Jan 10-14 looks cold in the southeast

[falcon1988]

Hi All,

Here we go again. The best thing to do is keep an eye on the weather and avoid accuweather they love to scare people with this

stuff stay tuned to your local weather station and see what NWS has to say I am staying with Weather channel, NOAA , Wunderground

to me they are more accurate then accuweather. Any how lets pray for this to miss us completely.

Regards

[gsn]

I have seen different models of the cold. Local forecasts call for cold weather but no deep freeze. Accuweather has us near freezing for at least 3 nights, and possibly lower. What do y'all think? I'm planning ahead so I am prepared on this one. Greg in foggy New Port Richey

Here is what I think.

Since the beginning of this thread which started 1/3/2009, this forecast has been all over the place,not just by accuweather,but all the major weather sites,including NWS.

It has been UP and DOWN, the cold weather is going to hit the weekend of the 9th,no it will be the weekend of the 17th, no back to the 9th again, then the 23rd , now it's the 14th.

If after reading this thread , HOW can anyone put any confidence in this forecast?just sayin!

This is the problem with long term forecasts, they CHANGE!

When we get closer to the near term forecast say 24 hours out,my confidence level will increase, but even at 24 hours they have about a 3-5 degree margin of error plus or minus.

12 hours away it gets a little better 2-3 degree margin of error plus or minus. But the only reason the 12 hour is closer(less error),is because they have the actual temp, the dew point(rising/falling), humidity,a better idea of wind direction /speed, cloud cover,ect. at dusk going into the night of the prediction.

Just my 2 cents!

Edited January 11, 2009 by gsn

[falcon1988]

Good point Scott!!!!

[Mutnaum]

Just to let everyone know accuweather's forecasts have no human input at all their just based off each run of the GFS model so don't take them too seriously. Also the latest run of the GFS at noon has Orlando at the lowest 35 degrees so I wouldn't worry that much about a freeze. The trough just isn't in the right position for the arctic air to be pushed down into Florida.

[SunnyFl]

Just to let everyone know accuweather's forecasts have no human input at all their just based off each run of the GFS model so don't take them too seriously. Also the latest run of the GFS at noon has Orlando at the lowest 35 degrees so I wouldn't worry that much about a freeze. The trough just isn't in the right position for the arctic air to be pushed down into Florida.

No human input? Well, that's interesting. No, I don't put much stock in accuweather. They appear to be in for the ratings, as Ray mentioned. Like Matthew in PP, I stick with NOAA and the weather channel (an added bonus for me, I love Ryan Farish), and of course wx-underground.

This morning's forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday was a distinct deterioration from earlier predictions which were for mid-40s those two nights. This morning, for Tampa, it was low 40s and upper 30s, respectively, and 43 & 41 for Lealman. Anyone in the Tampa Bay area with cyrtostachys, bring them in - we'll be hauling ours in for sure

[_Keith]

Just to let everyone know accuweather's forecasts have no human input at all their just based off each run of the GFS model so don't take them too seriously. Also the latest run of the GFS at noon has Orlando at the lowest 35 degrees so I wouldn't worry that much about a freeze. The trough just isn't in the right position for the arctic air to be pushed down into Florida.

No human input? Well, that's interesting. No, I don't put much stock in accuweather. They appear to be in for the ratings, as Ray mentioned. Like Matthew in PP, I stick with NOAA and the weather channel (an added bonus for me, I love Ryan Farish), and of course wx-underground.

This morning's forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday was a distinct deterioration from earlier predictions which were for mid-40s those two nights. This morning, for Tampa, it was low 40s and upper 30s, respectively, and 43 & 41 for Lealman. Anyone in the Tampa Bay area with cyrtostachys, bring them in - we'll be hauling ours in for sure

I have a good friend who is the weatherman for one of the local TV station. He told me the same for weather.com, aka The Weather Channel, that being all computer model generated with no human input.

[_Keith]

Well poop. Low predictions are back to 26 again. Don't you just hate computer models going back and forth.

[SunnyFl]

From the Special Weather Statement, Tampa Bay:

"AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE

RECORD COLD LEVELS FROM SOME WINTERS IN THE PAST...

A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING TUESDAY AND

THEN BE REINFORCED BY A THIRD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SINCE EARLY

DECEMBER WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL

LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE

COAST EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH

THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME SPOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO

AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER

INLAND LOCATIONS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD INTO INTERIOR

PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SHOULD

BE PREPARED TO PROTECT VEGETATION AND PETS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING

TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. PROLONGED

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MAY SEVERELY DAMAGE SENSITIVE

VEGETATION...

