Ok.......Fay

[epicure3]

I don't hear any buzz about the next TS, maybe hurricane, heading to the Keys and SW Florida. Anybody getting prepared for this?

[_Keith]

When a hurricane enters the gulf, we are all paying attention.

There was another thread on this a few days back, but not a lot of activity in it.

This is where I turn my attention. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...el.html#a_topad

Once one falls in the 5 day cone, things escalate to Defcon 3.

[PalmatierMeg]

Deja vu all over again. Fay's path mirrors Hurricane Charley's from 4 years ago but is predicted to be "only" a Cat 1. Of course, Charley was to be only a Cat 2 and hit Tampa, except it blew up to a 4 in about 90 minutes, then turned right over poor Punta Gorda (100 miles south) 20 minutes before landfall. Right now Cape Coral is slap dab in the middle of the Fay's cone of destruction.

We got home from visiting our son in suburban Maryland at 3 p.m today. Fortunately, we had closed all our shutters but one before leaving. We dashed out for gas for our generator (stations already running out of petrol), then trekked to the store for a few groceries (bottled water, milk, bread, toilet paper flying off shelves). Some retired guy asked why so many people were shopping on Sunday and was astounded to hear of an imminent hurricane ("I don't follow the news," he says. Is this a possible example of thinning the herd?)

We started sheltering potted palms, succulents, seedlings, garden statuary but were shut down by thunderstorms (early rainbands?). Will have to finish tomorrow. All indications are that Monday night/Tuesday morn could get ugly.

4-5 ft. storm surge Tues as storm passes (SW FL will be on stronger right side). We are on freshwater canal far enough from salt water so we shouldn't be affected by surge but should get wind and rain. I work on an island wildlife preserve, reachable by a two-land road that crosses Matlacha Island, which is only 100-150 yds wide at points and a couple of feet above sea level. I foresee flooding in the quirky fishing village of Matlacha, so my office might be inaccessible by sometime Monday. Fort Myers Beach looks set for flooding - we give thanks that our 2 weeks at the timeshare ended Aug 9.

Further south in Collier County (Naples, Marco Island, Everglades City) people may be told to evacuate areas near the Gulf.

Otherwise, we monitor Weather Channel & local stations every couple hours. Hurricane Charley reminds us, never drop our guard.

[Jeff Searle]

You can bet your sweet ass I'm watching it. Been through too many of these in my "middle age" life so far. I feel pretty confident that it will not impact us where I'm at. Maybe alot of rain starting late monday and into tuesday. I hope I'm right.

Jeff

[ariscott]

Good luck everyone... I know exactly what you are feeling at the moment. I hope the eye miss you and it stays cat 1 - so minimal damage.

Regards, Ari

[_Keith]

Models are now shifting to the west. Two taking it in a Tampa and one slightly south, but 3 taking it in around Pensacola. You never know with these babies. Even in Louisiana, we are on alert.

[epicure3]

Models are now shifting to the west. Two taking it in a Tampa and one slightly south, but 3 taking it in around Pensacola. You never know with these babies. Even in Louisiana, we are on alert.

Well, the longer it stays over that tepid gulf, the stronger it becomes...unless it can get sheared apart....which would be nice.

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

The good news is that the storm is still disorganized leaving the coast of Cuba, so it will take it some time to work up to a Cat 1

Even this morning it is too early to know exactly where Fay will go....the track yesterday was forecast to smack the island, then it shifted to the west further out into the Gulf, and this morning it's back to the east close to the island........Hurricane Charlie showed use that these forecasts are good for windage mainly, but thats good enough for me right now so I am hoping for the best and prepared for the worst.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed anyway......

Rusty

[Mike4284m]

Keith - Where on Weather Underground did you find that display? Interesting.

[Ken Johnson]

Comming of Cuban coast stronger already, even before its over water. Some shear now but I am betting on a middle Keys hit by strong Cat 1 and Ft Meyres near a 2!

