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Potentially cold week for Florida next week


SubTropicRay

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Never made it above 45F today, and with 34F as the low, Brutal cold with wind. Tonight might be worse? It is overcast now, so that could help! :indifferent:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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After 16+ years living here, advective cold events have always been the least cold damaging (of course, we've had nothing like the Dec. '89 advective cold event).

My low this morning was exactly 40 degrees, taken on the same thermometer in the same spot I recorded my all-time low during the long string of radiational freezes I experienced in December of 2010, when my low was 20.8 degrees F.

My high today was 54 degrees. Tonight's low is forecasted to be 38 degrees (last night they forecasted 33). Since the wind is now coming out of the northeast, I'm hoping at least it doesn't go below freezing. I learned many years ago to be very wary of low temperature forecasts, because I've been thrown a curve more than once.

Mad about palms

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In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

Always the bearer of such great news! Seriously, I've seen that. I don't even want to think about it right now. I got sick right in the middle of this week, and still have much to do to get everything back to normal in the yard and GH. ARGH! :violin:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

Always the bearer of such great news! Seriously, I've seen that. I don't even want to think about it right now. I got sick right in the middle of this week, and still have much to do to get everything back to normal in the yard and GH. ARGH! :violin:

I don't think it's that bad unless you're scared of a few readings into the mid 30's in North Florida. The 00Z Jan 18 GFS shows a moderately amplified pattern with an arctic low brushing South Carolina but not dipping down further. However, as the runs progress day to day, the pattern becomes more amplified, removing rain out of the California forecast and dropping heights over the Southeast. The good news is that the mid South from Texas to Louisiana is not affected so far.

The good news is that the blocking pattern is nudging slowly eastward with each amplification, but at the rate it's going, it won't dissolve until late Winter, which is bad news for California when it comes to rain.

gfs00.38.gif?t=1389287142

Surface Temperatures +7.5 days:

mos_gfs_min_8d.gif

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How do you access that map on the Unisys website? Is there a comparable map for the ECMWF?

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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How do you access that map on the Unisys website? Is there a comparable map for the ECMWF?

ECMWF +6 days 500mb. Seems to have an even more amplified pattern.

ecmwf_500p_6d.gif

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The Euro is almost always the colder model. How can I access those maps on the Unisys site?

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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....I was puttin down some fertilizer yesterday afternoon! :) Lettin that slow rain soak it in

- Ray.

Brandon, FL

27.95°N 82.28°W (Elev. 62 ft)

Zone9 w/ canopy

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thanks

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Did you see the rain in Palm Beach today? The town of Hypoluxo, just outside West Palm Beach, recorded 22" of rain! Good gawd. We were 82F with wall to wall sunshine today! After freezing Tuesday barely in the 40's all day? This is getting way too bizarre...... :drool:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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This week is going to get pretty darn cold. Forecasting 30's for much of inland Tampa Bay Wed thru Sat nights, and a few days not even 60F. Secondary reinforcements abound. It could be worse, but this up and down stuff is getting old............ :rant:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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This week is going to get pretty darn cold. Forecasting 30's for much of inland Tampa Bay Wed thru Sat nights, and a few days not even 60F. Secondary reinforcements abound. It could be worse, but this up and down stuff is getting old............ :rant:

I know what you mean. Same here and I thought the 2nd half of January was forecasted to be warm for us. Tired of the nonsense.

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The forecast is actually getting warmer for the weekend. How'd that happen?

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Suppose to touch freezing mark along the coast a couple of times this week. Ready for March.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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60 days & counting. March 15th is the benchmark date, according to Ray.

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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I know we're in the middle of this latest cold snap but....there's another potential near freeze coming next Wednesday night. Just sayin'.....

Ron, I stop worrying about freezes on Feb 20. There have been 2 freezes here after that date in the last 40 years.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Accuweather has another piece of the Polar Vortex coming down, and this time it looks like a larger piece. It is forecast do dive down deep into the south and Florida. Is this going to be a big push of polar air OR a glance? Hmmm what'cha thinking Ray? :sick:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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We had a light frost where my garden is on the cars. I won't be back until Friday to see what the damage is but I'm hoping it wasn't bad because the low was 37.

Keith 

Palmetto, Florida (10a) and Tampa, Florida (9b/10a)

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Down to 38F around sunrise but didn't see any frost in the colder spots in the yard or on the car. Does look like another episode of cold for the area next week but noticed a couple 80F highs and more 70s are resurfacing on the Accuweather long range. Atm, 06Z W.U. model is following the 00z run last night and hinting at a possible, albeit gradual, pattern shift. Enough with the roller coaster ride..

-Nathan-

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What time did you guys check for frost? My dad saw it at 6 this morning.

Keith 

Palmetto, Florida (10a) and Tampa, Florida (9b/10a)

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My car was wet and the temp was 40F, but I saw some very light and barely visible frost on an open field on Pine Island at 630AM. It was "real" frost though as I got out of the car and felt it!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Accuweather has another piece of the Polar Vortex coming down, and this time it looks like a larger piece. It is forecast do dive down deep into the south and Florida. Is this going to be a big push of polar air OR a glance? Hmmm what'cha thinking Ray? :sick:

Oh, wonderful.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith, (Sarasota) Checked everything around 7am. If there was any around, it had disappeared by then.

-Nathan-

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What time did you guys check for frost? My dad saw it at 6 this morning.

