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Southern Autumn 2015


tropicbreeze
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Thought I'd better start this before everyone decides to hibernate and falls asleep. Not that autumn is particularly significant here, it's still our wet season, even if not much of a wet season this year.

There's chatterings around the place that March will be a very high rainfall month. I haven't seen anything official on that. The month started off pretty good, but then suddenly died in the proverbial. At this point I'm average rainfall for March, on a daily basis. But with the nose dive the past few days I've had to turn the auto irrigation back on. The road out the front of my place is getting dusty again. My dam is only just trickling over whereas normally it should be running well. It's nice to have showers and storms in the forecast. But even nicer if they actually arrive.

BOM's 7 day outlook:

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Cape York looks like it may get significantly wet in the next week. Maybe a cyclone around the Cooktown area. The BOM is showing a system that crosses the Cape from east to west, almost making it into the Gulf, then sort of turns back into the Cape and goes south inland a bit from the coast.

Down here the days have been in the high twenties to low thirties but the nights are cooling down and the weather has definitely changed to be more Autumn in nature. 10-20mm of rain would be nice. We've had a virtually stationary high sitting just to the south of us for days.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Looks like a weekend of thunderstorms coming up with possibly decent falls even into Monday and a cyclone hitting north west cape at the same time. Night temps have come back up due to cloud cover and max's are still in the high twenties with high humidity. Also the winds which normally rip through here have really moderated lately. It's dead still this morning.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Looks like a cyclone will hit Exmouth or Coral Bay on Friday then the decaying remnants will go through the Gascoyne then join up with another moist tropical flow as the cyclone remnants decays down the south coast of WA on Saturday. Forecasting 90% chance of 40mm of rain on Sat plus good falls after that. We may double our March average rainfall in 2 or 3 days. Here's hoping.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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TC Olwyn will hit Exmouth as a cat 3 in a few hours. I wonder how the most southerly wild native palm in WA will go with this direct hit. The one and only furthest south Livistona alfredii sits on top of a mountain in Cape Range NP on private property. It survived TC Vance in 99 which was a hard cat 5 with 290kmh winds so hopefully a cat 3 won't damage it too much.

It's going to be an interesting couple of days. It could still be a TC within a couple of hundred kms from Perth. According to the BOM it will track the entire west coast from NW cape then come out over the ocean again near me. Obviously it will be a tropical low by then.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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All the L. alfredii I've seen are pretty sturdy plants so it'll probably be okay. Didn't realise there were any on the Cape Range. I've only ever seen the ones further inland.

Still no rain, the 2 cyclones are sucking all the moisture away. Todays forecast is the only realistic one for ages here. And then they're back to their usual "possible" showers and storms. They're getting the temps pretty right though. Tonight we have a very clear star filled sky.

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The temp has just peaked at 43.9C here and thankfully dropping. The cyclone is pulling in northerly winds from the centre. The BOM is predicting severe damage for Perth and the SW as it moves through. We'll get the TL over us tomorrow night.

In regards to L alfredii, there were 3 on Cape Range before TC Vance in 99. Vance snapped 1or 2 of them and left one lone one behind. Supposedly it has been dropping seeds that germinate but wild goats keep eating them. It's only accessible by helicopter. The Exmouth gulf used to be the delta for the Ashburton river in wetter ancient times and no doubt L afredii would have been right through the region.

That cat 5 cyclone looks scary.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Looks like Port Vila is in for a battering... :bummed:

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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Heading for NZ tomorrow but our chilly seas help a lot. Might skirt along east coast with luck.

Doesn't sound that lucky to me :badday: It has got dry now so some rain would be nice,.... just not another 750mm in 36hrs event like we got back in April 2011.

Waimarama New Zealand (39.5S, 177E)

Oceanic temperate

summer 25C/15C

winter 15C/6C

No frost, no heat

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I'm sorry for the loss of life and destruction suffered by the south Pacific islands.

The weather here can't get more perfect. As seen here in this photo taken by a mate of mine this morning.

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Heading for NZ tomorrow but our chilly seas help a lot. Might skirt along east coast with luck.

Doesn't sound that lucky to me :badday: It has got dry now so some rain would be nice,.... just not another 750mm in 36hrs event like we got back in April 2011.

Yes, been thinking of you and that calamity which was too soon forgotten.

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I'm sorry for the loss of life and destruction suffered by the south Pacific islands.

The weather here can't get more perfect. As seen here in this photo taken by a mate of mine this morning.

attachicon.gifFB_IMG_1426322938551.jpg

Crikey, that's professional quality!

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Some tracking models have TC Nathan intensifying up to Cat 5 and crossing the coast around the Whitsundays.........we need the rain as it has been a very dry wet season but I certainly don't want to cop a Cat 5 cyclone.

Andrew,
Airlie Beach, Whitsundays

Tropical Queensland

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The daytime temp has not gone under 31 here and we have been getting overnight dumpings of rain. Marcia brought enough rain to flood the river and both ends of my street were under water for 3 days. The humidity this year has been incredible even after it cools down late at night, unless there's a reasonable wind blowing, its so sweaty and sticky. Roll on winter.

Peachy

I came. I saw. I purchased

 

 

27.35 south.

Warm subtropical, with occasional frosts.

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Some tracking models have TC Nathan intensifying up to Cat 5 and crossing the coast around the Whitsundays.........we need the rain as it has been a very dry wet season but I certainly don't want to cop a Cat 5 cyclone.

Yes, the models have it heading south before heading back west in direction of the coast between Cairns and Innisfail. I thought Nathan was done. Lets hope it misses the main populated areas.

