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Big Freeze of 2014 - I just as soon start the thread now


_Keith

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Axel, interesting, been referencing the CPC's diagnostic discussion also. Stormsurf as well. Page 27 in the CPC's Feb 3rd discussion raised a few I eyebrows when looking it over. Id add the link but not well versed in how to link pages.

Keith, wonder how a glass dome would handle another Katrina..

-Nathan-

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70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

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I am sick of this winter. Our average Feb low is 47. We are not forecast to go above 45 for the high tomorrow. Good news is that it will be sunny, so it will probably hit the 80s in my greenhouses.

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70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

Ouch, not long ago all the "experts" very predicting that Florida was done with this cold stuff. Weather predicting is really a difficult and non-exact science.

Corpus Christi, TX, near salt water, zone 9b/10a! Except when it isn't and everything gets nuked.

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Axels Angels Trumpets....sounds like a fusion band

Been great Rhopy weather here....dense fog and coolish/warmish temps. Perfect Rhopy weather about 6 months out of the year here...makes me wonder if I can grow a Rhopy........ :rant: Doh....forgot about the damn Artic Vortex and the Icicle Freeze of weeks past.

Maybe should start a new topic.....best Cold Hardy Cool Loving Palms

Just build a glass dome over your entire yard. I fantasize abouit that.

You fantasize about building a glass dome over my yard? ......... that's kinda creepy.... :floor:

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Read the same thing from NOAA, not convinced in their opinion atm since none of the forecast models I have looked over drive any real cold into the state anytime soon. Yea, it might drop back to the mid/upper 60's for a day or two this month.. maybe hit 47-45F on one or two mornings.. That isn't cold..

Just ran the 12z models (850, MSL,500mb) Still not showing signs of another cold spell.

-Nathan-

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70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

Ouch, not long ago all the "experts" very predicting that Florida was done with this cold stuff. Weather predicting is really a difficult and non-exact science.

Weather is a very non-exact science, so I wouldn't put too much weight on the long term forecast. Just sayin' we "might" not be out of the woods on the drought here and if so, the Southeast isn't done with freezes either. In case anyone questioned why weather is so hard to predict, the equations for fluids are such that if you change even the tiniest of values in the initial conditions you put into the equations, the end results will be wildly different. This is why they say that a butterfly flapping its wings in Texas could cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Read the same thing from NOAA, not convinced in their opinion atm since none of the forecast models I have looked over drive any real cold into the state anytime soon. Yea, it might drop back to the mid/upper 60's for a day or two this month.. maybe hit 47-45F on one or two mornings.. That isn't cold..

Just ran the 12z models (850, MSL,500mb) Still not showing signs of another cold spell.

-Nathan-

Nathan, you're too far South to need to care, by mid February I doubt the cold can push down that far with the lower latitude radiational heating. It's North Florida, Louisiana and Texas that are still exposed. Here's what the NWS Monterey Bay is saying:

FINALLY, A BIT TROUBLING THAT THE MODEL TRENDS ARE NOW STARTING TO

REBUILD THE PACIFIC RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SETUP

WE HAVE HAD MUCH OF THE WINTER -- TROUGH OVER ALASKA, RIDGE IN THE

PACIFIC/WEST COAST, TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EASTERN CONUS. LONG

RANGE GEFS HIGHLIGHTS THIS TREND WITH OVER 70 PERCENT OF THE

MEMBERS KEEPING OUR AREA GENERALLY DRY LOOKING OUT FOR THE DAY

10-16 PERIOD.

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I thought my wife had had a stroke when she saw our January electric bill from heating my greenhouses! Supposedly coldest January ever down here as far as averages go.

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Axel, interesting, been referencing the CPC's diagnostic discussion also. Stormsurf as well. Page 27 in the CPC's Feb 3rd discussion raised a few I eyebrows when looking it over. Id add the link but not well versed in how to link pages.

Keith, wonder how a glass dome would handle another Katrina..

-Nathan-

You know how to cut and paste? Copy the link and just paste it into the text, there's nothing special to do.

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So, how cold is it out there this winter. I have a friend in Montana, where they are always prepared for cold. This was her morning post.

"So the water pipes are frozen in my house so I need to run out to all of the hardware stores to get supplies! My car finally turned over. (what a day!)"

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Mad about palms

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More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

True, things were damaged here that i had never seen damaged before, even Queensland umbrella trees that grow in the woods were badly damaged that winter and the last before that.

Malabar, Florida. Zone 10a, East Central Florida.

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Now that February is in full swing, it is apparent we did dodge the bullet. While the low so far has been 34.5F (it was accompanied with nasty wind) I never saw frost in my yard - only a few times in open fields. Heliconia look scraggly, but the middle growth is fine, which means blooms come spring and summer. My Mango is too tall to see if blooms have set fruit. I hope so. No plam damage other than some yellow on Dypsis, and those are outer fronds. No orchid damage on trees. No Bromeliad damage. Just had another inch of rain this past 3 days of GLOOM (as in zero sun). So far today, clear and sunny and 65F at 1030am. We need some sun badly. Gloomy winter so far. :rant:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Weird how coastal panhandle of Florida was spared ultimate lows during that time. We never got below 25 in my yard during those years. The freezes were protracted however. This year was much more devastating...damaging to even large Phoenix palms around here.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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I got down to a 36F low here it Merritt Island this winter, which is typical for this location. Inland Brevard county ranged any where from 27F in the north, to 33F to 37F in the South, all typical for the area.

