Jump to content

January 2010 - Possible Arctic Outbreak


jasons
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yes, thank goodness this week doesn't look as bad as earlier feared. This is still cold enough for me though - I will probably have to wrap my most tender plants. Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner (local met):

Impressive weekend storm system brought snow to N and NE TX and severe weather to S TX and the coastal bend along with a storm surge along the upper TX coast. A detailed storm report will be ready this afternoon.

Strong surface low is now over the NE Gulf of Mexico with low cloud deck left over much of TX. Clouds will erode from the SW to the NE today with our southwest counties likely seeing the most sun and our northeast counties likely remaining cloudy all day. Temperatures will respond to the clearing with near 60 likely around Matagorda Bay to highs in the low 40’s around Lake Livingston and 40’s to low 50’s elsewhere.

Weather this week will be cold and mainly cloudy. Hard freeze appears possible for some areas Wednesday morning.

Tonight:

Strong arctic cold front currently entering the TX panhandle will rapidly advance southward and off the coast between 900pm and 300am. Strong cold air advection on gusty NW winds will drive temperatures below freezing for Tuesday morning along and N of US 59. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Tuesday:

Strong cold air advection will be in progress. Skies will gradually clear from NW to SE across the entire region as very low dewpoints (teens and 20’s) overspreads the region. Even with sunny skies, strong cold air advection will keep highs from reaching 50 and most locations will stay in the mid 40’s with wind chills near freezing.

Tuesday Night:

Hard Freeze Expected northern ½ of the region.

Winds will remain up which will save the area from a really bad freeze, but with clear skies it will get very cold. North of HWY 105 lows will fall into the lower 20’s with temperatures below freezing for 10-14 hours. Between US 59 and HWY 105 lows will be in the mid to upper 20’s with temperatures below freezing for 8-10 hours. South of US 59 temperatures will fall into the lower 30’s with freezing conditions for 3-5 hours.

Residents along and N of US 59 should take the needed actions to protect sensitive vegetation and any exposed outside pipes.

Wednesday:

Short wave in the NW flow aloft will induce isentropic lift over the arctic cold dome. Clouds will rapidly increase from SW to NE across the area early on Wednesday with the entire area cloudy by Wednesday afternoon. Developing clouds and continuing cold air advection will keep highs in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s on Wednesday.

Wednesday Night:

Short wave moves across the region. Fairly decent lift is noted during this period and profiles aloft and surface temperatures will be at or below freezing. Main question is the amount of moisture that will be available and if any precipitation would reach the ground. Appears at this time that the near surface layer will be too dry to support precipitation to reach the surface. May see a few flurries N of I-10 from the mid level deck.

Thursday:

Short wave will move eastward, but cold conditions will remain with highs only in the 40’s under mostly cloudy skies.

Friday-Saturday:

Another strong short wave approaches from the west during his period and finally helps to erode the arctic dome over the area. Will follow the slower and colder erosion of this air mass as coastal troughing develops Friday helping to draw NE winds and cold air. Clouds will thicken on Friday with chances for rain developing Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will finally reach toward 60 by Saturday with scattered showers. It should be noted the ECMWF and CMC both show a fairly potent storm system on their latest runs with another bout of widespread rainfall and strong winds possible.

Sunday-Monday:

Warm front crosses the region early Sunday ushering in lower 70’s for highs which will feel very nice after this week. Should also see some sun Sunday prior to the arrival on the next cold air intrusion expected late Sunday night. Air mass behind this front looks fairly cold again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are Mr. Lindler's forecasts publicly available? They contain more detailed information that is very valuable and lacking in most of the places I usually check.

Living south of I-10 and southeast of US-59 usually buys me a few degrees. Although, not nearly as much as the heat island inside loop 610 or the areas near the bay or gulf.

I should also point out that I had 'a moment' (some may say epiphany, moment of clarity, whatever ... I just hope nobody was watching or listening because it wasn't pretty) while I was up on a ladder last year wrapping my 12 foot tall foxtails in the freezing, windy, rainy/snowy conditions. Let's just say I no longer wrap/cover anything and have a new found appreciation for all those hardy palms. I have a small greenhouse that I use to propogate cuttings/seeds/etc from the more tender, perennial type stuff so that it can be replanted in the spring. I also have a little 13 month old daughter, so my perspective on these winter weather events has changed dramatically from just a year or so ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey war-eagle - by the way if that is a reference to AU, then I'll shout back WAR EAGLE!! (most of my family went to Auburn).

