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Mid Feb Arctic Blast - Fear in your heart


_Keith
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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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The closest GFS station to Cape Coral is FMY (Fort Myers) Page Field. It calls for 41F Saturday morning.

Page Field is across the river and on the east side of Rt 41. In general my area is a couple degrees warmer in winter as I am closer to the Gulf. Hope that's true this time. I am also on a freshwater canal which may also moderate temps in the back yard and lanai. Bokeelia should benefit greatly from being so close to water - at least zone 10b most of the time.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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I'm telling you, they are confused. That's last year's forecast. :) .......... it's not? :bemused:

Yes, they are confused for sure. Now up to 35 tonight, and up to 32 and 31 for consecutive nights next week. That is a 5 degree swing in 6 hours. At this rate, I doubt next week will even get below freezing.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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My local weatherguy states that the system that you mentioned, Keith, should blunt the heart fo the cold away from FL, so while we will get cold for a day or two (Wed night into Thur) it should not be a freezing event, perhaps 37-38F at the lowest in Tampa Bay. They have also trended Sun and Mon this weekend, milder, for the same reason. That system will push the cold east so we will get into the upper 60'sF - a HELL of a lot better than the original 57/35F! They are struggling with these forecasts. Now, when does it all go away - Oh guru Ray, when will this pattern switch. I though Ao was going positive shortly? :sick: :sick:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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AO is positive atm.. and might test +6. NAO is also positive, and looks to stay on the + side. Taking into account the week/two week lag time: Anticipate a switch NICE warmth starting around the 1st..

-Nathan

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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Does it seem that February's are much more bitterly cold and ruthless than January? Statistically, at least for around here, January is a bit colder on average, but STILL! Once February is over and done with, so is the threat of major cold.

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Does it seem that February's are much more bitterly cold and ruthless than January? Statistically, at least for around here, January is a bit colder on average, but STILL! Once February is over and done with, so is the threat of major cold.

Yeah I've noticed the same thing. You expect February to be much warmer, but instead sometimes you end up with the coolest temperatures of the season.

Brevard County, Fl

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Here I haven’t had a freeze since early January 2015, but we might go down to upper 30’s next week for a night or two. Lots of new winter growth going on here and flowers are blooming with the smell of sweet flowers in the air.

Crazy how cold it is in the South east, I’ve been there before so I feel for you guys. Hang in there it almost spring.

Edited by Palm crazy
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Don't know how the rest of you guys are doing with this "arctic blast", but it was shocking the temps this morning.

:wub2: Much warmer then the forecast low, like 8 F above.

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Low was 53.4 Predicted: 47

Tonight's prediction: 40

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Oh guru Ray, when will this pattern switch. I though Ao was going positive shortly

AO is positive now but the weather resulting from a negative phase doesn't show up for 1-2 weeks after. It's now 2 weeks after the double dipping AO of early February.

Also, the PNA has been very positive for the last month. That means a big ridge will continue in the west for the foreseeable future.

I'm just glad this pattern didn't evolve in January where the pattern and lower sun angle would have surely doomed us. Hard freezes in central Florida are very rare after Feb 10 and just about nonexistent after the 20th. Freezes in March are perhaps a handful per century. In other words, I'm counting my chickens.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Low of 42 predicted tonight, after that we have a few days in the 40's with Wed. night predicted to be 43. I can deal with this, but I'm ready for spring!

Keith 

Palmetto, Florida (10a) and Tampa, Florida (9b/10a)

Palmetto.gif

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Oh guru Ray, when will this pattern switch. I though Ao was going positive shortly

AO is positive now but the weather resulting from a negative phase doesn't show up for 1-2 weeks after. It's now 2 weeks after the double dipping AO of early February.

Also, the PNA has been very positive for the last month. That means a big ridge will continue in the west for the foreseeable future.

I'm just glad this pattern didn't evolve in January where the pattern and lower sun angle would have surely doomed us. Hard freezes in central Florida are very rare after Feb 10 and just about nonexistent after the 20th. Freezes in March are perhaps a handful per century. In other words, I'm counting my chickens.

post-1729-0-86027300-1423852149.jpg

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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What a brutal reality check! It was 44F at 7am, so I thought not so bad. Went out at lunch and POW! Barely in the lower 50'sF with a stiff wind (the school I teach at is about 1/4 mile from the Gulf) and it has stayed around 52F, as it currently is at 330pm. They are still saying like 37F low, not too bad, but it is VERY chilly out. February has been colder than January, for sure, and it has had very few days at or above normal. We need spring! That positive AO needs to catch up but quick. :hmm::hmm:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Must be shifting east or north of me again. New projected lows are 33 and 40 for consecutive nights. It was up a little earlier on the first night, then went back down again on the first night, but further up on the 2nd night. Lately, predicting the stock market seems to be more accurate than predicting the weather.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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After reaching 69 degrees here today, my local radio meteorologist is calling for 29-30 low ground and 36 high ground with wide spread frost. I'm not on the lowest ground but am in no way on high ground. I figure my low (extrapolating from historical low ground differences compared to my place) to be around 32 degrees in the open yard at around 7:30 a.m.

