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Jan 10-14 looks cold in the southeast


SubTropicRay

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What is up with east coast, west coast differential?

Must be wind direction....maybe you guys will luck out and the winds will have a good easterly component. Good for you...bad for us!

Larry that doesn't seem to be the case unfortunately, they are predicting north /northwest winds through Saturday? :hmm:

Maybe our guys are just sleepin? :lol:

Last I checked, they said NE winds over here.

We both just need to switch and the problem would be solved :mrlooney:

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Ray,

I just saw the prediction on Accuweather for a low of 27f in Tampa on Friday Morning.... I was like HOLY CRAP.... but if it makes you feel any better, it will be in the single digits here tomorrow morning - the coldest air mass to Hit Long Island since 94.

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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Last I checked, they said NE winds over here.

We both just need to switch and the problem would be solved :mrlooney:

Sounds like a plan, logistically might be a problem? :blink:

Straight off the NWS presses:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 64. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Friday: Isolated sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Isolated sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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I heard the weather forecast for Fort Myers on the way to work this morning. They now predict lows of 36F in town Friday & Saturday morning, colder inland. The lows keep dropping. Guess I'll be moving/wrapping plants tomorrow night.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Bobby,

No 20's expected here brother. That will be someone elses problem.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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The latest GFS NAM (warm model) came back with a 44F for Tampa Saturday morning. For the record, it was closer to correct this morning than the cold model. I love that this number is going up because the NWS blends the two models to forecast their morning lows. Per the NWS discussion, Friday morning will be the coldest.

The cold model (MAV) is now at 34F Saturday morning. The entire event appears to be advective cold. Above freezing, this is good as it prevents a quick temperature fall. Radiational conditions are best below freezing so that frost can help insulate the plants.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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The latest GFS NAM (warm model) came back with a 44F for Tampa Saturday morning. For the record, it was closer to correct this morning than the cold model. I love that this number is going up because the NWS blends the two models to forecast their morning lows. Per the NWS discussion, Friday morning will be the coldest.

The cold model (MAV) is now at 34F Saturday morning. The entire event appears to be advective cold. Above freezing, this is good as it prevents a quick temperature fall. Radiational conditions are best below freezing so that frost can help insulate the plants.

Maybe there's hope for Fort Myers/Cape Coral

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Accuweather has Gainesville at 17F for Sat Morning.

NWS '' 20F ''

Weather.com '' 29F ''

My lunch hour will consist of dragging plants into the greenhouse.

I hope all models start bumping up their lows.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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oh my!!!!! forecasts keep changing

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tallahass...=1&metric=0

ACCUWEATHER has friday night at 6 DEGREES!!!!!!!

NOAA predicting 13!!!!!

I am not there to protect either

Luke

Tallahassee, FL - USDA zone 8b/9a

63" rain annually

January avg 65/40 - July avg 92/73

North Florida Palm Society - http://palmsociety.blogspot.com/

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oh my!!!!! forecasts keep changing

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tallahass...=1&metric=0

ACCUWEATHER has friday night at 6 DEGREES!!!!!!!

NOAA predicting 13!!!!!

I am not there to protect either

6F???? In Talahassee.. Holy Crap.. that's even colder than the 8f they're forecasting for here and everyone is freaking out.. People are going to supermarkets to stock up on everything...

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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Hey All,

just a thought who ever brought anti-stress 2000 this is a good time to apply to your palms for a pre-caution just incase

and if we do get frost before sunrise as long your above 32 you can wash it off to prevent frost damage

to the fronds. I just saw an update for pinellas lows in the low 40's to mid 40's again have to see if this really does indeed happen

the best bet is to expect mid 30's to mid 40's where you are covered. :blink:

Matthew Albach

Pinellas Park FLorida

USDA zone 10a

sunset zone 26

heat zone   10

mostly frost free most years.

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Looks like everyone crawled into Rays' hole???

Or they are out lugging palms inside? :winkie:

Good luck everyone, this forecast is all over the place!

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Looks like everyone crawled into Rays' hole???

Or they are out lugging palms inside? :winkie:

:winkie: backatcha - I asked my husband to haul em in :lol:

Because they're in pots, they shouldn't be subjected to what ever it's going to do the next few nights.

So far, in my tiny house we have:

5 or 6 seedlings of D. albofarinosa & D. ambositrae (the real ambo)

1 Cyrtostachys that will probaby cark in spring as it was outdoors last night, grr

1 too-large lepto x decaryi cross (d*mn this is a gorgeous palm - everyone should have at least 2 or 3)

2 Arecas guppyana (he couldn't find the triandra)

1 Actinokentia

a beautiful Coccothrinax alta

2 other palms that I've forgotten

2 gloriosa crotons

1 Zanzibar

1 Unknown croton

1 Unknown Costa Rican croton

1 Captain Kidd (can't find the @#$%@# Edison or Caribbean Star)

1 "Pop's Yard" croton (Pop, as in Jeff Searle's Pop)

1 Frank Brown cordyline

1 Pink Diamond cordyline

Now I've got to run out there and bring in some more. Anyone else have a list of plants they're bringing in? Care to share?

argh I need a greenhouse

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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We are supposed to hit 9F here. All of my palms are "Cold Hardy", but this may be testing them a bit. I am most concerned with two Sabal Palmettos that were transplanted last May. I'm not sure if they are established enough to take those kind of lows.

