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A massive El Nino is brewing out in the Pacific


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And Funkthulu, ill guarantee you that in 10 years this Man Made global warming hoax will have gone the way of the dinosaurs just as the ice age hoax of the 70's. The loons will of course be pushing the next crazy saving the planet hoax, thats just what they do. It is virtually impossible to predict natural weather patterns and all these computer print outs you rely on predicting man made global warming will be nominated for the comedy hall of fame.

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Back on topic, im also curious about how this El Nino manifests itself. Even though we can predict an El Nino to some degree, How that El Nino affects weather or rain cannot be predicted. Im really hoping this El Nino gives us the high rainfall and warm winter, we desperately need it.

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Gary,

You keep using the word "believe" as if my belief makes any difference. I can believe 4 is greater than 5 all I want, but it doesn't make it so. Additionally, I can believe that 5 is greater than 4, but if I don't understand why it is than my belief doesn't matter.

I acknowledge the facts of anthropogenic global climate change. I acknowledge that there are regional fluctuations both up and down over the surface of the globe (but the overall average is up). And I acknowledge that (to get back to point) it will be interesting to see how these changes will effect a large weather-related event soon to affect the west coast and the rest of the country.

So, if you want to keep quoting unreliable news sources and linking everything back to Al Gore and your general misinformed fears about things you obviously don't understand, please feel free to do so.

I, however, am not in the mood to argue about established facts with someone who's belief and actions cannot and will not have any effect on those facts in any globally measurable way. I would rather get back to the subject at hand.

So, how 'bout that El Nino?

I agree with you, you are welcome to believe and worry about all this silly nonsense all you want. In my lifetime the climate will be identical to what it is today. Worrying about climate change and thinking you can change it is so silly and meaningless i pay it no mind. So you can go ahead and believe what you will, keep inputting numbers into a computer, but it is meaningless excersize in futility and that is the true fact. So no matter what you think you know from all those silly studies, nothing will change in your or my lifetime that anyone will notice.

I do think the climate is changing, the evidence is already here. Having a debate about whether it's man-made or not is rather futile, and I tend to agree with Gary that there isn't much we can do about it because even our civilization represents a force we cannot control.

In fact, based on the papers I read, it would be foolish to lower CO2 concentrations at this point, because the cat is out of the bag, and decreases in CO2 will most likely send us into a violent swing the other direction. An ice age is far more likely to impact worldwide crops than warming. The problem is, when the oil, gas and coal runs out, guess what? As CO2 levels decrease, the compensating factors will go the other way, making the ice age inevitable.

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You guys need to Google "Livestock's Long Shadow". The real issue isn't fossil fuel.

Len

Vista, CA (Zone 10a)

Shadowridge Area

"Show me your garden and I shall tell you what you are."

-- Alfred Austin

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In 10 years there will be mass hysteria because the climate hasn't changed. It will be called "global stagnation". I do find it funny how people fear global warming so much but then rush out to use heating cables,green houses, frost cloths and other means to keep the cold out.

"it's not dead it's sleeping"

Santee ca, zone10a/9b

18 miles from the ocean

avg. winter 68/40.avg summer 88/64.records 113/25

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Just curious - with all these recent Global Warming discussions that have been allowed - has anyone changed their position, opinion, belief, or understanding of the situation?

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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I have. All these discussions have gotten me to actually read the scientific publications on the subject. I used to be skeptical, now I see the actual measurements showing the changes.

I am still unconvinced we can do anything about it, though.

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Climate has warmed slightly in the last century, been stagnant in the last 17 years. Probably will start warming again, earth appears to be in a warming cycle. Mans contribution to climate change is irrelevant, can 't be shown in real life, just faulty computer modeling by people with an agenda. But like Axel said, nothing we can do about it anyway so why the hysteria?

I also learned that after 40 years we are now allowed to eat hamburgers again because the saturated fat hoax was exposed, but then learned from Len that livestocks long shadow is causing global warming so now we can no longer eat hamburgers.

Finally i learned our Moderator is getting soft for not deleting this post a long time ago.

Edited by Gtlevine

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Show us your palms, show us your palms, show us your plams!!!

I have a cool string of beads to give away!!!

