Possible Florida Freeze - December

[IHB1979]

It's that time of year again, crazy how time flies. My coastal city just finished removing Hurricane Matthew debris (vegetation & fences) from my area this week and now we are talking about old man winter. This is a week out so can't take it too seriously, but it's good to be prepared.

Saturday morning, December 10th looks like our first shot at much colder weather. Especially for north Florida.

[Yunder Wækraus]

1 hour ago, IHB1979 said:

It's that time of year again, crazy how time flies. My coastal city just finished removing Hurricane Matthew debris (vegetation & fences) from my area this week and now we are talking about old man winter. This is a week out so can't take it too seriously, but it's good to be prepared.

Saturday morning, December 10th looks like our first shot at much colder weather. Especially for north Florida.

What does the map say for our island? 

[IHB1979]

Our forecast low is 49 for this event. 

[Alan_Tampa]

I trust the extended forecast about as much as I trust a fart.

Can get way worse, or nothing happens. Beware the full moon! (Seriously)

[IHB1979]

51 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

I trust the extended forecast about as much as I trust a fart.

Can get way worse, or nothing happens. Beware the full moon! (Seriously)

Alan, the thread is about being prepared of the possibility, not so much the outcome. The last few years we have had a monthly dedicated thread for cold weather events in Florida during the winter months. It's a place where we can talk about our forecast, report our lows after the event and discuss microclimates during these events. 

[Alan_Tampa]

Hence the full moon warning. Was being snarky, not mean. Sorry.

[Yunder Wækraus]

2 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

Our forecast low is 49 for this event. 

I can deal with that :-)

[IHB1979]

55 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

Hence the full moon warning. Was being snarky, not mean. Sorry.

No worries! 

[RedRabbit]

It looks like they've revised the temperatures lower since I checked last, now 37f is forecasted for next Saturday morningin my area. This cold front is worth keeping an eye on, I think those of you who benefit from a maritime influence will be fine since the water is still warm, but those of us without that advantage could indeed see a freeze.

Edited December 2, 2016 by RedRabbit

[PalmatierMeg]

The morning of 12/10 forecast here to be 42F. That's long term of course and subject to change.

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

Forecast here for next Friday 12/10 is 45. I can live with that.

Edited December 3, 2016 by Cocoa Beach Jason

[cm05]

Funny how the same event is threatening NYC with its first freeze as well. The forecast is in the 29-31F range for 12/10.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

12/8 we are forcasted to dip down to 27 so that will be my first freeze from the looks of it.  It was a good run while it lasted. 

[Silas_Sancona]

11 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

Alan, the thread is about being prepared of the possibility, not so much the outcome. The last few years we have had a monthly dedicated thread for cold weather events in Florida during the winter months. It's a place where we can talk about our forecast, report our lows after the event and discuss microclimates during these events. 

Agree with you 100%.

While the outcome of any forecasted/suggested weather event is only realized once it actually happens,  if.. it happens, posting a "heads up" type of thread provides a valuable resource to everyone who may be effected by such a threat, giving those who might be effected some extra time to prepare. If, in the end, the worst case scenario doesn't come to pass.. at least you weren't caught off guard.

Beyond that, over time, the knowledge gained by sharing all the threads/posts regarding how cold/hot  it actually got during any such event serves to expand upon basic knowledge of a species given tolerance under such extremes. We all know plenty of cases where someone may have been told " x species of palm/etc will be killed at x temperature" only to see that it fared better than suggested. Such an example can swing the opposite direction as well which is another reason such posts help the forum as a whole understand the benefits, or possible drawbacks of a particular micro climate in our yard, neighborhood or part of the country. 

In regards to any forecast, keep your eyes open.. but always take longer range suggestions lightly.. until what was suggested is fairly certain. Our own forecast has swung wildly over that past week.. the potential artic blast that had a couple days next week diving into the 20s now looks to stay north and get swept east into the Plains before dropping the coldest air south out of the Rockies. Forecasted lows for both Wednesday and Thursday morning next week had dipped to 23f and 27f at one point, only to rebound to a much less alarming couple mornings in the mid/upper 30s or so, which isn't all that abnormal for both December and January here. Yes, it could change again which is why I have everything ready.. even if I won't need to provide more than just shelter under a plastic wrapped patio for a few weeks. 

Cold, heat, rain, and drought ..Keep discussing your observations  

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by Silas_Sancona

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

Today my three different weather apps are predicting 42, 44, and 46 respectively for the 10th. I guess the true low could change dramatically if this cold front drifts a slight bit to the east. 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Our forecast keeps getting lower and lower too.  Now Wednesday low is 28 and Thursday is 26.  Already colder than all of last year....

