Jump to content

Potential for a Florida freeze in January


SubTropicRay
 Share

Recommended Posts

The AO will be less negative as January ends but it fails to go positive so the danger is still looming.  We appear to have dodged the bullet this time.  Eyes wide open. :bemused: 

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SubTropicRay said:

The AO will be less negative as January ends but it fails to go positive so the danger is still looming.  We appear to have dodged the bullet this time.  Eyes wide open. :bemused: 

One of our local meteorologists produces a small video each morning and he was saying yesterday that after this cold snap we'll be trending upwards through the end of January. So if we're near 70F in Montgomery then I imagine central and south Florida we'll be safe from the cold for the next two or three weeks. 

image.png

Edited by nitsua0895
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the Orlando area is going to make it through the end of January (and this winter so far) with lowest temperatures of 36-38F (39-40F in the heat island).  The overall forecast for February does not look ominous, so we likely have an average at best chance of getting a freeze next month.  Remember, highs here tend to be in the low 50s (rather than 45-49F in Dec-Jan) even on days with freezing low temperatures in February.  Maybe we'll end up with a 10b winter here?  More likely 10a, once February is included, but that is average for this area anyways.  I like to relish the fact that I live in a (very low-end) zone 10 climate!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I checked the NAO and it has it slightly positive trending after next weekend. It usually requires a big negative for arctic air to hit us. That said, February still looms! C'mon March get here fast! :wub:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the exception of Jan 1, this month so far has been pretty darn close to average and has generally featured weather I would describe as "average" winter weather for the area.  Sunny days in the 60s are about as good as it gets to me!  For this, I can see why so many people love Southern California.

Some palms are already showing a little bit of pallor or slight spotting, but nothing major yet.

Edited by palmsOrl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is certainly feeling like winter today, but loving it! Dew point at 39 degrees so very dry air for Florida. We are just expecting low 40's for the next couple nights.

  • Upvote 1

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low 40s predicted next couple nights. Super sensitives came indoors. I think this month has had average temps but around here we've been really short on sunshine. Starts out sunny, then clouds move in for the rest of the day. Makes the day seem colder and drearier. Last Thurs we had dawn to dusk sun and blue skies and it was lovely. Now we're back in the funk.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

I think the Orlando area is going to make it through the end of January (and this winter so far) with lowest temperatures of 36-38F (39-40F in the heat island).  The overall forecast for February does not look ominous, so we likely have an average at best chance of getting a freeze next month.  Remember, highs here tend to be in the low 50s (rather than 45-49F in Dec-Jan) even on days with freezing low temperatures in February.  Maybe we'll end up with a 10b winter here?  More likely 10a, once February is included, but that is average for this area anyways.  I like to relish the fact that I live in a (very low-end) zone 10 climate!

I live in a low to mid end Zone 10A climate too, but this winter has been high end 10B for me so far (lowest 38.3F on 1/10, with a high that day of 59.7F, so we rebounded nicely after a chilly morning low that day).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, enigma99 said:

Wow look at this nasty gfs that just ran. If this holds, I think will be the coldest temps of the winter by far

image.gif

So does this mean we should expect a freeze in Central Florida?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

So does this mean we should expect a freeze in Central Florida?

It don't think Brevard county barrier island will have a freeze.

This forecast is for 1/28, which is 9 days out. In general more than 4-5 days out is less accurate but does provide awareness of a possible weather event. This particular graphic, the 850mb GFS is for weather conditions around 5000' above sea level. I believe there is some equation to figure surface high temps, but don't remember.

Edited by IHB1979
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actual low last night: 49.8F        Predicted: 45F

Predicted low tonight: 41F

I hope it trends like last night

  • Upvote 1

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

So does this mean we should expect a freeze in Central Florida?

This morning's GFS went a lot more mild. It goes back and forth usually.. time will tell :)

Look at this one that came out 3 hours ago... both 0Z Thur and it's completely different. 

gfs_850_8e_2.gif

Edited by enigma99
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temperatures haven't made it above the mid 50's today here and dewpoints are in the mid teens at the moment.  Lows last night and the night before were slightly above forecast but I think tonight we could see low 30s in rural areas around Orlando, mid 30s in most of the burbs (including Winter Park) and upper 30s for downtown Orlando.  AccuWeather has us getting to 34F.  Let's see what the heat island accomplishes tonight.

