Southwest is getting off easy again.  The ten-day forecast for Yuma, Arizona has it in the 70s and 80s every day, with dips into the fifties overnight. I can't count how many more cold snaps hit the centre and east of the continent, while completely bypassing Southern California and southwestern Arizona.  They only seem to get about two cold snaps a year out there, although I don't want to misspeak.

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Three nights in the 30s for south SW FL this week., with Thurs. low of 35 being the coldest. Meh. The lows are not predicted to get out of, at most, the 50s this week or through mid-week next week. I have the most tender tropicals hunkering down in the dining room.

Naples (inland), FL - technically 10a but more like 9b in the winter :hmm:

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13 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

Only slightly off-topic:  I can't vouch for any of the science behind these theories, but apparently the experts agree that we are about to enter a "solar minimum" (for about eleven years), which will cause Europe and North America to experience colder winters over the next decade or so.  What the scientists do not agree on is whether the new "solar minimum" will reverse global warming.  The following study says that it won't:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-minimum-could-bring-cold-winters-to-europe-and-us-but-would-not-hold-off-climate-change

However, a new study was in the press this past week which argued that the new "solar minimum" will halt global warming, at least until we re-enter a "solar maximum" again in the early 2030s.  (The earth is at the end of a "solar maximum" now) 

In short, the northern hemisphere should brace itself for several colder winters ahead. 

We're supposed to be getting a low of 28 tonight here in northern Florida, and I don't think tomorrow's high will even breach the 50s!  It may even get colder later this week too, although the forecast could still be revised between now and then.      

 

 

I sure hope they are wrong as thats a very depressing outlook for me. 

LOWS 16/17 12F, 17/18 3F, 18/19 7F, 19/20 20F

Palms growing in my garden: Trachycarpus Fortunei, Chamaerops Humilis, Chamaerops Humilis var. Cerifera, Rhapidophyllum Hystrix, Sabal Palmetto 

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2 hours ago, mdsonofthesouth said:

 

 

I sure hope they are wrong as thats a very depressing outlook for me. 

After this week, I am not sure it matters anymore, at least in my garden.

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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50 minutes ago, _Keith said:

After this week, I am not sure it matters anymore, at least in my garden.

 

Yeah thursday and friday will kill native plants...

LOWS 16/17 12F, 17/18 3F, 18/19 7F, 19/20 20F

Palms growing in my garden: Trachycarpus Fortunei, Chamaerops Humilis, Chamaerops Humilis var. Cerifera, Rhapidophyllum Hystrix, Sabal Palmetto 

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Because of winter storm "GRAYSON", schools will be closed tomorrow and Thursday throughout certain counties in northern Florida.  They might even get a little snow up in Tallahassee.  Some counties will see freezing rain overnight, which -- as you know -- palms adore.

The worst part is that we're forecast to have 23 degrees F on Thursday night.  We haven't seen 23 degrees since 2010. I've got palms that can take 26, but not 23, so this is going to be interesting. The freezing rain (if we get it) will make things even more interesting.

Meanwhile, during our deadly night of 23 F, Key West, FL is supposed to drop down to 56 F overnight -- which I suppose is cold for the Florida Keys, but goes to show how Florida is a state of contrasting climates.      

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2 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

Because of winter storm "GRAYSON", schools will be closed tomorrow and Thursday throughout certain counties in northern Florida.  They might even get a little snow up in Tallahassee.  Some counties will see freezing rain overnight, which -- as you know -- palms adore.

The worst part is that we're forecast to have 23 degrees F on Thursday night.  We haven't seen 23 degrees since 2010. I've got palms that can take 26, but not 23, so this is going to be interesting. The freezing rain (if we get it) will make things even more interesting.

 

Geez, 23f! Best of luck to you. That'll really test your A. cunninghamiana. 

