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Can Florida Close


bubba
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Accuweather Dude Joe Bastardi predicted at some early time (?)that Florida should enjoy(?) December because Winter was over after that in Florida.In Southeast Florida, it is difficult to complain. Particularly, after last Jan.2-12, we have experienced an outstanding January. We have had a few cool days with highs in the 60'sF.but lows only in the mid 40'sF.Primarily, this has been highs in the mid 70's with lows around 60 F.to upper 50'sF. This is perfect weather for those of us, who sweat from Feb. to Nov.

That stated, in 1899 armeggedon hit Florida, Texas and the entire South on Feb.13-14.Will armeggedon hit again this year? Is Bastardi for real? Does anyone know the dynamics Bastardi employs for prediction as explained in common terms for those of us who want to understand and learn?

What you look for is what is looking

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I gave up on Bastardi a long time ago. He is pretty good but his long range forecasts are so east coast centric to the point where he rarely mentions the west coast at all. I think he just uses his own understanding of downstream weather systems to come up with his forecasts along with a pretty accurate comparison to previous years. I don't think he uses the common models very much unless it's to compare his forecasts with theirs.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and can boast of a long record of successes.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and can boast of a long record of successes.

LOL....good point.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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Epic, I think Bastardi does center primarily on the East and Europe. Apparently, he is considered somewhat of a rock star over the pond. No question he focuses on Florida but he does seem to have some long range accuracy. This is particularly true if his prediction about Winter ending in Dec. is true. At this time, we will take anything resembling "good news".

Palmerati, Did you make that up!

What you look for is what is looking

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Bastardi has certainly been more accurate than people like Stu Ostro and other meteorologists from the Weather Channel who can only be heard saying "how warm 2010 has been!" and predicted a mild winter...

Even if February resulted in a colder month, Bastardi at least got January right, which is more than it can be said about most of the above.

Where I am February is usually cool but without extremes. However, back in 1996 Central Florida got hit with the coldest temperature dip since 1989.

Edited by TropicalDude
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An overnight low of 63F rising to a high of 80.4F today, and its still 79.3F at 4:50PM. Give me some of that arctic oscillation, my palms are loving it! :lol:

Edited by sonoranfans

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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An overnight low of 63F rising to a high of 80.4F today, and its still 79.3F at 4:50PM. Give me some of that arctic oscillation, my palms are loving it! :lol:

You bum!

71.3F / 58.6F here today.

But, it was warm enough to inspire me to throw a few Ti plants into the ground and a couple of Dypsis madagascariensis.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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On the subject of weather prediction accuracy, you should find this article quite entertaining.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Hey Bubs...your guy got it wrong (again)...it's going to be in the 40's Sat night. I recall him saying two cold spells ago that winter in SoFlo was over.

The weight of lies will bring you down / And follow you to every town / Cause nothin happens here

That doesn't happen there / So when you run make sure you run / To something and not away from

Cause lies don't need an aero plane / To chase you anywhere

--Avett Bros

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Pedro, 50F; "Watch out where the Huskies go; Don't eat none of that yellow snow". Weak...very weak.

What you look for is what is looking

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Accuweather in general (not just Bastardi) is a hype machine. I like the broken clock comment LOL. Bastardi has been right but has also been wrong plenty of times. Even blind squirrels find nuts here and there.

If Accuweather propheses that winter is over in the east, folks like us stop reading his permanent "It's going to get cold again" blog.

Bubba, Accuweather's 15 day forecast here is almost always off the mark. It usually ends up being much more mild than what's predicited. This winter has not been warm by any means but 100% better than last January. Most of my losses this December were actually plants greatly weakened by last January and finished off this year's cool chill. If those same plants had not been exposed to last January's cold, they would have made it easily through this winter.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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When pundits predict football game outcomes(W/L) their cumulative accuracy is tracked. It would be interesting to see the data on meteoroligists, I think it would be a bit of an eye opener and it would at least rank them properly. A lot of people get performance tested on their jobs, and we get annual reviews. I think this is in order for our fearless forecasters, see if they can get within 3 degrees with a greater penalty for errors greater than say 5. I know their employers wouldnt want this as it would likely actually separate the "good ones", from the "good looking ones". Why is it that some professionals don't want to be evaluated for performance??

Edited by sonoranfans

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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Bastardi tries to use pattern recognition, teleconnections, and forecast analogs to make his predictions. He rarely makes true forecasts (with numbers) out in public, it's usually just a commentary of "predictions". His forecasts are limited to seasonal projections and sometimes he'll toss out actual numbers for a hurricane. He leans towards the Euro model and spends a fair amount of time bashing the GFS and its known biases. He can be entertaining and at times pick out a pattern before few others notice. At the same time, sometimes his enthusiasm for extreme weather events leads to him overhyping things.

Ray - the Accuweather.com weather forecast is just a computer-generated grid version run from the models, probably the GFS. That would easily explain why it's always colder in the long range, especially in winter. Any of those __.com forecasts are just computer numbers. The NWS is the only 7-day forecast with real thought put into them, unless you happen to have an extremely good local TV met you can trust. Not a "weatherman", but a degreed met (like Paul Dellegatto for my FL readers :-)

Edited by jasons
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  • 3 weeks later...

Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Now we're done.

As I assumed this was the case, I was out planting last weekend!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Yay! I actually planted 4 Chamaedoreas & a Rhapis Tuesday. Next couple nights will be in mid-40s but the only palms I pull inside are the lipsticks. But not for long I hope. This weekend I plan to do some trimming/cleanup. Bring it on!

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."

"Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

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Started planting last weekend, its over. The gulf has warmed up a bit and it will warm incoming fronts. All the rain has been a real fungus generator, the january total was 3x normal rainfall and its continuing on. Once the rain stops for a few days, we will be hitting high 70's and low 80's. Lows have been mostly 50's with a 43 throw in in when the last front came through.

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

I suppose that was possible.

I checked my stations data for March 2010 and did see 3 nights in a row around 40F (March 5,6,7 at 40, 40, 39F).

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Now we're done. Historical records show that severe freezes happen much less frequently after February 10th and are almost non-existent after the 20th. The coming thaw next week is the bridge to spring we've been anticipating. Since the middle of January, winter here has been relatively tame and normal. For those interested, the last significant cold snap in March for central and south Florida was in 1980.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?.... :(

I suppose that was possible.

I checked my stations data for March 2010 and did see 3 nights in a row around 40F (March 5,6,7 at 40, 40, 39F).

Same here march 5-7 40-39. But those kind of temps wont cause a damaging frost even if it does frost it will melt immediately.

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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No 30's in my garden last March.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?....

No you didn't Bill and if you did, Jeff will deny it.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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No 30's in my garden last March.

Last year I saw frost at the Searle sale in March?....

No you didn't Bill and if you did, Jeff will deny it.

Hey Ray,

I heard Bill had his fill of spirits during his visit to Jeffs garden :lol: , I think he saw lots of things....

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

I wait until mid March to plant tender species. in 1980 it was about March 2/3 that Orlando hit 25F !

Frost last March ??? I looked up our weather database and the coldest here was 40F on 3/6/2010 and 3/7

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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I'm not planting until the end of Feb and see a nice 10 day forecast for March. I had significant frost last March.

I wait until mid March to plant tender species. in 1980 it was about March 2/3 that Orlando hit 25F !

Frost last March ??? I looked up our weather database and the coldest here was 40F on 3/6/2010 and 3/7

I think its over, finally. Our average last frost date is the 25th. Looking out on the 10 day forecast, it is smooth sailing. Of course that number is average, but I just got a feeling it it done.

Now, let's give it a couple of months, and then start complaining about the heat, lol.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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stick a fork in it - winter's done.

Hi all - it's so beautiful out, wish I could go out and catch up on the gardening chores (too sick), but maybe next weekend.

Recap: some of our crotons in the ground got a beating again this year. I don't think there were any fatal losses but a few look really bad.

Dypsis lutescens (my only remaining one) made it through this winter with only a few toasted fronds. Glaucas, roebs, and morrissiis are fine, no problems. As are purpureas, albofarinosas, teddy-bear etc. I did have totally fried leaves on my ice-cream banana (in a container with northern exposure), but it's leafing out fine. The cordies are still recovering from severe lubber damage last summer.

I think our bottle palm survived unprotected this winter, too early to tell, but it doesn't look too bad.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Looking at the forecast, I am so tempted to take my large Cyrtostachys renda out of the greenhouse for the year (it is looking spectacular, and I want to be able to actually see it). I usually wait until mid-late March but maybe I can just put a heat lamp on it if we have a few nights in the low 40s in March?

-Michael

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I closed the freeze book on February 20th and started fertilizing. Before the March 1980 freeze, you've got to go back another 40 years for a March event so that's definitely an anomaly with which I'm willing to take chances.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Yes, on the 3rd/4th of March we got a last cold snap. There was the lightest hint of frost here in my open back at 34.7f (according to my records) but the afternoon hit 64f, then 37f the following night and 70f the following day. Very dry air. Therefore, those that saw frost it was a radiational frost. However, there was NO damage that I recall because it only briefly dipped both nights. This stretch of weather has been unreal! It has been perfect here. 70's with endless sunshine since.....a week ago at least, and a wake up of 66f this morning under heavy fog which burnt off (at school) by 10am. Nice breezes. The plants are JUMPING! All of them, and new palm fronds galore. :lol:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I got a pretty good head start, started planting jan 28th and continuing. 66F low this morning 83F today just like the last 3-4 days, hits low 80's every day, overnight lows in the low to mid 60's. The gulf water and tampa bay are heating up, which at 3-4 miles away should protect against a cold northwest intrusion. Fronds are popping open, angel trumpets are blooming, everything is happy.... :D But lessons have been learned: canopy and wind breaks must be attended to. I fertilized the lived oaks, spiked them, planted a couple livistona decora for protection, and bought some weeping yaupon holly to break some wind.

Edited by sonoranfans

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

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