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Floridians beware


SubTropicRay

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Scott,

The good thing is last night ended up being a tad bit warmer than the NWS anticipated (43F actual, 40F forecasted).  The low temps have been 2-5 degrees on the warm side of the forecast all winter long (knock on steel).  

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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(gsn @ Jan. 26 2007,13:29)

QUOTE
Surprised the shuttle site isn't even higher as it is on Merrit Island ,surrounded by the Atlantic and Indian River Lagoon. Guess water didn't help that much last night?

Perhaps it is because the winds were more NW than NE at that site?

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(gsn @ Jan. 26 2007,13:33)

QUOTE
I was just going to tell Larry he could sleep in the REAL house,until Monday night! :laugh:

Oh boy....I better check my propane bottles and test run a few heaters if I am going to be stuck out there.

The next week or so, even if we dont get a terrible blast, still looks to be on the cold side, both day and night.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 26 2007,13:43)

QUOTE
 The low temps have been 2-5 degrees on the warm side of the forecast all winter long (knock on steel).  

I have noticed that weather.com has been high lately....maybe they are "catching on"?

But, they were still too high last night (forecast 44F and ended at 41 and some change).

Of course, if their "base" forecast point is further west than where I am, thern they would have almost nailed it.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry,

Perhaps, but even if the winds were from the NW or even due N ,they would come over either the Indian River,or Mosquito Lagoon. Both fairly big bodies of water,naturally not as big as the Gulf or Atlantic,but.

I know water has a major influence on our Florida temps,usually proximity being key.  But in an advective event the water plays much less of a role! Maybe some senarios other than that, cancel out the water effect too?

Wait this might be getting into ENSO's, troughs, artic masses,jet streams,  polar highs, NEVERMIND ???

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Larry, I am lonely here under the sand, please put your head back under the silica goggles of balmy breezes.

It got down to 43 or so here, I think.

Alan

Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

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(Alan_Tampa @ Jan. 26 2007,14:07)

QUOTE
Larry, I am lonely here under the sand, please put your head back under the silica goggles of balmy breezes.

Be right there :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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It looks like the forecasts for tonight have been lowered a bit....might be as cold tonight as last night up here.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(spockvr6 @ Jan. 26 2007,15:52)

QUOTE
It looks like the forecasts for tonight have been lowered a bit....might be as cold tonight as last night up here.

Larry,

See what happens when you put your head back in the silica!

But say what??

The NWS had you at 38F last night,they have you at 43F tonight.

Are you just seeing if we are paying attention? ???

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Officially 39.38F at my house this morning at 7:28 AM, NWS had me forcast for 38F. Damn wind turned northeast early this morning then had the nerve to go calm just before sun up. Rapid cooling in my cold sink here. I shouldn't complain as a couple miles inland from me people probably saw a light FROST judging by what the FAWN readings were this morning. This has been a very generous winter so far. I think I am realizing that I may have planted way out of my zone last spring and summer. I think I will focus on planting only palms hardy for my area in the future ( for the most part anyway :) ) so that I have something left after an AVERAGE winter.

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 26 2007,18:53)

QUOTE
Officially 39.38F at my house this morning at 7:28 AM, NWS had me forcast for 38F. Damn wind turned northeast early this morning then had the nerve to go calm just before sun up. Rapid cooling in my cold sink here. I

Bill,

Even if the wind hadn't  shifted, and then died off, your temps probably would still have dropped.

I  have noticed a phenomenon that the coldest temps of the night are usually right around (morning twilight) and  just after sunrise. That hour and half between 6:00 and 7:30 seem to log the coldest temps of the night.

One would think that as the sun started to rise ,it would warm up things up right away,but there is usually a lagg there, with temps still dropping. It's not always the case,but seems to hold true a large percentage of the time.

Does anyone know what causes this,very curious?

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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67F in the greenhouse this morning.  About the same forecasted for that location tonight and tomorrow night etc..

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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(gsn @ Jan. 26 2007,16:45)

QUOTE
The NWS had you at 38F last night,they have you at 43F tonight.

Are you just seeing if we are paying attention? ???

Well......today didnt get very warm and the air is fairly dry.  So, I have a feeling that it might be just as cold tonight as last night.

Of course, NWS usually is smarter than me though  :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(gsn @ Jan. 26 2007,20:19)

QUOTE

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 26 2007,18:53)

QUOTE
Officially 39.38F at my house this morning at 7:28 AM, NWS had me forcast for 38F. Damn wind turned northeast early this morning then had the nerve to go calm just before sun up. Rapid cooling in my cold sink here. I

Bill,

Even if the wind hadn't  shifted, and then died off, your temps probably would still have dropped.

I  have noticed a phenomenon that the coldest temps of the night are usually right around (morning twilight) and  just after sunrise. That hour and half between 6:00 and 7:30 seem to log the coldest temps of the night.