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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On 1/1/2018, 11:04:43, Sandy Loam said:

Only slightly off-topic:  I can't vouch for any of the science behind these theories, but apparently the experts agree that we are about to enter a "solar minimum" (for about eleven years), which will cause Europe and North America to experience colder winters over the next decade or so.  What the scientists do not agree on is whether the new "solar minimum" will reverse global warming.  The following study says that it won't:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-minimum-could-bring-cold-winters-to-europe-and-us-but-would-not-hold-off-climate-change

However, a new study was in the press this past week which argued that the new "solar minimum" will halt global warming, at least until we re-enter a "solar maximum" again in the early 2030s.  (The earth is at the end of a "solar maximum" now) 

In short, the northern hemisphere should brace itself for several colder winters ahead. 

We're supposed to be getting a low of 28 tonight here in northern Florida, and I don't think tomorrow's high will even breach the 50s!  It may even get colder later this week too, although the forecast could still be revised between now and then.      

So, 2010 cold event and 1989 were both during solar maximums?

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Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

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Possibly.  I don't know. Maybe someone else on PalmTalk does.

What I do know is that northern Florida has not had any flakes of snow since 1989, but supposedly it is happening right now in real time, according to the weather radar I just watched (I am not there right now).  According to that radar, Tallahassee is experiencing freezing rain/ice right now, and the west side of Gainesville is experiencing snow, although the temperature remains slightly warmer than freezing.  Jacksonville is apparently only receiving cold rain.

 

It's crazy.  This article, linked below, explains how fluke pressure systems have converged and are draining the cold air out of the Arctic, Greenland and Siberia, and are sucking it down onto the east of North America.  It's unbelievable:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/02/monster-storm-to-blast-east-coast-before-polar-vortex-uncorks-tremendous-cold-late-this-week/?utm_term=.cb0ba8cb6c22

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14 minutes ago, Sandy Loam said:

Possibly.  I don't know. Maybe someone else on PalmTalk does.

What I do know is that northern Florida has not had any flakes of snow since 1989, but supposedly it is happening right now in real time, according to the weather radar I just watched (I am not there right now).  According to that radar, Tallahassee is experiencing freezing rain/ice right now, and the west side of Gainesville is experiencing snow, although the temperature remains slightly warmer than freezing.  Jacksonville is apparently only receiving cold rain.

 

It's crazy.  This article, linked below, explains how fluke pressure systems have converged and are draining the cold air out of the Arctic, Greenland and Siberia, and are sucking it down onto the east of North America.  It's unbelievable:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/02/monster-storm-to-blast-east-coast-before-polar-vortex-uncorks-tremendous-cold-late-this-week/?utm_term=.cb0ba8cb6c22

I'm not sure about that 1989 thing. Flurries in Orlando in like 2008 or something. And something in my brain says snow in parts of the panhandle more recently than 30 years ago.

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Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

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That could very well be. An article in the Tallahassee Democrat (newspaper) from yesterday said no snow since 1989, but that might not include a minor flurry.

Apparently I was mistaken in my post above. The radar was showing snow just west and northwest of Gainesville, but perhaps not right in Gainesville. In any case, whatever happened will be a surprise to everyone up there.  The schools are closed up there right now due to these inclement weather conditions: basically, cold rain, but there were fears of ice.  I think they actually might have seen icy conditions further north in Lake City, Live Oak and Tallahassee --- and, of course across the border in Georgia.

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Looks like Jacksonville had a lot of icy rain and Tallahassee received a measurable amount of snow this morning.

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I remember seeing a photo a few years back of a “Welcome to Florida” sign along I10 in the Panhandle with a caption indicating 1” accumulation, so snow way up there is rare but not unheard of.

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Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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A friend in Tallahassee told me that they had flurries for eight minutes this morning, but the snow was melted within ten minutes.  Wow. This is why Tallahassee is a Butia and Sabal town.

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26 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Blizzard!!! ^_^

 

snow.PNG

Wasn't this taken in 2010?.. might be wrong, anyway.. Vividly recall greeting both sleet and snowflakes while pulling into a job site at work during that cold spell. Found it ironic that I'd never seen snow - aside from up in the hills - growing up in California,  yet see it within 3 months of moving to Florida the first time..

