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The GFS Ensemble models have all the Arctic Oscillation plots huddled together at about a -3 around the 24th of January. From the time it hits those levels, there's about a 2 week lag before the potential cold snap occurs. That puts the days to watch at around February 6th. It may not happen but the "door" will be wide open.

Arctic Oscillation teleconnection

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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I have seen where the AO is turning to normal. They compared it to 2007 which had a very mild start then a cooler February. When I checked daily temp records at TPA for Feb., there was one cold event which resulted in a light freeze N and E of town but nothing severe in the Tampa Bay area (mid to upper 30's for several nights) before the month ended very warm. From what I read they compare our current patterns just like this. So, if the "open doors" are just cold events, not severe arctic events, the we should be okay. Interesting as they predict 78-80F afternoons from now through Tuesday!

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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  • 3 weeks later...

Strange people complainig about that litle bit of frost down there. Well you loose some palms but still plenty hardier ones to chose from. And many other exotic plants!

Last night -16 C here!


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