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE OR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS UPCOMING COLD SPELL."

hm. not looking so good

[spockvr6]

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SINCE EARLY

DECEMBER WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

If this statement holds true, its shouldnt be that cold at all! Coldest air since early December? It only dropped top 39-40F back then!

Sounds good to me

In any case, we have to expect temps to at least approach freezing once a year or so, as this is in line with short/long term norms. And, for an area that is typically fringe 10a, that can still mean light freezes which dont really kill any "normal" palms anyway.

[gsn]

It appears as though Ray has come out early .....seen his shadow..... and crawled back into his deep burrow for at least six more weeks?

Ray it's going to be okay, really!

I'm with Larry if the lows are expected to be no lower than lows of December, 38F-40F is normal or above winter weather for a few nights, for central Florida in Jan!

[falcon1988]

just checked the weather it seems it won't be that bad 5 days of mid 40's for lows even if that we have to see if that really happens

[SubTropicRay]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr....

Cuba is only a few hours away.

Back to hibernation, strong, strong meds and a glass of Chilean red.

[palmsOrl]

It has been interesting to observe how in the last few years parts of inland south Florida have been forcast to get a frost or freeze (or have actually recieved one) when we in the Orlando area have not. You guys are right, it seems like if they were implying a freeze, they would have said "the coldest air of the season", not merely "the coldest air since early December". My golden malayan coconut is going to be bright yellow by next week. thus far I don't really have any plans to protect tender in ground stuff, they can take this.

[Walter John]

Australia's south-east is set for heat wave conditions today, with temperatures in some areas to top 40 degress Celsius.

Adelaide is forecast to have the hottest day with temperatures to rise to 41C while Melbourne is expected to reach 37C.

Forecasts for Canberra predict temperatures up to 33C and Hobart is expected to reach 31C.

Temperatures are expected to remain high tomorrow.

[SubTropicRay]

The local Fox affiliate just forecasted a 34F for Friday morning. The fact that I'm still looking means there are not enough libations in front of me. This will be colder and will last longer than anything we saw last fall. This more closely resembles the persistent cold of December 2000.

[gsn]

Ray,

How the heck did you get your TV down in that hole?

Friday is a long way away my weather weary friend!

[SubTropicRay]

How the heck did you get your TV down in that hole?

LOL. That's a good one.

Friday is a long way away my weather weary friend!

That's what scares me most. There's more time for that forecast temp to drop.

[SunnyFl]

Friday is a long way away my weather weary friend!

That's what scares me most. There's more time for that forecast temp to drop.

That's the problem - the Friday forecast has deteriorated. And it might get worse as the day approaches. What area was that Fox forecast for? NWS still has Lealman in the 40's for lows all week.

We haven't had much less than 35 since the wicked January of 2003. I'd like to keep it that way. A little cool air is okay, but nothing lower than 35. please. give us zone deniers something to hold on to.

[_Keith]

We are looking at 39 tonight, then 31, 36, 30, 30 for the following 4 nights.

[gsn]

How the heck did you get your TV down in that hole?

LOL. That's a good one.

Friday is a long way away my weather weary friend!

That's what scares me most. There's more time for that forecast temp to drop.

Ray,

The other side of the coin, is it could IMPROVE!

The NWS service forecast for here, did improve today

Tonight - 43F

Wed night - 40F

Thur night - 40F

Fri night - 42F

It's anyones GUESS what it will ACTUALLY end up being Thursday night, Friday morning?

Edited January 13, 2009 by gsn

[FRITO]

the forcast for Tallahassee is scary looking.

I dont see how the forcast itsnt colder for central florida with the cold in the north.

30 tonight with freezes forcasted for 5 days out. thurdays and froday at 17 degrees per NOAA and ACCUWEATHER. Weather.com has thursday at 24......

maybe they just want ratings to say floridas capital was in the teens? I am currently in south florida and wont be able to protect anything very well. my brother has brought a few pots in and threw a few sheets on some stuff.

hopefully this forcast falls apart.

[spockvr6]

How the heck did you get your TV down in that hole?

LOL. That's a good one.

Friday is a long way away my weather weary friend!

That's what scares me most. There's more time for that forecast temp to drop.

Ray,

The other side of the coin, is it could IMPROVE!

The NWS service forecast for here, did improve today

Tonight - 43F

Wed night - 40F

Thur night - 40F

Fri night - 42F

It's anyones GUESS what it will ACTUALLY end up being Thursday night, Friday morning?

