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Potential for Florida Freeze in February


IHB1979
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The tip of the dip.  This morning we were looking at forecast low tomorrow morning of 31.   Now it is up to 36, but Pensacola is down to 33 and the tip moves west faster than expected and start to lift just a bit.  Sometime they drop instead of lift.  Houston to Florida, who get the coldest and the freeze, don't take your eyes off of any front till its done.  They change fast as the interact with the Gulf.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Looking over this mornings low, closest station to the house (W.U. Lakeside South.. i NEVER use the Airport's reading) looks to have dipped down to 39F briefly. Nice atm, about 63F but no doubt, it is downward from here for a few days. Checking all the available outlets, forecast for the week, and going into next week are all over the place with our next coldest night looking to be Saturday at or around 43F. Next Monday/Tuesday nights don't look to drop below 50F but, the jury is still out. If there is any glimmer of hope, it is this evenings the 18z GFS run.. When i checked this morning, 6z run had yet another surge of air dropping  due south around the 23rd.. For the moment.. tonight's 18z has backed off.. keeping the cold stuff further north/ shifted further east over the Mid-Atlantic.. I'm hoping this might be a hint of a pattern change. We'll see. Consistency is lacking run to run. That being said, NOAA/CPC experimental 3 week forecast has FL in "Above Average" territory Temp-wise  and ..If Bret Anderson's extended forecast holds, Last week of the month/first week in March look to be warmer here with the "stormy/wet" blob painted across north FL, and spread out across the entire Gulf Coast/Texas....Just in time for the trip back west down I10.:bemused:

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1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Looking over this mornings low, closest station to the house (W.U. Lakeside South.. i NEVER use the Airport's reading) looks to have dipped down to 39F briefly. Nice atm, about 63F but no doubt, it is downward from here for a few days. Checking all the available outlets, forecast for the week, and going into next week are all over the place with our next coldest night looking to be Saturday at or around 43F. Next Monday/Tuesday nights don't look to drop below 50F but, the jury is still out. If there is any glimmer of hope, it is this evenings the 18z GFS run.. When i checked this morning, 6z run had yet another surge of air dropping  due south around the 23rd.. For the moment.. tonight's 18z has backed off.. keeping the cold stuff further north/ shifted further east over the Mid-Atlantic.. I'm hoping this might be a hint of a pattern change. We'll see. Consistency is lacking run to run. That being said, NOAA/CPC experimental 3 week forecast has FL in "Above Average" territory Temp-wise  and ..If Bret Anderson's extended forecast holds, Last week of the month/first week in March look to be warmer here with the "stormy/wet" blob painted across north FL, and spread out across the entire Gulf Coast/Texas....Just in time for the trip back west down I10.:bemused:

Nathan,

Over here we had another chilly night, with a mild day.  Low was 41F at the airport, with a high of 71F (normal 69F/49F), and at my place a low of 44.9F, with a high of 68.5F.  I estimate the normal for my place to be 68F/52F.  Desert conditions.  We have had dew points at the airport as low as 20F yesterday, and 18F tonight, with VERY low humidity for us.  We are now at the 5th week without any significant rain.  Tonight, my place was already down to 45.6F about an hour ago.  I am afraid I am going to lose my Jamaican Tall that I planted a few weeks ago.  I know I jumped the gun planting my Coconut Palms too early, but it had been such a mild winter and we were in the midst of a warm spell.  Ironically, my second most cold hardy Coconut Palm, my Jamaica Tall looks like the one I am going to lose, while my least cold hardy one, my Yellow Malayan, though cold injured is holding on, and will probably pull through.  My Mexican Tall (most cold hardy) and my Panama Tall have very little cold injury, and my Maypan and Maymexes have a somewhat moderate amount of cold injury.

Anyway, I hope your last few weeks in the Florida coconut belt are nice and warm, and that you have a safe trip to Arizona.

John

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23 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

Houston cools down on nights with light winds typically like this:

A screen shot from this morning.

houston1.jpg.fb7a0c25ff7de571e9cf7f9ea7d

Typically downtown and east towards the Bay and then S.E. toward Galveston stays the warmest.