[Mike4284m]

Well I'm off to school. I'm thinking Nova is going to regret not calling classes off today like the rest of the Broward and Miami-Dade schools. Things aren't bad here right now in Davie with some moments of light rainfall passing through and zero noticeable winds. We must have gotten some good rain last night though because the pond out back it definitely showing it.

[TikiRick]

Well here we are on the SE coast of FL (Ft. Lauderdale) and it looks like midnight outdoors....thunder, some wind, and some heavy rains now. It is now 8:42am.

[bubba]

The satelite Blobs are all moving East towards the Bahamas.Overcast here but no wind,rain or giant tornadoes/waterspouts.How did people live before the Weather Channel?

[TikiRick]

The satelite Blobs are all moving East towards the Bahamas.Overcast here but no wind,rain or giant tornadoes/waterspouts.How did people live before the Weather Channel?

I think it was word of mouth....kinda like that telephone game we all played as school kids. By the time it got to the last guy it was totally different from what it started as!

[SubTropicRay]

Here's a great local link.

local Fox station hurricane coverage

[tank]

Another good site for tropical weather info:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

My favorite "historical" hurricane info site:

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Storm pulse has a bunch of functions and cool stuff you won't immediately notice, so take a little time to figure it out. The imagery on some of the most recent storms is great. Someone put alot of time into this site.

You can compare Fay to Charley:

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-charley-2004

Don't forget to turn on the "clouds" in the upper right dialog.

[tank]

I hope the current track changes because the 8:00 track looks like it will do a direct hit on my family's house on Little Gasparilla Island. I guess I might get a chance to see how some of the stuff I planted holds up to a salt water bath. Waves usually crest the dunes at tropical storm strength or greater.

Post of the stuff I planted on the island:

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...c=11380&hl=

[_Keith]

I hope the current track changes because the 8:00 track looks like it will do a direct hit on my family's house on Little Gasparilla Island. I guess I might get a chance to see how some of the stuff I planted holds up to a salt water bath. Waves usually crest the dunes at tropical storm strength or greater.

Post of the stuff I planted on the island:

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...c=11380&hl=

Looks like all of the models are converging.

[FRITO]

always interesting tracking these things. does have some similarites with Charlie.

My grandpa got hit by Charlie in Punta Gorda power was out for more than a week where he was at. took down his largest washingtonia and leaned a few queens palms.

the track last night had in comming to the forgotten coast in the panhandle just SW of here...looks like those forcasts are off now.

[Jeff Searle]

It's been raining all morning here, some heavy at times. I probably got a good 1" so far. It's 11:30 am. But no wind as of yet.

Jeff

[PalmatierMeg]

Here at the wildlife preserve on Little Pine Island we've had no more rain yet, just cloudy sky & light winds, although winds picking up from south. Unsettling. Cone of destruction still centered close by. Fay is in the Florida Straits now. No local evacs yet that I know of, but I expect some for barrier islands. Fay still expected to grow to Cat 1.

Rusty on Pine Island, all my best. Hope your fabulous palm garden comes through okay. Keep us apprised.

[bubba]

Those are all outstanding links for real information.The National Hurricane Center stuff seems to keep getting shiftier and more oblique.I hope this thing ends up as a tempest in a teapot.

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

Thank You, Meg, and good luck to you as well!

Bubba, I'm hoping for the tempest in the teapot scenario, too

....I plan to stay on the island, but not at Jackass Flatts if things get interesting...I have friends who have a house designed for a Cat 5, high enough should any surge come in.

As for the plants and the nursery, i plan to take a quick walk through this evening to enjoy it while it lasts, and hope for the best!!!!!!

Rusty

[palmislandRandy]

Off and on rain at noon, no wind yet. Seems like were out of the cone of destruction. I hope I don't get to try out my new hurricane shutters. Good luck to you all on Flas. west coast

[TikiRick]

Well, I am optimistic about Fay. I may eat my words, but I don't think it will amount to much destruction, or any at all. Some wind, heavy rains, and what I DO HOPE FOR is the forecast track that takes it right up to Western NC where the rain is desparately needed.

