Potential for a Florida freeze in January

[Steve the palmreader]

42 Degrees with a little frost on some roofs here on Pine Island In Lee Country Fl. S.W.

[Zeeth]

Low of 34˚ was recorded at the weather station a few hundred feet from my house, and also at the Sarasota International airport. Anna Maria Island only got down to 46˚.

[IHB1979]

I had 46 in Indian Harbour Beach. Folks at work said frost on car windshields and open areas of lawn west of I95. Looks like we have a nice break from the cool weather for next week+.

Edited January 25, 2016 by IHB1979

[Yunder Wækraus]

1 hour ago, IHB1979 said:

I had 46 in Indian Harbour Beach. Folks at work said frost on car windshields and open areas of lawn west of I95. Looks like we have a nice break from the cool weather for next week+.

So do you think it stayed above 40 here in Indialantic?

[Zeeth]

8 minutes ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

So do you think it stayed above 40 here in Indialantic?

Here's a good weather station for your location:

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:32925.1.99999

 

Here's the monthly summary.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCOF/2016/1/25/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=Patrick%20Air%20Force%20Base&req_state=FL&reqdb.zip=32925&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

It looks like it was 36˚ yesterday morning, and 47˚ this morning.

[SubTropicRay]

Coldest reading here at Interbay this week was this morning with a low of 41F at 7:10 AM.  Hopefully, the now positive AO can offset the upcoming stratospheric warming.

[Jimbean]

43F for a low here in Merritt Island.  So it was 35F and 43F.

[Sandy Loam]

It sounds as though a couple of you heard about frost on rooftops (or elsewhere) while temperatures bottomed out with lows in the 40s F last night.  Can anyone explain how frost is possible in the 40s? 

I saw some light frost in Gainesville early this morning (rooftops and even on grass), but that is not surprising because we bottomed out in the 30s.  It's those temperatures in the 40s that make frost a mystery to me.  I'm no meteorologist, so please forgive me if the answer to this question is obvious to most of you.

 

[Zeeth]

11 minutes ago, Sandy Loam said:

It sounds as though a couple of you heard about frost on rooftops (or elsewhere) while temperatures bottomed out with lows in the 40s F last night.  Can anyone explain how frost is possible in the 40s? 

I saw some light frost in Gainesville early this morning (rooftops and even on grass), but that is not surprising because we bottomed out in the 30s.  It's those temperatures in the 40s that make frost a mystery to me.  I'm no meteorologist, so please forgive me if the answer to this question is obvious to most of you.

 

If the sky is clear enough, heat from surfaces can radiate out into space, leaving that surface colder than the air temperature. 

[Yunder Wækraus]

3 hours ago, Zeeth said:

Here's a good weather station for your location:

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:32925.1.99999

 

Here's the monthly summary.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCOF/2016/1/25/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=Patrick%20Air%20Force%20Base&req_state=FL&reqdb.zip=32925&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

It looks like it was 36˚ yesterday morning, and 47˚ this morning.

Patrick airforce base is 11 miles north of me. I can't say whether it is like other air bases in being a few degrees cooler than the adjacent communities (e.g. the ari base in Fairfield, CA). I'm sure any readings would be within 1-3 degrees of anything 15 miles in either direction.

[Silas_Sancona]

Checking W.U. as i left just after 6 this morning, Closest WX station ( Lakeside South) was reading 38F. Didn't see frost anywhere along my route to work until i got south of Bee Ridge  ( Sarasota). While most of the white stuff was on rooftops, there were several grassy areas south of Bee ridge  covered in frost, same situation once i got to work. Checking the weather around 8 or so, Looked like most stations around Sarasota averaged 34-36F and indeed the Lakeside South station by the house briefly hit 37F.

Getting home, didn't note any damage out in the yard. Of everything id had concerns about, it was 3 small Dictyosperma "red form" seedlings i left exposed. No spots or apparent frost burn on any of them.

Next weather issue looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.. possible 4" of rain forecast for the area. Any Severe weather looks minimal atm.. that could change..  Long range (Mid-Month) looks a bit uncertain.. with the GFS/Euro wavering between +10 above..and -10 below average temps for the east US and FL.

[Zeeth]

2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Checking W.U. as i left just after 6 this morning, Closest WX station ( Lakeside South) was reading 38F. Didn't see frost anywhere along my route to work until i got south of Bee Ridge  ( Sarasota). While most of the white stuff was on rooftops, there were several grassy areas south of Bee ridge  covered in frost, same situation once i got to work. Checking the weather around 8 or so, Looked like most stations around Sarasota averaged 34-36F and indeed the Lakeside South station by the house briefly hit 37F.

Getting home, didn't note any damage out in the yard. Of everything id had concerns about, it was 3 small Dictyosperma "red form" seedlings i left exposed. No spots or apparent frost burn on any of them.

Next weather issue looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.. possible 4" of rain forecast for the area. Any Severe weather looks minimal atm.. that could change..  Long range (Mid-Month) looks a bit uncertain.. with the GFS/Euro wavering between +10 above..and -10 below average temps for the east US and FL.

