spockvr6 Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 What is up with east coast, west coast differential? Must be wind direction....maybe you guys will luck out and the winds will have a good easterly component. Good for you...bad for us! Larry that doesn't seem to be the case unfortunately, they are predicting north /northwest winds through Saturday? Maybe our guys are just sleepin? Last I checked, they said NE winds over here. We both just need to switch and the problem would be solved Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyinNY Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Ray, I just saw the prediction on Accuweather for a low of 27f in Tampa on Friday Morning.... I was like HOLY CRAP.... but if it makes you feel any better, it will be in the single digits here tomorrow morning - the coldest air mass to Hit Long Island since 94. Bobby Long Island, New York Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from) AVERAGE TEMPS Summer Highs : 85-90f/day, 68-75f / night Winter Lows : 38-45f/day, 25-35f / night Extreme Low : 10-20f/day, 0-10f / night but VERY RARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsn Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Last I checked, they said NE winds over here. We both just need to switch and the problem would be solved Sounds like a plan, logistically might be a problem? Straight off the NWS presses: Today: Sunny, with a high near 64. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North northwest wind around 15 mph. Friday: Isolated sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Friday Night: Isolated sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Scott Titusville, FL 1/2 mile from the Indian River USDA Zone COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PalmatierMeg Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 I heard the weather forecast for Fort Myers on the way to work this morning. They now predict lows of 36F in town Friday & Saturday morning, colder inland. The lows keep dropping. Guess I'll be moving/wrapping plants tomorrow night. Meg Palms of Victory I shall wear Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise) Florida Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal Elevation: 15 feetI'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubTropicRay Posted January 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Bobby, No 20's expected here brother. That will be someone elses problem. Ray Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10A Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubTropicRay Posted January 14, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 The latest GFS NAM (warm model) came back with a 44F for Tampa Saturday morning. For the record, it was closer to correct this morning than the cold model. I love that this number is going up because the NWS blends the two models to forecast their morning lows. Per the NWS discussion, Friday morning will be the coldest. The cold model (MAV) is now at 34F Saturday morning. The entire event appears to be advective cold. Above freezing, this is good as it prevents a quick temperature fall. Radiational conditions are best below freezing so that frost can help insulate the plants. Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10A Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PalmatierMeg Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 The latest GFS NAM (warm model) came back with a 44F for Tampa Saturday morning. For the record, it was closer to correct this morning than the cold model. I love that this number is going up because the NWS blends the two models to forecast their morning lows. Per the NWS discussion, Friday morning will be the coldest. The cold model (MAV) is now at 34F Saturday morning. The entire event appears to be advective cold. Above freezing, this is good as it prevents a quick temperature fall. Radiational conditions are best below freezing so that frost can help insulate the plants. Maybe there's hope for Fort Myers/Cape Coral Meg Palms of Victory I shall wear Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise) Florida Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal Elevation: 15 feetI'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tank Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Accuweather has Gainesville at 17F for Sat Morning. NWS '' 20F '' Weather.com '' 29F '' My lunch hour will consist of dragging plants into the greenhouse. I hope all models start bumping up their lows. Jason Gainesville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRITO Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 oh my!!!!! forecasts keep changing http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tallahass...=1&metric=0 ACCUWEATHER has friday night at 6 DEGREES!!!!!!! NOAA predicting 13!!!!! I am not there to protect either Luke Tallahassee, FL - USDA zone 8b/9a 63" rain annually January avg 65/40 - July avg 92/73 North Florida Palm Society - http://palmsociety.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyinNY Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 oh my!!!!! forecasts keep changing http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tallahass...