:)

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Gary, you have exposed your agenda. Just bring up global warming to get a thread deleted. :)

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T

Edited by Gtlevine

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Gary, you have exposed your agenda. Just bring up global warming to get a thread deleted. :)

Haha. I like pressing buttons. With Global Warming i really have no agenda, i didnt intend to spark up a debate. But i really dont understand it at all. This topic is like a religion to people, its insane. We can completely eliminate fossil fuels, collapse our economy, and send us back to the stone age, and it really would not make a difference at all in changing the weather. Some day some genius will invent a super battery and make an electric car practical and cheap and ill be the first on board to buy one. But for now, i dont know for the life of me why people are willing to give the Government any more power than they already have, it always ends bad for the people. Hasn't Solyndra taught us anything? This whole issue will be used by the politicians for crony capitalsm. They will just use it as another money laundering scheme like everything else, just to steal from us and line all their pockets.
Edited by Gtlevine

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Gary, you have exposed your agenda. Just bring up global warming to get a thread deleted. :)

Haha. I like pressing buttons. With Global Warming i really have no agenda, i didnt intend to spark up a debate. But i really dont understand it at all. This topic is like a religion to people, its insane. We can collapse our economy and send us back to the stone age and it really would not make a difference at all. Some day some genius will invent a super battery and make an electric car practical and cheap and ill be the first on board to buy one. But for now i dont know for the life of me why people are willing to give the Government any more power than they already have, it always ends bad for the people. This whole issue will be used for crony capitalsm. The politicians will just use at as another money laundering scheme like everything else.

Sweden passed a carbon tax in the early 1990`s, economy went on to grow 40% and carbon emissions dropped to pre-1990 levels. Germany is almost at 50% independence from fossil fuels.

Americans snoozed and let the Russians beat them to outer space, they're snoozing again because they're so scared from a few economic doomsayers alarmists. Oh well, those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it.

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Still curious - from what I see and read it appears that Mars is also warming, and the polar ice is melting. What's up with that - cars, cows???

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Sweden passed a carbon tax in the early 1990`s, economy went on to grow 40%

If that is true (from then 'til now), it works out to be less than 2% growth per year - not something to be bragging about. U.S. growth in the 90s was about twice that, and the first balanced budget with a surplus in decades.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Axel why compare an apple to an orange with the US to Sweden? I love it when people do the same for health care. Sweden wasn't a world power and a leader in industry. Now Sweden has an aging population thanks to low birthrate that won't allow it to sustain their utopia. Their answer? Open the flood gates to immigration. Ask how that is going. Every country has good with bad. Let a country of 9 million and covered in snow most the year run a carbon tax. More power to them. But let's stop the ridiculous comparisons. We will need to find our own unique solutions.

Len

Vista, CA (Zone 10a)

Shadowridge Area

"Show me your garden and I shall tell you what you are."

-- Alfred Austin

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Hey Axel, i dont know the facts about Sweden but lets say your right. The people of Sweden now have the pleasure of a carbon tax and what did it get them? NOTHING! Has not helped climate change one bit. Government found a good reason to steal more of their money, they got nothing in return. Do you really want to pay another tax Alex?

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Still curious - from what I see and read it appears that Mars is also warming, and the polar ice is melting. What's up with that - cars, cows???

I read that too. Thing is Dean the climate is changing all the time. Before gas and coal and the industrial revolution the climate was much warmer. The middle ages experienced a serious global warming. You can see old farm lands where ice has been melting. Now you have a political movement that takes a theory, plugs a bunch of data into a computer, wala, man is causing global warming and were going to be under water. Start with the propaganda, add in some photoshopped pictures, and scare the sheeple into running off the cliff. Problem is they got caught fixing the data, then they can't explain 17 years of no warming. But wait, they have a great explanation, its not global warming but climate change. Now if there are hurricanes, tornados, warm years , cold years, ice expanding, ice contracting, rain and floods, droughts, etc .... Its now all climate change caused by evil industry and man. If the propaganda campaign never happened their would not be one person alive that would say man, can you believe this global warming? Thats because this is nothing more than the an impending power grab and the religious sect of rabid followers.

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Hey Axel, i dont know the facts about Sweden but lets say your right. The people of Sweden now have the pleasure of a carbon tax and what did it get them? NOTHING! Has not helped climate change one bit. Government found a good reason to steal more of their money, they got nothing in return. Do you really want to pay another tax Alex?