Jeff's forecasts are not publicly available, but I post them regularly on storm2k.org. We have a SE Texas thread in the winter weather forum.

Congrats on your daughter. I have a 4-yr old son and my youngest son is 14 months old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoped I'd get overlooked by the latest arctic front but I guess not. Started out that my lows Wed & Thur would fall to low or mid-40s. Now local weather says upper 30s. Won't send the planet out of orbit but I hate it when lows fall below 40. Cyrtostachys definitely coming indoors mid-week. How much longer till spring?

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Jason, I'll have to check out that site. Thank you and congrats on your 4 year old and 14 month old as well! Children are far more of a blessing than I could have ever imagined.

WAR EAGLE!! I, too, come from a family of AU grads; myself, my wife, mom, dad, sister, aunts, uncles, cousins, etc. Needless to say, today has been a LONG day at work!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Long advertised arctic cold front has pushed through the area overnight ushering in a very cold air mass.

Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight along and N of I-10.

Arctic boundary has pushed deep into the Gulf of Mexico this morning with strong cold air advection in place across the region. Temperatures have fallen into the mid/upper 30’s at all sites with wind chill values in the low 30’s and upper 20’s. Real core of the arctic dome is just now reaching the TX panhandle where Pampa, TX is currently 1 and Lubbock, TX 9. Upstream temperatures over NC TX are in the mid 20’s to upper teens and this very dry and cold air mass will continue to advect southward today on strong NW winds. Low level stratus are starting to erode over NC TX from the NW as very dry low level air mass moves southward with dewpoints into the 1’s. Should see a slow but gradual clearing of the skies from NW to SE today with clear skies over all areas by late afternoon. Highs will struggle to reach to low to mid 40’s today.

Clear skies will allow for a very cold night tonight even with winds staying in the 5-10mph range. Temperatures will fall below freezing quickly this evening with lows at or below 25 degrees N of I-10 Wednesday morning. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for these areas for 8-12 hours of temperatures at or below freezing. Along and north of US 59 lows will range from 25-28 with temperatures below freezing for 5-9 hours. South of US 59 temperatures will range from 28-31 with temperatures below freezing for 4-6 hours.

Short wave aloft will move toward TX Wednesday with a mid level cloud deck along the Rio Grande plains tonight rapidly advecting NE early Wednesday. Skies will gradually become cloudy from the SW during the day limiting heating and keeping highs in the 40’s. Cloud deck in place Wednesday night should keep temperatures 2-4 degrees warmer than tonight…still a freeze for many locations. Very dry sub cloud layer should prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.

Friday-Weekend:

Coastal trough develops along the middle TX coast locking in NE flow with SW flow overrunning the shallow cold dome. Cold dome will be slow to erode with NE winds keeping the cold air entrenched and clouds/light rain helping to prevent modification. Will likely see more clouds/drizzle than rain during this period until late Saturday/Sunday when the trough becomes a warm front and begins to lift northward finally eroding the cold dome and allowing highs back into the 60’s by Sunday and Monday. Next front is due in Monday of next week.

Forecast Lows for Wednesday Morning:

Houston, Madison, Trinity, Brazos, Grimes, Walker, Polk Counties: 20-23

Washington, Waller, Montgomery, Austin, Colorado, San Jacinto, Liberty: 22-25

Harris outside the Beltway: 24-26

Harris inside the Beltway: 26-29

Harris inside 610 Loop: 28-32

Fort Bend, Wharton, Victoria, N Jackson: 24-27

Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun: 28-32

Freeze Precautions:

