Future USDA Map

[Hombre de Palmas]

16 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

What makes you think they will have it this year?

They are updating the climate normals this year.

They may not update the zone map, my bad.

[Aceraceae]

The 2012 USDA map goes by 1975 2005 data anyway. So a 2020 or 2021 map would be half new years and cutting off a lot of cold in the late seventies and eighties. 

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Tampa/extreme-annual-tampa-low-temperature.php 

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-low-temperature.php

Zone 10 all central FL. 

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Miami/extreme-annual-miami-low-temperature.php

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Fort-Lauderdale/extreme-annual-fort-lauderdale-low-temperature.php

Miami and ftl zone 11.  11b Miami Beach. 

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Key-West/extreme-annual-key-west-low-temperature.php

 Key West would be on the edge of 12a. 

http://joedorishweather.blogspot.com/2016/09/record-hottest-and-coldest-weather_61.html

 Since frost begins happening in many locations at reported temps around 40°, 

 Miami Beach was certainly not frost free. 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Aceraceae

[Aceraceae]

New USDA state maps are coming out now on Wikimedia Commons. They use C temperate climate -3 Celsius isotherm for coldest month. So a lot of Dfa is gone and replaced by Cfa. 

New plant maps can be inferred somewhat from these (zone 7 = Cfa in east US) and from lowest temperature each year charts available for all big cities. 

[Silas_Sancona]

8 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

New USDA state maps are coming out now on Wikimedia Commons. They use C temperate climate -3 Celsius isotherm for coldest month. So a lot of Dfa is gone and replaced by Cfa. 

New plant maps can be inferred somewhat from these (zone 7 = Cfa in east US) and from lowest temperature each year charts available for all big cities. 

Link(s)?

[Aceraceae]

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:ListFiles/Icy98&ilshowall=1

These are user generated on computer programs using PRISM data. Not original research. 

In 2016 a user named Redtitan or Adam Peterson uploaded a bunch of maps that also showed a lot of Cfa and used the -3 isotherm. 

It eliminates a lot of Dfa and makes Cfa a bit too large in the US. (the Orlando NYC having same climate type thing)

Edited December 31, 2021 by Aceraceae

[Aceraceae]

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Köppen_Climate_Types_US.png

 

[Aceraceae]

See how Dfa disappears in the humid east vs the central plains where it's extremely continental allowing a broad very cold winter but still hot summer band. 

Also Florida has a little more tropical on the west coast (a second coastal curve) and the east coast curve advanced slightly, more noticeable on the

Florida state map (coastal Port St. Lucie etc)

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Aceraceae
image

[Aceraceae]

Southwest Florida coast seems a bit underdone as it seems Lee County should have some tropical, at least according to cape coral/page field fort myers data. A surprising amount of Florida is 1-2 January degrees Celsius away from 64 all the way to Sarasota and Orlando and the space coast. On the east coast, almost every town on US1 and A1A at least has some coconut palms on the main intersections up to just below the space coast. 

[Jimbean]

9 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

Southwest Florida coast seems a bit underdone as it seems Lee County should have some tropical, at least according to cape coral/page field fort myers data. A surprising amount of Florida is 1-2 January degrees Celsius away from 64 all the way to Sarasota and Orlando and the space coast. On the east coast, almost every town on US1 and A1A at least has some coconut palms on the main intersections up to just below the space coast. 

I noticed that when I was doing detailed temperature gathering for Patrick AFB and Melbourne.  Patrick AFB is very close to the Koppen definition of tropical, but just barely misses it.  Melbourne is pretty close too. 

Pre 2010 coconuts can be seen as far north along US-1 to the Pineda Causeway, which is roughly the boundary between Melbourne and Suntree. 

On A1A, pre 2010 coconuts are very common all the way up to Port Canaveral. 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Jimbean

[Aceraceae]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I noticed that when I was doing detailed temperature gathering for Patrick AFB and Melbourne.  Patrick AFB is very close to the Koppen definition of tropical, but just barely misses it.  Melbourne is pretty close too. 

There are dots of A(x) climate seen above the subtropical line. It might be that if a station here and there passed the temp requirement but was surrounded by failing (more rural) stations, the map coloration was weighted against it. But really in the case of an urban coastline, it should be shaded from the airport/city station to the coast more. 

