December Thread

[gsn]

Larry,

It actually got warmer here in Titusville, after the sun set with one exception,6:00 AM 55F degrees!!

I would have been alright if you hadn't mentioned that Dr. Thomas  Giella guy!!!  Could have kept my head buried deep in the sand!

He was predicting GLOOM and DOOM for us! ???

Past 24 Hours from Noon Dec. 8

(Reports from nasa shuttle fclty, fl)

Time Temp (° F) RealFeel (° F) Rel. Hum. Wind Dir. Wind Speed Press. (in) Precip. (in) Vis. (Miles) Weather

Noon -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Noon 59 55 67 NNW 16 30.31 0.00 10 m/cloudy

1pm 59 55 62 NNW 16 30.31 0.00 10 overcast

2pm 59 54 67 NNW 17 30.31 0.00 10 overcast

3pm 57 50 67 NNW 18 30.32 0.00 10 m/cloudy

4pm 57 50 67 NNW 17 30.33 0.00 10 m/cloudy

5pm 55 49 71 NNW 12 30.34 0.00 10 m/cloudy

6pm 57 52 62 N 11 30.35 0.00 10 n/a

7pm 57 52 67 NNW 11 30.35 0.00 10 p/cloudy

8pm 57 50 71 NNW 16 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

9pm 59 55 54 NNE 11 30.36 0.00 10 m/cloudy

10pm 59 56 58 NNE 9 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

11pm 57 52 58 NNE 11 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

Mid 61 58 54 NNE 10 30.35 0.00 10 m/cloudy

1am  59 55 58 NNE 11 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

2am  57 55 58 NE 7 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

3am  61 57 58 NNE 11 30.36 0.00 10 p/cloudy

4am  59 55 58 NNE 10 30.35 0.00 10 p/cloudy

5am  59 56 58 NNE 9 30.37 0.00 10 p/cloudy

6am  55 53 62 NE 6 30.38 0.00 10 p/sunny

7am  59 59 62 ENE 5 30.39 0.00 10 p/sunny

8am  64 65 48 NE 7 30.41 0.00 10 p/sunny

9am  66 67 48 NE 9 30.43 0.00 10 m/cloudy

10am  64 63 48 NE 16 30.42 0.00 10 m/cloudy

Past 24 Hour Totals

High Temperature:  66°F (at 9am )

Low Temperature:  55°F (at 5pm)

[NBTX11]

My 10 Day forecast.  In a word, NICE!.  No cold fronts expected, as of now.

Today

Dec 11  Partly Cloudy 72°/52°

Tue

Dec 12  Sunny 75°/44°

Wed

Dec 13  Sunny 73°/47°  

Thu

Dec 14  Mostly Sunny 73°/50°

Fri

Dec 15  Partly Cloudy 76°/57°

Sat

Dec 16  Partly Cloudy 77°/57°

Sun

Dec 17  Few Showers 77°/60°  

Mon

Dec 18  Showers 78°/57°  

Tue

Dec 19  Partly Cloudy 73°/51°

Wed

Dec 20  Showers 69°/44°

[Tyrone]

We had a min of 21C today and a max of 37C. Been watering like mad. Dead still now at 11:30pm and around 23C.

Tyrone

[Neofolis]

Another very mild night by UK standards.  It's currently 12°C/54°F, that's 10°C/18°F above average.

[spockvr6]

Jim-

Not too much to complain about in the 10 day forecast down here either....heres hoping for a warm Christmas!

Dec 13  Scattered T-Storms

81°/62° 30%  

 81°F

Thu

Dec 14  Isolated T-Storms

80°/64° 30%  

 80°F

Fri

Dec 15  T-Showers

77°/60° 50%  

 77°F

Sat

Dec 16  Partly Cloudy

77°/58° 20%  

 77°F

Sun

Dec 17  Mostly Sunny

79°/59° 20%  

 79°F

Mon

Dec 18  Partly Cloudy

79°/57° 10%  

 79°F

Tue

Dec 19  Partly Cloudy

76°/57° 10%  

 76°F

Wed

Dec 20  Partly Cloudy

76°/58° 20%  

 76°F

Thu

Dec 21  Showers

75°/56° 40%  

 75°F

Fri

Dec 22  Scattered Showers

76°/56° 30%  

 76°F

[SubTropicRay]

The big question in an El Nino is what January will bring.  Contrary to popular belief, weak El Nino's enhance the chance for a central Florida freeze.  What goes down is the chance for a devastating, citrus belt altering freeze.  Here's to a warm, shorts bearing Christmas.