I have covered almost all the tender palms (yesterday) as a precaution, but the Clinostigma ponapense and Cyrtostachys hybrid, Adonidia and Ptychosperma elegans are a bit too big to bother with since we are not forecast to actually freeze.  It will be really interesting to see how some of these hold up.  My Areca catechu is triple wrapped including the whole trunk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bill H2DB said:

Here is the Melbourne NWS DP and surface wind map at approx 2PM today.

Looks like the surface flow may become NNE by early AM hours .

If I can hear the surf in the night , I'll be happy .

 

24119631699_aa173409bb_c.jpgFla Dewpoint 1-19-16 2PM by Bill H, on Flickr

 

 

Forgive my ignorance, but I don't completely understand this map. Is this a projection for a few days from now, or is this the projected distribution of lows tonight? If the latter, does the freeze line fall west of the barrier island in Brevard County (i.e. location of Indialantic)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not an expert but I believe it's a dew point temperature map with dew point taken 2 meters (6-1/2') above the ground and 10 knot wind. Looks like my dew point is about 34 degrees but those light blues blend together for me so I have trouble reading the scale. If you're in NE FL your dew point looks scary.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good luck down there. Looks to be a nasty one. Saw a hard freeze warning for inland areas around Jacksonville. Ouch!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

Forgive my ignorance, but I don't completely understand this map. Is this a projection for a few days from now, or is this the projected distribution of lows tonight? If the latter, does the freeze line fall west of the barrier island in Brevard County (i.e. location of Indialantic)?

   That map shows the Dewpoint ,( not the Air Temp) , at that particular time . It is a way of showing how dry the air is .

The dryer the air , the more quickly it will cool off , as well as other effects , like making the "feels like " temp low  , etc .

But here are the map(s) this evening at 7PM ( DP) , and actual Air Temp at 8PM .

Note that the DP has risen in East Central Fla , and that is partially due to the wind vector changing to N and or NNE , bringing the

flow across the water , increasing the water content some .  That will fluctuate some during the night , because we're in the center of 

the bubble , and the little air movement will be variable until the center passes to the East , which will be late tonite and towards daybreak. 

Gonna be a Frost and light freeze inland, up in this latitude  , and borderline frost closer to the coast .Probably very little

frost except in very open areas on the beachside here .    Frost in the inland pockets well to the south tho.

A classic January thing . Nothing unusual at all .

 

23862126494_563d6ea8d1_c.jpgDP 7PM by Bill H, on Flickr

 

 

24122574419_2d06c0043d_c.jpgAir 8PM by Bill H, on Flickr

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38-41F is the forecast spread for our low tonight. Only thing i brought in is my Persian Carpet ( Edithcolea grandis) since it finally put out decent growth last year and i'm hoping i'll  finally get flowers sometime this spring or summer. Other stuff  said to be somewhat tender, such as my Guaiacum officinale and Cinnacord( Acacia choriophylla) specimens sit against the south facing wall of the house so no worries. Glad tonight should be the coldest night going forward with what looks to be the start of an extended warm up after some rain and possible storms on Friday, and a cool weekend. Last Saturday morning, i noticed that that some of the Red Kapok trees at the old Bradenton Herald property are in full bloom while heading back form Kopsick. Other trees i pass every day in Sarasota are budded but at least a few weeks from flowering.  Always consider their flowering period as one of the first signs of spring.

That being said, keep an eye on the forecast next week.. Florida may be under the gun for another round of strong storms/ perhaps excessive rainfall sometime between the 25-28th. On the good side, changing weather pattern looks to pull all the cold back north, where it belongs.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still freeze free in So Louisiana.   Got down to 33-34 night before last, and a nice frost this morning.  Upcoming front showing 34 and 36.   Crossing fingers as January seems to want to finish out on the chilly side.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We got down to 28 fir the second time this year Monday morning.  If I counted right this is the 6th time below 32 this winter.  Very mild for us. Zero ice thusfar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of 11:15 pm, I have three thermometers out.  The one under oak canopy reads 41F while the two out in an open part of the yard read 36F and 38.5F.  I think we will be getting a bit colder than forecast at my location.  I just went out and covered a few semi-large tender palms that I had decided not to earlier.  Heterospathe elata is apparently really tender as the foliage not under the towel i put on it last night already looked pretty fried (windburn or frost from last night?). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I got down to 44 this morning in the Cape. It always amazes me how cold sentitive coconut palms are, I saw some very minor spotting on the some of the lower fronds on some of my coconut palms (you really have to look to see the spots but I see them;)). I am finally getting some canopy in the yard but still have a ways to go before it helps with keeping the temps up. The problem I have is all the empty prairies of Cape Coral next to me that provide no protection.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was 44 at 6:50 on Tampa's Interbay peninsula.