One would think that as the sun started to rise ,it would warm up things up right away,but there is usually a lagg there, with temps still dropping. It's not always the case,but seems to hold true a large percentage of the time.

Does anyone know what causes this,very curious?

Scott

I have observed the same thing.  It can be a very chilly night & then the sun comes up and I think "great, it will warm right up."   WRONG :(

It takes the atmosphere a few more hours to recover unless it is windy.

I really sweated it during the recent California freeze as I saw my temps drop below 40F two nights and bottom out after sunrise.  Thankfully nothing below 37F but even that temp is the coldest in many years.  Wind is what spared metro Los Angeles sub-freezing temps but it came too close for comfort.

My reading of the model discussions continues to suggest that Florida will stay clear of arctic air well into Feb, but as we know, anything is possible this winter  :o

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Another oddity.....

Even if the wind is out of the east....the stations situated on the Gulf around here still read warmer than stations even just a bit inland.

I assume this is becuase the atmosphere is getting "mixed up" and as such some Gulf heat is still transferred inland even through wind direction would seem to dictate otherwise?

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 26 2007,18:53)

QUOTE
I shouldn't complain as a couple miles inland from me people probably saw a light FROST judging by what the FAWN readings were this morning.

Bill-

I can confirm the frost readings in inland locations.

On my drive to work this AM, out in Temple Terrace near I75 I saw dozens of frosted rooftops and even a few patches of frosty grass in low lying areas.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry,

Tonight's forecast looks about 5F warmer than last night.  The winds are to turn easterly overnight and stop the steady fall of temperatures.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 26 2007,18:53)

QUOTE
I think I am realizing that I may have planted way out of my zone last spring and summer.

Who hasnt?!!??

hehehehehe

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 26 2007,21:13)

QUOTE
Larry,

Tonight's forecast looks about 5F warmer than last night.  The winds are to turn easterly overnight and stop the steady fall of temperatures.

Ray

Ray-

I fear that 5F warmer than last night is no longer possible for my yard as its already 45.9F here!

The winds went dead calm at about 630PM and this always causes my temps to drop quickly (too far from the water).  I need some breeze to steal heat away from everywhere else :D

But, the good news is that I see dewpoints rising and temps are now steady.  So, we might even see a little bump up later tonight before it starts down again.  If the winds go dead east, then all the better.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(spockvr6 @ Jan. 26 2007,21:12)

QUOTE

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 26 2007,18:53)

QUOTE
I shouldn't complain as a couple miles inland from me people probably saw a light FROST judging by what the FAWN readings were this morning.

Bill-

I can confirm the frost readings in inland locations.

You guys said the F word.

Careful there might be Californians lurking on this thread,and they don't condon the use of the F word!

F doesn't exist out there just ask DypsisDean! Oh wait this is a Florida thread I can say FROST! :P

Just kidding Dean (inside joke)if you see this, enjoyed the debate! :laugh:

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Larry, I saw no frost as far inland as the middle of Sun City Center today on my way to work this morning, but I bet Wimauma and points further east (until the ridge) had a bit.

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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(gsn @ Jan. 26 2007,16:22)

QUOTE
FROST doesn't exist out there (SoCal) just ask DypsisDean! :P

Just kidding Dean (inside joke)if you see this, enjoyed the debate! :laugh:

Scott,

Just so others aren't confused. We have plenty of frost in SoCal on colder nights. But in most areas it is exclusively reserved for the ground/grass, cars, roofs, and the like. I have never seen it naturally occur on the leaves of my palms or other trees. And if I understand you correctly, this is what you mean when you say "frost."

I too had fun off line. I started a poll just to see how others use the word.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Not looking GOOD as of right now for Monday night/Tuesday morning according to the NWS!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

1219 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-

OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-

SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-

1219 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH

FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE

AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND

NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

SEDLOCK/KELLY

And even this far SOUTH!

FREEZE OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

529 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

GLADES-HENDRY-EASTERN COLLIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...LA BELLE...

BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...IMMOKALEE

529 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL BUILD

SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO MOVE

SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO

TUESDAY MORNING. JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS

TIME. COMPUTER MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND ARE NOW POINTING

AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF

GLADES...HENDRY...AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY

MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP DOES NOT FAVOR A WIDESPREAD

OR HARD FREEZE...BUT DOES LEND ITSELF TO THE POSSIBILITY OF

TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK...OR EVEN A DEGREE OR

TWO LOWER...ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THUS...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING COLD WEATHER SITUATION.

GREGORIA/BAXTER

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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NWS has me down to 35-36F for early monday morning. forcast to be at or below freezing in New Tampa, Brandon and Riverview as far south as the eastern portions of Sun City Center (in the Tampa area). This could be a cold one  :( .