[spockvr6]

(Ray, Tampa @ Dec. 13 2006,07:22)

QUOTE

What goes down is the chance for a devastating, citrus belt altering freeze.  

Thats what Id be worried about.....just some minor cold will give only our palms some "character"!

[galveston1602]

Nothing to worry about!

All of my palms have character!  Heck they've already gotten character this winter as we made it down to 35 one morning....

I am really liking the way the 10 day fcst is trending...  

Highs in the middle 70's and lows in the middle 60's

Heck, if I didnt know better id say fla's sunshine got lost on its way to larrys place...

We tied a record yesterday at 78 degrees!

[spockvr6]

(galveston1602 @ Dec. 13 2006,12:08)

QUOTE

I am really liking the way the 10 day fcst is trending...  

Highs in the middle 70's and lows in the middle 60's

Heck, if I didnt know better id say fla's sunshine got lost on its way to larrys place...

We tied a record yesterday at 78 degrees!

Heck yes!

I watch the TX forecasts closely (to see what might come here) and I see that for the next week youll be skirting with record highs!

I guess this is Ma Nature's humble way of saying "Im sorry" for the other week.

No record highs forecast here as of yet, but just good solid weather with no nasty blips downward in the immediate future.

[ruskinPalms]

Yep, the weather looks great around here. I actually woke up to a steady rain this morning with a few light showers continuing around the area. And the best part is that it is quite warm and humid with no major cold in the foreseable future! I know it will be getting cold again within a week or two, but I am happy with the weather for the time being. All my palms are pushing and opening spears right now, even the Bizzies and Cocos which I thought had gone to sleep for the winter.

[NBTX11]

Supposed to be around 80 here, to the low 80s in a couple days.  Not quite record highs, the records highs for San Antonio are in the 85-90F range in Dec.  Interior south TX has higher records than the coast, naturally.  Warm and toasty around here.

Thu

Dec 14  Sunny 77°/53° 10 %

Fri

Dec 15  Mostly Sunny 80°/57° 10 %

Sat

Dec 16  Partly Cloudy 81°/62° 10 %

Sun

Dec 17  Partly Cloudy 82°/64° 20 %

Mon

Dec 18  Scattered T-Storms 75°/58° 40 %

[happ]

(Ray @ Tampa,Dec. 13 2006,07:22)

QUOTE

The big question in an El Nino is what January will bring.  Contrary to popular belief, weak El Nino's enhance the chance for a central Florida freeze.  What goes down is the chance for a devastating, citrus belt altering freeze.  Here's to a warm, shorts bearing Christmas.

Ray

I did not know that aspect of el nino.  The subtleties of long-term climatic events is a science of its own.  

This ENSO/warm is taking shape but seems to fade & strengthen. Provoking immediate buzz on weather sites  

Best bet positions the jet squarely over the Southwest by mid January.  "Weak" el nino can mean modest rainfall.  However 2004 brought record rainfall : 55" concentrated in 3 months was a "marginal" ENSO  

California is bracing for what could be a very violent/cold system [ " . . . THUNDERSTORMS...WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT . . " NWS-SD]. Current thinking is a more wind/less rain event  

LA : 76/55

[Neofolis]

Another night that didn't drop below 12°C/54°F.  They said on the news last night that "we are due to smash the record annual temperature since records started in 1659" and this is despite having a much colder than average first four months.

[BobbyinNY]

This is very interesting.. ..

We're having the warmest december on Record... Our daily high's have been in the mid-high 50's and the next 4 days are supposed to be above 60f with night lows only dropping down to the mid-high 40's..  I'll take it... saves me a TON of money. Everyone is growing like crazy with all the sun we've been getting.