Pretty sure all the Lee County coast should be tropical including the barrier islands (Pine Sanibel etc)

[Jimbean]

16 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

There are dots of A(x) climate seen above the subtropical line. It might be that if a station here and there passed the temp requirement but was surrounded by failing (more rural) stations, the map coloration was weighted against it. But really in the case of an urban coastline, it should be shaded from the airport/city station to the coast more. 

Pretty sure all the Lee County coast should be tropical including the barrier islands (Pine Sanibel etc)

I have had some ideas about making a map that is more accurate for Florida.  I'm thinking of creating an index and run isotherm index lines across the state as a better measure of what grows where. 

[Aceraceae]

There's expected to be a horseshoe and then a circle around the Lake Wales Ridge from Palmdale/Archbold/Venus to Lake Wales in future USDA predictions such as this one. 

The U shape is already seen in the Koppen map, and really is already more pronounced than that along the west coast. 

 

 in future USDA predictions such as this one. 

[Aceraceae]

Approximate tropical/zone 10 line turns into a curve following I-4 to north of Tampa along the coast. 

South Texas turns to zone 11 but still with the possibility of below 20 temps more so than Central let alone southern Florida. 

Pretty sure the same cold snap as texas february 2021 moved over would not have produced the same temp/latitude correlation and that it might be a good idea to make a more US-specific maps such as splitting up Cfa to decipher NYC and Kansas from central and north florida climate type. 

Maybe for hardiness zone there could be an A/B/C system used instead to designate all time and decadal extreme lows vs denoting 5 degree annual lows with a/b. 

This would change both the Koppen/Geiger type to Continental subtropical for the plains and northeast and change the plant hardiness to 9A for Texas and Oklahoma but 9B or C for northern and central Florida. 

[Jimbean]

46 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

Approximate tropical/zone 10 line turns into a curve following I-4 to north of Tampa along the coast. 

South Texas turns to zone 11 but still with the possibility of below 20 temps more so than Central let alone southern Florida. 

Pretty sure the same cold snap as texas february 2021 moved over would not have produced the same temp/latitude correlation and that it might be a good idea to make a more US-specific maps such as splitting up Cfa to decipher NYC and Kansas from central and north florida climate type. 

Maybe for hardiness zone there could be an A/B/C system used instead to designate all time and decadal extreme lows vs denoting 5 degree annual lows with a/b. 

This would change both the Koppen/Geiger type to Continental subtropical for the plains and northeast and change the plant hardiness to 9A for Texas and Oklahoma but 9B or C for northern and central Florida. 

This is part of the problem with 'zones.'  It is a subjective classification on what kind of climate to expect; these zone models are projections. 

These zone maps do not illustrate transition zones, which is especially true for Koppen climate classification, whereas much of south central and east central Florida is really a transition between Koppen tropical zones and humid subtropical zones.

Another problem with these classifications is the lack of consideration that climate really does change, thus these are 'dead' maps and not 'living' maps. 

[Jimbean]

8 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

This is part of the problem with 'zones.'  It is a subjective classification on what kind of climate to expect; these zone models are projections. 

These zone maps do not illustrate transition zones, which is especially true for Koppen climate classification, whereas much of south central and east central Florida is really a transition between Koppen tropical zones and humid subtropical zones.

Another problem with these classifications is the lack of consideration that climate really does change, thus these are 'dead' maps and not 'living' maps. 

In my opinion, we need an index, whereas the record low carries the most weight, then average monthly winter temperature, then average annual low.  Also a color scheme for macro-climate zones, such as tropical, temperate, subtropical, desert, etc. 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Jimbean

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

South Texas turns to zone 11 but still with the possibility of below 20 temps more so than Central let alone southern Florida. 

Pretty sure the same cold snap as texas february 2021 moved over would not have produced the same temp/latitude correlation and that it might be a good idea to make a more US-specific maps such as splitting up Cfa to decipher NYC and Kansas from central and north florida climate type. 

The futurecast shows expansion of zone 10 in southern Texas into what is now zone 9.  Nothing about zone 11 as there is no zone 11 in Texas. 