Did I say I was in favor of carbon taxes? You're never gonna see me say anything in favor of taxes, unless it's getting rid of income tax and putting in place a fixed sales tax. Nor would I ever want to move to Sweden or Germany where I would be handing over more than 50% of what I earn. Switzerland's 10-15% bracket is much more to my liking, too bad the climate is so freakin' cold. (But that might change.) My point is that the economic doomsday sayers are no better than the global warming doomsday sayers. My perspective is somewhere in the middle of the issue. A lot of stuff you are saying is just repeating partisan bunk you've heard, and there's a bunch of bunk on the opposite side as well.

Still curious - from what I see and read it appears that Mars is also warming, and the polar ice is melting. What's up with that - cars, cows???

Dean, I don't believe in causation being derived from correlation. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that more than 7 billion people on this planet, 82.4 million barrels per day of oil getting burned up (30,076,000,000 barrels per year and rising) and 1.5 billion cows on the planet farting to their heart's content and humanity spewing 9.7 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually into the atmosphere isn't going to do anything. And it just happens that both the poles are melting, heat waves and super storms are becoming the norm, glaciers are vanishing and permafrost is melting.

Looking at these facts, saying that the two aren't linked is like watching a burglar empty the furniture in your house and pretending the burglar has nothing to do with the vanishing furniture. Come on, you gotta be in complete denial if you want to ignore the magnitude of the problem we face.

But trying to address global warming with taxes and other bullshit is complete nonsense. That's like trying to tackle the symptoms as opposed to the cause. You want to get a clear glimpse of the cause? Then look at the ticker on this website:

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

There's the real cause of the problem. I don't care if it's oil, gas, paper, water, food, you name it, if we don't figure out a way to either lower our collective footprint on the environment or reduce that population growth, we are royally screwed.

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pollution.jpg

Nice picture. I dont repeat partisan bunk Alex because im not partisan. I hate both parties, they do not have our interests in mind. I looked at this issue from the beginning, all evidence, studies, etc... I also looked at climate throughout our history and how it changes. The earth is a dynamic system and very complicated. At this point in time i just looked back at everything and used common sense to conclude that man is not causing any of this climate activity, or we just can not ascertain a correlation at this time. However, as an environmentalist i am always looking for cleaner ways to use energy and take care of our planet. BTW, i also don 't subscribe to the economic disaster propaganda. I made the extreeme example to highlight my point. I think if eliminated all fossil fuels it would be an economic disaster because we have no replacements yet, but it would not change the climate.

I also like your idea of a flat tax, but good luck getting than done with the idiots running our country. A flat tax would take away too much power from the Feds, they won 't let that happen.

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Dean, I don't believe in causation being derived from correlation.

Nor do I, but it is always a good place to start any investigation - and often times the correlation is in the causation - just not always.

But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that more than 7 billion people on this planet, 82.4 million barrels per day of oil getting burned up (30,076,000,000 barrels per year and rising) and 1.5 billion cows on the planet farting to their heart's content and humanity spewing 9.7 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually into the atmosphere isn't going to do anything.

That is just an opinion. How much is too much (if there even is such a thing) should be left to what is extremely complicated scientific discovery. There are many factors in play that can or could mitigate and/or balance things out. Even major events like a slight wobble in the Earth's axis, a volcanic event, a solar event, are all things that the Earth has experienced and was able to balance out in the long run.

To expect that the climate will stay benign, and never move more than a degree of the present comfortable situation, so that humans will not be inconvenienced, is pie in the sky - and it is especially wishful thinking to think that the world's politicians can guide us to that perfect balance.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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That's a real good piece, it does expose all the weaknesses of current climate change work. But it is also one-sided in that there is no representation of anyone who would argue in defense of the climate change position.

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I'm just waiting for Neptune's bones to melt.....now that would be cool!

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Dean, I don't believe in causation being derived from correlation.

Nor do I, but it is always a good place to start any investigation - and often times the correlation is in the causation - just not always.

But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that more than 7 billion people on this planet, 82.4 million barrels per day of oil getting burned up (30,076,000,000 barrels per year and rising) and 1.5 billion cows on the planet farting to their heart's content and humanity spewing 9.7 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually into the atmosphere isn't going to do anything.

That is just an opinion. How much is too much (if there even is such a thing) should be left to what is extremely complicated scientific discovery. There are many factors in play that can or could mitigate and/or balance things out. Even major events like a slight wobble in the Earth's axis, a volcanic event, a solar event, are all things that the Earth has experienced and was able to balance out in the long run.

To expect that the climate will stay benign, and never move more than a degree of the present comfortable situation, so that humans will not be inconvenienced, is pie in the sky - and it is especially wishful thinking to think that the world's politicians can guide us to that perfect balance.

