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Epic rain may hit Cali months......


trioderob
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I shall withhold judgment........

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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... Told ya :mrlooney: Been watching this one ramp up for months, all updates I look over 3+X's a week just keep getting stronger. WAYYY different than last year.

-Nathan


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Until such time as there are puddles of water standing in my yard, I am truly unconvinced......after all of the years that we have been promised the saviour 'El Nino' we have been sorely disappointed.......if we have rain, so be it, otherwise this hubbub about 'The Child' is just a bunch of hooey to me......

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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oh yeah

I remember El Nino 1998

Some guy in the LA Times says, "what? this El Nino stuff is a myth"

and

that day

it started to rain

and it rained

and it rained

for more than 40 days and 40 nights, though not continuously

And my yard in El Screamo was a Sea of [expletive] Mud, as the people who took back the washing machine can attest

And

I was a tax driver

Best time to be a cabby in LA is in the rain

That bald guy from Seinfeld acted like he'd melt under El Nino's withering gaze.

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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I, too, am skeptical--it's just too early to say for sure. Those models can change quite a bit between now and October.

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Hmm, as a newer California resident I'm cautiously optimistic. However, all this talk of "catastrophic" flooding, has me a tad concerned.

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Until such time as there are puddles of water standing in my yard, I am truly unconvinced......after all of the years that we have been promised the saviour 'El Nino' we have been sorely disappointed.......if we have rain, so be it, otherwise this hubbub about 'The Child' is just a bunch of hooey to me......

Man, I just DIG that word 'hooey'! Sounds so much gooder than the poop word.

 

 

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Considering the climate the last few years and the projected dryness of future seasons, I can only hope for all your sakes that this really does ramp up and dump like it's supposed to.

GO EL NINO!!!

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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Well, maybe. While the whole thing may decrease the drought conditions and increase water storage in reservoirs, where exactly some of those storms will land is anyone's guess. We could be looking at Frisco or Malibu getting inundated, but San Diego could still be dry as a bone.

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Until such time as there are puddles of water standing in my yard, I am truly unconvinced......after all of the years that we have been promised the saviour 'El Nino' we have been sorely disappointed.......if we have rain, so be it, otherwise this hubbub about 'The Child' is just a bunch of hooey to me......

Man, I just DIG that word 'hooey'! Sounds so much gooder than the poop word.

How about malarkey, bunkum, humbug, claptrap?

Carl

Vista, CA

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Until such time as there are puddles of water standing in my yard, I am truly unconvinced......after all of the years that we have been promised the saviour 'El Nino' we have been sorely disappointed.......if we have rain, so be it, otherwise this hubbub about 'The Child' is just a bunch of hooey to me......

Man, I just DIG that word 'hooey'! Sounds so much gooder than the poop word.

How about malarkey, bunkum, humbug, claptrap?

Yeah, thems too Carl. I must say though, unequivalently speaking, my two favoritist words in the English lanuage also mean the same...SPI-TOON and CUS-PI-DOR. They just roll off the tongue.

As for the El Nino? If the bubble-headed bleach blonde who comes on at 5 sez so then I'll be a believer.

 

 

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.........................As for the El Nino? If the bubble-headed bleach blonde who comes on at 5 sez so then I'll be a believer................

Which one,..there are so, so many!