Don't really see the rationale for differentiating Texas from north/north central Florida either. You need to get 1/3 of the way down the peninsula around Daytona to start seeing significant divergence in record lows at equivalent latitude. The area moderated by Galveston Bay is warmer than the equivalent latitude on the Gulf Coast of Florida.

[Aceraceae]

zone 11 wasn't colorized but it's below the dark red zone 10 on the map in both TX and SFL. miami/beach and even FTL are zone 11 now going by last 30 years. 

So is part of San Diego. 

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

zone 11 wasn't colorized but it's below the dark red zone 10 on the map in both TX and SFL. miami/beach and even FTL are zone 11 now going by last 30 years. 

So is part of San Diego. 

Unless I'm reading the maps wrong, that's not what is being shown. The maps show an expansion of zone 10 in Texas with the southernmost SE tip around Brownsville-South Padre remaining zone 10 (no change) on both maps. 

Not seeing how the maps show zone 11 in the areas you mentioned either, both are grey (no change). Though the coastal strip along Miami and Broward, perhaps even Palm Beach at the immediate coast qualifies. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Xenon

[Aceraceae]

The map key doesn't include zones 11 to 13. Miami Beach has qualified as 11 for a while and the lower keys are 11b to 12a Key West, so they just didn't bother showing anything over 10. 

Actually, adding to the confusion, not all the area would be zone 11, but it should definitely be on the map for some of the area of southern FL if not at least SPI in Texas. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Aceraceae

[Xenon]

51 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

so they just didn't bother showing anything over 10. 

Actually, adding to the confusion, not all the area would be zone 11, but it should definitely be on the map for some of the area of southern FL if not at least SPI in Texas. 

Source? Or is this just conjecture? Are we still talking about the projections from NOAA? 

Miami Beach is already shown as zone 11a in the most recent map from USDA in 2012. 

SPI doesn't qualify as zone 11, not even close. It averages in the 35-37F range. 

[Aceraceae]

16 minutes ago, Xenon said:

 

Miami Beach is already shown as zone 11a in the most recent map from USDA in 2012. 

 

 

[EJ NJ]

People keep saying that Newark is zone 6 or 7 but the coldest weather I recorded last winter was 14F -9C which is the end of zone 8B!

[EJ NJ]

On 12/31/2021 at 12:35 PM, Aceraceae said:

There's expected to be a horseshoe and then a circle around the Lake Wales Ridge from Palmdale/Archbold/Venus to Lake Wales in future USDA predictions such as this one. 

The U shape is already seen in the Koppen map, and really is already more pronounced than that along the west coast. 

 

 in future USDA predictions such as this one. 

looks more accurate to today's temperatures! 

[palmsOrl]

On 12/30/2021 at 10:47 PM, Aceraceae said:

See how Dfa disappears in the humid east vs the central plains where it's extremely continental allowing a broad very cold winter but still hot summer band. 

Also Florida has a little more tropical on the west coast (a second coastal curve) and the east coast curve advanced slightly, more noticeable on the

Florida state map (coastal Port St. Lucie etc)

 

I think the tropical savannah climate should be extended a bit north along the SW coast to roughly Captiva and Fort Myers right on the coast and I still question (at best) that coastal band of tropical rainforest climate from Fort Lauderdale to right into the SE tip of Saint Lucie County.  While this area looks a lot more lush than surrounding areas, in my opinion the annual average rainfall is not sufficient to classify it as tropical rainforest.  Note, an area can have a tropical rainforest climate while not supporting an actual rainforest due to factors like topography and soil type, etc.  I just don't think that there is anywhere in South Florida that classifies as a tropical rainforest climate.  The most lush forest environment I have seen in the state is the forest immediately surrounding the Caverns State Park near Marianna, FL and this is temperate forest with almost all temperate flora species.

[Aceraceae]

Yes tropical rainforest climate (Koppen Af as in tropical af) should refer to more ultratropical locations only, as it is also known as the low elevation equatorial climate, which Palm Beach and Port St. Lucie are not. Basically FTL to PSL barely meet the winter precip min of 60 mm per month. Miami Beach also comes very close even though it has less summer precip than most of miami/SFL. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Aceraceae

[Aceraceae]

On 1/9/2022 at 12:06 PM, EJ NJ said:

People keep saying that Newark is zone 6 or 7 but the coldest weather I recorded last winter was 14F -9C which is the end of zone 8B!