Forecasted temperatures tonight along with the duration below freezing will impact sensitive tropical vegetation and exposed outside pipes. Plants and pipes should be covered to protect against the cold. Last January the majority of the issues with pipes were on the back flow preventer for yard sprinkler systems and these should be covered and protected tonight. Winds will remain in the 5-10mph range overnight so coverings should be tightly secured. With winds staying up (advective freeze), the covering of plants to produce the “greenhouse effect” will only be marginally effective when compared to a calm night (radiative freeze) where the warmth from the ground becomes trapped under the covering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest NWS forecast says 23F for me tonight. If that verifies, it will be the 2nd coldest night for me since moving here in 2005. It may not be "Armageddon", but it's certainly cold enough for me! Especially for my Majesty Palms, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest NWS forecast says 23F for me tonight. If that verifies, it will be the 2nd coldest night for me since moving here in 2005. It may not be "Armageddon", but it's certainly cold enough for me! Especially for my Majesty Palms, etc.

Just before reading this, I checked our forecast as well. Last time I looked it was gonna be like 29. Now, the next 3 nights show 27,23,27. That's (explicative) cold.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a hard freeze warning for tonight and I'm about to head outside to wrap everything up. I'm still keeping a close watch on all that cold air building-up in Alaska and Canada over the next week. The models continue to bring it down in the long range at varying degrees of intensity. Happens most winters but this winter concerns me with the pattern allowing arctic plunges.

Either it's going to eventually happen or it's going to run out of time. Only time will tell, but I would keep a close watch on this still.

Edited by jasons
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The same cold high pressure system is over me.

We were 11 oF (-11 oC) this morning, with a high this afternoon of about 23 oF.

Tonight and tomorrow night the lows will be about 5 oF (-15 oC).

Wish I lived in Texas....

Terdal Farm, Tulsa OK, USA http://www.terdalfarm.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.

Wish I lived in Texas....

If its any consolation Erik, when these cold front come down we all wish we lived somewhere else!

Those in OK, wish they lived in TX, those in TX wish they lived in FL, those in FL wished they lived in HI, and on and on until one gets to the equator and nothing much changes :mrlooney:

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The forecast by the NWS for my place in SE Houston predicts 28F. If the winds goes calm it could be worse. Some clouds are trying to move in from the SW and are about 100 miles away. The dew points are bit higher to the SW and the drier air here could evaporate the clouds as they try to move in overnight. There is also a bit of a chance that winds will get enough of an easterly component during the night to get some air from Galveston Bay into SE Houston. Regardless of how it plays out, I do not expect any frost due to the dry air.

Garden plants at risk are:

Elephant Ears

Angel Trumpet

Delicious Monster and Pothos.

Bird of paradise

Cham. Elegans

Cham. Cat palms

Majesty Palms

King palms

Pygmy Date may get some burn at 28

Washington, Med Fan, Queen, Rhapis, Arenga engleri, Cham. radicalis Grapefruit tree , cycads et cetera should be fine.

Ed in Houston

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And ones at the equator people start to complain thats its always hot and humid and that they can not grow that certain palm/plant because its to hot...

Alexander

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A new low for the season in SE Houston this morning with a low of about 30, two degrees warmer than predicted by the NWS. Temps seem a bit more uniform across the area than previous cold spells this season. Looks to be a light freeze throughout the city, colder north and west. Along the upper Texas coast temps were in the mid 30s and the RGV stayed in the 40s. Tonight the forecast by NWS is cloudy(!) and 28. High pressure continues to build into the area. I hope this is the coldest of the season.

Ed in SE Houston

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OMG - my wife just called

She said Channel 2 news is shooting live from our front porch and back yard on the 4/5/6 news about the proper way to protect your plants and pipes from freezing weather!! I guess my freeze protection measures have earned quite the reputation!!!!!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OMG - my wife just called

She said Channel 2 news is shooting live from our front porch and back yard on the 4/5/6 news about the proper way to protect your plants and pipes from freezing weather!! I guess my freeze protection measures have earned quite the reputation!!!!!!!!!

Congratulations! If local newsies had stopped by my place in Dec. it would be to write about "the crazy woman who dresses palm trees." Tonight I dressed only about a dozen but moved many more indoors.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very mild for the time of the year but very wet here. Arround 7C as warm as Orlando! All the ice and snow is long gone now fortunately!

Alexander

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...