Floridian scare #3

[SubTropicRay]

The NWS is clueless as are most weather prediction services.  Remember last night's 20% chance of rain?  Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

[ZoneTenNut]

I'm afraid tonight is going to be another nail biting event.  

But after this, looks like low to mid 80's as far out as the eye can see.  

[spockvr6]

(ZoneTenNut @ Feb. 18 2007,13:00)

QUOTE

But after this, looks like low to mid 80's as far out as the eye can see.  

This is the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel!

[spockvr6]

(Ray, Tampa @ Feb. 18 2007,13:00)

QUOTE

The NWS is clueless as are most weather prediction services.  Remember last night's 20% chance of rain?

Yes....I got it over here as well....nothing too heavy, but 0.16" between about 2-4AM.

[SubTropicRay]

That light is another train.

[spockvr6]

(Ray, Tampa @ Feb. 18 2007,13:11)

QUOTE

That light is another train.

hehehehheee

[ZoneTenNut]

Look at this. I'm really tired of the cold. Hopefully I'll be close enough to the coast to not see damaging temps.

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

1148 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

FLZ063-066-067-070-190100-

/O.UPG.KMFL.FZ.A.0003.070219T0800Z-070219T1300Z/

/O.NEW.KMFL.FZ.W.0003.070219T0800Z-070219T1300Z/

GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-EASTERN COLLIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...LA BELLE...

BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...BELLE GLADE...IMMOKALEE

1148 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY. THE

FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THIS FREEZE WARNING IS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN SOUTH FLORIDA:

GLADES...HENDRY...EXTREME NORTHERN COLLIER...AND WESTERN PALM

BEACH COUNTIES.

NONE OF THE METROPOLITAN AREAS ARE INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL

USHER IN A RATHER COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND IT

BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS

INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED

TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY

MONDAY MORNING...FOR THIS REASON A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THREE OR

MORE HOURS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY AND ONE OR TWO HOURS ACROSS

HENDRY...NORTHERN COLLIER...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SOME

OF THE COMMUNITIES TO BE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED BY TEMPERATURES AT

OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE PALMDALE...IMMOKALEE...BELLE

GLADE...AND PAHOKEE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN

SPANISH... VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR

HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER

SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[spockvr6]

(ZoneTenNut @ Feb. 18 2007,13:31)

QUOTE

Look at this. I'm really tired of the cold. Hopefully I'll be close enough to the coast to not see damaging temps.

I just checked NWS and the range of temps is 33 (extreme NE part of the county) to 45F (extreme southern part of the county) for Pinellas.

As of now, my area is, as usual, down the middle and is forecast for 38F by NWS and weather.com.  Accuwetaher says 40F and weatherunderound is giving me the big finger at 33F.

[ruskinPalms]

What are you guys' thoughts on covering with simple cotton sheets? I feel that I may have caused more damage to my cocos by covering them the other night. The most burnt areas are where the sheets were touching. Same with an adonidia.

[ruskinPalms]

NWS has 36F forcast for me tonight with wind in the forcast. They have been pretty spot on during the last cold events for me so I guess it will be 36F here tonight.

[ZoneTenNut]

(spockvr6 @ Feb. 18 2007,13:39)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Feb. 18 2007,13:31)

QUOTE

Look at this. I'm really tired of the cold. Hopefully I'll be close enough to the coast to not see damaging temps.

I just checked NWS and the range of temps is 33 (extreme NE part of the county) to 45F (extreme southern part of the county) for Pinellas.

As of now, my area is, as usual, down the middle and is forecast for 38F by NWS and weather.com.  Accuwetaher says 40F and weatherunderound is giving me the big finger at 33F.

We've got about that same huge spread in temps in PBC as well, with extreme western areas at or below freezing and coastal areas in low 40's.

Looks like a really cold night ahead. Here are forecasts for my little slice of paradise or should it be "frozen tundra".  

weather.com  40F

NWS  36F

Accu  40F

Wunder 37F

[Bushnell-Dave]

43.1 as of 8:17 pm here in Bushell,FL . 33513

Forecasts are as follows....

