Californians: Heads Up on Possible Arctic Airmass

[MattyB]

I hit 48F at the top of the hill so I know it was about 38F-40F in the canyon. Very crisp, clear and cold. RH was around 16% all night. Crackle, crackle.

[osideterry]

39.4F in my yard. Lowest reading yet this season.

Bill - the airport always seems to be about 4F colder than you and 2F colder than me.

[nachocarl]

This is a great thread; I too have been reading this one daily. If I remember correctly we had early warning of the 07 freeze, and it had been VERY mild, even warmer than normal leading up to that. I saw a lot of new growth get flamed by that stupidly cold weather! It put me off of tender species for awhile, but I’m back in the game baby!

This morning here in Vista we hit 44.7 around 6 am. I have moved my thermometer to a more exposed location of the yard to see what happens over the next few days. When we flirt with the mid thirties I have a few items I like to bring in (nepenthes) any lower then I have to start looking at other stuff.

Stay tuned.

[osideterry]

Here's today's US western weather blog from Accuweather. Not as dire as the Ontario one, but we still have to watch this one.

http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-s...gion=westusnews

A quote:

Expert Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler expects temperatures to dip considerably in central and Southern California, but the setup from this weekend into the middle of next week is not expected to bring freezing temperatures to growing areas. He expects too much cloud cover and disruptive winds, rather than clear skies and light winds that would allow a frost or freeze.

[Hollywood Palms]

48° was my low this morning. RH 31. Wind was starting by 8. Hotspots on the lanai by 9.

I want rain, but nothing below 45°. I can hope....

David

[happ]

The "change" is on-course for this weekend w/ a modified arctic surge moving in, however the really cold night temps may not occur [at least into mid-week 12-18-08]. Here's an excerpt from NWS-Sacramento:

"...WOULD KEEP A 120KT JET OVER CENTRAL

CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND NOT PROGRESS THE LOW

SOUTH INTO SOCAL (CUTTING OFF THE PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN

CALIFORNIA) BY WEDNESDAY. AND IF THAT ISN`T ENOUGH...THE GEM...A FEW

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PSD ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE HINTING AT AN

EVENT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL JET

UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A WARMER AND EVEN WETTER PERIOD OF

WEATHER. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE MODELS VERY CLOSELY TO SEE IF THEY

CONVERGE ON THE WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."

[epicure3]

Checking the NWS today shows that it will be abnormally cool, but there is no talk of any freeze at all. Good news.

[happ]

Checking the NWS today shows that it will be abnormally cool, but there is no talk of any freeze at all. Good news.

The trend toward warmer nights is definitely encouraging but I don't want to jinx it by wishful thinking. It should be noted that the same models that indicated near-freezing minimums are now forecasting 40's

Edited December 11, 2008 by happ

[PalmGuyWC]

The front hasn't even reached N. Calif. yet, but the last 3 nights the temps have fallen to low 30's, but fog forms around 4 to 5 AM and the temp. rises to upper 30's. The one morning the fog did not form, we had a white frost. Actually, this is about normal or above normal for N. Calif. for this time of the year. My bannas are still green. We sure could use some rain. Supposed to hit 68F today.

Dick

[arashi]

Hi

anyone's growing palm trees in Seattle? I've heard about strong freeze for next week, about 5°F

[Big Tex]

The good news\ bad news of what's coming We need the rain desperately & cold storms supply the snowpack. But temps will get awfully chilly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...10day/index.php

I feel bad for you guys on the west coast but seeing that Texas is going to warm up makes my tropicals very happy.

[joe_OC]

Accuweather has changed the forecast for me...Earlier in the week, they had forecast some nights in the high 20's, but now they say high 30's through X-mas.

[freakypalmguy]

They are calling for snow at my place on Monday. This is not looking good.

[PalmGuyWC]

Clear skys this morning in Walnut Creek and the mercury has hung at 45F for the past few hours. We only got a trace of rain last night. Snow level in the Bay Area is forcast down to 1500 feet the middle of next week.

I think we all panic to much about the weather now because we have so many sources of WX information. I can remember times when I didn't pay much attention to weather forcast, and the palms somehow survived. For the real tender stuff, throw a sheet over them and pray, or bring them inside.

Dick

[happ]

I am uneasy about several things later in the week. But until then it appears we will experience periods of rain starting Sunday & low snow levels [3000-4000'] into mid-week. Maximums in 50's\ minimums: 40's. Cold & wet make for unhappy palms

My concern is that next week is forecast to be extremely cold in the PacificNW [perhaps below freezing max's in Seattle\ Portland all week]. That arctic air is only 1000 miles away. Also, some models are showing a 'santa ana' setting up for late in the week. All that sub-freezing air funneling into California would be hard to warm up. Of-course, these are worst case scenarios.