The AO marches on in very negative territory.  More potential ahead for the sub freezing stuff.  :bemused:

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been watching this coming weekend. Saturday night/Sunday morning looks interesting. Will be very windy, 20-25mph, gusts to 30. I don't like the WNW winds. That brings the cold air right down the spine of the peninsula.

Saturday

Weather Channel: 56/40

NOAA: 59/41

Accuweather: 57/41

Sunday

Weather Channel: 59/46

NOAA:  59/47

Accuweather: 58/45

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actual low last night: 47  (vs predicted 44)

Looks like back down to mid-40s over the weekend. But better than the 18-24" of snow predicted for my former VA homestead.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38F (37.9F) at Orlando International, 41F! at the heat island Orlando Executive Airport.  A new digital thermometer in an open area of the back yard was reading 32F at 2:15 am this morning, but did not get any lower the rest of the night (recorded low 32F).  I had this thermometer on a block slab in the grass in the open so I suspect this reading was due to excessive radiational cooling (or something like that) in the spot, as I have recorded anomalously low readings on digital thermometers in the open before, last year included.  I suspect that overall we bottomed out around 36-37F with some frost.  I am glad I covered most of the palms, as I think simply covering provides the most benefit during events just like this, with temperatures at or just above freezing and frost.  Some of my Cocos are showing a bit of spotting, one tiny one actually looks pretty fried, despite being covered by a single blanket.  Due to its small size, I will make sure to cover it in many layers for any upcoming events the rest of the winter so I don't lose it.  It is one of the Hawaiian Talls I ordered last summer. Small coconuts are indeed really tender!  Saturday night looks like a repeat, or even slightly colder, so I will keep all the covering materials in a pile and do it all over again Saturday.  This is the price I pay for having a "Miami" landscape in Orlando.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

71 for a high today in Louisiana.  Rare treat for January.  We'll be sending you a little wam treat from upstream.  But then we'll be sending more cold, too 

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still holding on to a 10a winter here on the Northern Gulf Coast....

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33.4F on the digital in open areas in New Port Richey.No frost in the back or front yards, but light frost on the car top yet not on windows. Teachers I work with in Clearwater and Palm Harbor all reported frost on cars and yards. They REALLY need to get rid of the Tampa thermometer! Low of 41f in Tampa? Warmer than Clearwater? Even where I teach in Holiday (VERY coastal) frost was on the ground in open spaces at 7am. I know its only January but I am so ready for spring! I miss December'swarm weather! :angry:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, gsytch said:

33.4F on the digital in open areas in New Port Richey.No frost in the back or front yards, but light frost on the car top yet not on windows. Teachers I work with in Clearwater and Palm Harbor all reported frost on cars and yards. They REALLY need to get rid of the Tampa thermometer! Low of 41f in Tampa? Warmer than Clearwater? Even where I teach in Holiday (VERY coastal) frost was on the ground in open spaces at 7am. I know its only January but I am so ready for spring! I miss December'swarm weather! :angry:

Most all the weekend forecasts have us very chilly/windy and cloudy Saturday but lows only near 40F, as opposed to this last cold snap which had classic radiational cooling. Then a rapid warmup should follow. If that occurs, perhaps a break in this cold pattern to ensue!

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The local TV weather has a low for Houston (Intercontinental airport) at 32F for Saturday morning. NOAA is forecasting 33F for Intercontinental and 35 for Hobby airport.

7-day.jpg

 

Ed in Houston

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast were at 32/33 for Sat and Sun morning, so I though our freeze free run might be over, but forecast just changed to 33/33.  Cliff hanger, lol.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast for the airport here in Corpus Christi for Sat. morning is 36F according to one station and 39F according to another, which means about 39F to 42F for my place, not bad or out of the ordinary for a quick Jan. cold snap, then warming up for a couple of days, then cooling off again.  We will probably be starting our spring patterns here in the next couple of weeks.  For all practical purposes we start spring here by early to mid Feb. (one of the advantages of living at about 27.7 N Latitude).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...