NWS 26

W.Com 31

Accu 28

Wund 25

Took a beating on the protected palms 2 nights ago as the NWS was close to the forecasted 24 degrees as I hit a low of 26.2 .I bet there too low with the forecasts tonight,as has been usual all season.Carpenterias,Adonidias,Veitchias,Archonphoenix varietys,are all unhappy right now.I hope the NWS lives up to its recent reputation tonight.This running 3 smugde pots(10 gal diesel each),1 kerosene heater(15 gals),is getting old fast.Not to mention the 3 fans blowing hot air out of the house,8 strings of christmas lights,7 heat lamps,2 electric heaters,and a halogen dual bulb lamp for the green house.Also use 50 sheets to protect the 41 palms in the ground I have to protect.Im ready for spring!!!!!

[ZoneTenNut]

(ruskinPalms @ Feb. 18 2007,14:50)

QUOTE

What are you guys' thoughts on covering with simple cotton sheets? I feel that I may have caused more damage to my cocos by covering them the other night. The most burnt areas are where the sheets were touching. Same with an adonidia.

Bill,

I've never covered anything before, but I've heard when you use plastic, is shouldn't touch the leaves, but I have not heard this with cotton sheets. Could the damage have just been due to the low temps, to the point where the sheets couldn't have prevented it?

Roger

[BS Man about Palms]

Larry-

That Pacifica looks great!!

KEEP THE ROPE LIGHTS AWAY FROM IT!!!!  

[SunnyFl]

(Alicehunter2000 @ Feb. 17 2007,09:46)

QUOTE

Note to administrator.......we need a crying emoticon <----this just doesn't quite get the point across

Yeah, I already asked for that - for nights like these.  Also a "rollin' eyes" - esp. for a neighbor who thinks my spindle is a "real nice coconut."  Uh-huh.

Alicehunter, I'm sorry about those 20s up your way.  That's nasty, bone-chilling palmkilling cold - brrrrr.

Well, the other day I posted that we'd had 34.5 for a low.  Had just bought a new thermom - stupid thing doesn't work.  This evening before running an errand, I noticed it said 47.   Say WHAT?   Then got in my car - car thermom (accurate unless the sun is beating down on it) said 53, which seemed more plausible.  Just a few feet away - 6F difference.   Hm, don't think so.  Which would mean our "34.5" wasn't really.

A little while ago the NOAA radio said 36 - 41F for Pinellas tonight.  Let's hope it verifies - but I have serious doubts.

[spockvr6]

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 18 2007,21:05)

QUOTE

Well, the other day I posted that we'd had 34.5 for a low.  

Sunny-

It might have been low, but perhaps not by much.  This cold apparently seeped pretty far south down Pinellas.  

An amateur station at the corner of 45th Ave North and 7th Street N logged 33.2F, one near 102nd Ave N and 66th Street N logged 34.0F, and shockingly one station just south of 102nd Ave NE and east of 1st St NE St N logged an appalling 29.8F.  The warmest reading I can find in the area is 36.7F just north of 62nd Ave NE and east of 1st St NE and this station looks to be on or vert close to a canal.

I tend to dismiss the 29.8F reading as being bogus as it is not inline with the other area readings.  Perhaps this station has their sensor very close to the ground, or it is just out of calibration.

As usual....the downtown St. Pete reading was way out there at 44.1F.

[spockvr6]

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 18 2007,21:05)

QUOTE

A little while ago the NOAA radio said 36 - 41F for Pinellas tonight.  Let's hope it verifies - but I have serious doubts.

I am with you!  Heres hoping the forecasts dont pan out.

As of this hour for 34689---

NWS - 38F

Weather.com - 37F

Weatherunderground.com - 34F

Accuweather.com - 40F

At 951PM, it is 49F here with moderate NW winds, whose speeds seem to ever so slowly be trending down.