Scott-

NWS is showing the same types of number here as well (low 40's), but other sites are showing upto 5F colder. I guess we shall see!

[gsn]

Larry,

I can live with 35F-36F if the NWS is 5 degrees high, I would prefer NOT too, but better than 32F or lower!

But as you stated we shall see Thursday and Friday morning, we won't REALLY know until then?

Edited January 13, 2009 by gsn

[_Keith]

We have 3 of the next 7 nights predicted to be at 30 degrees and two at 33 degrees. And that is the computer prediction of weather.com (no people). The local weathermen (I got people :-)) are saying more upper 20s.

[SubTropicRay]

The NAM GFS model is forecasting 41F for Tampa Saturday morning. This must be where the Weather Channel and Intellicast are getting their forecast. I hope the other shoe doesn't eventually drop on this somewhat unbelieveable forecast.

The MAV GFS model has 31F for Saturday morning. This is the model on which local media outlets appear to be basing their low temps. The discrepancy in the models alone is a bit troubling. That tells me they really have no idea how cold this air mass really is or how far south it will come.

Historically, these types of fronts come in 2's, often a week apart. There is always a warning shot and then the mother load. I hope this is the mother load and not a sign of what's to come.

[Derekjp]

From what short time I've been in Florida, I've learned one thing about the weather forecasts down here... It's very hard to project anything more than a couple of days out. And even then I've seen them flat out miss it pretty bad 3 days in a row. I've been paying attention to all the weather forecasts, and it seems baynews9 and weather.com have the best forecast, but it's still nothing to brag about. I've got a feeling I don't think it will be too bad here where I'm at. If I had to guess, I would say mid 30s in Tampa area east of the bay, upper 30s to low 40s in Pinellas.

Edited January 14, 2009 by Derekjp

[gsn]

The MAV GFS model has 31F for Saturday morning. This is the model on which local media outlets appear to be basing their low temps. The discrepancy in the models alone is a bit troubling. That tells me they really have no idea how cold this air mass really is or how far south it will come.

Ray,

The local media, ie, local weathermen love to HYPE and base forecasts on the worst possible case scenario(ratings)!

I mean after all they only have 3 months here in central Florida to talk about Freezes/Frost, and maybe could it be, possible SNOW flurries!

The other 9 months they are stuck with same old thing, it's going to be warm/hot, humid, chance of afternoon thunderstorms,sea breeze....yawn!!!

Unless they get a tropical storm/hurricane then all bets are off!

Unfortunately CHATTER is ramping UP!!!

Edited January 14, 2009 by gsn

[popper1]

It is pretty interesting the range of temps that are out there for the next few days in Florida. For Tampa I have seen the ultimate low temp occurring on either Thursday or Friday night and being anywhere from 28 to 40. The Weather Channel, at least for the moment, seems to think that the cold outbreak will not be as severe in central & south FL as many others are saying. And, as Scott says, the local forecasters LOVE to make it a big deal and project the coldest temps.

[surgeon83]

This is driving me nuts. Weather underground is predicting a night of 32 followed by a night of 29 for Tampa and MacDill whereas Orlando is not supposed to be much below 40! Then why the )($% do I live so close to the water I have to pay flood insurance!?!?

Ray, do you have any more of those meds that are IV form, because I need something to kick in FAST!

[Mutnaum]

This is driving me nuts. Weather underground is predicting a night of 32 followed by a night of 29 for Tampa and MacDill whereas Orlando is not supposed to be much below 40! Then why the )($% do I live so close to the water I have to pay flood insurance!?!?

Ray, do you have any more of those meds that are IV form, because I need something to kick in FAST!

Wunderground forecasts are based of the NWS Zone forecasts so that means the NWS office in Tampa Bay/Ruskin thinks the arctic intrusion will be more significant than the NWS office in Melbourne does which has jurisdiction over the Orlando area.

[SubTropicRay]

Brian, my wX underground (33629) zip has 36 Friday and then 34 Saturday. The 20's, thankfully have yet to appear for the metro area but hey, we are still 3 days away.

Popper, I'm amazed at how warm Weather Channel continues to forecast this coming cold event. The one bright spot is they are right more than any other media outlet. I still think they are basing that on the warmer of the 2 GFS short range models. If that one tanks, so will the Weather Channel forecast. Surely this huge discrepancy can't continue much longer. Sooner than later, the models have to converge on the warmer or colder solution.

I hope you are right about the hype Scott. Either way, I'll have to spend 5-6 hours preparing the garden tomorow and Thursday in case it's as bad or worse than they say.