Your perspective is not far off from mine. I do believe that human activity is causing warming and I think carbon taxes are bullshit, and won't do squat to fix the problem other than putting more money into the wrong hands. Global warming is inevitable, you can't put 7 billion people on the planet and not expect it to affect the climate. But to try to address the problem with carbon taxes is beyond absurd. But to just sit back and do nothing is equally absurd.

We need technology driven solutions, not the crap that comes out of politicians. For example, solar roadways:

Greenhouse warming isn't the problem, it's just a symptom. It's the use of fossil fuels that is the problem because not only is it dirty (drilling and transport), but it also fuels the middle East resource wars. You curb fossil fuel usage by providing sound alternatives, not by taxes. The next worst one is Gary's burger, but that's a whole different can of worms. :)

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Another good angle to take this discussion is looking at the ppm air quality of larger urban areas and realizing that the fact is, in many parts of the world they are at extremely dangerous levels and it looks as though this isn't going away anytime soon but only becoming more of a problem.

Tyler

Coastal Zone 9a

''Karma is a good girl, she just treats you exactly how you treat her"

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Another good angle to take this discussion is looking at the ppm air quality of larger urban areas and realizing that the fact is, in many parts of the world they are at extremely dangerous levels and it looks as though this isn't going away anytime soon but only becoming more of a problem.

You are right. There are lots of reasons to curb the use of fossil fuels. global warming isn't the biggest one.

- urban air pollution

- pollution from drilling

- pollution from transport

- pollution from oil byproducts

- energy resource wars in the middle east

- limited resource

Our entire economy's price structure is based on the price of oil. Wouldn't it be great to free ourselves from this dependency?

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Another good angle to take this discussion is looking at the ppm air quality of larger urban areas and realizing that the fact is, in many parts of the world they are at extremely dangerous levels and it looks as though this isn't going away anytime soon but only becoming more of a problem.

You are right. There are lots of reasons to curb the use of fossil fuels. global warming isn't the biggest one.

- urban air pollution

- pollution from drilling

- pollution from transport

- pollution from oil byproducts

- energy resource wars in the middle east

- limited resource

Our entire economy's price structure is based on the price of oil. Wouldn't it be great to free ourselves from this dependency?

I can agree on this also, I support getting off fossil fuels for these reasons. Good old Capatilism will solve this problem at some point. Some genious will figure out the flux capacitor, then it's Back to the Future!!!

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Global warming is inevitable, you can't put 7 billion people on the planet and not expect it to affect the climate.

Axel,

What I alluded to before was who is to say that your comment is factual? Is 7 billion people too many? Is it even alot? We may think so, and it may "seem" that way, but looking at it another way and it doesn't seem like many people at all when compared with the entire planet.

Below is all the people on Earth put in one location. From space it would be hard to find if you didn't know where to look. Who is to say the "by-products" from that tiny mound of people can't be absorbed by the massive quantities of algae in the ocean, or that increases in clouds at varying latitudes and altitudes will reflect energy or change patterns? Or that any number of self regulating variables may balance things out as they have for eons?

We may think of ourselves as a "big deal," but in the grand scheme of things, are we really?

And another point - it is a fact that as long as fossil fuels are cheaper than any alternative, someone will burn them. So, who would you rather have burn them, China, India, or Indonesia??? - or the U.S. - where pollution and carbon control is at least a consideration. But one thing I am pretty sure of - the politicians will use any additional power we give them to do much more than address this red herring (definition: something, esp. a clue, that is or is intended to be misleading or distracting).

All the people on Earth piled into the Grand Canyon.

post-11-0-95294700-1400533192_thumb.jpg

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Plus Dean, most of the people in that ant pile pictured are not even burning fossil fuels or using energy produced by them.

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Another good angle to take this discussion is looking at the ppm air quality of larger urban areas and realizing that the fact is, in many parts of the world they are at extremely dangerous levels and it looks as though this isn't going away anytime soon but only becoming more of a problem.

You are right. There are lots of reasons to curb the use of fossil fuels. global warming isn't the biggest one.

- urban air pollution

- pollution from drilling

- pollution from transport

- pollution from oil byproducts

- energy resource wars in the middle east

- limited resource

Our entire economy's price structure is based on the price of oil. Wouldn't it be great to free ourselves from this dependency?