[spockvr6]

(BS, Man about Palms @ Feb. 18 2007,21:03)

QUOTE

Larry-

That Pacifica looks great!!

KEEP THE ROPE LIGHTS AWAY FROM IT!!!!  

My wife told me to throw them away

[ruskinPalms]

(ZoneTenNut @ Feb. 18 2007,20:44)

QUOTE

(ruskinPalms @ Feb. 18 2007,14:50)

QUOTE

What are you guys' thoughts on covering with simple cotton sheets? I feel that I may have caused more damage to my cocos by covering them the other night. The most burnt areas are where the sheets were touching. Same with an adonidia.

Bill,

I've never covered anything before, but I've heard when you use plastic, is shouldn't touch the leaves, but I have not heard this with cotton sheets. Could the damage have just been due to the low temps, to the point where the sheets couldn't have prevented it?

Roger

Zone 10,

Probably it was just plain old cold in my yard the other night. Easily probably mid to upper 20's at below 1 foot of elevation. My only concern with the sheets is that it tends to flatten things out a bit more. Fronds that jutted out at 45 degrees were suddenly pushed more horizontal, and more so as the sheets got saturated with dew and grew heavier. It was definitely fronds horizontal to the sky that got the most damage. Nothing is covered tonight. It is supposed to be a bit warmer tonight than the other night and tender stuff I left uncovered the other night had no particular damage attributable to this last cold spell and no frost. But, I think if it was forcast to be any colder (like 32 or below) I would have covered them again. I think that during really cold events, like into the upper 20's, covering would be an advantage as at those temps the foliage will get fried anyway, most likely, covered or uncovered. In the 20's, I would cover in the hopes of keeping the growth bud alive so that it could regenerate itself. It definitely gets cold in my neighborhood. I think things will improve dramatically as all of the live oaks that the community planted grow and form canopy. At this time, the community is a barren, st. augustine landscape dotted by baby live oaks. Zero canopy, and the community itself is surrounded by 1000's of acres of open agricultural land. I recorded 32.2F 15 to 20 feet from the southeast shore of a 2.5 acre pond. When I was looking for a house, I tried hard to get a place on with some water. I haven't seen a big advantage to having this pond in my backyard yet. Canopy is incredibly important as I am coming to find out. I need canopy! By the way, how fast do avocado trees grow ???

[spockvr6]

(ruskinPalms @ Feb. 18 2007,22:36)

QUOTE

By the way, how fast do avocado trees grow ???

Dang fast!

My neighbor planted one 3 years ago and its over 20 ft tall now.  

Pity for me that his yard is to the south of mine!

[ruskinPalms]

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 18 2007,21:05)

QUOTE

(Alicehunter2000 @ Feb. 17 2007,09:46)

QUOTE

Note to administrator.......we need a crying emoticon <----this just doesn't quite get the point across

Yeah, I already asked for that - for nights like these.  Also a "rollin' eyes" - esp. for a neighbor who thinks my spindle is a "real nice coconut."  Uh-huh.

Alicehunter, I'm sorry about those 20s up your way.  That's nasty, bone-chilling palmkilling cold - brrrrr.

Well, the other day I posted that we'd had 34.5 for a low.  Had just bought a new thermom - stupid thing doesn't work.  This evening before running an errand, I noticed it said 47.   Say WHAT?   Then got in my car - car thermom (accurate unless the sun is beating down on it) said 53, which seemed more plausible.  Just a few feet away - 6F difference.   Hm, don't think so.  Which would mean our "34.5" wasn't really.

A little while ago the NOAA radio said 36 - 41F for Pinellas tonight.  Let's hope it verifies - but I have serious doubts.