=1&metric=0 ACCUWEATHER has friday night at 6 DEGREES!!!!!!! NOAA predicting 13!!!!! I am not there to protect either 6F???? In Talahassee.. Holy Crap.. that's even colder than the 8f they're forecasting for here and everyone is freaking out.. People are going to supermarkets to stock up on everything... Bobby Long Island, New York Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from) AVERAGE TEMPS Summer Highs : 85-90f/day, 68-75f / night Winter Lows : 38-45f/day, 25-35f / night Extreme Low : 10-20f/day, 0-10f / night but VERY RARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falcon1988 Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Hey All, just a thought who ever brought anti-stress 2000 this is a good time to apply to your palms for a pre-caution just incase and if we do get frost before sunrise as long your above 32 you can wash it off to prevent frost damage to the fronds. I just saw an update for pinellas lows in the low 40's to mid 40's again have to see if this really does indeed happen the best bet is to expect mid 30's to mid 40's where you are covered. Matthew Albach Pinellas Park FLorida USDA zone 10a sunset zone 26 heat zone 10 mostly frost free most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsn Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 Looks like everyone crawled into Rays' hole??? Or they are out lugging palms inside? Good luck everyone, this forecast is all over the place! Scott Titusville, FL 1/2 mile from the Indian River USDA Zone COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFl Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Looks like everyone crawled into Rays' hole??? Or they are out lugging palms inside? backatcha - I asked my husband to haul em in Because they're in pots, they shouldn't be subjected to what ever it's going to do the next few nights. So far, in my tiny house we have: 5 or 6 seedlings of D. albofarinosa & D. ambositrae (the real ambo) 1 Cyrtostachys that will probaby cark in spring as it was outdoors last night, grr 1 too-large lepto x decaryi cross (d*mn this is a gorgeous palm - everyone should have at least 2 or 3) 2 Arecas guppyana (he couldn't find the triandra) 1 Actinokentia a beautiful Coccothrinax alta 2 other palms that I've forgotten 2 gloriosa crotons 1 Zanzibar 1 Unknown croton 1 Unknown Costa Rican croton 1 Captain Kidd (can't find the @#$%@# Edison or Caribbean Star) 1 "Pop's Yard" croton (Pop, as in Jeff Searle's Pop) 1 Frank Brown cordyline 1 Pink Diamond cordyline Now I've got to run out there and bring in some more. Anyone else have a list of plants they're bringing in? Care to share? argh I need a greenhouse St. Pete Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10 Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carolinapalms Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 We are supposed to hit 9F here. All of my palms are "Cold Hardy", but this may be testing them a bit. I am most concerned with two Sabal Palmettos that were transplanted last May. I'm not sure if they are established enough to take those kind of lows. Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spockvr6 Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 (edited) Anyone else have a list of plants they're bringing in? Care to share? Everything in my yard has to ride it out Temps as forecast arent really going to harm anything, outside of perhaps one or two things and these will only be cosmetically damaged. Edited January 15, 2009 by spockvr6 Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatmiata Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 reminds me of the military................... hurry up and wait! Thursday's predicted low is 39F, and then Friday's predicted low for me is 34F. ugh! Just when some of my tropical plants were recovering from the oct/nov cold we got, bamm!! here is comes again. Where is a warm front when you need one!! "Randy" IPS member # 150229 Dover, FL (West of Plant City, FL) 120 feet above sea level Average Yearly Rainfall is 51.17 inches per year Average Summer Temp 83F Average Winter Temp 62F USDA Zone 9a/9b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Keith Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 We are looking at 28 tomorrow night and the 30 the night after. Should be OK. We hit 30 this morning, but it was 33 till an hour before daybreak. Then it made a quick drop to 30 right after daybreak. Water in the outside dog bowl didn't even skin over. Nasty little frost, but I don't have anything frost tender exposed. In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spockvr6 Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 For posterity (so we can look back and either mock, or revel in these forecasts), here is what the same sources (plus weatherunderground) show for 34689 (Tarpon Springs). NWS Tonight - 42 F Thurs night - 41 F Fri night - 37 F Sat night - 43 F Weather.com Tonight - 41 F Thurs night - 34 F Fri night - 36 F Sat night - 43 F Accuweather Tonight - 45 F Thurs night - 35 F Fri night - 38 F Sat night - 42 F Weatherunderground Tonight - 40 F Thurs night - 38 F Fri night - 34 F Sat night - 41 F They got the low pretty close this AM. I logged 45.4F. NWS got it this AM....I logged 42.2F for the low at 632AM. The next few nights should be more interesting. Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tampa Scott Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Larry, As always I end up 2-4 deg. colder than you. My low this morning was 39.7F. Sat. morning will tell the tell. Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carolinapalms Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Holy Crap. Now they are saying 5 F. Looks like I'll have something to post on Freeze Damage Data if my palms make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyinNY Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Holy Crap. Now they are saying 5 F. Looks like I'll have something to post on Freeze Damage Data if my palms make it. Tim, Just curious... what do you have in the ground in your area.... I have a 6ft Trachy that I covered in early december (no supplemental heat), and so far, so good... But we haven't gotten anywhere near single digits yet - the next few nights will be a test. Bobby Long Island, New York Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from) AVERAGE TEMPS Summer Highs : 85-90f/day, 68-75f / night Winter Lows : 38-45f/day, 25-35f / night Extreme Low : 10-20f/day, 0-10f / night but VERY RARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carolinapalms Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Rhapidophylum hystrix Sabal Minor Trachy Fortunei Butia Capitata Chamaerop humilis Sabal Palmetto I'm a little concerned about Butia Capitata and Sabal Palmetto. The Sabals were transplanted in May. I think that they are tough, but they were recently transplanted (Less than year). I wonder if I have planted $2,000 worth of annuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubTropicRay Posted January 15, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Numbers are UP!!! As of 6AM EST, the GFS NAM is down to a balmy 38F for Saturday morning. This was the warmer of the models but 38F is a cakewalk. The colder GFS MAV is up to 37F so there's now a model consensus. I like the numbers compared to what the models were spitting out Monday. Scott, I've officially come out of the hole. It was getting crowded down there. Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10A Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubTropicRay Posted January 15, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 The 12PM EST GFS NAM is back to 40F Saturday morning. I hope this trend continues. Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10A Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spockvr6 Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Ray- I noticed the same upward trend as well. Heck, NWS is now showing lower 40's for Tarpon Springs. Although this may not play out at my house (as I am 1.5 miles inland), it sure seems like the direction of the forecasts is up up up. Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edbrown_III Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Ray, We go through this every season-- Dire initial predictions by Accuweather than - I guess this unfolding drama gets more folks to watch the news!-- I have a bit of wrapping to do of my Zone 10 plants up here in Jax. this afternoon. Thank God for my greenhouses Best regards, Ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Keith Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 weather.com saying 28 and 29 next two nights. Local weather peeps are saying 25 and 26. I am pulling for weather.com. In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SubTropicRay Posted January 15, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 You're right Ed. What would we do if mother nature didn't throw us a monkey wrench here and there?! Don't answer that, I can think of plenty. Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10A Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA subtropical USDA Zone 10B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyinNY Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Weather.com is always 5f too high, and Accuweather is always 5f too low.. I guess I'll just average them out. Bobby Long Island, New York Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from) AVERAGE TEMPS Summer Highs : 85-90f/day, 68-75f / night Winter Lows : 38-45f/day, 25-35f / night Extreme Low : 10-20f/day, 0-10f / night but VERY RARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsn Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Ray, Is that a half full glass attitude I detect? Remember the OTHER shoe, the weterman is poised to DROP it! All kidding aside we are extremely lucky that REAL artic air didn't push down into central Florida. The rest of the midwest , northeast, and southeast is frigid! I was exactly the same as Larry here 42.2F Scott Titusville, FL 1/2 mile from the Indian River USDA Zone COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tank Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Weather.com is always 5f too high, and Accuweather is always 5f too low.. I guess I'll just average them out. Weather.com has been the most accurate for winter lows in my area for the past several years. I believe NOAA generally trends on the low side to cover the spread, and also to give those affected by the cold some warning of what could happen. Accuweather is usually on the "the world is going to end" side of the spectrum. I certainly hope that we don't get 17F here Friday night. Also, the friday NOAA forecast has begun to trend upwards since this morning. Hopefully this will continue. Also, the cold will really depend on how far the "second" front makes it south. Jason Gainesville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tank Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Hopefully this won't be to long for a post but I thought it was interesting for those in North and Central Fl. This is the NOAA regional forecast. SHORT