I had a D. album rubrum in Ellenton go through 2010 with very minimal damage. I think they're hardier than they get credit for. 

[Silas_Sancona]

17 minutes ago, Zeeth said:

I had a D. album rubrum in Ellenton go through 2010 with very minimal damage. I think they're hardier than they get credit for. 

Good to know. Also have regular alba seedlings, but they're sheltered under one of my benches.

[PalmatierMeg]

45.7F this morning. Predicted: 41F. I am well pleased.

[Palmaceae]

Had 41 this morning but did see frost on roof tops this morning, but non on the ground or plants. I drove to my new job today in which i had to be in Palm Beach this morning. As I was driving I saw the temp drop to 39 in places but when I got to Lake Okochobee the temps where in the upper 40's, and that was before sunrise.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

4 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Had 41 this morning but did see frost on roof tops this morning, but non on the ground or plants. I drove to my new job today in which i had to be in Palm Beach this morning. As I was driving I saw the temp drop to 39 in places but when I got to Lake Okochobee the temps where in the upper 40's, and that was before sunrise.

The South Side of Lake Okeechobee is a fantastic microclimate that rivals the area around Homestead and Florida City, maybe even comparable to the area around Fairchild!

[Yunder Wækraus]

On 1/25/2016, 8:14:48, IHB1979 said:

I had 46 in Indian Harbour Beach. Folks at work said frost on car windshields and open areas of lawn west of I95. Looks like we have a nice break from the cool weather for next week+.

So do you think it stayed above 4

 

9 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

The South Side of Lake Okeechobee is a fantastic microclimate that rivals the area around Homestead and Florida City, maybe even comparable to the area around Fairchild!

My dad was told as a child that South Bay was frost-free before they built the bigger dike after the "herricken" of '28.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

1 hour ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

So do you think it stayed above 4

 

My dad was told as a child that South Bay was frost-free before they built the bigger dike after the "herricken" of '28.

I would believe it.  The biggest healthiest and most robust Jamaican Tall Coconut Palms and Royal Palms I have ever seen are in that area on the South Side of the lake.  It is easily a HIGH end 10B Climate with many winters an 11A Climate!

[Jimbean]

So far the coldest temperatures for this season:

Cape Coral: 41F/45.7F

Ellington:  34F

Sarasota:  34F

Anna Marie Island:  46F

Merritt Island:  35F

Indian Harbor Beach:  37F

Holly Hill:  32.2F

Oak Hill:  29.8F

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

So far the coldest temperatures for this season:

Cape Coral: 41F/45.7F

Ellington:  34F

Sarasota:  34F

Anna Marie Island:  46F

Merritt Island:  35F

Indian Harbor Beach:  37F

Holly Hill:  32.2F

Oak Hill:  29.8F

Pretty normal or even slightly milder than normal for those areas?  What about Orlando?

[Jimbean]

Orlando:

Downtown:  35F

Orlando International: 34F

Winter Park:  30F

Pine Hills:  32F

I would say that North and South Florida has been warmer so far this season and Central Florida has been more comparatively average. 

[bubba]

My grandparents called them Hurrcuns. Hurcan=Caribe God of Evil Wind.1928 Hurrcun was a MoMo. Blew Raverah Beach all the way down to Miamah.

[displaced_floridian]

On ‎1‎/‎23‎/‎2016‎ ‎7‎:‎28‎:‎38‎, Bill H2DB said:

   Here is the Set Up for the night.

The NW vector for the winds is the big deal , and they may go more Northish by early hours .

Still , there is only so much potential here , so its just a good 'ol cold spell .

 

 

Night temps by Bill H, on Flickr

Interesting how Cape Sable and Miami are the only mainland areas over 60* Even the upper keys are colder.

 

[Yunder Wækraus]

On 1/25/2016, 8:14:48, IHB1979 said:

8 hours ago, bubba said:

My grandparents called them Hurrcuns. Hurcan=Caribe God of Evil Wind.1928 Hurrcun was a MoMo. Blew Raverah Beach all the way down to Miamah.

Yep, my aunt says hurrikun, but my uncle uses a rarer variant, herrikun :-) both grew up saying Miama too. (By the way, the OED records the variant version of hurricane with initial heri-, so this is not something my uncle started on his own)

 

[Eric in Orlando]

I now live in Altamonte Springs, about 12 miles N of Orlando. Coldest at my house so far is 33F with only light frost. Surprising as this is usually a cold pocket. Bananas, the excellent freeze indicator, only have some burn on a few leaf edges. There is a coconut palm down the street that is starting to form trunk and it still looks good.

At Leu Gardens it has been to 35F as measured by our weather station in the open. 