Sunny,

I deluded myself into believing that my first thermometer read too low when I bought it. Now I have one those fancy weather stations. The 2 thermometers are usually within 0.5F of each other. Oh, and the car thermometers are pretty useless (at least mine seems to be). My weather station recorded 32.2F the other morning, and at the same time my car thought it was 41F. I am still zone 11 according to my car. Ha ha ha, I wish... But, car thermometers have their place because they are useful when driving around areas to judge what places are warmer than others, relatively speaking. If you want to check your thermometer out, put the sensor a zip lock baggy and sqeeze as much of the air out as possible then seal it. Put that in a slushy ice and water bath with as much ice as possible (I don't recommend that you dunk the whole damn thing like I did as it made my old thermometer really put out some wild readings - it said 124F in the ice bath..). Give it a good long time to stabilze since it is not in direct contact with the ice bath and If you are within a degree or 2 of 32F either way then you better believe what it says. I think the manufacturers quote a +/-2F variance in most of these these anyway. Like Larry said, there were plenty of low to mid 30's all the way down the pinellas peninsula. If you had your thermometer in a truly open area, then 34.5 would be totally plausible. I think the only safe places on these windless nights are literally within a block of very large bodies of water (larger than 2.5 acres, ha). Good luck tonight to all and spring is but a day or 2 away!

[ruskinPalms]

(spockvr6 @ Feb. 18 2007,22:39)

QUOTE

(ruskinPalms @ Feb. 18 2007,22:36)

QUOTE

By the way, how fast do avocado trees grow ???

Dang fast!

My neighbor planted one 3 years ago and its over 20 ft tall now.  

Pity for me that his yard is to the south of mine!

Sounds great Larry. I bought one of the more cold hardy(supposedly) varieties from Walmart today. It will be replacing a little live oak in the back of my house. Waiting for that little live oak to grow canopy is agonizing...I thought about planting a royal poinciana but that may be too tender for my area.

[spockvr6]

(ruskinPalms @ Feb. 18 2007,22:56)

QUOTE

I think the only safe places on these windless nights are literally within a block of very large bodies of water

There is an amateur station in Crystal Beach (just a very short drive (5 minutes) from my house in the right direction), and almost every time the readings there are 3-5F warmer than my yard.   Yesterday morning, this station logged 38.3F, while I was 34.3F.  And, this station is not smack dab on the water, but less than 1/4 mile.  

The next nearest station, that is pretty much on the Gulf, logged 40.1F.

If I only had an extra 3-4 million lying around for my Gulf front home!

[SunnyFl]

(spockvr6 @ Feb. 18 2007,21:46)

QUOTE

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 18 2007,21:05)

QUOTE

Well, the other day I posted that we'd had 34.5 for a low.  

Sunny-

It might have been low, but perhaps not by much.  This cold apparently seeped pretty far south down Pinellas.  

An amateur station at the corner of 45th Ave North and 7th Street N logged 33.2F, one near 102nd Ave N and 66th Street N logged 34.0F

Really - 34F?  I used to live near 102nd & 66th - and that area's microclimate is a cold sink compared to where I live now (about 15 min. away).   So if they had 34, no way I had 34.5.  Probably upper 30s though - it was brrrrr-cold.

My dear husband just brought in many potted palms:  dypsis (saintlucei, seedling fine-leaf, onilahensis - I brought in the baby albofarinosa) and areca (vestie, triandra, guppyana) plus the sargentiis and an armload of crotons.... Just In Case.  I don't trust this weather - or this forecast at all.

You are smart to have a weather station!  I had one - but could never get the anometer (sp!) to work - at the height of Jeanne, with winds of 75+, the stupid thing recorded..... 6mph!  Ummmm, talk about useless!  And we couldn't figure out the directions for the display.  Then my husband left the thermom sitting in water and that was that.

Oh - your wife was right.  Throw them out. (I hope she meant the rope lights..... not the pritchardia )

[Bushnell-Dave]

Hey Ruskin.