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

Here is another screen shot from this morning showing the typical pattern of how Houston cools when whens are light. The Galveston bay area and the city stay the warmest as one would expect.

houston2.jpg.1904a19a40565a6dbeb92f53d5b

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Nathan,

Over here we had another chilly night, with a mild day.  Low was 41F at the airport, with a high of 71F (normal 69F/49F), and at my place a low of 44.9F, with a high of 68.5F.  I estimate the normal for my place to be 68F/52F.  Desert conditions.  We have had dew points at the airport as low as 20F yesterday, and 18F tonight, with VERY low humidity for us.  We are now at the 5th week without any significant rain.  Tonight, my place was already down to 45.6F about an hour ago.  I am afraid I am going to lose my Jamaican Tall that I planted a few weeks ago.  I know I jumped the gun planting my Coconut Palms too early, but it had been such a mild winter and we were in the midst of a warm spell.  Ironically, my second most cold hardy Coconut Palm, my Jamaica Tall looks like the one I am going to lose, while my least cold hardy one, my Yellow Malayan, though cold injured is holding on, and will probably pull through.  My Mexican Tall (most cold hardy) and my Panama Tall have very little cold injury, and my Maypan and Maymexes have a somewhat moderate amount of cold injury.

Anyway, I hope your last few weeks in the Florida coconut belt are nice and warm, and that you have a safe trip to Arizona.

John

The Humidity reached 10% at Houston Hobby airport on Monday afternoon. I cannot ever remember it being that low.

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

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The latest hideous GFS numbers:

Daytona Beach  - 34, 31

Fort Myers – 37, 44 (Thu, Fri)

Gainesville – 30, 26

Jacksonville – 28, 25

Melbourne – 37, 34

Miami – 51, 46

Naples – 50, 42

Orlando – 39, 34

Panama City – 29, 35

Pensacola – 30, 40

Sarasota – 48, 40

Tallahassee – 29, 29

Tampa – 46, 39

Vero Beach – 40, 33

West Palm Beach - 45, 40

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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51 this morning, a lot warmer than the forecast 42 for my area. Here's my updated Unisys 7-day forecast. Still watching Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 

Screen%20Shot%202016-02-09%20at%208.10.5

From Monday's Forecast: 

NOAA, Unisys, WU

Monday 66/44, 65/45, 66/44 ACTUAL LOW: 45

Tuesday 65/42, 62/45, 56/43 ACTUAL LOW: 51

Wednesday 64/43, 62/42, 59/42

Thursday 57/46, 58/38, 58/49

Friday 65/53, 65/42, 67/53

Edited by IHB1979
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Ray, you have Thurs low for Sarasota at 48F vs. Ft. Myers (100 miles south) at 37F, an 11 degree difference. Is that a typo or do your sources really show that?

From what I can find, overnight Wed. to Thurs is predicted at 42F (6 degrees lower than Sarasota, still a significant difference), overnight Thurs to Fri 46F.

Overnight here was 58F. Predicted tonight: 54F

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Last night was off here too. Predicted low was 44F but it only dropped to 51. Made it to 60 today but its very windy and chilly.

 

So far NWS hasn't changed any forecasts, in fact Friday is supposed to be a bit warmer, back up to 70F.

NWS for metro Orlando;

Tues night 40F

Wed 57/38

Thurs 61/46

Fri 70/52

Sat 70/46

 

 

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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11 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

The Humidity reached 10% at Houston Hobby airport on Monday afternoon. I cannot ever remember it being that low.

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

Ed,

WOW!  That is REALLY LOW for Southeast Texas!  That is probably even low for Abilene, Texas, where I grew up, and that is an arid climate.

John

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Humidity was 32% at around 1:00am this morning.  Humidity this low in the early morning happens maybe a few times per year at most.

As chilly as this ongoing event is, I highly doubt we are looking at the lowest temperatures of the season here.

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2 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Humidity was 32% at around 1:00am this morning.  Humidity this low in the early morning happens maybe a few times per year at most.

As chilly as this ongoing event is, I highly doubt we are looking at the lowest temperatures of the season here.