Tim

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Anyone else have a list of plants they're bringing in? Care to share?

Everything in my yard has to ride it out :mrlooney:

Temps as forecast arent really going to harm anything, outside of perhaps one or two things and these will only be cosmetically damaged.

Edited by spockvr6

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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reminds me of the military...................

hurry up and wait! :mrlooney:

Thursday's predicted low is 39F, and then Friday's predicted low for me is 34F. ugh! Just when some of my tropical plants were recovering from the oct/nov cold we got, bamm!! here is comes again. Where is a warm front when you need one!!

"Randy" IPS member # 150229

Dover, FL (West of Plant City, FL)

120 feet above sea level

Average Yearly Rainfall is 51.17 inches per year

Average Summer Temp 83F

Average Winter Temp 62F

USDA Zone 9a/9b

Dover.gif

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We are looking at 28 tomorrow night and the 30 the night after. Should be OK.

We hit 30 this morning, but it was 33 till an hour before daybreak. Then it made a quick drop to 30 right after daybreak. Water in the outside dog bowl didn't even skin over. Nasty little frost, but I don't have anything frost tender exposed.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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For posterity (so we can look back and either mock, or revel in these forecasts), here is what the same sources (plus weatherunderground) show for 34689 (Tarpon Springs).

NWS

Tonight - 42 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 37 F

Sat night - 43 F

Weather.com

Tonight - 41 F

Thurs night - 34 F

Fri night - 36 F

Sat night - 43 F

Accuweather

Tonight - 45 F

Thurs night - 35 F

Fri night - 38 F

Sat night - 42 F

Weatherunderground

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 38 F

Fri night - 34 F

Sat night - 41 F

They got the low pretty close this AM. I logged 45.4F.

NWS got it this AM....I logged 42.2F for the low at 632AM. The next few nights should be more interesting.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry, As always I end up 2-4 deg. colder than you. My low this morning was 39.7F. Sat. morning will tell the tell. Scott

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Holy Crap. Now they are saying 5 F. Looks like I'll have something to post on Freeze Damage Data if my palms make it. :unsure:

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Holy Crap. Now they are saying 5 F. Looks like I'll have something to post on Freeze Damage Data if my palms make it. :unsure:

Tim,

Just curious... what do you have in the ground in your area.... I have a 6ft Trachy that I covered in early december (no supplemental heat), and so far, so good... But we haven't gotten anywhere near single digits yet - the next few nights will be a test.

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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Rhapidophylum hystrix

Sabal Minor

Trachy Fortunei

Butia Capitata

Chamaerop humilis

Sabal Palmetto

I'm a little concerned about Butia Capitata and Sabal Palmetto. The Sabals were transplanted in May. I think that they are tough, but they were recently transplanted (Less than year).

I wonder if I have planted $2,000 worth of annuals. :hmm:

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Numbers are UP!!!

As of 6AM EST, the GFS NAM is down to a balmy 38F for Saturday morning. This was the warmer of the models but 38F is a cakewalk.

The colder GFS MAV is up to 37F so there's now a model consensus. I like the numbers compared to what the models were spitting out Monday.

Scott, I've officially come out of the hole. It was getting crowded down there.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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The 12PM EST GFS NAM is back to 40F Saturday morning. I hope this trend continues.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Ray-

I noticed the same upward trend as well. Heck, NWS is now showing lower 40's for Tarpon Springs. Although this may not play out at my house (as I am 1.5 miles inland), it sure seems like the direction of the forecasts is up up up.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Ray,

We go through this every season-- Dire initial predictions by Accuweather than - I guess this unfolding drama gets more folks to watch the news!--

I have a bit of wrapping to do of my Zone 10 plants up here in Jax. this afternoon. Thank God for my greenhouses

Best regards,

Ed

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weather.com saying 28 and 29 next two nights. Local weather peeps are saying 25 and 26. I am pulling for weather.com.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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You're right Ed. What would we do if mother nature didn't throw us a monkey wrench here and there?! Don't answer that, I can think of plenty.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Weather.com is always 5f too high, and Accuweather is always 5f too low.. I guess I'll just average them out.

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

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Ray,

Is that a half full glass attitude I detect? Remember the OTHER shoe, the weterman is poised to DROP it! :lol:

All kidding aside we are extremely lucky that REAL artic air didn't push down into central Florida. The rest of the midwest , northeast, and southeast is frigid!