[Alan_Tampa]

Ray, as happy as I am about your resurrection I am concerned that your pragmatic with pessimistic undertones weather commentary will make it difficult to maintain my hopeful but ready outlook.  Please indicate in a preamble if the body of a post contains doom and gloom prognostications.

That being said, a warm early winter can mean bad news for lychee, longan, citrus and other crop fruits as they will make new foliage which is easily damaged at temps which otherwise would be tolerated by trees in a more dormant stage.

True tropicals that do not experience a drought condition seasonally in "native climates" cannot truly become dormant and it makes little to no difference in cold weather survivability.  Actually, the warm periods are what keeps Cocos, Areca, Pritchardia from being memories at winters end.

Alan

[Neofolis]

I have to say, I've loved looking at the weather maps recently.  So which place Europe looks like the best place to grow palms?

[Kathy]

That is a pretty picture Corey!

[Steve]

According to Weather.com the high/low for my city:

Last Friday:  40F/19F

Tomorrow:   70F/42F

What a difference a week can make.  The extended forcast shows highs in the low 70's for the next five days.  I'm definitely liking this.  The scariest month still lies ahead though.  I'd like to order a January just like last one.

[happ]

Something ugly cometh  

A very cold rain w/ low snow levels [2500'] is poised to fall out of the upper atmosphere into California. Violent episodes that can include tornado/funnel & hail  

This system migrates into Texas early next week for an outbreak of storms & colder temps.

Heres hoping none of us experience any damaging weather  

LA : 79/59

[NBTX11]

(happ @ Dec. 14 2006,21:02)

QUOTE

This system migrates into Texas early next week for an outbreak of storms & colder temps.

No, say it isn't so.  Actually we could use the rain, as long as it isn't accompanied by cold weather.  Usually the Pacific fronts are not as cold as Artic fronts.

[happ]

This polar surge may be more overland than water, thus the colder temps, but sub-freeze temps appear less likely due to rainfall/clouds in both Cali & Texas.

Here's the scoop :

From NCEP

SYNOPSIS: An active pattern is in place with fast mid-latitude westerlies extending from the Pacific across the northern U.S. and the Atlantic. Most storminess will be concentrated along the southern coasts of Alaska, the Pacific Coast of the conus, and over the northwestern part of the country prior to this Assessment period, but early in the period a deepening trough moving inland across California is expected to bring a short period of heavy precipitation to that State. As this system moves eastward and temporarily closes off, snow and winter storm conditions are likely to develop over the southern and central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, while dry downslope winds could exacerbate wildfire risk over the southern Plains to the south of the storm. Another storm is predicted by some models to develop along the advancing cold front over the Mississippi Valley as this system continues to move eastward. Most of the East is expected to be relatively mild and dry until the cold front from this storm moves into the area during the latter half of next week. After this, the available models differ on timing of individual storms, and not much definite can be said about potential hazards.

HAZARDS

Heavy rain and mountain snow is likely over much of California Dec 16.

Snow and winter storm conditions are possible over much of the interior Southwest from the Mogollon Rim through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Dec 17-18.

A storm may bring snow and ice to parts of the lower Missouri and central Mississippi Valleys Dec 19-20.

Several gales are expected along the southern coasts of Alaska from Dec 17 through 20.

Strong winds with low humidities may result in an enhanced risk for wildfires over parts of the southern Great Plains on one or more days from Dec 16 through 18.

Severe drought is expected to persist across portions of the central United States, Arizona, and northeastern Florida.

 

DETAILED SUMMARY

For Saturday December 16 - Monday December 18: After storms over the Gulf of Alaska bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Alaska Panhandle and Pacific Northwest just before the period begins, a deepening trough over the eastern Pacific will bring rain, possibly heavy, with snow in the mountains, to California early in this period. As this storm moves eastward, heavy snow and winter storm conditions may develop over much of the southeastern Plateau, central and southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains, but there are considerable differences among some of the models on details. To the south of the storm center, strong downslope winds could exacerbate wildfire danger over parts of the southern Plains.