Good news is the copious rain & snow in precious watershed.

[doubravsky]

Just got scared! i Checked weather.com and it called for 24f on Wednesday night! Fortunately, before I crapped my pants I checked accuweather and weather underground and they both called it 34f...

When is spring??????

[happ]

Just got scared! i Checked weather.com and it called for 24f on Wednesday night! Fortunately, before I crapped my pants I checked accuweather and weather underground and they both called it 34f...

When is spring??????

Dave

NWS is calling for minimums in low-mid 40's for the entire week in Riverside. So there's another forecast to factor in. Good luck.

[Shon]

Yeah same thing,last week Weather.com had me way higher than Accuweather. Now this week it's the oppisite. I'm with Dick I'm not going to do this all winter long.

[Hollywood Palms]

44°F low here this morning. At 6:00 A.M., was up to 46°F, but still 44°F in Beverly Hills. Winds picking up.

David

[PalmGuyWC]

Happ,

What's going on with the weather? It seems very "confussed" in N. Calif. We got no mesuarable precip so far, and it was 34F this morning with a white frost on the cars and roof tops. At daylight some thin high clouds moved in and it warmed up to 38 F. It looks like very chilly temps up here for the next week with a low of 26F forcast for next Wed night. It looks like the jet stream is pumping the cold air right down the the Calif. coast line.

Dick

[CromulentKevin]

Since a lot of people are talking about the inaccuracy of major weather sites. . .I just wanted to suggest to people in socal to check out weathercurrents.com. It is actual local weather. So it generally is far more accurate than weather.com, accuweather, etc. They even explain where the weather station is located in the FAQ for each city. For example, the one in temecula is right near my place, so I know I can trust that it is applicable to my actual yard. They even keep historical data for every day for as long as the weather station in your area has been operational, which is very interesting if you're a data nerd like myself. It really is a great site. Unfortunately, right now they are mainly limited to cities in inland riverside county, but they continue to expand and add more locations. Also, I'm sure similar sites must exist in various parts of the country, so do some googling and see!

[doubravsky]

I hit 32 last night... frost on the car hood.....

[freakypalmguy]

Since a lot of people are talking about the inaccuracy of major weather sites. . .I just wanted to suggest to people in socal to check out weathercurrents.com. It is actual local weather. So it generally is far more accurate than weather.com, accuweather, etc. They even explain where the weather station is located in the FAQ for each city. For example, the one in temecula is right near my place, so I know I can trust that it is applicable to my actual yard. They even keep historical data for every day for as long as the weather station in your area has been operational, which is very interesting if you're a data nerd like myself. It really is a great site. Unfortunately, right now they are mainly limited to cities in inland riverside county, but they continue to expand and add more locations. Also, I'm sure similar sites must exist in various parts of the country, so do some googling and see!

Hey Kevin, haven't seen you on here for a while. Whatcha been up to? How's the hot dog biz

Thanks for the tip, I'm going to go check it out right now.

Matt

[freakypalmguy]

I hit 32 last night... frost on the car hood.....

Same here in Temecula Dave. Frost on the lawn and cars.

I went and bought a truck full of mulch yesterday to try and protect some of the smaller stuff. It was amazing to watch the steam pouring out of the pile once it was disturbed by the tractor. When I got it home, I dug in to it with a shovel and more steam came out. Pretty cool.

Matt

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Obviously I don't want to bum anyone out over this possible scenario & we all know that there is nothing we can do to stop 'mother nature'

I could keep this forecast quiet & wait and see or let you know that for the first time this late autumn the models are showing a significant change in the weather. There already has been colder than normal temps in the eastern half of the nation w/ freezing temps down into Texas. A configuration of the polar jet stream funneling cold air into the West is now at issue. We all know from experience what can happen at our latitude if a continental air mass moves over California. The models continue to advertise a significant cold invasion around the 15th but if the low pressure system moves in off the Pacific then it will, of-course be much milder. And the models are trending the system westward out over the ocean. It may be nothing more than a cold storm with relatively low snow levels & chilly nights.

In the meantime next week could get rather warm w/ 'santa ana' conditions before all hell breaks lose

Looks like only mid-upper 40's tonight, Happ (under 3500 ft.) so all SHOULD be OK, hopefully!

I'll be watching & hoping the best weather outcomes for you guys!

All the best, Happ!

