Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming

[Kathryn]

Hmmm. I just heard one of the national weathermen say this will likely be the coldest winter in 14 years or so.

The forecasters here said the same thing the other day. Luckily our predicted low temperatures have warmed up a few degrees for tonight and tomorrow night.

[_Keith]

Hmmm. I just heard one of the national weathermen say this will likely be the coldest winter in 14 years or so.

The forecasters here said the same thing the other day. Luckily our predicted low temperatures have warmed up a few degrees for tonight and tomorrow night.

We bottomed out at 26 degrees last night, which was 3 warmer than predicted, but duration was a whole other matter. At 9:30am here it is still on 29 degrees, meaning over 12 hours below freezing. Much more damage noticeable out there than the other two 26 degree nights due to the duration. And the next two nights are gonna be the worst.

[Kathryn]

It's still 31ºF here at 10:30. We are supposed to get to 37ºF later today and then start cooling down again at sunset.

Here's a picture of my Caryota maxima Himalaya and Carpentaria taken this morning from an upstairs window. Both have some damage already. I planted the Carpentaria as a seedling several years ago and never thought it would live this long. I doubt it will live through the next two cold nights. The Caryota will probably suffer major leaf burn, but might have a chance of survival.

Here is a spiral ginger under a chinensis taken this morning. One exposed ginger stem has turned to mush while another two feet away is still green and flowering. There are some small Chamaedorea ernesti-augustii under these palms that will get tested.

[BobbyinNY]

It's still 31ºF here at 10:30. We are supposed to get to 37ºF later today and then start cooling down again at sunset.

Here's a picture of my Caryota maxima Himalaya and Carpentaria taken this morning from an upstairs window. Both have some damage already. I planted the Carpentaria as a seedling several years ago and never thought it would live this long. I doubt it will live through the next two cold nights. The Caryota will probably suffer major leaf burn, but might have a chance of survival.

Here is a spiral ginger under a chinensis taken this morning. One exposed ginger stem has turned to mush while another two feet away is still green and flowering. There are some small Chamaedorea ernesti-augustii under these palms that will get tested.

Kathryn,

If it makes you feel any better, we're at 33f right now, and we're (supposed) to go down to 20f tonight.

[chris.oz]

Hmmm. I just heard one of the national weathermen say this will likely be the coldest winter in 14 years or so.

While it is of some satisfaction to be right, I would have been happier to be wrong.

Keith, Seems like you were spot on.

UK is also very very cold.

Here, its pretty warm, but not that bad.

CHRIS

[Cristóbal]

the cold is also in my country in the east and south - in mexico city in the downtown they have some mix of rain and snow and in the more higher areas of the city theres snow.

the roads from mexico city to veracruz port are closed. snow !

snow in suburb santo tomás ajusco of mexico city, about 20 kilometers - 12 miles from the airport.

[SunnyFl]

Yep, Keith was quite right! This is nasty stuff.

From NWS...

"SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

547 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-091300-

LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...

INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...

NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...

BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN

547 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SOME LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN ACROSS WEST

CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AT 545 AM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO

INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW IS MIXING WITH THE RAIN AT

TIMES ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAINT

PETERSBURG TO FROSTPROOF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...AND

SNOW MIX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THROUGH

MID-MORNING.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST

LOCATIONS...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

BRIDGES... OVERPASSES AND LOW SPOTS USUALLY WILL DEVELOP ICE

FIRST. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION IF DRIVING ON AREA ROADWAYS THIS

MORNING."

In the paper yesterday, it said 7 of the planes at TIA were grounded due to frost on the wings. !!!

I don't understand these forecasts at all. On NOAA-radio, it said possibility of freezing conditions for 8 hours, with temps in the 20s. On the NOAA website, for our immediate area, it shows us with a low of 31 both Sat & Sun. Weather.com for our zip code is more optimistic. They can't all be right (I hope weather.com is!)

