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Dec 2013 California Freeze Watch


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38F in the greenhouse with the heater on in san marcos,,,in twin oaks valley it is STILL 30F at 7:15am....glad i put the heater on last nite....colder here than in riverside? amazing.

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My freeze sensor mounted on the wall of my house turned my spa on at 6am. Has to drop to 35 or below to do that. First time that has ever happened to me since I built the spa 15 years ago.

MLW

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36f for the low at about 5:30am. Didn't see any frost. Sunday night looks like it was the worst. I sure hopr this is the only cold event we have this winter.

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Man, what a difference a dry cold versus a wet cold makes. Last year, my low for the winter was 34F but a damp, frosty one and it caused damage to a lot of my landscape plants and even bronzed some of my king palms. This current freeze event has left my yard nearly unscathed. This morning's low was the worst at 30.9F but there is no visible frost at all as with the previous night's just over 31F reading. Only a few banana leaves are curling and browning, heliconia look great, and most importantly, no damage to any palms. All indications are that the worst has passed and there's a nice warmup on its way with possible 70 degree weather this weekend. Long range forecasts don't show any particularly cold outbreaks either. Let's shift our attention to rain. We need it and lots of it.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Very dry here too, with no dew or frost seen even in the valleys. 42f for this morning since some high clouds rolled in overnight. Cycads are still flushing, so that's good news.

Matt Bradford

"Manambe Lavaka"

Spring Valley, CA (8.5 miles inland from San Diego Bay)

10B on the hill (635 ft. elevation)

9B in the canyon (520 ft. elevation)

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

Hollywood Hills West, Los Angeles, CA USA

Southwest facing canyon | Altitude 600 - 775 feet | Decomposing granite
USDA Zone 10b | AHS 6 | Sunset Zone 23 | Köppen Csb | No frost or freezes
Average Low 49 F°/9.4 C° | Average High 79 F°/28.8 C° | Average Rainfall 20"/50.8 cm

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Slowly dropped to 25 last night. Hope this is the last night.. this is really old

No kidding, it is getting old. There is another freeze warning for tomorrow Morning everywhere except near the coast. Thrusday Morning there is a frost warning. That's what the Sacramento office is saying. It's a cold Winter.

A chilly morning is expected again tomorrow but should
 be a little warmer than this morning but areas of the valley will
 be in the mid 20s warranting a continuation of the hard freeze
 warning. High pressure weakens some on Thursday as a weak wave
 brushes by the north and into the great basin on Friday. This will
 bring some clouds and a slight chance of showers to the Coastal
 Range and Shasta County Mountains Thursday night. Temperatures
 will be a little warmer Thursday morning but some areas around
 Sacramento and the Northern San Joaquin Valley will dip into the
 upper 20s. Areas of frost are expected again Thursday morning. 
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Temps back in the mid 60s at last here along the coast. At least it's nice outside during the day now. The summit didnt drop below 40F last night, a sign the upper atmosphere is warming up nicely.

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Had ice this morning in a puddle of water on my jetski!!!! Yikes didn't expect that and really was surprised!

Didn't have my temp gauge working. Just replaced batteries and it didn't match the other gauges so something isn't right.

post-347-0-63424400-1386722245_thumb.jpg

Joe Dombrowski

Discovery Island Palms Nursery

San Marcos, CA

"grow my little palm tree, grow!"

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Hey guys, sorry I have not been able to participate in the discussion as I have been extremely busy. Hope the palms didn't get fried too badly. Hey check out the 276 hr forecast of the GFS on Dec 22, 12 days out! That does not look too good for central valley and most of California. Meteorologists like to look at a vertical profile of temperature and that is the second image. This sounding is in the Central Valley new Sacramento and has a temperature of roughly 26F. Thankfully the GFS is not reliable that far out however it did begin to pick up this recent freeze 12 days out. The last several model runs have suggested that perhaps another freeze sometime right before Christmas. No telling if it will materialize or not as a forecast that far out would most likely be luck, but I bet we will have another freeze in CA before the end of the month. The pattern is just too progressive and the troughs are digging too deep with strong high pressures on the back side.

sounding1_zpsd0cc4dba.png

sounding_zps6849f903.png

sounding2_zpsa75d08d6.png

Oooo, purty

Meteorologist and PhD student in Climate Science

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Ha ha, trying to scare us, eh? Nice try. :) The GFS is Old Man Winter's favorite model, it's always way cold. It started the arctic outbreak dance back in October already but except for this last freeze it was always the outlier. And throughout the freeze, the GFS was also running way too cold. I personally favor the ECMWF for no other good reason than the fact that it is more reliable, and it seems to be what the Climate Prediction Center is favoring as well. Oh, and it's not statistically likely to get another set of record breaking temps this close. However, I do agree that we are going to get more cold storms this Winter and regular type freezes, the kind where snow level drops followed by cold air that settles, but not under an amplified ridge, but under the usual ridges that follow such storms. I am sure a few more inside sliders are in store for us, but not with the upper air pump support out of Canada like we just had. For what it's worth the numerical models choke on the the current intense blocking patterns, so I am not surprised they're so far apart. But don't listen to me, I am just an amateur weather guy and I am burned out from this last freeze.