Sometimes I wonder how the temperature will fall 37 degrees from today's high, but it will. I've seen it reach into the low 70s and fall into the low 30s on radiational cooling nights, and tonight will surely be a radiational cooling night as there's no wind right now at 4:38 p.m.

Mad about palms

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We have a steady breeze off the Gulf at 10-15mph right now, as we have all day. Never made it above 55F this afternoon due to this breeze - is currently 50.9F at 5pm. I was just out doing some chores, and I am as frozen as a banana! My feet are still cold. We need spring! :floor::floor:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I'm telling you, they are confused. That's last year's forecast. :) .......... it's not? :bemused:

For you Doc, from the local weatherman.

Mardi Gras in Acadiana last year (Mar 4) the low was 30 the high was 36 with some morning ice and cold rain to mar the day...this year it's not looking too much better....based on the latest model guidance rain will be likely Monday afternoon/evening into the overnight period ending Tuesday morning, but it will be breezy & cold for our Mardi Gras afternoon with temperatures likely falling into the upper 30s and wind chills about 10 degrees colder...‪#‎mardigrrr‬

post-1207-0-99868000-1423864777_thumb.jp

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Must be shifting east or north of me again. New projected lows are 33 and 40 for consecutive nights. It was up a little earlier on the first night, then went back down again on the first night, but further up on the 2nd night. Lately, predicting the stock market seems to be more accurate than predicting the weather.

Then Trioderob is the man for predicting the weather - he has the stock market thing all figured out.

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Must be shifting east or north of me again. New projected lows are 33 and 40 for consecutive nights. It was up a little earlier on the first night, then went back down again on the first night, but further up on the 2nd night. Lately, predicting the stock market seems to be more accurate than predicting the weather.

Then Trioderob is the man for predicting the weather - he has the stock market thing all figured out.

I have him beat, I have the secret for growing Coconuts in California. Let's see him top that one.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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After reaching 69 degrees here today, my local radio meteorologist is calling for 29-30 low ground and 36 high ground with wide spread frost. I'm not on the lowest ground but am in no way on high ground. I figure my low (extrapolating from historical low ground differences compared to my place) to be around 32 degrees in the open yard at around 7:30 a.m.

Sometimes I wonder how the temperature will fall 37 degrees from today's high, but it will. I've seen it reach into the low 70s and fall into the low 30s on radiational cooling nights, and tonight will surely be a radiational cooling night as there's no wind right now at 4:38 p.m.

Feeling scared for your cocos!
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Here in Cape Coral I have a temperature of 51 at 7:30 pm with a West-North West wind at 8-13 MPH. Hope that wind and direction stays the same overnight. Forecast to hit 40 tomorrow morning.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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37F at 639am. Not too shabby! :interesting:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Looks like most of the Florida folks have made out pretty good. Hopefully Walt did not experience any frost.

Here we measured our lowest low for this cold season, beating out the previous by 2 F. Absolutely no complaints here, no additional cold protection measures needed here so far this year. The canopy has done its job. :greenthumb:

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Another front comes Wed night, and this one could be even colder! I am so ready for spring. Having all this cold so late sucks! This has been a weird winter for sure, but the NWS says to watch the next cold front midweek, as there is potential for "even colder" weather. :crying:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Here in my part of Cape Coral where it is wide open and no canopy yet I had a low of 38 and saw some patchy frost on the roofs this morning. And yes let's pray that next week's forecast for even colder Temps does not pan out.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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Fairly mild in Houston this morning with temps in the low 50s. It is going to be a nice day for working in the yard with 76 predicted for this afternoon. The mid week forecast has come up from 32 to 37. Is the air not as cold a earlier thought or is it just projected to be farther east again?

Ed in Houston

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Looks like most of the Florida folks have made out pretty good. Hopefully Walt did not experience any frost.

Here we measured our lowest low for this cold season, beating out the previous by 2 F. Absolutely no complaints here, no additional cold protection measures needed here so far this year. The canopy has done its job. :greenthumb:

Once again, the local meteorologist missed the forecast. After calling for 29-30 degrees low ground with wide spread frost, I bottomed out at 37.4 in the open yard and 40.6 under canopy. I have a blue sky vine growing on a trellis in the open in my back yard that is always the first to get burned by frost, and it shows no damage at the time I'm making this post at 9:39 a.m., so I feel there wasn't much frost, if any, let alone wide spread frost. Hopefully, this upcoming week won't bring much colder temperatures.

Mad about palms

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Briefly touched 40F right at sunrise. Weather station out on Anna Maria was at 51F at the same time. Hopefully the forecast for midweek is wrong.. Cold weather has worn out it's welcome.

-Nathan

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43.5 this a.m. (prediction 40)

Predictions: Sat = 47; Sun = 47

Mon & Tue nights upper 50s

Next Wed & Thur 42. Then 50, 57, 55 next weeked

Mon 2/23 down to 46

My sunroom is full of palms

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Must have barely touched freezing around here. Neighbor ran sprinkler and had ice but peach blooms still ok. May have dogged the bullet.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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