[PalmGuyWC]

Keith,

Your prediction from Oct. 14th is spot on. There are so many weather threads I can't keep up with all of them. This is like watching a horror movie, except it's all true. I pulled up the jet stream charts and this is a true Alberta Clipper. The jet stream is coming straight down from Alberta and dumping directly on Texas, then bending east towards Florida. At least Florida has the benifit of the Gulf moderating the temps somewhat.

I feel for you guys. This is sure going to change the landscape.

Dick

[amazondk]

Keith,

You certainly did post this thread in a timely manner. I will probably be going to Florida and maybe Houston in the coming months. And, I am sure the landscape will look a little different than it did in December.

dk

[_Keith]

A few more headlines.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/...n-50-years.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/...ts-predict.html

[DCA_Palm_Fan]

Something is definitely up for sure. While we have had some severe cold this winter, when its all averaged out, its not really that far off from "normal". The thing thats getting us here in the Mid Atlantic is the Snow. Were on pace to break a 100 year annual snowfall amount. (for a single winter, so technically that spans two years) Were getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 feet of snow over the next two days with this major storm that's coming. "officially" at the airport were at 27" on the year. I think we usually average around 7-8" per hear here at the airport. Though, the airport is always much lower in snow accumulations than all the surrounding areas, even areas literally right next to it.

[DCA_Palm_Fan]

I'm going to keep the Mid Atlantic Blizzard updates in a thread I started several days ago. You can find it by clicking HERE.

This will be my last post in this thread RE this super snowstorm in this thread.

Just in case anyone is listening or cares...

I have dubbed this superbowl weekend super snowstorm, "The Snowperbowl". LOL!

This is what we are in for:

For your reference, I am located at the very bottom right part of the "D" in DC on that map. I am in Old Town Alexandria, VA about 3/4 mile from the shores of the tidal Potomac River.

[_Keith]

There is weather, and there is climate. I'll be interested to see, at the end of the winter, whether this was indeed the coldest winter in a decade or so. Having a record cold blast does not necessarily mean it is a record cold winter. Here, we did get that record cold snap of a decade or so, and it seems like the coldest winter overall in the same period, but we have another month or so of stats to go.

As for me, I want to be wrong. Warm up, dangit.

[velutina]

I will not be surprised if this winter is the warmest in Las Vegas history. The coldest we got in my neighborhood was 30 degrees. Parts of my yard didn't even freeze (no banana damage). We usually get down to 25 degrees.

[bubba]

Keith, What do the sunspots look like next year? You certainly have my undivided attention.But it was not cold for those out West.Vegas can get cold but they were warmer than normal as was Ca. and Az.Why do the sunspots favor the West over the East?

[_Keith]

Keith, What do the sunspots look like next year? You certainly have my undivided attention.But it was not cold for those out West.Vegas can get cold but they were warmer than normal as was Ca. and Az.Why do the sunspots favor the West over the East?

The sun is still quiet. Lots of predictions, again, this year for the new cycle to kick off, but no sign of it actually starting. I think this would be a gradual cooling effect over years, rather than a big bang. And even in cooling, all areas don't cool evenly or equally. Some say the cooling effect would be much worse, that it is only offsetting global warming. That tidily takes care of both sides of the argument without having to have a winner in the warming debate. Heck, look at me talking like a scientist.

[amazondk]

I will not be surprised if this winter is the warmest in Las Vegas history. The coldest we got in my neighborhood was 30 degrees. Parts of my yard didn't even freeze (no banana damage). We usually get down to 25 degrees.

I am just curious, but how long are you considering history to be? Since temperatures have been recorded for only a short time in your area this would not seem to me to be a very good indication of climate variations.

dk

[velutina]

Amazondk,

There is weather data for Las Vegas going back to 1930s.

Listed below are the ten warmest years in recorded history for Las Vegas. Notice anything significant? I have a feeling 2010 will make the list as well and push 1996 of the chart.

71.1.....2007

70.0.....2009

70.0.....2008

70.0.....2005

70.0.....2003

69.8.....2006

69.7.....2000

69.6.....2001

69.4.....2004

69.4.....1996

Edited February 7, 2010 by velutina

[_Keith]

Amazondk,

There is weather data for Las Vegas going back to 1930s.