[RedRabbit]

17 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Our forecast keeps getting lower and lower too.  Now Wednesday low is 28 and Thursday is 26.  Already colder than all of last year....

Same here, it looks like they revised it down to 35f now. 

[Alan_Tampa]

You should also look at forecast for the 14th. It's a full moon and shows a strong dip in forecast from accuweather.  Beware the ides of December. 

If I weren't on mobile I'd explain more, but if you look back at really bad radiational freezes, there was probably a full moon, or close to it. 

On tthat note, there isn't that much snow cover to the north right now, a good sign.

[Bill H2DB]

   Freeze is certainly possible at this time in December .

I remember the freeze of 1962 very well . 

 

December in Daytona Beach by Bill H, on Flickr

 

 

[Alan_Tampa]

1962 was a bad year. Changed the citrus industry completely! 1958 was crumby too, but 1962 finished the job it started!

[Bill H2DB]

  I , an 18yr old , had just moved into a new house with my family , and I had planted a fair amount of stuff , including a couple

of small citrus trees , and a Royal Palm etc , and they all were fried .

   At the time also , there was a goodly amount of citrus grown here in Volusia County , maybe about 10,000 acres in total , and that was badly damaged of course .

The method of grove heating at the time was a combo of   " grove heaters - salamanders " that burned used motor oil and whatever heavy oils that would ignite , and I remember that grove owners were also gathering up used tires to burn in piles to make whatever heat that  they could . The air was thick with smoke . I later made a good amount of money by cutting and hauling dead vegetation from peoples yards around town .

Here's a good wrap up .:

http://fshs.org/proceedings-o/1963-vol-76/62-69%20(JOHNSON).pdf

 

[Alan_Tampa]

Awesome that you posted an article from the Florida State Horticulture society, I have some dating as far back as 1944, with an article by David Fairchild no less! They are fantastic sources for practical information. Lots of cold damage, cold protection articles.  

Not always palmy, but lots of fruit tree info

 And since I grow "outside" of my zone, very useful to me!

[gsytch]

Great reading about 1962. Thanks!   My local forecast has only lower 40'sF for Friday night/Sat AM with a quick warmup into the 70sf by Sunday. Nothing but a quick cold snap. Today was beautiful. I reached 82F under breezy, sunny skies and even a dewpioint that hit 67F. Rain Rain Rain is forecast Tuesday,perhaps 60%. We need like massive amounts of rain! 

[_Keith]

So far, looks like 29 and 29 consecutive lows this week, so no doubt the Florida panhandle will be hit.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

On 12/3/2016, 7:46:54, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Our forecast keeps getting lower and lower too.  Now Wednesday low is 28 and Thursday is 26.  Already colder than all of last year....

Forecast has improved for us. Wednesday 32, Thursday 27 friday 34. 

[SubTropicRay]

The "arctic" front appears to have lessening impacts as the days progress.  That's a welcome change from what typically happens. 

[_Keith]

Seems to be easing here, now 33 first night, 32 second night.  By Sunday our highs are project back to the low to mid 70s.

[PalmatierMeg]

Temp is moderating for me too. Low Sat. morn is forecast to be 50F. Yesssssss.

[RedRabbit]

Forecast is all the way up to 44f from 35f! 

[cm05]

My NWS forecast was actually lowered to 28 for both nights. AccuWeather still showing 30's however. We'll see.

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

Forecast now 56 here. Liking the trend.

[_Keith]

Lows of 32 and 32 have pretty much stabilized here now.  Showing warmer both west in Houston and East in Pensacola, so as is not unusual we are dead center in the tip of the dip.

[Alicehunter2000]

yeh...my low moved up to 33 for early Fri. morning....maybe it won't freeze.

[Palmaceae]

The cold air does not look like it is moving very far south in Florida for this event, we are forecasted to be in the low 50's.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

34 28 then 36 forecasted lows now.  Much better than a week ago, but will still be our first freeze unless something changes. 

[PalmTreeDude]

It looks like like South Floeida will be fine.

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

On 12/6/2016, 6:40:15, Palmaceae said:

The cold air does not look like it is moving very far south in Florida for this event, we are forecasted to be in the low 50's.

Yup. 59. Almost a nonevent.

[_Keith]

Up to 35/36 here now.  A non-event in our northern gulf coast climate.   Danged weather service, sensationalizing like the rest of the news.

 

[nitsua0895]

Still 28F and 27F in Montgomery but it's better than 23F that was forecasted a few days ago. 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

28.6 at 2:55 was the lowest at the house. Already back up to 30 and climbing.