Last year was hot in the US and the winter very mild. That can't be counted on. There was a string of mild NE winters in the late 90s and 2000s, as well between late 2015 until 2018 more recently. That cannot be counted on in a volatile continental climate. Even if it is subtropical continental. 

[Aceraceae]

Looking very closely, the east coast tropical (rainforest Af) goes up to the St. Lucie River and Jensen Beach but not Port St Lucie as the St Lucie/Fort Pierce airport is still a degree C too cold in January for the 18 C requirement. Using only the past 15 years' data it's only a degree F short of 64. 

[Teegurr]

On 1/9/2022 at 11:06 AM, EJ NJ said:

People keep saying that Newark is zone 6 or 7 but the coldest weather I recorded last winter was 14F -9C which is the end of zone 8B!

Newark is 7b

[Jimbean]

1 hour ago, Aceraceae said:

Looking very closely, the east coast tropical (rainforest Af) goes up to the St. Lucie River and Jensen Beach but not Port St Lucie as the St Lucie/Fort Pierce airport is still a degree C too cold in January for the 18 C requirement. Using only the past 15 years' data it's only a degree F short of 64. 

If it warmed up another 1.5F it would be tropical up to Brevard by Koppen standards, probably up to Cape Canaveral/Merritt Island and Melbourne or so.  On the west coast I don't know really, probably Sanibel Island and maybe Pine Island and south Fort Myers.  I'm surprised Sanibel Island isn't already labeled 10B and Koppen tropical. 

[Aceraceae]

There is a blue dot on 

2 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

If it warmed up another 1.5F it would be tropical up to Brevard by Koppen standards, probably up to Cape Canaveral/Merritt Island and Melbourne or so.  On the west coast I don't know really, probably Sanibel Island and maybe Pine Island and south Fort Myers.  I'm surprised Sanibel Island isn't already labeled 10B and Koppen tropical. 

There are some blue dots on Sanibel/Captiva islands and around SW Florida scattered well above the solid line. What probably happened is urban stations that registered 64 F were not given and area wide color fill since rural stations represent more area. 

The smoothing could probably have been done better as some inland stations ticked tropical yet they show Cfa in between them and the coast, as if those suburbs are really colder than the inland stations that made it. 

[Jimbean]

8 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

There is a blue dot on 

There are some blue dots on Sanibel/Captiva islands and around SW Florida scattered well above the solid line. What probably happened is urban stations that registered 64 F were not given and area wide color fill since rural stations represent more area. 

The smoothing could probably have been done better as some inland stations ticked tropical yet they show Cfa in between them and the coast, as if those suburbs are really colder than the inland stations that made it. 

Yeah that looks like a data problem. 

I looked on Wikipedia and I did not see anything about how many years the averages have to extend to in order to classify as Koppen tropical. 

[kinzyjr]

On 1/9/2022 at 12:06 PM, EJ NJ said:

People keep saying that Newark is zone 6 or 7 but the coldest weather I recorded last winter was 14F -9C which is the end of zone 8B!

The USDA Hardiness Zones are based on the 30-year average annual low (AAL).

3 hours ago, Teegurr said:

Newark is 7b

The data agrees with Teegurr.  According to the NOAA data from the airport (attached for reference):

30-Year AAL: 7.23F     50-Year AAL: 5.68F     100-Year AAL: 4.69     Record Low: -13F     30-Year Min: -2F

USW00014734_NewarkLibertyIntlAir_Stats.xlsx

[EJ NJ]

12 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

The USDA Hardiness Zones are based on the 30-year average annual low (AAL).

The data agrees with Teegurr.  According to the NOAA data from the airport (attached for reference):

30-Year AAL: 7.23F     50-Year AAL: 5.68F     100-Year AAL: 4.69     Record Low: -13F     30-Year Min: -2F

USW00014734_NewarkLibertyIntlAir_Stats.xlsx 2.03 MB · 2 downloads

 with climate change its just going to get warmer!