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Arctic Oscillation


gsytch

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I was just reading from the NWS how the AO has entrenched itself once again, up north, near Greenland. It is pulling down cold, cold air and overriding the La Nina effects. However, this year is different because La Nina is keeping the air dry, so the rains are fewer and far between. It states that this next freeze event will once again spare the coast (mostly) because of the flow out of the N and NW. After a brief respite, more cold air is on the way toward Christmas as it cycles. Now - let us all gather and move that damn thing outta there! Winter has not even arrived yet and once again, I am sick of it! I spent the entire week with little heat in my classroom. I taught with temps between 55-60F, gloves, hoodie, etc because our school's system could not keep up, even in my portable. Next week should be loads of fun! It appears Tues morning and even Wed morning are going to be bad as the winds calm down. Solar flares are raging, too...just sayin........... :lol:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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For me, any weather other than that of this past summer is just fine and is a welcome relief. I'm starting to think I need to move up north and get a really large greenhouse :blink: That said, it appears this next cold event won't be much worse than the one this past week. The NWS is saying 30F for Monday night.

-Michael

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I was just reading from the NWS how the AO has entrenched itself once again, up north, near Greenland. It is pulling down cold, cold air and overriding the La Nina effects. However, this year is different because La Nina is keeping the air dry, so the rains are fewer and far between. It states that this next freeze event will once again spare the coast (mostly) because of the flow out of the N and NW. After a brief respite, more cold air is on the way toward Christmas as it cycles. Now - let us all gather and move that damn thing outta there! Winter has not even arrived yet and once again, I am sick of it! I spent the entire week with little heat in my classroom. I taught with temps between 55-60F, gloves, hoodie, etc because our school's system could not keep up, even in my portable. Next week should be loads of fun! It appears Tues morning and even Wed morning are going to be bad as the winds calm down. Solar flares are raging, too...just sayin........... :lol:

I have also read that the AO is still active, as it was last winter. Part of the reason California did not receive as much rainfall, as is typical of an El Nino, last winter had to due with the Arctic Oscillation's influence. Now that it is the opposite ENSO, we should be drier than normal which is why the state has kept the water restrictions in place.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Lets all do our part to move this thing somewhere else. Lets turn on all our lights,drive our S.U.V.s eat alot of meat or :D whatever else we can do to get this global warming thing back on track:D

Palms not just a tree also a state of mind

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Yes on the move...on the way out. The latest NAO discussion expects a more zonal flow to setup as the negative pattern eases.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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If the zonal flow takes shape, weather could return to "normal"....right now, it is 43F with a wind gusting to 30mph under clear skies. BUt, that wind is NW off the water keeping me warmer. The NW flows in these cold snaps have saved my yard! Whatever is different than last year is just keeping my area afloat...

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Was checking out the Fla. situation at the NWS and came across this on the Tampa page.

The AO has since recovered back to around neutral, but as is generally the case during the late fall and winter months there is about a 10 to 14 day lag before the effects of the AO are felt here in Florida. Therefore, when the AO goes highly negative we tend to see below normal temperatures within about two weeks or so and when it goes highly positive we see above normal temperatures. So based on this theory we should see closer to normal temperatures return during the middle of December, but if the forecast models are correct (red lines in Figure 1 above) the AO is expected to go highly negative again in the next week or so which would bring more cold weather around and the week after Christmas.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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Gsytch, Epicure3

Interesting info about the interactions between the AO and ENSO. Did that come from the NWS? I would be interested in seeing what the authors are doing to describe and model this cyclicity. Do you have a reference?

David

Gig 'Em Ags!