Brevard County, Fl

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The local large palm reseller. I am guessing he will have a tough spring.

post-1207-0-06743700-1391992722_thumb.jp

post-1207-0-86370900-1391992738_thumb.jp

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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My God, it's coming again. Another low of 29.

3566_259289780899607_1622833721_n.jpg

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Went past a Palm Nursery by the Austin, Texas airport today. They had a low of 12F. Their palms looked like Keith's, but they were the more hardy varieties that were toasted.

Current Texas Gardening Zone 9a, Mean (1999-2024): 22F Low/104F High. Yearly Precipitation 39.17 inches.

Extremes: Low Min 4F 2021, 13.8F 2024. High Max 112F 2011/2023, Precipitation Max 58 inches 2015, Lowest 19 Inches 2011.

Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXCOLLE465

Ryan (Paleoclimatologist Since 4 billion Years ago, Meteorologist/Earth Scientist/Physicist Since 1995, Savy Horticulturist Since Birth.)

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Keith, that palm nursery looks bad. BUT....... in the background I see one of the nicest curved trunks on a queen I've ever seen! Where is that?... Hway 90?

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It is on Highway 19 at Nee Iberia Yes that alarm Bismarck then is fried. there is also a fried royal palm in that row of tall palms.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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I knew it was going to be a tough winter when we got cold during thanksgiving.

Tyler

Coastal Zone 9a

''Karma is a good girl, she just treats you exactly how you treat her"

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More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Walt what would you say was the percentage of dead palms in your yard after that winter?

Did you protect your Royal/Royals?

Edited by Xhoniwaters1

Tyler

Coastal Zone 9a

''Karma is a good girl, she just treats you exactly how you treat her"

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More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Walt what would you say was the percentage of dead palms in your yard after that winter?

Did you protect your Royal/Royals?

I can't put a percentage on the palms that were killed, but I lost all (about eight of them) my Veitchia palms (some with 5 feet of trunk); lost 3-4 Archontophoenix cunninghamiana with 4-5 feet of trunk. with some of similar size that were extremely cold damaged. Two of them to this day have not recovered, they are just hanging on. Two other, somewhat larger, have big swellings in their trunks (I would think they would have gotten a constriction) but have returned to normal trunk diameter above the permanent swelling. These two palms suffered from manganese and boron deficiency in the new fronds, which were stunted and bellow pattern shaped.

My mature royal palm was totally fried, as were both of my mature A. alexandrae palms. My mature A. cunninghamiana palms were 90% fried. I lost my oldes majesty palm, also, with 5 feet of trunk; this palm was exposed. I have many other majesty palms that were partially defoliated but otherwise not permanent cold damage. These are planted in sheltered areas.

My large traveler's palm, large white bird of paradise were 100% fried. The list goes on and on with regard to zone 10+ landscape shrubs like ixora, crotons, ti plants, etc. All my hugh P. seloums were fried. Of course, the come roaring back in months.

Mad about palms

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Walt thats good info thanks! I assume when you say your mature royal was fried...it came back? That's encouraging considering you had multiple nights in the low twenties.

Tyler

Coastal Zone 9a

''Karma is a good girl, she just treats you exactly how you treat her"

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Weather Channel still saying 29 for Thursday morning, local folks are bit more optimistic. Either way, I see a cold spring ahead.

katc_eight_day.jpg?49157492.098402102014

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.post-97-0-58522400-1392076223_thumb.jpgpost-97-0-10065500-1392076288_thumb.jpg

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.

Yep, and the residual damage keeps on appearing. Add my little T. latisectus and now my large A engleri to the list of palms that will have to grow a 100% set of new foliage. Mules, Butias, Rhapis, Sabals, C radicalis and micrspadix still in champion status.

Note - I do have one mystery Sabal that is showing damage. Probably my first clue to narrow down its ID.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.attachicon.gif20140210_171719.jpgattachicon.gif20140210_171707.jpg

I believe if you read Walt's posts carefully the data he is talking about is actually from 2010.

Corpus Christi, TX, near salt water, zone 9b/10a! Except when it isn't and everything gets nuked.

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Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

Edited by Xenon

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

There are some very small pockets of 9b, but most is 9a at best. Bear in mind though, that zones are averages and every zone has their freak events. 2010 was anything but ordinary.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.attachicon.gif20140210_171719.jpgattachicon.gif20140210_171707.jpg

David, this really sucks, just after planting all those large palms, the very first year you got hammered.

Maybe you need to go to Cosco and buy peroxide in bulk, I bet all those spear pulls will come back for you with all the heat you will soon get. Spear pull in my climate is a death sentence, I don't even bother, I just remove the palm and start over. But that's because it would take way too long to recover in my heat forsaken climate. At least in the Southeast you're gonna get so much heat that most if not all palms will readily regrow spears if you treat with peroxide early.

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Word, xenon, I thought about it. I was in galveston for 5 years and it only went below freezing once. There are king palms and royals down there.

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Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

What is its all time record low?

Brevard County, Fl

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Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

There are some very small pockets of 9b, but most is 9a at best. Bear in mind though, that zones are averages and every zone has their freak events. 2010 was anything but ordinary.

Just out of curiosity, where would you classify zone 9B in Louisiana? Maybe the southern part of the delta?

Brevard County, Fl

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