Listed below are the ten warmest years in recorded history for Las Vegas. Notice anything significant? I have a feeling 2010 will make the list as well and push 1996 of the chart.

71.1.....2007

70.0.....2009

70.0.....2008

70.0.....2005

70.0.....2003

69.8.....2006

69.7.....2000

69.6.....2001

69.4.....2004

69.4.....1996

Certainly, a rising trend. It was also a record growing trend, till last year, for Las Vegas. Where is temperature measured? I am curious is this might be representative of a growing "heat island" effect, on top of normal weather trends.

[velutina]

Temperatures are measured at McCarren International Airport, so I am fairly certain the "heat island" effect is a factor. McCarren Airport is right next to the strip and in the center of the valley. I live about 10 min from the airport in Henderson. Usually, we experience 2-3 degrees LOWER than that at the airport. This year seemed different. I think the official low at the airport was about 29, but my thermometers never went below 30F.

2007 was the warmest year in Las Vegas history, but I know a lot of people in the valley lost their queen palms that year due to extreme cold (17-22 degrees F). Despite the record cold that year, 2007 ended up warmer than any other year on record!

Fact is... climate change occurs (whether anthropomorphic or not).

[amazondk]

Fact is... climate change occurs (whether anthropomorphic or not).

That is exactly right. The one thing that climate always does is change. And, since the human life is but a flash on the clock of geologic time the only reference that really makes sense is what we see. The Earth is a very complex thing and from my observations anyway it is hard to generalize about anything.

dk

[velutina]

Oh, and I meant Anthropogenic

[_Keith]

The cold continues, and it sucks.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/extremes/2010-01-11-florida-cold_N.htm

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/AP/story/1471126.html

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/02/record-cold-weather-roundup-hundreds-of-new-cold-and-snow-records-set-in-the-last-week/

If you like to keep up with sunspot activity, this is an excellent site: http://solarcycle24.com/

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Fact is... climate change occurs (whether anthropomorphic or not).

That is exactly right. The one thing that climate always does is change. And, since the human life is but a flash on the clock of geologic time the only reference that really makes sense is what we see. The Earth is a very complex thing and from my observations anyway it is hard to generalize about anything.

dk

So true, Don! We're grains of sand in the "hourglass of humans' reign" on this precious blue marble!

Dr. Paul

[Moose]

Bah humbug! I just planted a Deckenia nobilis - that is my opinion about how much cold will be happening in my neck of the woods this winter!

> < >

[BS Man about Palms]

Bah humbug! I just planted a Deckenia nobilis - that is my opinion about how much cold will be happening in my neck of the woods this winter!

> < >

So that was a no-go then Moose?

[Jimbean]

"Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming"

No Kidding!

[_Keith]

"Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming"

No Kidding!

No kidding, and I bet not one person took it seriously when I called it back in October. Actually, I am not sure I did either, but the effects of diminished sunspots are real and documented.

[Derekjp]

It seems this cold is due to a strong negative phase of the arctic oscillation and the incresed precipitation/snow are due to El Nino. I don't think you can blame this on global warming or climate change as these phenomena have occured long before the industrial revolution. Good job though on your prediction... I wish you had been wrong though.

[happ]

The winter of 2009-10 is being carefully studied for it's impact on the northern hemisphere. Not universally cold in all regions [and much above normal at times in the U.S. Pacific Northwest]. Extremely wet in the southern U.S. though only sporadically so in California\ Arizona. Record snowfall in Eastern U.S. & too warm for snow in Western Canada. Sustained cold in Texas\ Gulf\ Southeast U.S. Europe has had periods of intense cold.

[richtrav]

For anyone who has the patience for some slightly technical reading there was an excellent post by a pro met made last September about this winter. The lack of sunspots played a minor role in his forecast of the winter but much of it was due to the type of El Niño conditions that were developing:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=205478

For the dumbed down version with pictures, here were the author's bottom line predictions for this winter for temperatures and snow (remember this was done last September):

Sure some of the map is a little off but overall it was I think an excellent analysis, especially for the east.