 

David '88

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Yes, it comes from both the NWS and CPC. After this next negative phase, which is suppose to be short-lived, the AO is to break down and move, I believe west big time, sending a SW jet stream over the continental US ending the persistent cold. The outlook for January is very warm across the eastern 2/3 of the nation (I have fingers crossed)with snow melt being a problem. The SE US is to expect 3-5 degrees above norm, perhaps warmer, if the move is significant. References are easily search through AO. I know we are spoiled in FL with our usually mild winters, but the last 3 years have not been anywhere near mild. The depth of the cold has been mind boggling. I mean, I have already recorded, here in Tampa Bay, 4 days where we never hit 50F and about 8 days where it never hit 55F. Average high now is 73F.

Yesterday was cloudy, overcast with spritz, never over 53F and it is 37F at wake up - again! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Greg :angry:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Yes, it comes from both the NWS and CPC. After this next negative phase, which is suppose to be short-lived, the AO is to break down and move, I believe west big time, sending a SW jet stream over the continental US ending the persistent cold. The outlook for January is very warm across the eastern 2/3 of the nation (I have fingers crossed)with snow melt being a problem. The SE US is to expect 3-5 degrees above norm, perhaps warmer, if the move is significant. References are easily search through AO. I know we are spoiled in FL with our usually mild winters, but the last 3 years have not been anywhere near mild. The depth of the cold has been mind boggling. I mean, I have already recorded, here in Tampa Bay, 4 days where we never hit 50F and about 8 days where it never hit 55F. Average high now is 73F.

Yesterday was cloudy, overcast with spritz, never over 53F and it is 37F at wake up - again! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Greg :angry:

Agree that the cold in the Southeast U.S. this month has been "mind boggling"; your readings would be even cold for California at a much further north latitude. I am concerned that the westward movement of the AO could mean some very cold air for the West Coast later this winter. We did experience a week of chilly temperatures around Thanksgiving followed by a strong oceanic flow of mild moist air this month. I can not remember the Arctic Oscillation playing such a significant role across North America in past decades! :blink:

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Well the cold weather might very well be a result of that very global warming! If you read that HOT ARTIC_COLD CONTINENTS story then it seem to be a serious problem! Due to melting seaice a warmer pole with the result a weaker jetstream and more cold air reaching farther south then normal!

Maybe its payback time now! Or maybe not, how knows...

Alexander

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But if this will led to colder winters/more coldsnaps then you can say a Dieu to a lot of lovely palms and other exotics.

Well in the UK, Ireland and overehere its allready a disaster for lots of exotic plant gardeners!

Alexander

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But if this will led to colder winters/more coldsnaps then you can say a Dieu to a lot of lovely palms and other exotics.

Well in the UK, Ireland and overehere its allready a disaster for lots of exotic plant gardeners!

Alexander

Last year's 15 year record lows polished off most of the non-cold hardy stuff in my garden. Nothing left out there to worry about. And frankly, although I was devastated at the time, I am pretty happy about it now. When the temps dip I have nothing to worry about. I just stay nice and toasty in the house.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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But if this will led to colder winters/more coldsnaps then you can say a Dieu to a lot of lovely palms and other exotics.

Well in the UK, Ireland and overehere its allready a disaster for lots of exotic plant gardeners!

Alexander

Last year's 15 year record lows polished off most of the non-cold hardy stuff in my garden. Nothing left out there to worry about. And frankly, although I was devastated at the time, I am pretty happy about it now. When the temps dip I have nothing to worry about. I just stay nice and toasty in the house.

I'm getting old and crabby. :mrlooney: After twenty years of worrying about the zone 10a palms in my zone 9b yard, I'm now planting 9b and hardier palms under all my 10a palms. Once the hardy palms get big enough, all the 10a palms will be removed (if nature doesn't remove them earlier). It takes the tropical palms way too long to recover. I've planted quite a few chinese fan palms in the yard this fall and I'll be hunting down Livistona's this spring. Last spring I planted quite a few Butia's that have done real well, look beautiful, and will never be damaged by our freezes. I also planted a few Chamaerops humilis and they are also doing very well. Thankfully, Bismark Palms have no problems with the freezes we have so I added a second one of those in place a huge traveler palm clump that was always damaged by temperatures in the 30's. I wish I lived in zone 10a, and most years we do have 10a winters, but without fail, every 5-7 years we have a 9b winter like last year. So far this year we have not gone below freezing (got to 33.5F on the coldest morning so far, nothing is showing any damage so far). I admire the palm nuts that live inland where it freezes almost every year for their stamina! I'm trying to get rid of as much unecessary stress as I can in my life.