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John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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El Niño has an 80 percent chance of lasting into early spring 2016, according to an updated forecast released on Thursday by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Adminisration (NOAA). NOAA also reported that there is a greater than 90 percent chance of El Niño lasting through the upcoming winter.
There's also an increasing chance El Niño may become strong, perhaps the strongest since the 1997-1998 episode and, thus, may play a stronger role in your weather.
Looking at past moderate-strong El Ninos, here are the upshots for temperatures and precipitation from late fall through winter in the U.S.:
- Wetter: Southern U.S. from California to the Carolinas then up parts of the East Coast
- Drier: Parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northwest and Northern Rockies
- Cooler: Desert Southwest, Southern Plains, northern Gulf Coast
- Warmer: Northern tier of states from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast
Note these are impacts that are typically expected, but they aren't always the rule.
The weak El Niño in the winter of 2006-07 provided a totally different story than what we saw in the very strong 1997-98 El Niño winter.
California had its 23rd driest winter season on record when looking at the three-month period from December 2006 to February 2007. In Los Angeles, the entire water year from July 2006 to June 2007 was the driest on record with just 3.21 inches of rainfall.
So, those hoping for drought relief next winter in the Golden State shouldn't immediately draw a conclusion that significant rains are ahead in any El Niño year. The strength of the El Niño can play a role in the outcome. In addition, heavy rainfall can occur with or without El Niño present and that was the case in the winter preceding the strong 1997-1998 El Niño.

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.........................As for the El Nino? If the bubble-headed bleach blonde who comes on at 5 sez so then I'll be a believer................

Which one,..there are so, so many!

Take your pick...

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post-4141-0-43117600-1436630643.jpg

post-4141-0-06380800-1436630644.jpg

post-4141-0-12192200-1436630653_thumb.jp

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The following text was posted on Facebook by Steve Paulsen, the local weatherman on KTVU 2 - Oakland. He has always seemed to have his feces consolidated and relies on others knowledge as well as his own.....

'Okay, debated "weather" to post this or not. Larry Cosgrove is one of the sharpest Meteorologists I know. He writes a very detailed discussion called WEATHERAmerica. This is usually by subscription or on Google +. His latest update is all about El Nino and his stance against the hype. Long, detailed and technical but here's the counterpoint on upcoming wet Winter.

You might call this section the "anti-hype El Nino outlook". We have seen a veritable explosion of comments in national media and on the Internet concerning the evolving +ENSO episode. Most cite climatology for "high end" deviations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. But some discourses have stooped to include a possible merger of this event with "The Blob" of warmth lurking off of the West Coast. Still others fall into the weighted trap of "typical" explanations which echo the historic 1982-83 and 1997-98 recordings. Or, worse yet, proclaim that a "SUPER EL NINO IS COMING!!!"

I mean, come on now. We have an unusual development in that the current signal was extant last winter and has actually built a bit in spring and summer. There is no viable analog out there to what is happening between the Philippines and the Galapagos Islands at the current time. Some have pointed to 1910, but to me that is a stretch in that there is no reliable hydrothermal data that far back. Remember that the NOAA database only goes to January 1948, and the nearest comparison period was the 1953 event (which was never more than a weak El Nino but was persistent through the year).

Add to that the possible connection to "THE BLOB". Some writing geniuses have decided to scrape the technical-sounding "positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation" in favor of the more fun-sounding evocation of a terrible movie from 1958 starring Steve McQueen (and remade with Kevin Dillon in the lead 30 years later). KATU-TV in Portland OR committed this latest insult to meteorology on Friday, using the (ahem) term coined by the Oregon state climatologist. What is bad about this situation is that the immense +PDO signature, when matched with a strong El Nino pulse, can actually help to create weather that is truly extreme and not the "typical" reaction. That is, instead of California getting flooding rains and cooler temperatures, the entire West ends up trapped in yet another massive drought that could last through the winter. You see, the southern branch wind field is forced far south into Mexico, and does not recurve until about 90 W Longitude.

I will try and summarize possible outcomes here. One issue that needs to be addressed is the strength of the current +ENSO episode. Yes, it is true that the CFS version (and really most of the dynamic models of the event) show the strongest possible level (+3 deg C deviation in Sector 3.4). But the climatic equations seem to recognize that the "strong" threshold level (+2 deg C) might not be attained. Using the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), the AMJ measure was still in weak territory, +0.9 anomaly. My suspicion is that we may stay in the moderate category into early fall (see attached ONI prediction). But notice that even the monster event forecast by the CPC tails off rapidly as we head into winter and spring. It would not surprise me that, like was the case in 1953, a neutral signature emerges over the equatorial Pacific Basin by January 2016.