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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The slow drop in forecasted temps has started.......

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 27 2007,15:16)

QUOTE
NWS has me down to 35-36F for early monday morning. forcast to be at or below freezing in New Tampa, Brandon and Riverview as far south as the eastern portions of Sun City Center (in the Tampa area). This could be a cold one  :( .

Oops, I think that forcast was for Tuesday morning.

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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Larry,

There was no slow descent this time.  It just dropped from 40 to 34 in one NWS shift change.  I don't expect it to slide any further from this point on.  They must have decided to skip all of that inching down crap this go round.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Every time I go to the NWS site, our forecast for Monday looks worse.  The last time I looked (last night), our neighborhood was supposed to go down to 41 on Monday night.

Now they're saying 39!

Nooooooooooooooooo!

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Same here Sunny....was 39F and now 37F.

Other forecasts range from 35-38F depending on source.  If thats all things end upbeing.....no real worries.  We really cant complain about those types of lows.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 27 2007,19:50)

QUOTE
 I don't expect it to slide any further from this point on.  

That would be good with me :P

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry,

The only problem is nothing is hardened off.  Even though it's almost February, this is the equivalent of an early December 34F.  Expect lots of foliar damage if the forecast holds up.  Everything was already in springtime mode and will be setback considerably.  I will now proceed to take some pills and wash down with Makers Mark.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Ray-

I will have to take some pics tomorrow and post them.

I cant believe it but I think that 41F two nights ago slightly damaged my green form Bismarckia!   I knew these things were tender relative to the silver form....but jeeze!  There are 2-3 leaves that have that last 6" or so of the leaves slightly darkened.  It sure looks like cold damage to me.

Yet a couple of potted Golden Malayans 15-20 ft away are unharmed.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Well you guys are lucky over there on the west coast so far.

Not so for us over here on the east coast!

MWS has us, Titusville  forecast to freeze 32F !

Interior central Florida, Orlando, Kissimmee also forecast to freeze 32F! :(

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 27 2007,22:42)

QUOTE
 Everything was already in springtime mode and will be setback considerably.  

I guess that bonus might be that, even if this is equivalent to an early December 34F temp, that we will have to wait less before things bounce back as Spring is all that closer.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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(gsn @ Jan. 27 2007,22:47)

QUOTE
Well you guys are lucky over there on the west coast so far.

Not so for us over here on the east coast!

MWS has us, Titusville  forecast to freeze 32F !

Interior central Florida, Orlando, Kissimmee also forecast to freeze 32F! :(

Been watching that Scott........

I believe this is so due to forecast wind directions (NW).

If that shifts the other way........things may get reversed.

I the winds stay NW and reasonably stiff, I probably wont even cover anything (except for maybe a couple of ultra tender items).

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Boy....if I didnt know something bad was coming...Id be tickled right now.

Looking at my weather station, I see stiff (gusting to 17 mph) winds from dead south and a dewpoint shooting up 10F in less than 3 hours.  This is good stuff! Except for what comes after it......

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Oh Crap! I just looked at our weather forcast for the next couple of nights. Sunday Night lows 20-25 degrees and Monday Night lows 18-23 degrees. Looks like a hard freeze. Will keep you all updated. This is the lowest temps forcasted since I have planted most of my palms. Wish me luck.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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(Alicehunter2000 @ Jan. 28 2007,00:37)

QUOTE
Oh Crap! I just looked at our weather forcast for the next couple of nights. Sunday Night lows 20-25 degrees and Monday Night lows 18-23 degrees. Looks like a hard freeze. Will keep you all updated. This is the lowest temps forcasted since I have planted most of my palms. Wish me luck.

David, I am afraid your area will get hammered.  What palms have you planted out?   Even the Nature Coast is being warned of a freeze - shhheeesh, the watches n' warnings extend all the way down to......

Collier??  That is BAD.

So I checked my local NWS forecast - it's now calling for a low of (argh!) 39F by Tuesday morning.  Yesterday, they had Tuesday morning at 41.  So the forecast is deteriorating.

Here's the current Weather Statement for Pinellas:

PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-

SARASOTA-DE SOTO-

502 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS

LATE TONIGHT...

...ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH RIP CURRENTS BY DAYBREAK AT THE GULF BEACHES...

...COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE

INLAND TUESDAY MORNING...

...DIFFICULT TO DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND

EARLY SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TAMPA BAY SARASOTA

BRADENTON AND LAKELAND AREAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

SYNOPSIS: A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY

INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE

NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER THIS EVENING...THEN RACE ACROSS NORTH

FLORIDA BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM EARLY SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

WIND: A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP

AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING...THEN SWEEP

ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUNCOAST AND INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND

FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR 50 MPH GUSTS TO

DEVELOP...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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