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Mid Feb Arctic Blast - Fear in your heart


_Keith
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Not a lot of wind associated with the coldest temps for my area.....that's a good thing...gulf proximity may help me during this event.

Depending on the ultimate low, I prefer wind as it helps to limit the radiative add on. Cloud cover, no rain, is even better. A clear cold windless night can be the worst when it comes to total damage because it usually results in a very hard killing frost.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Not a lot of wind associated with the coldest temps for my area.....that's a good thing...gulf proximity may help me during this event.

Depending on the ultimate low, I prefer wind as it helps to limit the radiative add on. Cloud cover, no rain, is even better. A clear cold windless night can be the worst when it comes to total damage because it usually results in a very hard killing frost.

Me Also...I can't stand those Cold windless night after the windiest day of the year.

Malabar, Florida. Zone 10a, East Central Florida.

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My local forecasters are now easing back just a little. Lows now expected more 37-39F with milder afternoons well into the 50'sf. Still very cold, and windy, but the cold appears to be pushing a little more east than south. I am sure Ray will see that better tomorrow. BN9 is usually spot on. This is good news! Not much to worry about at those temps at all, not even tender tropicals. :floor:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Yeah my forecast is also moving up quite a bit. Right now I am looking at a few days of upper 40's and one 43F. I may still make out with a 42F low for the season.

Brevard County, Fl

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Accuweather lows for Friday and Sunday morning now holding at 42F locally.. won't be surprised it they end up a degree or two higher in this part of town. At this time, worst of the cold looks to dive south and east of the state over the Atlantic. Some warmth returns after Monday but stays tempered until near the end of the month, at least if the extended forecasts are correct. By that time, official start to spring will be 20 days away.. Have a feeling a switch to a warm and potentially stormy pattern looms on the horizon after the 2nd.


-Nathan








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My forecast moved up a degree to 31. Now if it would just do that 2 more times.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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From the NWS Tampa Bay:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE FOCUS FOR THE

MID/LONG TERM TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO BE THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR

THAT IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT AS A SERIES OF COLD BUT

DRY FRONTS SHIFT THROUGH THE SE US BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER

REINFORCING FRONT ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE

MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS...SREF AND HPC

GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ADJUSTED

ECMWF NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT GFS

BUT EXPECTING EC TO PICK UP A BIT ON THESE WARMER NUMBERS LATER THIS

MORNING. REGARDLESS... CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WILL STILL RUN

APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID FEB NORMALS FRIDAY THROUGH

MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SYNOPTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

PLAYS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Saturday and Monday morning lows according to the latest GFS run:

Brooksville 31 - 38

Daytona Beach 35 - 38

Fort Lauderdale 49 - 57

Fort Myers 40 - 48

Jacksonville 33 - 29

Key West 56 - 62

Melbourne 40 - 45

Miami 49 - 57

Naples 45 - 50

Orlando 38 - 43

Pensacola 36 - 38

St. Augustine 37 - 34

St. Petersburg 42 - 49

Sarasota 38 - 46

Tallahassee 29 - 33

Tampa 40 - 48

Vero Beach 38 - 47

West Palm Beach 47 - 54

Winter Haven 39 - 44

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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What worries me a bit is next week on the 19th and 20th looking at GFS 850mb run for that time, even though none of the long range forecasts are showing any real cold for that time.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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Actual low: 51.3

Forecasted: 48

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Mine moved up too...yes! ..... I really need a break up here......30,39,39,36 .....if that first night would come up a bit wouldn't lose all the buds ect.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Mine moved up too...yes! ..... I really need a break up here......30,39,39,36 .....if that first night would come up a bit wouldn't lose all the buds ect.

Did it again, my low is now up to 32 and that is some really good news this time of year.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Up again, this time to 33. YES!!!! There will be blooms aplenty.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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LOL. WeatherBug has me down to 31 now. This is like watching a hurricane coming. Just gives us something to talk about. Crazy how 30 F is WAY different than 33 F and how no frost is WAY different than frost.

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Weather Underground has risen the forecast low up another 3 F since yesterday, 5 F in two days - so happy with that. Better then downward 5 F. This may be the last one to be wary of this season, at least I hope so ... post-1729-0-55466200-1423686782.png

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Holding around 42F for Friday night.. Sunday ranges between 44-49F atm locally.. Also saw the GFS attempting to throw another blast south sometime next week.. Not sure I believe it. That being said, anyone see what may lie toward the end of the 12Z run? Saw 84F suggested on one day right around the end of the month.. Mainly 70's after that, IF Accuweather's long range holds.. Cross them fingers, bow to your Palms.. lets send the cold packing.

-Nathan

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Tonight's forecast for zip 33990: 45

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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The first two shots of cold air are forcasted to hit more east toward Florida but the third shot is coming farther west to Texas. Just low 40s in Houston from the first two cold spells but the WU is now forecasting a 50% chance of snow showers in Houston Wed. the 18th 3am-7am with 32! Sometimes Houston is a prelude to weather farther east in Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.

Ed in Houston

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Friday night, Saturday morning Cape Coral forecast,

NOAA Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph

Weather Channel Clear, Low 38, NNW winds 5-10 MPH

Accuweather Clear, Low 39 N winds 8-16

Who to believe??? I want to believe NOAA!

And why does the Weather Channel say Tampa is going to be warmer than Cape Coral Friday Night?

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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And why does the Weather Channel say Tampa is going to be warmer than Cape Coral Friday Night?

I have two words for you....heat Island. I told you Tampa wasn't what it once was in the 1980's :winkie: . It most likely won't actually work out that way unless high pressure veers winds from a certain direction.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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No 30's here except for Saturday morning. GFS is calling for 44F tonight and 39F tomorrow evening.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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No 30's here except for Saturday morning. GFS is calling for 44F tonight and 39F tomorrow evening.

What does GFS say about Cape Coral?

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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And why does the Weather Channel say Tampa is going to be warmer than Cape Coral Friday Night?

I have two words for you....heat Island. I told you Tampa wasn't what it once was in the 1980's :winkie: . It most likely won't actually work out that way unless high pressure veers winds from a certain direction.

:) Yes I have to get the 80's out of my memory!

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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The closest GFS station to Cape Coral is FMY (Fort Myers) Page Field. It calls for 41F Saturday morning.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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The closest GFS station to Cape Coral is FMY (Fort Myers) Page Field. It calls for 41F Saturday morning.

Thanks Ray! Praying for warmer weather to return.

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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Some Space Coast GFS predictions for Sat morning:

Melbourne 41F

NASA 41F

Patrick AFB 45F

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Corrected, thanks. Where do they draw that line? Vero Beach?

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Starting tonight. .....30, 40,41, 36

Next thur........30 and rain!?.....what the#@@#/!

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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49.5 here. Prediction was 45.

Predicted low for tonight: 47

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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I am up to 34 tonight, but next weeks blast seem to be zeroing in here with projected lows dropping and now 34,27,36.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith, I wouldn't panic yet. The later in February it gets, the less likely one of these predictions will pan out.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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