Have to agree, not anticipating lows the coming night or two to drop to or lower than the 34F we have already seen here.  More and more chatter today hinting at a pattern change after next Monday/Tuesday- to warmer temps. Possibly a big storm ushering in that change as well. Winds today were gusty but nothing close to what was experienced a couple weeks prior. Actually felt warm from time to time when the sun was out and winds were down.

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It looks like it might be one of the coldest nights of the year here in Montgomery. It's 10pm and the nearest weather station is showing  35F. The forecast low is supposed to be 26F so I hope my Mule palm will be fine. I probably caused this cold snap by planting it so early haha. 

I have a thermometer that only cost a few dollars and it was reading 25F on the ground by my palm earlier but on my front porch it was near 40F. Do they usually read a lot colder when placed on the ground? 

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Nitsua, my thermometer definitely reads substantially lower when placed in the open, on or near the ground on cold nights, so it is not just yours!  25F, wow, that particular thermometer might register upper teens as a low by dawn.  Your mule palm should be fine with a brief dip to those temperatures.

With all of the wind, and chilly weather, the tropical palms and other plants in the yard are now clearly beginning to appear stressed and a bit worn out, but whatever can stick it out just 3-4 more days should be fine, as the weather should get milder thereafter.  Even my red maple has just dropped a bunch of leaves, like the cold weather suddenly signaled it to go deciduous, after being in active growth from such a warm fall.  I hope my betel nut doesn't make it to March or April, only to suddenly croak, as a delayed reaction.

I am grateful for the greenhouse, as there is no way many of the orchid species I now keep would survive days on end of windy, chilly weather with low humidity, even at night.  The Cyrtostachys renda is grateful too.

The temperatures here just after midnight are only just now starting to get below the 50F mark, so 30s do not look to be in the cards for the Orlando area tonight.

 

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Since the winds stayed up all night, it is currently 50.5F at wake up. The next few days are supposed to feature more cold, breezy conditions before a warm up over the weekend to near normal. A trough looks like it will dip into SoCal, which usually signals a warm up for us in Florida. Just hoping for spring to begin soon. <_<

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I'm pleasantly surprised that the models have not gotten progressively colder.  This is definitely not he norm but I'm happy about it.  Here goes the jinx.....I think we are done with any legitimate threats!  Freezes after the 20th of February are extremely scarce in central and south Florida and the pattern gets warmer after Sunday.

Meg, the Fort Myers 37 is for Thursday morning when Sarasota was forecasted to see 40F.  Strange but that's what the model said yesterday.

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Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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The local forecast for Cape Coral tonight is 41, hope it stays that way. The local forecast for Sarasota is 44 for tonight, strange indeed!

But the high today is forecasted to be 61 in the Cape and 59 in Sarasota, which seems normal.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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46 this morning. The lowest I've been so far this year was 37 degrees. We'll see how close we get tonight. I'm happy the last several days have been dry and not wet with these colder high daily temps. Bring on the warmer weather!

From Monday's Forecast: 

NOAA, Unisys, WU

Monday 66/44, 65/45, 66/44 ACTUAL LOW: 45

Tuesday 65/42, 62/45, 56/43 ACTUAL LOW: 51

Wednesday 64/43, 62/42, 59/42 ACTUAL LOW: 46

Thursday 57/46, 58/38, 58/49

Friday 65/53, 65/42, 67/53

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Actual low this morning: 55F (54F predicted)

Predicted high for today: 60F      Is 64 at the moment - good - and sun is shining

Predicted low: 41F    Lowest of the season so far

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Orlando is already several degrees above the predicted high temperature of 57F.  It takes a really strong cold front to keep high temperatures in the 50s here on sunny days in mid-February.  High temperatures in the 40s are almost unheard of here in February (though I am certain it has happened since records have been kept).  Our coldest morning since 1989 occurred in early February of 1996 and the high that day was 50F.

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Very strange on how the temps will look tonight in Central and SW Florida.  This is a map from our local news on the futurecast of temps at 7:00am tomorrow. You can see how north Florida is going to be warmer than parts Central and South Florida.

 

Temps.PNG

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Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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3 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Very strange on how the temps will look tonight in Central and SW Florida.  This is a map from our local news on the futurecast of temps at 7:00am tomorrow. You can see how north Florida is going to be warmer than parts Central and South Florida.