Paul

[happ]

Obviously I don't want to bum anyone out over this possible scenario & we all know that there is nothing we can do to stop 'mother nature'

I could keep this forecast quiet & wait and see or let you know that for the first time this late autumn the models are showing a significant change in the weather. There already has been colder than normal temps in the eastern half of the nation w/ freezing temps down into Texas. A configuration of the polar jet stream funneling cold air into the West is now at issue. We all know from experience what can happen at our latitude if a continental air mass moves over California. The models continue to advertise a significant cold invasion around the 15th but if the low pressure system moves in off the Pacific then it will, of-course be much milder. And the models are trending the system westward out over the ocean. It may be nothing more than a cold storm with relatively low snow levels & chilly nights.

In the meantime next week could get rather warm w/ 'santa ana' conditions before all hell breaks lose

Looks like only mid-upper 40's tonight, Happ (under 3500 ft.) so all SHOULD be OK, hopefully!

I'll be watching & hoping the best weather outcomes for you guys!

All the best, Happ!

Paul

Hola Pablito

Thanks for the greeting from warm So Florida [best winters in the U.S.

The cold front swept though California last night. Where is was cloudy\ San Diego Co or windy it stayed in 40\ 50's but inland under clear dry air the temp hit freezing in various cold pockets [Woodland Hills\ Temecula\ Riverside]. If you ever experience frost than you know your zone & should take precautions. Today is sunny but barely 60F\ 15.5C & the cold air keeps coming Best snow conditions in many years will occur this week & elevations as low as 3500' could see some white stuff.

But the concern, of-course, is the temperature. The fact that this polar air has been accompanied by clouds is a good thing. But the cold & at times rainy days stress sensitive palms & yellowing isn't far away. Slightly warmer toward the end of the week but still below normal temps.

Minimum: 46F\ 7.7C [coldest reading since February

[happ]

Happ,

What's going on with the weather? It seems very "confussed" in N. Calif. We got no mesuarable precip so far, and it was 34F this morning with a white frost on the cars and roof tops. At daylight some thin high clouds moved in and it warmed up to 38 F. It looks like very chilly temps up here for the next week with a low of 26F forcast for next Wed night. It looks like the jet stream is pumping the cold air right down the the Calif. coast line.

Dick

Dick

As you know, if it is cold in SoCal it is even colder in NorCal. Similar conditions up & down the state this week w/ cold storms & minimums in the 30's inland from San Francisco Bay. And rainy periods are followed by foggy conditions in the Bay Area\ Central Valley. Sustained cold into Christmas, I'm afraid.

[osideterry]

Looking at Accuweather, Weatherdotcom and Weatherunderground, I'm most concerned about the cold mornings after the rain has passed. Thursday and Friday mornings particularly look rough, with my forecast lows in the 33-35F range.

[CromulentKevin]

I hit 32 last night... frost on the car hood.....

Same here in Temecula Dave. Frost on the lawn and cars.

I went and bought a truck full of mulch yesterday to try and protect some of the smaller stuff. It was amazing to watch the steam pouring out of the pile once it was disturbed by the tractor. When I got it home, I dug in to it with a shovel and more steam came out. Pretty cool.

Matt

Hey again. I still am interested in coming out to check out your place. In case there is a horrible cold event, I might as well do it soon (not to jinx things). I've been out of commission for the last couple of months, I'll explain in person as to why, but that's what you haven't heard from me. Give me a call when you have some free time and want to show me around!

BTW, I don't think it hit 32 here this morning. . .I think I was around 35 or so. . .but I can't be sure. . .my theory is it really doesn't matter if it hits 32 for an hour or two anyway. . .I think it is the sustained cold that gets things. . .I haven't bothered to protect anything yet. . .hopefully I won't have to. . .it's such a pain. . .crossing my fingers things don't get too bad, so I don't have to replant half my stuff like in 2007!

[MattyB]

I hit 48 this morning, but it's 9:00pm now on Sunday and I'm already at 48 for tonight. So we'll see what happens by morn.

[MattyB]

I ended up at 45F.

[happ]

WITH 527DM THICKNESS! OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING ANY AREAS THAT ARE CLOUD FREE AND WIND FREE WILL SEE VERY LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HARD FREEZES ACROSS ALL THE VALLEYS AND EVEN THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOME COASTAL SECTIONS. - NWS-LA 12-15-08

This is serious! But what's puzzling is projected temps are above freezing for all areas except Temecula. The National Weather Service has been under-estimating the cold potential thus far so precautions for everyone is wise. The next system will be colder & appears to be more over land than sea w/ less cloud cover. Be careful out there.