Now what does this all mean in terms of apparent weather? Well again, I must remind everyone that ENSO is NOT the begin-all and end-all of global weather patterns. Yes, it can be very important! If we take current seasonal predictions of a strong Sonoran heat ridge shifting into the center of the U.S. before undergoing late autumn retrogression, the remainder of the summer will be hot across parts of the Intermountain Region, Great Plains and Old South. Shortwaves rounding the ridge complex will bring thunderstorms, along with minor intrusions of cooler air, across the northern and eastern tier of the U.S.

We may see some brief periods of relaxation of low-latitude westerlies (note the current weakening of the Saharan heat ridge). So some of the stronger ITCZ impulses may make it across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean into the western sectors of the basin. I also suspect that decaying frontal structures and disturbances crossing from the equatorial Pacific Ocean through Central America and southern Mexico will be primed for intensification. While this is unlikely to be a big "Cape Verde" storm year, I still think that the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Sargasso Sea will provide more action in the tropics than last year. My call for 14 named storms before November 31 remains. I also think that we may be in for an East Coast surprise in October.

Consider the idea that the current episode is likely to peak earlier, and is accompanied by the massive (three years running now) block of warm waters along the entirety of the West Coast. This suggests that the past two fall and winter seasons must be used in the analog formulation (+PDO). In other words, a transition to a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy East alignment. This will likely occur only after the El Nino starts to decline. My current guess (and it is fair to use that word in this situation) is that we might not see much in the way of cold and snow in the lower 48 states before January 1. But then, like last year, the JFM period will be a reminder not to put too much trust in winter outlooks that year after year say "partly cloudy and mild most of the time".

So much speculation. Too much stress. But then again, I did not have to experience what people in Boston did last winter.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE'

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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Latest entry via Weather West's CA. Weather Blog is a very good read. While a wet and wild winter for CA still is up in the air, forecast signals for the near-er term are a bit unusual and interesting.

Also saw something while skimming through recent blog entries on W.U. In one related to the latest on E. Pac storm activity, there was an interesting reference regarding where 26C/84F SSTs are positioned atm.. Such temps are significant when looking at how far north any E. Pac Hurricanes/ Trop. storms can reach at full or near full strength before starting to unwind.

Currently, this "boundary" is positioned several hundred miles north of where it would typically lie this time of year off Baja. The closer this boundary is to the offshore waters off SoCal, higher are the chances of something a bit stronger than some showers and a T-storm blowing into the Southland.

If the latest models get it right, the suggested forecast for this coming weekend/early next week out there could be a hint of what August and/ or September may bring to CA and Arizona. It is also interesting that out of the 4 E. Pac Hurricanes thus far this year, 3 have achieved Cat. 4 status so early in the season.. Hawaii has already been eyed a couple times also.

-Nathan



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Hell, they don't even know for sure if it will rain next week. I read this kind of long range stuff, too. But only for entertainment value.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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we got side swiped by hurricane Dolores

.85 " rain and epic lightning

as of 3 pm

Congrats. I know the rain had to feel good.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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we got side swiped by hurricane Dolores

.85 " rain and epic lightning

as of 3 pm

Been watching the rain/storms roll north all day. Looks like L.A. and surrounding areas are under the gun atm.

Also looks like the models are upping the chances for rain/ possible storms reaching the S.F. bay area sometime before Monday.

Enjoy this latest "taste of Florida" for the next couple days. Bet some local records will fall.

-Nathan

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Yes this really is a 'taste of Florida'--heavy rain, thunder & lightning. Been muggy all day, not supposed to go below 70 tonight here in coastal SD county. Vista and Escondido must have had at least 3/4 inch.

Edited by displaced_floridian
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we got side swiped by hurricane Dolores

.85 " rain and epic lightning

as of 3 pm

Been watching the rain/storms roll north all day. Looks like L.A. and surrounding areas are under the gun atm.