And while I'm not the biggest fan of Joe Bastardi due to his tendency to overhype (gotta sell those accuweather subscriptions), he does have an interesting video that's worth watching whether you're in the AGW camp or not (I think you can tell from the video Joe is very skeptical about the role of AGW on our climate, but his points still have merit):

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=44795589001&title=The

[gsn]

The winter of 2009-10 is being carefully studied for it's impact on the northern hemisphere. Not universally cold in all regions [and much above normal at times in the U.S. Pacific Northwest]. Extremely wet in the southern U.S. though only sporadically so in California\ Arizona. Record snowfall in Eastern U.S. & too warm for snow in Western Canada. Sustained cold in Texas\ Gulf\ Southeast U.S. Europe has had periods of intense cold.

After they get done CAREFULLY studying it,I hope they file it in the very back of a large file cabinet ,never to resurface again!

Edited February 16, 2010 by gsn

[_Keith]

Another bit of evidence as to how cold this winter was:

Lake Erie frozen over for the first time in 14 years

Following a cold snap in the Northeast, Lake Erie's surface is virtually frozen over for the first time in about 14 years.

The ice ranges in thickness between paper thin along the northern shore and several inches along the southern shore, where many people are ice skating.

Although the ice cover is considered complete, prevailing winds have created some cracks in the ice. There are also reportedly ice chunks floating off the coast of Dunkirk, N.Y., which is one of the deepest parts of the lake and would naturally be one of the last places to freeze.

Lake Erie, with an average depth of 62 feet, is the most shallow of the five Great Lakes, which is why it is the only one that completely freezes over.

Since lake-effect snow depends on warmer lake temperatures compared to the air, the frozen lake will deter large amounts of snowfall to the lee of the lake.

The current cold snap will keep the lake mostly, if not completely, frozen for at least the rest of the month.

Source: Accuweather

[Don]

Another bit of evidence as to how cold this winter was:

Lake Erie frozen over for the first time in 14 years

Following a cold snap in the Northeast, Lake Erie's surface is virtually frozen over for the first time in about 14 years.

The ice ranges in thickness between paper thin along the northern shore and several inches along the southern shore, where many people are ice skating.

Although the ice cover is considered complete, prevailing winds have created some cracks in the ice. There are also reportedly ice chunks floating off the coast of Dunkirk, N.Y., which is one of the deepest parts of the lake and would naturally be one of the last places to freeze.

Lake Erie, with an average depth of 62 feet, is the most shallow of the five Great Lakes, which is why it is the only one that completely freezes over.

Since lake-effect snow depends on warmer lake temperatures compared to the air, the frozen lake will deter large amounts of snowfall to the lee of the lake.

The current cold snap will keep the lake mostly, if not completely, frozen for at least the rest of the month.

Source: Accuweather

Please stop lets think warm thoughts, my toes are still cold from bein out there all day

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

BBBRRRRRRRR!

Paul

[gsytch]

Well in Tampa Bay it is the coldest since 1981. I imagine, probably, even colder. 3 straight days (more) under 60F with strong breezes making it feel even colder. This is OLD. I am excited about Sunday's 72F predicted high - which still is one degree below normal! Greg ffffffffrrrrrrrrreezing in NPR

[redant]

In palm beach county 11th coldest winter on record going back to 1888. Coldest since 1981, still not as devastating to palms as 1989 though. I hate this winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[_Keith]

Well in Tampa Bay it is the coldest since 1981. I imagine, probably, even colder. 3 straight days (more) under 60F with strong breezes making it feel even colder. This is OLD. I am excited about Sunday's 72F predicted high - which still is one degree below normal! Greg ffffffffrrrrrrrrreezing in NPR

We are looking at 72 on Sunday as well, and 69 on Saturday. I plan on spending the whole weekend out in the yard. I may even get brave and plant a tomato. Yahoo.

[Zeeth]

Well, Keith pretty much predicted the most devastating freeze event in my lifetime... Keith, what do you say about next winter?

[_Keith]

Well, Keith pretty much predicted the most devastating freeze event in my lifetime... Keith, what do you say about next winter?

The sun better start making some spots, and soon.