We didn't get anywhere near the rain originally forecast from TC Olwyn. We only got about 15mm but it was steady almost windless conditions when we got it.. Most of the heavy stuff broke off and went east to fall on Esperance. Friends of ours in Carnarvon lost their roof on their house. The town is only just getting power back now. The horticultural areas are decimated. All the banana crops are flattened, and the new plantings just recently put in have been washed away.

Yesterday we had the Tropical Low south of us and a high moving in north of us, so the wind was very strong after the low had moved on.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Looks like a few warm days coming up for us...

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Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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Yeah Steve, we were lucky too and just got the side of the main rain band...luckily as it has been very dry here since somebody turned off the rain! It is amazing how quickly things dry out, even after massive rain totals earlier this year. 17mm for the day will keep things going for a while, although with the forecast temps for today and tomorrow, the plants will suck it all dry pretty quickly, let alone the evaporation.

Daryl

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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TC Nathan will have those in Cooktown and north worried at the moment. I hope they fair OK. If it goes north around Cape Melville I hope the wild Wodyetias aren't wiped out. 260kph winds in the eye wall would snap a Wodyetia. :(

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Looks like Cape Flattery will be copping it again, like it did last year with Ita. The Wodyetias should be okay though, with some damage. They'll have been through this before.

The big worry down the track is that the models have it tracking over Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Ramingining which were devastated by Lam not long back. People are still living in emergency shelter, mainly tents. You can be sure those tents aren't cyclone coded. GFS was showing Nathan crossing the coast near Gove as an 80 knot system, and over the Elcho area as 60 knots.

What has never really been publicised is that Lam caused more damage cost-wise than Marcia. $82.6 million as opposed to $67 million. The damages bill shouldn't go up much more though, not that much left to damage now.

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It seems like virtually every day since ex tropical cyclone Olwyn came through it's rained. Today I wanted to round up weeds but couldn't due to the rain. It's coming down now and everything is really wet. The grass has grown since this morning and I mowed on Monday and it's due for it again. I spent the day weeding around the bamboo in the bamboo avenue area. Once I get a fine day with low winds I can hopefully start spraying again, but it will likely be a week day when I'm at work when that will happen. I'm sure Kikuyu grass grows at night when I'm sleeping.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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The weather here has been quite unstable lately too...extreme heat inland, high humidity, rain...the palms are loving it!

Had another 33mm yesterday, although I think southern Brisbane had a real deluge.

Watched this big purple storm track up the coast yesterday...we just got the edge of it, but it rumbled for several hours...wasn't much fun working in the high humidity, although the rain was nice!

post-42-0-01096600-1426987932_thumb.jpg

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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The weather here has been quite unstable lately too...extreme heat inland, high humidity, rain...the palms are loving it!

Had another 33mm yesterday, although I think southern Brisbane had a real deluge.

Watched this big purple storm track up the coast yesterday...we just got the edge of it, but it rumbled for several hours...wasn't much fun working in the high humidity, although the rain was nice!

attachicon.gifIMG_0614.jpg

Up until 2.00pm today we'd only had 24mm of rain this month, which isn't that much considering it's been over 30c for the last 22 days. Anyway, as luck would have it - mid afternoon the heavens finally opened giving us a much welcomed 42mm, with more to come. You little ripper !!!!!!

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Yeah Steve, everything was starting to dry out again...the last two days of rain has fixed things up again! :) We got another 28mm today which was great!

Stuart, the colours were amazing yesterday with the purple clouds and sunbursts really contrasting with the plants!

Daryl

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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The "Saga of Nathan" continues. It just keeps springing back to life defying all the odds, or predictions of the odds. Doing it's fourth rejuvenation now. Appears it may even go a fifth rejuvenation before all the dust settles.

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Wow, Nathan is certainly a slow moving cyclone..just seems to be hanging around...I would imagine that the prolonged high winds would cause a lot of destruction.

Another 15mm overnight here...a sunny morning but storms forecast for this afternoon...

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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TC Nathan is an odd one.

Summer has truly left my area. Gonna put the fire on tonight. I'm freezing.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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I'm glad I put the fire on last night

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Got a nice weekend coming up. Will probably get to about 30C. Have had the fire on for the last few nights. I probably didn't need to put it on last night but I had the flu so I'm feeling the cold. Yesterday was a beautiful 26C day. Today looks similar. The grass and weeds are growing at maximum throttle at the moment. I was speaking to a friend and he's been mowing 3 times a week. There's no way I can do that. Tomorrow I'll spend a few hours out there mowing.

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Probably had the last of the "Nathan" weather today. Haven't seen a cyclone so dry since TC Helen several years back. Nathan was already an "ex-" when it came through here but so amazingly dry. I've totalled 33.8 mm from it, although other nearby areas fared a lot better. But it looks like the end of our wet season now and unless some storms can come through in the next couple of weeks we're in for a long hot dry run up to October. So far I'm 83% of average rainfall, on a daily basis, for this wet season. Might be pumping a lot more water this dry season from what will be a lower water table.

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Looks like we are set for a wet Easter break here...Already had 62mm in the last day here, with more forecast. Some parts have had over 100mm,,,how times change!

Daryl

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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Another 70mm since yesterday and more to come...the creek is a raging torrent and the garden is S O G G Y...I'm not complaining though!

That makes 1503mm for the year so far

Daryl

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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Another 70mm since yesterday and more to come...the creek is a raging torrent and the garden is S O G G Y...I'm not complaining though!

That makes 1503mm for the year so far

Daryl

Half as much has fallen here with 762 mm so far this year and lots of growth this summer, all very good, hope we do have an Indian summer as I have plenty more to get in :)

Pete

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Another 13mm here overnight...still more rain forecast...all of the grass is rotting! I'm sure the plants would like to see a little sunshine!

Gold Coast, Queensland Latitude 28S. Mild, Humid Subtropical climate. Rainfall - not consistent enough!

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