Mind you this was just north of Clearwater, pretty close to the beach. My co-workers who commuted to Largo from where they lived in Pasco County, weren't as surprised.  ...Weird stuff happens.

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2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Wasn't this taken in 2010?.. might be wrong, anyway.. Vividly recall greeting both sleet and snowflakes while pulling into a job site at work during that cold spell. Found it ironic that I'd never seen snow - aside from up in the hills - growing up in California,  yet see it within 3 months of moving to Florida the first time..

Mind you this was just north of Clearwater, pretty close to the beach. My co-workers who commuted to Largo from where they lived in Pasco County, weren't as surprised.  ...Weird stuff happens.

Nope, this was taken today by Mike from Spaghetti models. He took his daughter up there to see the snow.

Edited by Palmaceae
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Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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12 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

Nope, this was taken today by Mike from Spaghetti models. He took his daughter up there to see the snow.

Ahhhh, thanks.. 

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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That just seems crazy at 30 degrees N latitude.  I truly wonder if there is any place on earth, other than Florida and Texas, where artic air gets pushed so incredibly far south from the north pole during these freak cold events.  If you look at a physical map of the world, I don't see any other places which don't have at least some sort of mountain ranges impeding cold air from travelling so far south.  Argentina has a massive ocean protecting it from Antarctica, as do Africa and Australia.  Europe doesn't extend very far south anyway, so it doesn't really count.  North Africa is protected by the Mediterranean Sea.  The Arabian Peninsula has mountain ranges north of it and it also is surrounded by water on 3 1/2 sides.  India has huge mountain ranges to the north, protecting it.  China also has a few mountain ranges (varying heights) in its northern regions, but I thought I had read somewhere that a China winter is colder than it is supposed to be (the opposite of Europe).  Having said this, I would be surprised to hear about arctic air ever covering Hainan, the touristy island at the southern tip of China, facing Vietnam.  Hainan's largest city, Haikou, is at 20 N latitude whereas Key West, Florida, is at 24 Latitude (not so different), and yet has anyone ever heard of cold air reaching Haikou?  ...or even Hong Kong?  

Key West may be a bad example because it never gets very cold there, but Florida can certainly get quite cold in its range between 27 N and 30 N latitude, at least during these rare weather events.  It would seem that Texas, also, can get very cold from 27 N latitude northwards, although not so much around Brownsville, Texas at 25 N. 

Someone made this point in another thread.  There really is no big mountain range to protect Texas and Florida from arctic air when pressure systems push it southward.  The Appalachians are not very tall mountains and it is more of a north-to-south range anyway (and, of course, Texas is too far east to benefit from the Appalachians). 

Are the presence (or lack) of mountains really a factor?              

   

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@Sandy Loam The lack of an East/West mountain range, and the fact that land extends up so far are the big reasons why North America is colder at low latitudes than other places.  100% Correct.  If Canada was ocean or there was a mountain range west to east, we'd probably be growing breadfruit LOL.

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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North Florida is just extensions of Georgia and Alabama. There is a line running from Titusville to the other side of the peninsula below which the climate is considered "peninsular" i.e. distinctly Floridian.

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On 1/3/2018, 4:56:24, Sandy Loam said:
29 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

North Florida is just extensions of Georgia and Alabama. There is a line running from Titusville to the other side of the peninsula below which the climate is considered "peninsular" i.e. distinctly Floridian.

lack of any east-west oriented mountains  laid out across the Northern border (esp. a really tall range) is certainly part of it.

Another thing is the difference between the two hemispheres. A big part of the reason ours experiences more amplified jet stream patterns is because of how many obstacles there are as air masses move around the globe compared to South of the Equator.  Ie:  Several Continents, Mountain ranges Vs. mostly open ocean.

Regarding mountains, they are a big reason tropical flora/ fauna extend further north in mainland N.W. Mexico compared to places further east at the same general latitude. Still,  While places like Los Mochis and Culiacan ( Sinaloa, Mex.) are fairly warm, both places have experienced bad freezes in the past. Thinking parts of the Yucatan / Mexican east coast don't always escape the worst cold episodes either.