Worth looking at the blocking patterns: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/block.shtml. I don't understand it so much other than the jet stream flow behaves sort of like a river with these persistent undulations and it can be modeled using the same type of flow dynamics.

What is far, far more concerning is the fact that the numerical models do agree on the lack of precipitation for the next two weeks. We are in a serious drought and could be looking at water rationing next year if the reservoirs and snow packs don't replenish. The lack of water is going to kill a lot more palms than the cold. Based on what the numerical models are cranking out, there is very little likelhood of getting a decent pineapple extress anytime soon. I'll make a WAG that the real rains won't kick in until late Winter to early Spring. it's gonna screw up all the crops. Everything will be in bloom and then we'll get torrential rains.

814temp.new.gif

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I hope you're right Axel. It is nice to be done with the 20s, and I don't think I can handle another freeze. But 9-10 days out is a long time in the weather forecasing world, and I think another possibility of this happening again is not likely

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Back to normal out here. Low at 5am is 42f. Feelin good

"it's not dead it's sleeping"

Santee ca, zone10a/9b

18 miles from the ocean

avg. winter 68/40.avg summer 88/64.records 113/25

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What a difference elevation makes this Morning, 50F at 1200 feet. Lower elevations especially inland are 25F and even lower. That's a 25 degree spread over 1000 feet.

Not to scare off anyone, but this Morning's run of the ECMWF is now also showing the artic outbreak for California. It's statistically still pretty unlikely to see this come to pass, but when both models start to show a feature, the long term forecast confidence rises. Apparently, due to the recent strong blocking patterns, the GFS has been the more reliable long term model.

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48f this morning. It hovered in the low 50's all night and we even left our bedroom slider open for the cat and it wasn't too cold. Is it summer yet?

Matt Bradford

"Manambe Lavaka"

Spring Valley, CA (8.5 miles inland from San Diego Bay)

10B on the hill (635 ft. elevation)

9B in the canyon (520 ft. elevation)

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Rub it in.... I had another 30f morning today. So far my averages this month has been 52/32f!

The normal average for the same 11 days is 59/41f.

Forecast has us warming the rest of the week. Looking forward to the 60's again!

Jeff

Modesto, CA USDA 9b

July/August average 95f/63f

Dec/Jan average 55f/39f

Average lowest winter temp 27f

Record low temp 18f

Record high temp 113f

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It got down to 26 for the ultimate low with 5 nights dipping below freezing in the frost pocket I planted my palms in this Summer. This was what i thought was a mild 9b climate in Santa Barbara. I hope nothing is dead.

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

We're gonna have to send relief crews into Southern California to help them deal with the afternath of the freeze. All those poor Southern Californians traumatized by temps below 70F, pretty catastrophic.

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Just to make a note, the GFS 850 several days out was updated to show the high pressure pushing the cold east and not letting it in. And TWC later updated +10 degrees

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It got down to 26 for the ultimate low with 5 nights dipping below freezing in the frost pocket I planted my palms in this Summer. This was what i thought was a mild 9b climate in Santa Barbara. I hope nothing is dead.

Don't loose faith in your spot, it was cold everywhere. My lower frost pit garden has never seen 26.6F before, at least not since I've lived here. I was up in SF at Darold Petty's last night, that's a USDA 10a zone and it froze up there too.

Time to go post some hardiness updates.

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

We're gonna have to send relief crews into Southern California to help them deal with the afternath of the freeze. All those poor Southern Californians traumatized by temps below 70F, pretty catastrophic.

Puts things into perspective doesn't it? This applies to lots of people and reporting up here on the Northern CA coast too.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

Facebook Page

Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

We're gonna have to send relief crews into Southern California to help them deal with the afternath of the freeze. All those poor Southern Californians traumatized by temps below 70F, pretty catastrophic.

Puts things into perspective doesn't it? This applies to lots of people and reporting up here on the Northern CA coast too.

Well, I am from Maine originally, and the first time I visited Monterey/Santa Cruz/San Fran it was August and I was shocked at the temps! Maine is warmer in summer :mrlooney:

Ive since been back a number of times and have grown to appreciate that type of climate however.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

We're gonna have to send relief crews into Southern California to help them deal with the afternath of the freeze. All those poor Southern Californians traumatized by temps below 70F, pretty catastrophic.