Derek, don't be fooled by the StP/Clw airport temps or that of Albert Whitted airport downtown. They are not representative of the entire area. My car thermometer rises very little if at all on my drive from south Tampa to my job off Tyrone Blvd and 66th Street. When I have frost at home, the houses along St Pete's 22nd Ave north have frost too.

The south Florida guys are laughing at all of us right now.

[Derekjp]

Derek, don't be fooled by the StP/Clw airport temps or that of Albert Whitted airport downtown. They are not representative of the entire area. My car thermometer rises very little if at all on my drive from south Tampa to my job off Tyrone Blvd and 66th Street. When I have frost at home, the houses along St Pete's 22nd Ave north have frost too.

Ray, your profile says you live in the interbay/south Tampa area. From what I have observed temperature wise on weather underground and also from what I have seen growing there, I would say you're virtually the same climate as anywhere in mid Pinellas south with the exception of areas in very close proximity to the water. I just have feeling that it won't be that bad. Stay positive!

Edited January 14, 2009 by Derekjp

[SunnyFl]

Looking scary.....

Now the freeze warning extends into Hillsborough County, and NWS says "it appears that the coldest temperatures will be east of the I-75 corridor." It appears that. So they've left open the possibility that it could get worse.

In Lealman, the forecast for Friday's low has dropped from 40 to 34, according to NWS.

And - this is new - they're warning us to check home heating systems and wrap the pipes. Does not look good for Tampa Bay.

Edited to add that the graph is for Lealman, starting Thursday 12 AM.

Edited January 14, 2009 by SunnyFl

[SunnyFl]

Here's another, this one for Tampa, starting Thursday, 12 AM:

[spockvr6]

In Lealman, the forecast for Friday's low has dropped from 40 to 34, according to NWS.

Pretty much the same up here Sunny......looks like all the forecasts are focusing in on 34-38F depending on source.

Which, in reality, isnt too bad. Ill be more than thrilled if thats the coldest we get this winter!

Edited January 14, 2009 by spockvr6

[Ed in Houston]

A cold morning in SE Texas today. Freezing temps around the Houston area with the Metro area

and SE to the bay/coast above freezing. It was 33 at my place in the Clear Lake area of SE Houston.

Lots of upper 20's once you got about 15-20 miles from downtown except SE.

Ed in Houston

[gsn]

What is up with east coast, west coast differential?

NWS

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 39 F

Sat night - 40 F

Weather.com

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 38 F

Sat night - 41 F

Accuweather

Tonight - 41 F

Thurs night - 42 F

Fri night - 40 F

Sat night - 42 F

They are ALL pretty much in line.

Here is the troublesome part, last night our low was forecast at 45F as late as 12:00 AM by the NWS.

The actual offical low was 41F they missed it high by 4 degrees only 12 hours before the low temp was recorded???

Edited January 14, 2009 by gsn

[spockvr6]

What is up with east coast, west coast differential?

Must be wind direction....maybe you guys will luck out and the winds will have a good easterly component. Good for you...bad for us!

Here is the troublesome part, last night our low was forecast at 45F as late as 12:00 AM by the NWS.

The actual offical low was 41F they missed it high by 4 degrees only 12 hours before the low temp was recorded???

Better they miss the low by being too high this AM than any of the next few mornings!

[spockvr6]

What is up with east coast, west coast differential?

NWS

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 39 F

Sat night - 40 F

Weather.com

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 38 F

Sat night - 41 F

Accuweather

Tonight - 41 F

Thurs night - 42 F

Fri night - 40 F

Sat night - 42 F

For posterity (so we can look back and either mock, or revel in these forecasts), here is what the same sources (plus weatherunderground) show for 34689 (Tarpon Springs).

NWS

Tonight - 42 F

Thurs night - 41 F

Fri night - 37 F

Sat night - 43 F

Weather.com

Tonight - 41 F

Thurs night - 34 F

Fri night - 36 F

Sat night - 43 F

Accuweather

Tonight - 45 F

Thurs night - 35 F

Fri night - 38 F

Sat night - 42 F

Weatherunderground

Tonight - 40 F

Thurs night - 38 F

Fri night - 34 F

Sat night - 41 F

They got the low pretty close this AM. I logged 45.4F.

[gsn]

What is up with east coast, west coast differential?

Must be wind direction....maybe you guys will luck out and the winds will have a good easterly component. Good for you...bad for us!

Larry that doesn't seem to be the case unfortunately, they are predicting north /northwest winds through Saturday?

Maybe our guys are just sleepin?