Its one reason some really cool plants from that region can survive in places like the Pac. Northwest, colder parts of Texas, and the Southeast. 

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11 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

China also has a few mountain ranges (varying heights) in its northern regions, but I thought I had read somewhere that a China winter is colder than it is supposed to be (the opposite of Europe).  Having said this, I would be surprised to hear about arctic air ever covering Hainan, the touristy island at the southern tip of China, facing Vietnam.  Hainan's largest city, Haikou, is at 20 N latitude whereas Key West, Florida, is at 24 Latitude (not so different), and yet has anyone ever heard of cold air reaching Haikou?  ...or even Hong Kong?  

Key West may be a bad example because it never gets very cold there, but Florida can certainly get quite cold in its range between 27 N and 30 N latitude, at least during these rare weather events.  It would seem that Texas, also, can get very cold from 27 N latitude northwards, although not so much around Brownsville, Texas at 25 N. 

Hong Kong dropped to 3.1C/~37F in January of 2016: Polar vortex hits Hong Kong. The same event also led to snowfall in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Hanoi, Vietnam (21 N) recorded a low of 41F. Couldn't find lows for Hainan but highly doubt the island was spared considering the cold managed to affect places as far south as Bangkok. Winter average temperatures in southern China are also much cooler; Hong Kong at 22 N does not meet the monthly mean temperature requirement (64.4F) for a tropical climate...Haikou at 20 N also falls just short. Sanya (at the southern tip of Hainan) is comfortably tropical with a January mean temperature ~71F, benefiting from the protection of mountains to its north. 

Texas gets very cold. Brownsville has a record low temperature of 12F set in 1899. In the 1989 freeze, it dropped to 16F. Tampico, Mexico (22 N) recorded 32F. So the coconut kill line would've been much farther south than you'd imagine.  
 

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Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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10 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Regarding mountains, they are a big reason tropical flora/ fauna extend further north in mainland N.W. Mexico compared to places further east at the same general latitude.

I was thinking of Guaymas-San Carlos, Mexico (Sonora) because it has a tropical-meets-desert climate, but if you move your finger directly east to the opposite coast of the same peninsula, you end up in Corpus Christi, Texas (and, in fact, Corpus is slightly farther south).  Yet winters in Guaymas-San Carlos are much warmer than winters in Corpus Christ, aren't they?  Maybe this isn't a good example, but I see your point. 

Basically, we just didn't luck out in the eastern half of the North American continent.

None of us may be experts, but these are all very interesting observations as regards the weather this week.

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On 1/3/2018, 4:56:24, Sandy Loam said:

 

Sandy Loam, 

You are correct. I'e done the same thing ( comparing various places at the same lat. across the region)

Compared to the border areas, as well as our section of it here in AZ, the southern section of the Sonoran Desert/ Sonora, Mex. including Guaymas and San Carlos are what you would consider warmer and more close to tropical. Believe the current, most northerly seen Coconuts start there, or somewhere near Bahia Kino, just north of San Carlos. Anyhow,

Those areas are where Sonoran desert eco- regions like true, subtropical Cacti/ Thorn-scrub, and Dry ( Deciduous) tropical forests are said to reach their current northern boundries, if not scooting that line a bit further north as Hermosillo and Benjamin Hill,  sprinkled here and there on ideal slopes/ positions closer to the foot of the Sierra Madre Occidental. 

Further inland, there are fingers of the same general habitats which extend north along canyon bottoms almost to the AZ/NM/Mex. borders, near where the Jaguar Reserve is located. Anyhow, that is definately a result of the mountains blocking alot or all of any arctic air that might seep down from up north. 

The reason I'd used those cities in Sinaloa as example is that is where you start to see alot more tropical stuff that stays evergreen year round (compared to points just a tad north that have a very distinct wet/ dry season), and ofcourse, more actual rainfall, esp. during the summer which would feel more Florida-like to most people visiting. 