Puts things into perspective doesn't it? This applies to lots of people and reporting up here on the Northern CA coast too.

Well, I am from Maine originally, and the first time I visited Monterey/Santa Cruz/San Fran it was August and I was shocked at the temps! Maine is warmer in summer :mrlooney:

Ive since been back a number of times and have grown to appreciate that type of climate however.

Almost everywhere in the US is warmer in the summer than our coastal areas.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

Facebook Page

Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Brefily touched 39°F around 5:30. 55°F now.

No frost and some of the plumerias are still opening blossoms. Pineapples in the open fine.

We're gonna have to send relief crews into Southern California to help them deal with the afternath of the freeze. All those poor Southern Californians traumatized by temps below 70F, pretty catastrophic.

Puts things into perspective doesn't it? This applies to lots of people and reporting up here on the Northern CA coast too.

Well, I am from Maine originally, and the first time I visited Monterey/Santa Cruz/San Fran it was August and I was shocked at the temps! Maine is warmer in summer :mrlooney:

Ive since been back a number of times and have grown to appreciate that type of climate however.

Our climate here in the Mountains is just about perfect during the dry season: balmy and pleasant beach weather during the day, pleasantly chilly at night. And this is ceroxylon country! We get to grow this: http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/19560-darold-petty-garden/

sp_45_0.jpg

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  • 1 month later...

Temps at night back in the low 30s are expected coming up this weekend. The wind actually feels pretty cold already. Dug out the frost blankets for my two philodendrums. Not sure if I should cover anything else.

Zone 9b (formerly listed as Zone 9a); Sunset 14

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Axel, you're the smartest weather guy here so what do you think of this GFS850? Looks bad to me...

o7le91.jpg

Been watching this and so far doesn't seem particularly alarming, cold Friday but rain in the forecast afterwards. Forecasts are very unreliable right now, nothing concrete to hang on to.

Forecast is for seasonable temps, run of the mill cold weather slightly below normal, chilliest Friday into Saturday.

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Checked WUnderground for my area and used their BestForecast for an extended look and maybe it's just wishful thinking on their part but for not this Sunday but starting next Sunday they have forecast a week of rain basically (80-60% chance thru out). Highs in low 60s and nighttime lows in the 40s. We can wish...they have this weekend and coming week with lows near low 30s. Guess it is winter...

NSW doesn't forecast out that far. Where exactly does BestForecast come from?

Zone 9b (formerly listed as Zone 9a); Sunset 14

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Well Axel, guess id forgot to mention that i mailed the cold back to CA.. :floor:

Seriously though, doesn't look too bad, typical for this time of year. Also appears the models keep storms rolling through for a little while there. Possibly a good one for So. Cal near the end of the last model run. ( Fingers crossed) Returning warmth here + some rainfall there = a return to something more normal for all. :greenthumb:

-Nathan-

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Checked WUnderground for my area and used their BestForecast for an extended look and maybe it's just wishful thinking on their part but for not this Sunday but starting next Sunday they have forecast a week of rain basically (80-60% chance thru out). Highs in low 60s and nighttime lows in the 40s. We can wish...they have this weekend and coming week with lows near low 30s. Guess it is winter...

NSW doesn't forecast out that far. Where exactly does BestForecast come from?

Debbie, this is pretty normal weather for us, I don't see anything along the coast indicating anything lower than 42-43F. The Gilroy forecast indicate mid 30's, those kinds of low in early February all seems like Apple pie. We always have a cool down in early February, which is usually followed by some decent rain.

Well Axel, guess id forgot to mention that i mailed the cold back to CA.. :floor:

Seriously though, doesn't look too bad, typical for this time of year. Also appears the models keep storms rolling through for a little while there. Possibly a good one for So. Cal near the end of the last model run. ( Fingers crossed) Returning warmth here + some rainfall there = a return to something more normal for all. :greenthumb:

-Nathan-

Nathan, I knew the day would come when it would bounce back to normal, and I wasn't gonna gloat about the longest run of mid-Winter 75-80F days I've ever seen because I knew you'd rub it back in the other way. :)

I absolutely loved it, but I was surprised as to how little impact it had on the plants. The nights in the Winter are so long and the sun angle so low making for cool soil temperatures that the day warmth didn't really make that much of a difference. In fact, the Winter sun appears detrimental to some palms. The tropical stuff looks much better during our normal wet Winter chill. At least all the blue stuff looks fabulous in the low Winter humidity.

I still lost all the stuff that is known to croak in our Winter chill. Oh well, it was worth trying.

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