I was exactly the same as Larry here 42.2F

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Weather.com is always 5f too high, and Accuweather is always 5f too low.. I guess I'll just average them out.

Weather.com has been the most accurate for winter lows in my area for the past several years. I believe NOAA generally trends on the low side to cover the spread, and also to give those affected by the cold some warning of what could happen. Accuweather is usually on the "the world is going to end" side of the spectrum. I certainly hope that we don't get 17F here Friday night.

Also, the friday NOAA forecast has begun to trend upwards since this morning. Hopefully this will continue.

Also, the cold will really depend on how far the "second" front makes it south.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Hopefully this won't be to long for a post but I thought it was interesting for those in North and Central Fl.

This is the NOAA regional forecast.

SHORT TERM...VERY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED THIS

AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S. COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF AREA

AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND S OF THE CWA

BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS IN

SE GA AND 20S NE FL TONIGHT. A VERY COLD HIGH (1047MB) NEAR NE/IA

BORDER WILL CONTINUE DIVING SEWD WITH SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE

GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH RESULTING IN WINDS OF 10

TO 15 MPH SWEEPING OVER THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL

COMBINE WITH FREEZING TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID

TEENS IN SE GA AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S NE FL. THUS A WIND CHILL

ADVISORY IS REQUIRED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING

THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT. SHOULD

THESE CLOUDS BE SLOWER TO EXIT THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS

LOW AS ANTICIPATED. ATTM EXPECT HARD FREEZE SE GA AND SUWANNEE

VALLEY NE FL WITH FRZ WARNING ELSEWHERE. MINS ABOVE FRZG ARE

POSSIBLE NEAR COAST SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE

IN MID 40S N TO MID 50S S.

THE COLD HIGH WILL TRACK N OF AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL

BE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FRI NIGHT. THUS NO WIND CHILL ADV WILL BE

NEEDED ALTHOUGH COLDEST TEMPS FOR THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARE

EXPECTED EARLY SAT MORNING. THUS A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT

FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. FREEZING TEMPS AT THE

BEACHES DEPENDS ON WHETHER WINDS DEVELOP A SLIGHT NE COMPONENT.

FREEZING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD.

A TEMPORARY WARMUP (MID 50S N TO LOW 60S S) WILL BE FELT SUNDAY

DUE TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT

MOISTURE TO BE WRUNG OUT OF FRONT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA

AND WILL GO WITH 20% POPS SUNDAY AFTN THRU THE NIGHT AS FRONT

MOVES THRU THE REGION. MINS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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It got to 37F this Thursday Morning (Forecast was for 39F) Im guessing it will be much cooler tonight than i had planned, time to go outside and see which plants to bring in and which ones will stay outside to rough it out. :huh:

"Randy" IPS member # 150229

Dover, FL (West of Plant City, FL)

120 feet above sea level

Average Yearly Rainfall is 51.17 inches per year

Average Summer Temp 83F

Average Winter Temp 62F

USDA Zone 9a/9b

Dover.gif

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Ray-

I noticed the same upward trend as well. Heck, NWS is now showing lower 40's for Tarpon Springs. Although this may not play out at my house (as I am 1.5 miles inland), it sure seems like the direction of the forecasts is up up up.

Ahhh...the trend was shortlived!

Now, the forecasts are all down again.

And, the pessimist of the bunch (weatherunderground.com) is now forecasting 32F for Saturday morning!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Larry nothing changed over here,you must have a faster computer? :lol:

The cold day over here they are calling for Monday night??? :hmm:

NWS

Fri night - 42 F

Sat night - 41 F

Weather.com

Fri night - 38 F

Sat night - 44 F

Accuweather

Fri night - 36 F (but it has been 36F all day,no change)

Sat night - 42 F

Weatherunderground

Fri night - 40F

Sat night - 40F

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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Checking in from the N.W Florida Coast....Panama City expecting 28 overnight.....tommorow it it forcasted to go down to 24........brrr....this is the coldest its been in years here. This is the first real test of my Bizmarkia's and Queens as well as some small R. rivularis in the ground ........at least it is a dry cold. :unsure:

Will post any data as to the survivability of my more marginal stuff.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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I love clouds as well.

Forecast of 27F ended up being 34F. They have been adjusting tonight's forecast as well. 17F is the new 25F.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Clouds and a breeze, and 43.6 this morning ! I can deal with that. Love those clouds.

Yeah! Clouds rock! Although, I would prefer them with a nice NW breeze.....

Got me beat this AM.....I dropped to 42.8F at 831AM.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

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Missed it here LOW by a fair margin as well, 46.6F. But bettermissing it low than high!

There are so many variables with weather, it is hard to get it RIGHT even 12 hours in advance! just sayin!

By the way they had factored in the cloud cover in their forecast, at least for here.

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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