Another thing I'd forgot to add regarding how cold air masses effect the west differently is the cold air itself. Cold air is like cold water.. it wants to find the lowest place to pool/ settle. Out here, the mountains/ basins force any cold air to flow downhill toward the ocean.. one reason for the Santa Anna's in S. Cal.

If that push of air isn' deep enough / lacks sustainability, it fades out/ has warmed some extant by the time it makes it over the Rim here, or the mountains encircling L.A. To get a serious cold spell here, that airmass has to be really deep/ dense and shoved down the Great Basin/ Central Valley in CA., with nothing in the way that might deflect the coldest air east before it gets here.

N.W. Mexico come into play when the same dense cold air mass is strong enough to scream down the Colorado River Valley, and fan out over the Gulf of CA.

Back east, as everyone knows, there isn't much to stop these air masses from rolling down the Plains and out into the G.O.M., let alone getting pushed east. Agree with you that a big portion of the continent got the short end of the stick as far as weather- prone terrain is concerned..

@Kinsyjr idea about if there were an ocean where most of Canada is makes sense, though I'm not sure how much it might moderate.. Guess it would depend on how much it disconnected the U.S. portion of N. America from the Arctic.

Also agree that studying the overall hows and whys this year has been interesting.. Truth is, no matter what you have learned, there is always something new to study. 

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@Silas_Sancona, Australia terminates as ocean in the southerly latitudes where the corresponding northern parallels are at the US-Canadian border. So the US may moderate quite a bit if Canada was replaced with ocean, perhaps more than Australia since there is no landmass at the Arctic Circle.

Edited by AnTonY
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This may be a very telling cold front.   We had 6 nights in a row below freezing and probably 50-60 hours cumulative below freezing and one night near 20 degrees, yet I have seen worse immediately visible damage than in previous freezes.

Why?  Unlike nearly all Gulf Coast freezes this one came in dry.  Probably no hard ice in the crowns.  I have several small potted L. chinensis that say under the eave of the house showing no damage at all.  If you notice west coast zone 9a is always hardier than SE Zone 9a.  Many think that is due to humidity, but I think it is the very nature of our cold fronts, which are almost always preceded by heavy rain.   When the freeze hits the crowns are full of water, and thus ice.   Not the case this time, at least in Louisiana.   We'll know when the heat hits, but at least at this point, I am enthusiastic.  Now about my last B. alfredii, not so enthusiastic, lol.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Unlike Louisiana, Keith, our recent freeze in Florida was a wet one. It poured rain before the temperatures plunged.

My coldest night was 27 degrees and it turns out (from my backyard thermometer records) that I didn't reach freezing on the first or last night of this cold event (34 the last night). Despite this, I have more plant damage now than I have had in the past when temperatures were colder.  I don't know whether the damage is attributable to the rain, the duration of the freeze, or the three consecutive nights. I have never seen my palm fronds bronzed at 27 degrees before, even those with no canopy at all.  Quite a few of them are bronzed now.

Even my crinum Queen Emma has flopped.  That hasn't happened since the big 2010 freeze.  This should not happen after two nights in the low 30s and a night of 27 F.  I am dumbfounded.

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On 1/8/2018, 3:35:15, AnTonY said:

@Silas_Sancona, Australia terminates as ocean in the southerly latitudes where the corresponding northern parallels are at the US-Canadian border. So the US may moderate quite a bit if Canada was replaced with ocean, perhaps more than Australia since there is no landmass at the Arctic Circle.

The southern coastline of Australia is a lot further from the Antarctic Circle than the US-Canadian border is from the Arctic Circle. Tasmania has negligible effect as it's a small island which still doesn't get down that far south, although it does go a long way below the main continent. The other consideration is that in winter apart from the US having no moderating water to the north there's also the Siberian land mass and adjacent Arctic ice mass which affects the area. Australia has the Southern, Indian and Atlantic Oceans to moderate what comes in from the south west.

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