[SubTropicRay]

The track is very Charley-ish but without the Cat 4 intensity.

[PalmatierMeg]

Milky sunshine alternating with rain spritzes, ominous dark clouds to the southeast. Potted plants and lawn critters stashed inside garage & family room. All shutters down. My boss & I took off about 1 p.m., won't be in tomorrow because of high winds & storm surge. The office has survived Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Wilma, probably will weather Fay.

[surgeon83]

All the potted palms, patio furniture, and sailboat are in the garage. I get to go to work tomorrow! The 8-minute walk to my car and drive home should be interesting if we get the 65mph winds they are talking about for the time I get off work

Nobody else here seems to be doing anything to prepare.

[Palm Guy]

My prayers are with you all. Hopefully, Fay doesn't bring too much damage and no lives are lost.

Palm Note: don't forget to spray your palms with fungicides after the storm. My palms are showing signs of fungus after Bertha so spray them a day or so after as a preventative measure.

Good luck to you all!

[Ken Johnson]

Looks like Fay will hit coast as Tropical Storm. Should hit around Naples.

Gusty and rainy here as the storm passes to the west. No palms down. (yet)

[JD in the OC]

tons of sideways rain here in ft. myers. winds are bearable so far...

[_Keith]

I was listening to the national news and a quote from a local Florida weatherman went like this "It is not much fun around here when coconuts start flying through the air"

[Palmarum]

12:29 AM, on Monday evening Fay is hitting Broward pretty good right now, power is going in and out. I see the familiar blue flash of crossing power lines in the distance...

Ryan

[Dave-Vero]

Big Pine Key had a tornado warning at the height of the storm, but the Miami Herald report indicates no damage. I assume the Key West Tropical Forest and Botanical Garden did OK.

To judge from the wind probability maps, we to the south of Cape Canaveral may get the strongest winds on the east. Even though they're almost certainly not needed, I put up some of the shutters anyway. Would be nice if my estate had a quick-deploy Heliconia cage.

[waykoolplantz]

5:45 am.....been some wind overnite but mostly rain 4.25 inches since this time yesterday.

Will check for wind damage when the sun comes up

[Exotic Life]

I hope for you people, Fay will bring not too much damage ... When the tropical storms are born i'm following them continue on the cards.

Robbin

[ZoneTenNut]

I've logged 7" of rain since about 4:00pm yesterday. Some of the heaviest squalls hit this area around 2:30am with torrential downpours and tornadoes in the vicinity. Sat on the patio in the dark for awhile and could see the flash of powerlines or transformers in the distance. My power went out a couple times, but came right back on, so guess I was lucky because they have been reporting a lot of folks out in Palm Beach County. The wind hasn't been too bad here really. Now that I have daylight I've looked around and don't see much in the way of leaf litter or branches, mostly flooding and ponding. So for now, has mostly been a rain event for me, but there is apparently still quite a bit more to go through, so hoping for the best. This is definitely a drough buster and we needed it in the worst way, so Fay has been kind to us in that regard.

Roger

[Ken Johnson]

This dang storm is wierd. It came ashore and THEN formed an eye! Thing may double back too. It ain't over till,

Matty B sings!

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

Well, the island has been spared any wind to speak of, 30-40 mph, and only .75-1 inch of rain....i hope you all on the east coast are spared any damage as this thing tracks across.

And now to de-bunker the Banana Cabana, and in a day or so Jackass Flatts will be back to it's lazy self.

Keeping my fingers crossed for the rest of you!

Rusty

[Jeff Searle]

Well, it's passed and missed us. Thank God. It's almost 11:00 am and I'm almost to 7" of rain now. Still some steady , but light winds and some gust. But the yard is fine, but very saturated.

Jeff