For Tuesday December 19 - Saturday December 23: The individual models begin to diverge from one another on details of the weather accompanying the slow eastward progress of a strongly amplified trough in the middle of the U.S., but some areas in the central part of the country are likely to have significant snow and ice, creating potentially hazardous travel conditions in the pre-holiday period. With such an amplified, slowly-moving system, there is also a potential for some severe weather but the timing and location can not be specified this far ahead. An anomalously strong ridge off the East Coast is expected to keep most areas east of the Mississippi River unseasonably mild until late in this period, when this system reaches the East. Until then, dry fine fuels in the southern and central Appalachians pose an underlying risk for wildfires in those areas. Gales are likely to continue over the Gulf of Alaska, affecting the southern coast and Panhandle regions of Alaska, primarily early in this period.

For Sunday December 24 - Wednesday December 27: Available GFS models indicate a strong trough amplifying over the Mississippi Valley early in this period, but after that, details of timing and paths of individual weather systems are highly uncertain.

12-14-96

[steve 9atx]

Kathy

Did I read your formula correctly?  Your part of the Golden State has increased in average temperature ten degrees Farenheit since the mid 50's?  And continues at a two-degree clip per decade?

Please advise,

Steve

[BobbyinNY]

This is SUCH a pretty Picture   :) :)

[Exotic Life]

Hi,

Like corey show you some cards, it's very mild here the last day's so much degrees above normal... Mostly the tempeture's not going down 6 c in the nights ... But the say for next week some more cold .... but freezing is not for sure ... !

We have the following records this year ...

* June one of the warmest months

* July warmest month ever

* August the wettest month

* September one of the warmest months

* Oktober one of the warmest monts

* November one of the warmest months

* The warmest autemm ever, this autemm gonna get a place nummer 2 ever.

* Also december looks like to break a record, warm record...

The year 2006 looks like to be a record ...

[happ]

Interesting data Steenbergen.  The accelerating taste of global warming .  

Essentially a "hurricane" slammed into Wash/Ore today    A region experiencing non-stop storms.  

The remnants will usher in thunderstorms/snowfall but modest rainfall    Closely followed by cold/dry advection;  perhaps minimums in the 30's even in San Francisco. NWS predicting max 59 for LA tomorrow  

LA : 68/56

[Exotic Life]

Happ,

Yeah if this mean global warming for here ? Let's go then ...

By the way, the don't expect freezing nights anymore

Robbin

[Jeff Searle]

Lots of good well needed rain today and a couple of days ago here in South Florida.

Jeff

[Exotic Life]

Do you want more rain ? ! We have got enough the last couple of day's ! You can taken it for free

[Trópico]

Warm in Orlando as far as the eye can see! :cool:

[Neofolis]

I'm not liking the outlook for the next week.

Today          high 4°C/39°F   -   low 1°C/34°F

Wednesday  high 3°C/37°F   -   low -3°C/27°F

Thursday      high 3°C/37°F   -   low -2°C/28°F

Friday          high 5°C/41°F   -   low -2°C/28°F

Saturday      high 4°C/39°F   -   low -1°C/30°F

Sunday        high 5°C/41°F   -   low 0°C/32°F

Monday        high 7°C/45°F   -   low 1°C/34°F

That said, the past couple of nights have been 3-4°C above the forecast temperature.

[amazondk]

It has been real rainy around here.  We are in the in the full rainy season mode now.

Today:

Manaus, BRA

Current Conditions (as of 2:00 PM) Today's forecast °F | °C

Mostly Cloudy81°F

Feels like: 85°F

Barometer: 29.8 in  

Dewpoint: 73°

Humidity: 79%

Visibility: 6 miles

Wind: 0 mph

Sunrise: 5:47 AM

Sunset: 6:06 PM

Observed at Eduardo Gomes International.

All times shown are local to Manaus.