 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

I just checked my digital thermometer outside with sensor about 10ft. from the house and about a foot off the ground.  At midnight it was showing 38.3F, so for the 27th, we tied the coldest of 38.3F at my place on 1/10.  The local weathermen, one is predicting a low of 34F at the airport, and the other is predicting a low of 35F.  Either would be the lowest so far, with the previous lowest of 36F on 1/10.  If it gets down to 34F at the airport, that would mean 36F to 38F for my place, since my place averages about 2F to 4F warmer for a low than the airport.  I didn't notice any frost on anything.  It is really dry out.  This has still been a very mild winter here.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

Coldest morning this winter in my yard with a low of 33.6F and light frost on the yard and on the car, and roof tops, but no sign of frost on my coconut palms or other plants, but I did notice some dark green spotting on my Livistona saribus and chinensis.  Supposedly, it got down to 33F at the airport, their coldest too, but if I got down to 33.6F, they should have been down around 30F or 31F, since my yard is usually 2F to 4F warmer for the low than the airport.  This was a weird cold morning with spotty really cold temps like 28F in George West, just north of Corpus Christi, but only 35F just east of there in Beeville.  Also, in the Rio Grande Valley, there was quite a range from 35F at Edinburg, just north of McAllen to 48F at South Padre Island, but just across the causeway in Port Isabel, it was in the upper 30'sF.  Go figure.

[RedRabbit]

36.5 on Monday was the lowest I recorded with a little frost on the roofs. It seems like a pretty mild winter this year, I haven't seen any plant damage locally.

[IHB1979]

Pretty strong agreement that the PV will split in the next week or so. Here's a link to a great GFS animation of the forecast split. Should make what's left of winter pretty interesting. A lot of cold air will be leaving the arctic.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by IHB1979

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On ‎1‎/‎27‎/‎2016‎ ‎8‎:‎07‎:‎31‎, Eric in Orlando said:

I now live in Altamonte Springs, about 12 miles N of Orlando. Coldest at my house so far is 33F with only light frost. Surprising as this is usually a cold pocket. Bananas, the excellent freeze indicator, only have some burn on a few leaf edges. There is a coconut palm down the street that is starting to form trunk and it still looks good.

At Leu Gardens it has been to 35F as measured by our weather station in the open. 

 

Eric,

Could you get a photo or two of the Coconut Palm down the street from you?  Thanks.

John

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

4 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

Pretty strong agreement that the PV will split in the next week or so. Here's a link to a great GFS animation of the forecast split. Should make what's left of winter pretty interesting. A lot of cold air will be leaving the arctic.

 

 

Looks like it will go more to the east and not affect us on the west side of the Gulf too much, but you guys in Florida might be in for some cold days.

[Yunder Wækraus]

7 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

Pretty strong agreement that the PV will split in the next week or so. Here's a link to a great GFS animation of the forecast split. Should make what's left of winter pretty interesting. A lot of cold air will be leaving the arctic.

 

 

Can this be converted into hard number predictions for FL? Does this model portend a certain freeze for us?

[PalmatierMeg]

After a dip to 49F overnight, nothing below 50F for the next 10 days (yeah, way too far out). But so far this winter my lows have been 2-4 degrees above prediction.

[Silas_Sancona]

After running the 18z (GFS).. Keep an eye on the next big storm heading our way around the 10th ( 240-288 hours currently).. Looks like winter may try and take another swipe at FL. While not as bullish as earlier runs, some serious cold still tries to dive south. Will be interesting to see how things change as we get closer in time. A lot of conflicting signals that may or may not effect how far this round of cold can penetrate before getting shunted east. AO might head into Negative territory ( messy forecast) but NAO stays positive/ neutral-ish.. at least atm. PNA hovers around Neutral/ slightly Positive but is suggested to head Negative ( a Plus for warmer weather here) The bigger "wildcard" is how the current Inactive MJO phase will effect how a split PV effects FL.  Even so, cold looks to quickly shift east/ back north with milder temps beyond 300 hours.. Quite ready for some sustained warmth, even if kinda cloudy like today. Got alot of stuff to get done before packing up the truck and heading west.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On ‎1‎/‎31‎/‎2016‎ ‎8‎:‎18‎:‎54‎, Silas_Sancona said:

After running the 18z (GFS).. Keep an eye on the next big storm heading our way around the 10th ( 240-288 hours currently).. Looks like winter may try and take another swipe at FL. While not as bullish as earlier runs, some serious cold still tries to dive south. Will be interesting to see how things change as we get closer in time. A lot of conflicting signals that may or may not effect how far this round of cold can penetrate before getting shunted east. AO might head into Negative territory ( messy forecast) but NAO stays positive/ neutral-ish.. at least atm. PNA hovers around Neutral/ slightly Positive but is suggested to head Negative ( a Plus for warmer weather here) The bigger "wildcard" is how the current Inactive MJO phase will effect how a split PV effects FL.  Even so, cold looks to quickly shift east/ back north with milder temps beyond 300 hours.. Quite ready for some sustained warmth, even if kinda cloudy like today. Got alot of stuff to get done before packing up the truck and heading west.

Nathan,

Sorry you have to leave Coconut Territory and head to the dessert.  I miss living in the heart of it in Coral Springs, but I don't miss the rat race in Southeast Florida, which you don't have too much of in your part of Florida.

John