7 it was so light in certain spots on the rooftops it was gone by 9.....I checked the grass and palm fronds nothing. lets see how Saturday turns out, calling for 36 Saturday night.

I brought all my coconut sprouts inside and they can stay there for awhile.

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I am seeing that when this next round of chill blows thru midweek, there may finally be a break in the pattern. A piece of the western ridge high could float north into Alaska, allowing a zonal pattern to set up across the Cont 48 - Pacific air. This will allow the southern half to stabilize and warm some, while the north stays less cold. Patterns like that also bring rains to California. It should take a good week to see if this does occur, with warming beginning in about 10 days. Right now it is 49.8F but the wind is HOWLING at 25mph. Not nice out at all. Freeze warnings out again for inland Central Florida into Highlands County, with coastal areas anticipating 35-40F. Sunday and Monday should be milder! While it has not been a deep freeze, it has been a longer cold spell. I keep looking ahead to Feb 20th. That is when we usually begin breaking into less cold. :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Beach weather will be here in February. This type of pattern now almost guarantees a warmer than normal Feb.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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NOTHING is guaranteed anymore with the weather....BUT let us get the warmth started soon. February features higher sun angles, so if it does warm, it feels warmer. Brrrrrrrrrrrr for now! :yay: :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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It was 37 yesterday at my house, forecast is 36 by morning, it was still but nothing more than light frost in the lowest spots, no damage to anything more than a lone apple banana plant in the open...

If frost forms tonight, i hope it will be as light as yesterday..

At least it isn't 2010...

Malabar, Florida. Zone 10a, East Central Florida.

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Beach weather will be here in February. This type of pattern now almost guarantees a warmer than normal Feb.

Now you're talking. I start cleaning up the garden already. Neatened up the porches. Shocked the pool. I am ready for spring, baby. Now about that forecast for 29 Wednesday morning? Well the heck with it. I am done protecting and all that biz. What makes it to spring along with me can enjoy it just as much as I do. As for everything else, well compost has to come from somewhere.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Weird how clearing out Brazilian Pepper along the property line helps one forget that it didn't reach 60 today.. On the bright side, a few more 80s showing up in the forecast after another week of cooler weather ahead. At this point, looks like the worst of the cold stays north and east next week. Agree with Ray that a pattern like this is often followed by a nice warm up. Tired of the cold and ready for the beach. Hang in there Keith!!

-Nathan-

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Weird how clearing out Brazilian Pepper along the property line helps one forget that it didn't reach 60 today.. On the bright side, a few more 80s showing up in the forecast after another week of cooler weather ahead. At this point, looks like the worst of the cold stays north and east next week. Agree with Ray that a pattern like this is often followed by a nice warm up. Tired of the cold and ready for the beach. Hang in there Keith!!

-Nathan-

Hmmm, let's see, Nathan moved to Florida, and must have taken the California Winter weather with him. :)

On a more serious note, I just looked at the GFS, there are hints of the pattern finally going zonal by about Jan 28th, but the ridge off California is still there, albeit flattened quite a bit. No telling what happens after that, but until then, looks like the pattern stays in place. So hang in there, hopefully your nice Florida weather will be back in February, and we're hoping for some much needed rain out West. I've got several landscape projects I've put off because the soil is just too dry and rock hard to work with it, and the agriculture and the forest needs the rain in a bad way.

Nathan will be laughing at us Northern Californians in a month or two, relishing the warm Florida sun while we will be drenched in rain.

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So, predicted low by wunderground is 36F and we're 36.3F and dropping.... at 11:46 PM!

Frank

 

Zone 9b pine flatlands

humid/hot summers; dry/cool winters

with yearly freezes

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LOL, Thanks Axel. Yes, I admit it, it followed me here, delayed by a couple weeks of course.. Its gotta go before I get in trouble with the locals, haha.

Have been following the models also and are awaiting the rest of the 00z to come through. Agree that while it stays cold up north, a more zonal component seems to show up further south.

While wavering between leaving the ridge, or some degree of it, in place over the west, seeing more and more consistency in the model runs in possible rainfall to the state as well. Hoping it isn't just a fluke this time. Was looking over the W.U. underground stations the other day and could not believe I was seeing 90F readings on a few stations down towards Morro Bay .. let alone 87 in Monterey.. It has been warmer along the coast than it has been in Palm Springs!! That's absurd! for anytime of year, esp. during the middle of WINTER.

Knowing the area and how sopping wet, and cold the soil usually is this time of year, I can imagine how "cement-like" it must be with the lack of rainfall. Fingers crossed.

-Nathan-

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It has felt like winter most of the time the last few weeks here, yet we have not even flirted with freezing here. Temp around 40F right now. The palms look okay, but definitely a bit annoyed with the chill. I am not wishing for the hot, it will be here soon enough. It is nice to be having some winter weather to break up the monotony.

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Temps completely leveled out. Currently 38.2F. It was 40.0F at 1am when I woke up. I've noticed at FAWN that parts of Highlands county dropped to freezing, while Palm Beach county was close, yet here along the Tampa Bay coast mostly 38-42F. Clear as a bell out. No frost. Anticipatng 66F today, so I can get some yard work done. Yesterday was too damn cold for that. One more shot of cold air this week, and then perhaps the zonal flow takes over by next weekend. Still no freezes or frosts here this year, which is rare. I usually get a few frosts each winter even if it is mild. :)

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Let's see, it's warmer in many locations in Alabama than in Palm Beach County right now at 6:30 in the morning. These appear to be very tight weather systems.

Brevard County, Fl

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