Agreed.......the whole climate change debate takes center stage and these (more important issues IMO) take a back seat. Yet they are trying to accomplish most of the same goals....reducing oil use and dependence. Even most of us climate change denier's can agree with you on these problems and would more than happy to support solutions to these things.

"Vapors rise as

Fever settles on an acid sea

Neptune’s bones dissolve"

LOL

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Global warming is inevitable, you can't put 7 billion people on the planet and not expect it to affect the climate.

Axel,

What I alluded to before was who is to say that your comment is factual? Is 7 billion people too many? Is it even alot? We may think so, and it may "seem" that way, but looking at it another way and it doesn't seem like many people at all when compared with the entire planet.

Below is all the people on Earth put in one location. From space it would be hard to find if you didn't know where to look. Who is to say the "by-products" from that tiny mound of people can't be absorbed by the massive quantities of algae in the ocean, or that increases in clouds at varying latitudes and altitudes will reflect energy or change patterns? Or that any number of self regulating variables may balance things out as they have for eons?

We may think of ourselves as a "big deal," but in the grand scheme of things, are we really?

And another point - it is a fact that as long as fossil fuels are cheaper than any alternative, someone will burn them. So, who would you rather have burn them, China, India, or Indonesia??? - or the U.S. - where pollution and carbon control is at least a consideration. But one thing I am pretty sure of - the politicians will use any additional power we give them to do much more than address this red herring (definition: something, esp. a clue, that is or is intended to be misleading or distracting).

All the people on Earth piled into the Grand Canyon.

Dean, if every person in that ant pile uses the amount of resources we use in the West, the planet is doomed, no matter if there is global warming or not. Fossil fuel isn't going to remain cheap, that much we know, but you are right, if it's cheaper than the alternative, that's what people are going to use, so it behooves for us to find the "flux capacitor". What irks me more than anything is all this talk about CO2 taxes when we should be pulling together the best scientists from around the world and run a "Manhattan project" for alternative energy.

As for the climate, we don't need to agree on whether the current warming is man made or not. I believe the solution is to address alternative energy, that is IMHO the only way to address the issue. In the meantime, am more interested in the data that talks about the actual warming so that I know when I can start planting pigafettas here in Santa Cruz. :)

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post-235-0-97127700-1400547537_thumb.jpg post-235-0-68742700-1400547694_thumb.png

The following scientific organizations endorse the consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities":
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO
British Antarctic Survey
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Environmental Protection Agency
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
Federation of American Scientists
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
Geological Society of America
Geological Society of Australia
Geological Society of London
International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA)
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Royal Meteorological Society
Royal Society of the UK

post-235-0-54146800-1400547516_thumb.jpg

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Matts, i see you just regurgatated leftest propaganda. The scientists that dont believe the hype have quit those organizations, wont waste valuable time in agenda driven science, dont collect government funding driven by outcome based science, or are shut out because they dont go along with the party line. The current line that the science is settled is a way to not be exposed by weak arguments. The science of man man global warming is purely political at this point. Most of those organizations you listed should should be dismissed outright. Like the EPA. The fact they are on the list proves the whole thing is a scam.

Edited by Gtlevine

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Empirical Science demonstrates the following:

1) That the planet is currently warming (preferred argument of the left)

2) That the planet's climate cycles through warming and cooling periods (preferred argument by the right)

3) That symptoms of warming include more extreme weather and rising sea levels

4) That there is a geological correlation between CO2 levels and global temperature

Theoretical (unproven by empirical data) science demonstrates the following:

5) That there is a theoretical (calculable, computable) link between greenhouse gases and warming (argument used by the left)

6) Current warming is still below the "noise" level, i.e. the warming is within the normal fluctuations (argument used by the right - historical data is extrapolated, no one was around to actually measure it exactly)

7) Many theories abound as to how the warming will unfold (whatever suits your fancy, Navier-Stokes equations for atmospheric and oceanic circulation are highly non-linear.)

IMHO enough that we should be concerned and do something about it, but a carbon tax is BS because it won't solve the problem. Fossil fuel related emissions are alas a small part of the total global warming balance. Cows, concrete, forest conversion to pasture are just a few of the additional major factors that have a major impact on the climate.

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So, we've pretty much established that (except for Axel who took the time to look at the data and try to understand it without preconceived dogma) nobody in this thread is going to suddenly change their mind about Anthropogenic Global Climate Change. (because they'd have to admit they were wrong or something...)

So, that being said. Can we go back to talking about the El Nino?

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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