Cyclone Yasi coming to Qld

[Tyrone]

Ex-Yasi is still being fed tropical air and moving along westwards just below the Tropic of Capricorn. It's expected to merge into a low pressure over the Pilbara (north west of its present position). Whether you could then still call the system "ex-Yasi" is debatable, but it will be carrying its residual moisture.

The merged system is expected to move off the coast and start to intensify. Despite Bianca having sucked a lot of the energy out of water, there's still a lot of warm ocean out there. Waters below the tropic are usually too cold to generate or re-generate cyclones. They only get down there if they've managed to develop some 'momentum' while still in the warmer areas. Bianca got down near Perth because of that. And a bit earlier Wilma almost got to New Zealand.

That band of cloud reaching down to NZ is a cold front, nothing to do with Yasi.

Had a look at the synoptic out to Thursday and although a low does move off the Pilbara coast that may draw some of the energy from what's left of Yasi, they are not predicting much from it. The subtropical ridge has become really strong over here since Yasi, with big high pressure systems coming in sending dry, horrible easterlies over us that are expected to cause some mild damage around the foothills today, and have been for two days already. So something like a cyclone may form, but it won't come south, as the highs won't let them. Too much shear. But, I could be wrong. It happens a lot.

SST's are still high enough for a cyclone to come south.

Best regards

Tyrone

I take that back. They expect that low to form off the coast of WA into a cyclone on Thursday. Big high beneath it though so it may continue west, but if the high slides east and it comes down behind it, then it could be all on again. We may get fires and a cyclone over here.

Best regards

Tyrone

[philinsydney]

We may get fires and a cyclone over here

Tyrone, put that angle grinder away at once!

Edited February 9, 2011 by wrigphi