Edited by JimStPete
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NAO going positive in January!! Even the winter doom and gloomer forecasters are saying winter's worst could be behind us after this weekend.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Ray, Was it not you somewhere who pointed out that Accuweather/Joe Bastardi predicted Winter ending in December? If so,this guy must know that of which he speaks. Thank you for the great links.

That stated, the Winter of 2010 (remember Jan.2-12 also) must go down as one of the coldest ever. Maybe 2011 will be better.

What you look for is what is looking

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Up here Bubba, December will be one of if not the coldest on record. January was the second coldest on record and Feb was in the top 10 with records dating back to 1890. All of that said, yes 2010 has to be thee coldest year in Florida's recorded history.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Up here Bubba, December will be one of if not the coldest on record. January was the second coldest on record and Feb was in the top 10 with records dating back to 1890. All of that said, yes 2010 has to be thee coldest year in Florida's recorded history.

Ray-

This has to be the coldest December on record, and probably even the coldest month on record.

I just check my weather station stats and the AVERAGE TEMPERATURE for December 2010 so far is a tad over 51F! I almost dont believe it.

There are long term records for Tarpon Springs dating back into the 1800's, and Im going to check to see if theres ever been a colder month on record.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Just checked long term records and the previous coldest December on record (dating back to 1892) was in 1903 with an average temperature of 53.3F

The coldest month ever on record is January 1981 at 49.9F. Weeve still got a few days left in December, so maybe we can challenge the all time record too :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Back on Dec 20 I noted the change to positive AO, and after a brief cold snap (due Sun) we SHOULD start to switch to warmer weather. I am tired of the cold, and Dec isn't even over. That said, I am planting hardier stuff. I am trying to be creative, though, with new Azalea varieties, different Butias and Livistonia, a lot of Phoenix handle our cold well. The Caryota are now showing damage, light, from last week and I am seeing a few Broms with a hint of cold damage, but they handled it well, too. It seems anywhere there is some kind of cover plants did MUCH better. So, open areas will only have hardy stuff! Let's pull for the AO Positive and but quick! G~ :drool:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Up here Bubba, December will be one of if not the coldest on record. January was the second coldest on record and Feb was in the top 10 with records dating back to 1890. All of that said, yes 2010 has to be thee coldest year in Florida's recorded history.

Ray-

This has to be the coldest December on record, and probably even the coldest month on record.

I just check my weather station stats and the AVERAGE TEMPERATURE for December 2010 so far is a tad over 51F! I almost dont believe it.

There are long term records for Tarpon Springs dating back into the 1800's, and Im going to check to see if theres ever been a colder month on record.

That's low, low, low for FL. To put that 51F in perspective, the average temperature for Northern Virginia (zone 7A) in January is 43F - an 8 degree difference for two areas of the US that are 1,000 miles apart.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Let us all keep hoping this thing moves and dies down real quick! Any more of this cold air, and Florida landscapes will look burnt and barren. As a caveat, Nuuk, Greenland (capital) set a record high of 41F yesterday, while it snowed in Troy, Alabama not far from the Florida state line. Macon, GA recorded its first ever Christmas snow. I just want it all over with! Greg :drool:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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The temps in Houston have been about normal thus far this season. Up to December 25th, the average for December at Houston Hobby airport has been 66.7 high and 56.7 for a low for an average of 56.7. The 30 year average for( 1971-2000) is 56.1. Extreame highs for this December have been 82 on the 21st and 49 on the 25th. Extreame lows have been 32 on the 9th and 68 on the 21st.

Ed in Houston

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