 

Temps.PNG

Maybe that's the center of high pressure.  Anyway, my low is projected to be 39F.

Brevard County, Fl

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14 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Maybe that's the center of high pressure.  Anyway, my low is projected to be 39F.

Yep, that is what was thinking.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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Despite temperatures making it to at least 60F today, they are now falling rapidly, so I think we will see upper 30s throughout the Orlando metro area with some low-mid 30s (possibly a tad lower even) well outside the city and in some of the suburbs.  The winds are forecast to be a little on the high side for really widespread frost, though a frost advisory has been issued for all of inland Central FL.  I am debating on whether to go out and cover stuff.

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44.0F already here... I'm coming to terms that my area gets cold quicker than others, what I don't get is why some locations in St. Pete seem equally as cold. :blink:

Edited by RedRabbit

Westchase | 9b,  St. Petersburg | 9b,  Laurel | 10a

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I recorded a dew point of 7 degrees (15%) on Monday. I've been combing through records and I can't find a dew point remotely close to that in the last 10 years.

On 2/9/2016, 6:29:31, Ed in Houston said:

The Humidity reached 10% at Houston Hobby airport on Monday afternoon. I cannot ever remember it being that low.

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

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Just dipped to 49F with very light breezes. Tomorrows low here at the house ranges between 39-43F depending on which weather site you check. Aside from a couple nights where temps might dip just below 50F over the next week, trend looks milder/ warmer ahead. In spite of the recent cool spell, have noticed several red maples and more and more Oaks ( Primarily Laurel) starting to leaf out again around town.

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9 hours ago, Jimbean said:

Maybe that's the center of high pressure.  Anyway, my low is projected to be 39F.

I think it's the S and SW winds ahead of the next front.

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None of the deciduous trees here are budging whatsoever yet, due to the recent chilly weather.  It is kind of nice to drive around and take in the ephemeral "FL winter scene" when the trees are collectively as bare as they are going to get, and have not been hastened into blooming and leafing out like many years by February warmth.  Many crepe myrtles and sycamores wait until March or early April here to leaf out regardless of the weather.  The red maples will pop as soon as the weather warms up.

2:45 am here, and we are looking at a mild 43F (just updated to 40F at 3:00am) at our local heat island airport, the Orlando Executive, while Orlando International is showing a more realistic 37F (up just a bit to 38F at 3:00am) and a bit further north Sanford is checking in at 37F.  In my yard the latest is 36F in the open and 37F under canopy, here in Winter Park.  Based on this, I'd say we will be looking at 31F-32F for a low, while at least one of the three area airports should reach freezing, and the Executive will not get below 37F or so.  All the palms are covered after about 3 hours spent, so I feel any damage from light patchy frost and a borderline freeze will be minimal at most for my tender palms.  The betel nut is quadruple wrapped; I figured I might as well go all out since this is the last time I will be covering palms this season.  Let's see what it looks like 4 hours from now.

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530am and it is 40F here in New Port Richey. DP has gone up so I imagine that will be the low. ANY SIGNS OF A REAL WARM UP IN OUR FUTURE? Lord I am getting sick of this chill and the wind! :wub:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I had 40 for the coldest part of my yard this morning, but the other parts were at 43, but did see frost on the roof tops all the way to work and I work south of Ft Myers. Overall not too bad.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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I ended up at 43 in my yard in Indian Harbour Beach.  

From Monday's Forecast: 

NOAA, Unisys, WU

Monday 66/44, 65/45, 66/44 ACTUAL LOW: 45

Tuesday 65/42, 62/45, 56/43 ACTUAL LOW: 51

Wednesday 64/43, 62/42, 59/42 ACTUAL LOW: 46

Thursday 57/46, 58/38, 58/49 ACTUAL LOW: 43

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Only dropped to 44F here.  This was a non event after all of the self imposed hype.  My apologies but glad it worked out this way.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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19 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Very strange on how the temps will look tonight in Central and SW Florida.  This is a map from our local news on the futurecast of temps at 7:00am tomorrow. You can see how north Florida is going to be warmer than parts Central and South Florida.

 

Temps.PNG

What the heck?! How is this explained? (It looks like the Pahokee microclimate will hold up)

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