Today  Hi: 89°

Lo: 77°

PM Rain

5 PM  82°

Showers / Clear

8 PM  79°

Sprinkles

11 PM  79°

Showers

We still get some sunshine though as it alternates between showers, thunderstorms, and sun.

dk

[Exotic Life]

(Neofolis @ Dec. 19 2006,04:39)

QUOTE

I'm not liking the outlook for the next week.

Today          high 4°C/39°F   -   low 1°C/34°F

Wednesday  high 3°C/37°F   -   low -3°C/27°F

Thursday      high 3°C/37°F   -   low -2°C/28°F

Friday          high 5°C/41°F   -   low -2°C/28°F

Saturday      high 4°C/39°F   -   low -1°C/30°F

Sunday        high 5°C/41°F   -   low 0°C/32°F

Monday        high 7°C/45°F   -   low 1°C/34°F

That said, the past couple of nights have been 3-4°C above the forecast temperature.

Wow,

England is gonna be colder then here again !  ???  Where i live it still frost free, i don't have got any freezing tempetures. So far i can see this hole week i don't get anything of freeze. The tempetures going to a little rising up then, thursdag the expected by day 10C

[ZoneTenNut]

Having some drop dead gorgeous weather here in South Florida lately. Some pretty good thunderstorms ran through the area yesterday and good chance of rain for the next couple days as well. Sunny with a nice SE breeze. Feels like a summer day with the warmth and humidity. I'll take it. Palms are pushing out new spears with all the rain and warmth.

[BobbyinNY]

Christmas day and 59f here right now... Yesterday was 65f... Not bad for Christmas here in New York... Supposed to drop a bit over the next week, but still 10-15f above normal.

[Neofolis]

No white Christmas here either, although we are still a couple of degrees C below average, but equally a couple of degrees above forecast.  Things are due to warm up gradually as the week goes on, so we are still on course for our warmest year "ever".

[happ]

Fairly warm in SoCal also but bone dry & occasionally windy.  Rain season behind schedule.  Spending Xmas Eve irrigating  

LA : 78/55

[Exotic Life]

Also here not a white Xmas. But a colder Xmas then the last few years ... but after Xmas the say the tempetures are going to rise again to 10C about day and a few degrees above freezing point in the nights, so this winter is perfect so far !!

Only 1 freeze night but that was nothing -0,3 C

[gsn]

Well this Thomas Giella guy, is predicting GLOOM and DOOM yet again for inland central Florida.

"On Tuesday December 26, 2006 much colder weather will sweep across the region behind the surface cold front. Temperatures will fall from 10-15 deg. above normal before the cold front to 10-15 deg. below normal after the cold front. A light freeze is possible into the inland rural central peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday morning's December 27-28, 2006.

The colder than normal weather will continue into Friday December 29, 2006. This will be followed by yet another possible "classic" El Nino induced winter storm with a widespread heavy to excessive rain event for the Saturday-Sunday December 30-31, 2006 period."

Any other forecast for inland central Florida I can find, doesn't even have it getting into the 30's. All are in the low 40's!

I'm beginning to think that this guy ,just doesn't want to miss the first freeze forecast of the year!!! ???

[spockvr6]

Scott-

I suspect Thomas is talking about the really cold spots that are inland and in very rural areas.  The readings at some of these stations can be mindboggling at times.

A place like Archbold (inland south/central FL) and the like is probably what he is talking about.  From his historical blogs, I believe that many of Thomas Giella's paying customers in years past were rural inland growers and as such he was concerned with forecasting for such areas (which would not be covered well with the generalized forecasts).

[gsn]

Larry,

I understand what you are saying. But I went as far north as alachua county, (gainesville),and the NWS isn't even predicting a freeze there,and some of the very small towns north and  northeast of gainesville are not forecast to freeze according to the NWS. And I really don't consider Gainesville central FLORIDA?

Waldo is only forecast to drop to 34F,

Graham 33F,La Crosse 34F according to the NWS , all very small  outlying towns north of Gainesville!

Maybe it's just me, but it seems since I have been following him, since you put the link up,that he really wants to be the first to get a freeze forecast when it actually does freeze! ???