TERM...VERY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S. COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF AREA AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND S OF THE CWA BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS IN SE GA AND 20S NE FL TONIGHT. A VERY COLD HIGH (1047MB) NEAR NE/IA BORDER WILL CONTINUE DIVING SEWD WITH SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH RESULTING IN WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH SWEEPING OVER THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FREEZING TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TEENS IN SE GA AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S NE FL. THUS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS BE SLOWER TO EXIT THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS ANTICIPATED. ATTM EXPECT HARD FREEZE SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY NE FL WITH FRZ WARNING ELSEWHERE. MINS ABOVE FRZG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COAST SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE IN MID 40S N TO MID 50S S. THE COLD HIGH WILL TRACK N OF AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FRI NIGHT. THUS NO WIND CHILL ADV WILL BE NEEDED ALTHOUGH COLDEST TEMPS FOR THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARE EXPECTED EARLY SAT MORNING. THUS A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. FREEZING TEMPS AT THE BEACHES DEPENDS ON WHETHER WINDS DEVELOP A SLIGHT NE COMPONENT. FREEZING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD. A TEMPORARY WARMUP (MID 50S N TO LOW 60S S) WILL BE FELT SUNDAY DUE TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE WRUNG OUT OF FRONT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL GO WITH 20% POPS SUNDAY AFTN THRU THE NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MINS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S. Jason Gainesville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatmiata Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 It got to 37F this Thursday Morning (Forecast was for 39F) Im guessing it will be much cooler tonight than i had planned, time to go outside and see which plants to bring in and which ones will stay outside to rough it out. "Randy" IPS member # 150229 Dover, FL (West of Plant City, FL) 120 feet above sea level Average Yearly Rainfall is 51.17 inches per year Average Summer Temp 83F Average Winter Temp 62F USDA Zone 9a/9b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spockvr6 Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Ray- I noticed the same upward trend as well. Heck, NWS is now showing lower 40's for Tarpon Springs. Although this may not play out at my house (as I am 1.5 miles inland), it sure seems like the direction of the forecasts is up up up. Ahhh...the trend was shortlived! Now, the forecasts are all down again. And, the pessimist of the bunch (weatherunderground.com) is now forecasting 32F for Saturday morning! Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsn Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Larry nothing changed over here,you must have a faster computer? The cold day over here they are calling for Monday night??? NWS Fri night - 42 F Sat night - 41 F Weather.com Fri night - 38 F Sat night - 44 F Accuweather Fri night - 36 F (but it has been 36F all day,no change) Sat night - 42 F Weatherunderground Fri night - 40F Sat night - 40F Scott Titusville, FL 1/2 mile from the Indian River USDA Zone COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alicehunter2000 Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Checking in from the N.W Florida Coast....Panama City expecting 28 overnight.....tommorow it it forcasted to go down to 24........brrr....this is the coldest its been in years here. This is the first real test of my Bizmarkia's and Queens as well as some small R. rivularis in the ground ........at least it is a dry cold. Will post any data as to the survivability of my more marginal stuff. David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a 200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida 30 ft. elevation and sandy soil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tampa Scott Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Clouds and a breeze, and 43.6 this morning ! I can deal with that. Love those clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tank Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 I love clouds as well. Forecast of 27F ended up being 34F. They have been adjusting tonight's forecast as well. 17F is the new 25F. Jason Gainesville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spockvr6 Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Clouds and a breeze, and 43.6 this morning ! I can deal with that. Love those clouds. Yeah! Clouds rock! Although, I would prefer them with a nice NW breeze..... Got me beat this AM.....I dropped to 42.8F at 831AM. Larry Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsn Posted January 16, 2009 Report Share Posted January 16, 2009 Missed it here LOW by a fair margin as well, 46.6F. But bettermissing it low than high! There are so many variables with weather, it is hard to get it RIGHT even 12 hours in advance! just sayin! By the way they had factored in the cloud cover in their forecast, at least for here. Scott Titusville, FL 1/2 mile from the Indian River USDA Zone COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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