It is already 10AM & the temp is only 50.5F\ 10.7C. Very rainy overnight with 1.68" [great for the greening hillsides].

Lo: 47F\ 8.3

Edited December 15, 2008 by happ

[freakypalmguy]

But what's puzzling is projected temps are above freezing for all areas except Temecula.

Well that's not fair

[MattyB]

Monday 1:00pm. Here at work in Lemon Grove it's 52F. That'll be the high for today. We've got .6" of rain so far.

[PalmGuyWC]

The weather system that is passing over N. Calif. has been very weird and diffused. Scattered rain showers from build ups all night, off and on, not a clear cut front. Still some puffy clouds and a slight chance of TS. Rain this morning and 42F, so I"m sure Mt. Diablo has snow on it, but it's still covered with clouds. The forcast for Wed night is from 22 to 34 depending on which WX report one uses. I'll take 34F, thank you. The next system sounds onimious. High today around 50F.

Dick

[CromulentKevin]

Right now is around 50-52 degrees and raining super heavy. . .local weather station says there has already been over 2 inches of rain today and it's only 1:30pm! Most of my yard is flooded out with freezing rain, which I hear tropicalesque plants just love And to add insult to injury, my roof decided to spring a leak in my living room. Hurray drywall damage and roofers being so booked it'll probably take a month before it can be repaired! And I'm sure it'll be cheap and they won't gouge me at all. What an irritating day.

[freakypalmguy]

Right now is around 50-52 degrees and raining super heavy. . .local weather station says there has already been over 2 inches of rain today and it's only 1:30pm! Most of my yard is flooded out with freezing rain, which I hear tropicalesque plants just love And to add insult to injury, my roof decided to spring a leak in my living room. Hurray drywall damage and roofers being so booked it'll probably take a month before it can be repaired! And I'm sure it'll be cheap and they won't gouge me at all. What an irritating day.

Hey Kev, take a phillips head screw driver and poke a hole in the drywall where your roof is leaking and put a bucket under it. That will keep the water from collecting. Many times you can save the the sheet rock this way. If the water sits, it will saturate it then eventually cause it to sag or worse case, fall. At that point, no saving it.

My gauge says 2+ inches at my place. It has been steadily raining since early this morn. My max temp was 52.3F at 1:39

When things dry a bit come on over and I'll show you how fast my weeds grow after a rain

Matt

[CromulentKevin]

Right now is around 50-52 degrees and raining super heavy. . .local weather station says there has already been over 2 inches of rain today and it's only 1:30pm! Most of my yard is flooded out with freezing rain, which I hear tropicalesque plants just love And to add insult to injury, my roof decided to spring a leak in my living room. Hurray drywall damage and roofers being so booked it'll probably take a month before it can be repaired! And I'm sure it'll be cheap and they won't gouge me at all. What an irritating day.

Hey Kev, take a phillips head screw driver and poke a hole in the drywall where your roof is leaking and put a bucket under it. That will keep the water from collecting. Many times you can save the the sheet rock this way. If the water sits, it will saturate it then eventually cause it to sag or worse case, fall. At that point, no saving it.

My gauge says 2+ inches at my place. It has been steadily raining since early this morn. My max temp was 52.3F at 1:39

When things dry a bit come on over and I'll show you how fast my weeds grow after a rain

Matt

I'm not sure I'd know exactly where to poke. I have a roof company coming supposedly coming over tomorrow for an inspection, so hopefully they can do some kind of temporary patch or something to prevent too much damage until they can schedule it to be fixed for real. It's not a super huge area of drywall that is soaked so far. It's maybe about 3 feet long, but it's only about 3 inches wide. Extremely symmetrical too, not irregular like one would expect. The water is definitely following a linear path. But I can't imagine this would be heavy enough to cause major sagging or any drywall falling (so long as it doesn't keep growing in size that is). Of course, there's always that whole hidden rot/mildew business. . .I guess if I wanted to be safe I'd make holes and put a fan through there. . .but not sure I will if it seems that primer/paint could cure it aesthetically. . .anyway, in summation houses are such a pain in the ass!

BTW, I guarantee a bunch of my neighbors will have their automatic sprinklers come on tomorrow morning. Can someone explain to me why people water their lawns in the middle of a huge storm?

[happ]

Freeze Watch for San Joaquin Valley http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...=freeze%20watch

[Jim in Los Altos]

So far lots of rain and a few big rumbles of thunder last night and today. The high made it briefly to 54F today and, luckily so far, none of the major forecasters are predicting freezing temps for me. I have to drive over the summit to Santa Cruz tomorrow and there may be snow and ice on Hwy 17 at the summit.