Just to confirm some of your observations.I have a pond about one acre in size behind the house here.It seems to have no affect at all on any palms planted beside it.I have a lil finger sticking out into the middle of the pond.I had a small foxtail planted right on the end of it last year when the Feb 15th frost came,and it got hammered.This Friday I dug it up and put it back in a pot and stuck it in the green house for safekeeping.As far as the frost and sheets,I have a 8ft ct Veichia that I had covered well in a sheet.Had 2 strings of Christmas lights around the fronds,and a 250 watt heat lamp under the sheet.The sheet had frost all over the top of it Sat morning.When I uncovered it later that afternoon,I was suprised very little damage at all.I still cant believe that frost was able to form on top of that sheet with all of that heat under it with little to no winds.

[ruskinPalms]

Yeh Dave, I am a bit disappointed by the pond's effects on these windless nights. But to be honest, I don't know what the temp is away from the pond in my same neighborhood. Maybe it was more like 29F the other night in people's yards that do not have a pond in my neighborhood. I guess I should not have expected miracles. I think my yard would be OK if I had some decent canopy though.

[spockvr6]

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 18 2007,23:11)

QUOTE

Really - 34F?  I used to live near 102nd & 66th - and that area's microclimate is a cold sink compared to where I live now (about 15 min. away).   So if they had 34, no way I had 34.5.  Probably upper 30s though - it was brrrrr-cold.

Well...if you like the "sound" of the Albert Whitted reading......just use that one.

It is the "official" reading for St. Pete you know  

[Bushnell-Dave]

My dear husband just brought in many potted palms:  dypsis (saintlucei, seedling fine-leaf, onilahensis - I brought in the baby albofarinosa) and areca (vestie, triandra, guppyana) plus the sargentiis and an armload of crotons.... Just In Case.  I don't trust this weather - or this forecast at a

I put a one gallon D. Albofarinosa out in the driveway Friday night when we hit a low of 26.2 degrees to see how it would do.It got very slight leaf burn.Thats it.Not much to worry about with them in St  Pete

[Jimbean]

This one is actually looking worse than the day before yesterday!

[Jimbean]

This is at 5:00 AM

[ZoneTenNut]

Well, that map about tells the story. For the most part, not as bad as had been predicted, in most areas.

My predicted temps:

weather.com  40F

NWS  36F

Accu  40F

Wunder 37F

At 6:28AM I'm at 42.7F and have been holding there since 5:45AM.  

[spockvr6]

(Jimbean @ Feb. 19 2007,05:11)

QUOTE

This one is actually looking worse than the day before yesterday!

I agree Jimbean at least as far as the depth of the cold.

Where I am it it a bit warmer (looks like the low will be 37-38F rather than 34F as was the case Sat AM), but looking at the stations acros the state, the cold sunk more deeply down south on this one.  There are stations as far south as Kendall and Florida City which are right now flirting with the freezing mark.

But, Miami AP looks to have bottomed at only 42F.

[spockvr6]

Surprisingly, Moore Haven is currently sitting at about 29F.

[Jimbean]

(spockvr6 @ Feb. 19 2007,06:27)

QUOTE

(Jimbean @ Feb. 19 2007,05:11)

QUOTE

This one is actually looking worse than the day before yesterday!

I agree Jimbean at least as far as the depth of the cold.

Actually, it was the dew points, and I mixed those up with the temperatures and then panicked.  opps  

[Jimbean]

Port St John bottomed out at 34.8

Rockledge at 34.1

Titusville at 34.6

[SubTropicRay]

39.9 in the garden at 7:02 AM EST

[ZoneTenNut]

Still holding at 42.7F at 7:05AM. Big warmup starts tonight with winds coming from the NE/E. Mid 70's tomorrow, then 80's on out. Dare I say winter is over?

[SubTropicRay]

I tried the "winter is over" thing last week Roger.  The very next day the ugly 30's showed up in the forecast.  I'll be more confident when the first hurricane forms in the Atlantic.

[ruskinPalms]

35.8F at 5:11am was my low. Very light frost seen on rooftops and cartops, none on grass, palms or other plants as far as I can tell. Glad this one is in the books.

[Guest briancoconut]

29.5 in North Port UGH!!!!!!!!!