Also looks like the models are upping the chances for rain/ possible storms reaching the S.F. bay area sometime before Monday.

Enjoy this latest "taste of Florida" for the next couple days. Bet some local records will fall.

-Nathan

Roared home to the rain.

Ahhhhh

stood outside with my tongue out . . . .

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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Something is going on... and if it is because of 'El Nino'..... our weather has surely been effected by it. Temps have been below normal since late spring..and typically summer will bring ~60 days of 90f+... as it stands it looks like we will be half that.

Precipitation is way above normal and so far is the 4th wettest in history for the first 6 months of the year.. Albuquerque YTD is at around 7".... and this is 3 inches above normal.

I'm convinced.

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Another 95F day today and then some relief down to 80F next week. We might get some rain in September, yes Sept. We broken so many 90F+ days this year, it really been nice and hot here. Cali get ready for lots of rain come Nov. Dec. Most of are rain should go south this fall-winter.

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Something is going on... and if it is because of 'El Nino'..... our weather has surely been effected by it. Temps have been below normal since late spring..and typically summer will bring ~60 days of 90f+... as it stands it looks like we will be half that.

Precipitation is way above normal and so far is the 4th wettest in history for the first 6 months of the year.. Albuquerque YTD is at around 7".... and this is 3 inches above normal.

I'm convinced.

Interesting.. was looking over the most recent data via Tucson's Monsoon Tracker and noticed the same thing. Many of the spots the site uses to record rainfall are above to well above average or within one good storms worth of exceeding their current normal value..

A great example of this years trend thus far: Normal rainfall to this date is only 1.82" for Sierra Vista. Current rainfall as of 7/19 is 5.64"

Tucson is a little short of normal ( .80" currently vs. 1.22" current rainfall norm. ) Still, the heart of Monsoon season is only just starting and It is looking like a big S.E'rly. flow may set up again in 7-12 days.

-Nathan

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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I 've got epic and jaw dropping rain.

near la mesa on the freeway experienced "white out" conditions - visibility zero

had to come to a stop on the highway - first time since driving thru a north texas tornatic supercell years ago

Edited by trioderob
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another .85" rain for me today as of 3:50 pm

that's 1.7" total so far near san diego state on a CocRAHS rain gage

storm%20gauge%20SE%208-28-07.jpg

Edited by trioderob
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Whoo-yeah

Raining here in the barbarian north of La Habra, at about 4:30 p.m. Rain racing off the edge of the roof. (No, I don't have any rain gutters. What's the point? Hardly any rain.)

Glad I took my undies in off the line at noon.

Went from a blistering muggy Prison-farm-blues kind of day to a cool rainy late afternoon, overcast.

Ahhhh.

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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9:30 pm Sunday (eastern), parts of San Diego and points north are looking Florida-wet on the radar. What are tourists going to think?

Fla. climate center: 100-119 days>85 F
USDA 1990 hardiness zone 9B
Current USDA hardiness zone 10a
4 km inland from Indian River; 27º N (equivalent to Brisbane)

Central Orlando's urban heat island may be warmer than us

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still raining

got another 1/10 " at home

went to the zoo (have pass) and the tourist looked real unhappy

they picked the worst (best for us ) July weekend in a century

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still raining

got another 1/10 " at home

went to the zoo (have pass) and the tourist looked real unhappy

they picked the worst (best for us ) July weekend in a century

If they were smart enough to know, they (the tourists at the Zoo/ anyone visiting the southland this weekend) would know how historic each of those rain drops falling on their heads were. Pretty sure the Animals and Palms are loving it.

FYI: While I am sure they will be updated come morning, let alone if Monday sees more rainfall.. lots of impressive info regarding all sorts of record rainfall and max/ min temp observations for this event posted on the NOAA's San Diego Page. Next Tropical system should be winding up off Mexico by Tue/Wed.

-Nathan

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