not another one !! Cyclone that is ... Errol

[aussiearoids]

Fingers crossed this will fade away ... just had 4 days of rains and the BRUCE flooded for a few days ...

QUEENSLAND'S State Disaster Management Group met late yesterday, worried about a tropical low which has the potential to turn into a cyclone and hit the coast between Townsville and Cairns on Saturday.

The low pressure system will be named Cyclone Errol if it intensifies to a category one system.

While it is not expected to bring the level of devastation which accompanied Cyclone Yasi last month, authorities are concerned about the amount of rainfall the low-pressure system will bring with it.

The low is off the south-east coast of Papua New Guinea.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts provided advice which suggested Cyclone Errol may be short-lived with a 24 to 36-hour lifespan before reverting into a tropical low.

[tropicbreeze]

Last look I took at the GFS model it wasn't showing the PNG low as developing into anything. It did however show a low developing in the Gulf and crossing over the peninsula into the Coral Sea (mid next week). The last frame of the run had it intensifying well north of Cairns. It's unlikely to be able to maintain any intensity if it goes further south as sea temperatures are low. A lot of rain out of it is a far bigger possibility. I'll be keeping a watch on it, especially as it's gone all quite for the time being around our way. There's nothing much to watch here.

[ariscott]

GFS has been all over the shop, Zig. Btw, did your place get hammered this afternoon? Is your wx online?

[tropicbreeze]

Ari, I think most of the models are all over the place at present. But I like the GFS graphics. The other day GFS had the PNG low merging with the Gulf Low and moving down the Coral Sea coast.

Now it's got that low moving into the Gulf and developing into a significant cyclone (Gulf waters are very warm). Major impact is around Mornington Is, with the system moving southwards from there. This is about Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

BOM has the PNG low drifting onto the coast and being absorbed into the monsoon trough near the bottom of the Cape.

GFS tended to push TC Carlos further east than the actual track. EC tended to have it further west than the actual track. But sometimes they can be close.

I missed that rain that was reported on NAC (77mm Noonamah South). But my weather station recorded a fall of 25mm in 20 mins Thursday, so possibly the same event. My weather station isn't online. Bit too costly to set that up.

[ariscott]

The models changed just about daily these days. I think they have trouble predicting us at the moment.

Anyway, if you join NAC, you can get it online through NAC. I am sure Paul will be happy to help.

Regards, Ari

[_Keith]

The models changed just about daily these days. I think they have trouble predicting us at the moment.

Anyway, if you join NAC, you can get it online through NAC. I am sure Paul will be happy to help.

Regards, Ari

We had so many a few years back, they ran out of letters on the alphabet and had to start again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[tropicbreeze]

Ari, I got onto NAC. Kept trying until eventually it turned up with a legible code.

Getting much mowing done? I started off with the whippersnipper, the ground's so saturated you couldn't run a wheelbarrow over it unless it was empty (and mine's a builders one with a wide tyre).

When this latest surge came through I just started on carrying the tree branches from the cyclone damage to the fire heap. Didn't matter getting soaked. No point waiting for the rain to stop, won't get anything done because the rain's not going to stop. And anyway, it's not too hot out working.

[ariscott]

No mowing!!!! it has been raining every afternoon!!! We need to spray the weeds too... arrgghh, the garden looks so messy!! BTW, do you need a hand with those branches? Scott might be able to help tomorrow... Today is Wiggles day...

[fan palm]

tel me about it ari! supposed to pick up a brand spanking new mower tomorrow! what for? not going to be able to mow for weeks the ways its going

[tropicbreeze]

Looks like Errol is going to make an appearance on Friday, off the NT coast. The low is currently bringing a lot of rain to east and central Arnhem Land. The models, though not all in complete agreement, are suggesting a move to the west and continuing intensification. Possibly north of the Kimberley coast qnd crossing around Broome. One other scenario is down into Joseph Bonaparte Gulf with a possible crossing near Kalumburu.It will be moving over very warm water, 29 - 31C. And being slow moving will give it a lot of time to ramp up.

"A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Tiwi Islands and coastal communities between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin. At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 70 kilometres north northwest of Croker Island and 255 kilometres northeast of Darwin and is slow moving."

[ariscott]

Probably just dump rain & bugger off to WA. Hopefully it won't be cyclone warning tomorrow... I need to clean out my office & do my final timesheet tomorrow. I will start a new job next month....

[tropicbreeze]

Errol finally came into being today off the north Kimberley coast. But it's expected to head up north west towards Indonesia. Guess the Bureau is expecting it to follow the retreating monsoon trough.

[Tyrone]

Would it make it to Indonesia or is that the doldrums where they just blow out and become a storm?

It definitely won't be coming down here.

Best regards

Tyrone

[tropicbreeze]

A couple of years back Kirrily got up to about Ambon, around 5 degrees off the equator. A fair while back one straddled the equator not far from Singapore. But they're weak systems, the Coriolis effect peters out in those areas. This system is small and wind shear will be on the increase. Additionally the ST ridges are pushing dry air up into it so that will kill it off. The track has it going just south west of Kupang.