Climate Change

[amazondk]

I was searching around for more information on the last ice age and it's impacts on climate and came up with this article,

The last ice age to present.  There are some intersting points raised here.  One is that there have been abrupt changes in world temperatures many times over the last 150,000 years.  There have been warm times simlar to today and much colder drier times.  I have always been fascinated by the ice ages as I was raised in an area that was glaciated in recent history, northern Montana.  Here in Amazonia little concrete is really known about the exact conditions during the colder times, but the forest apparently was much smaller.  With the sea level as much as 120 meters below present the impact on the rivers was great.  Large areas of Amazonia north of Manaus into Venezuela were desert with dunes much like the Sahara oday.  The theory is that in our area the separation of forest areas during dry cool periods led to greater speciation.  Among the Earths tropical forests areas Amazonia has the greatest number of species.

Here is a time line from the article on the climate during this last glacial period, which I guess we are still in.  During the last glacial maximum our species was starting to colonize the world and as the climate warmed rapidly spread.

The Earth in Ice House mode.

[steve 9atx]

C'mon Don!  The guy that wrote your article didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize!  Everybody knows that earth's climate is driven purely by the atmospheric concentration of one simple molecule........

Steve

[amazondk]

Steve,

The only thing certain in life is change as far as I can see.  Well, besides death and taxes.  The point I find interesting is just how little time humans have been running around the planet and the planet has always been changing and sometimes suddenly.  The past 130,000 years is just a blimp in geologic history.  The climate change issue has become a political one unfortunately.  The one thing that we can say with at least some degree of certainty is what has happened in the past.  I do not see why the future would be much different.  Our planet, solar system, etc. are pretty complex things impacted by many factors in a constant state of change.  Since the last glacial maximum was only 18,000 years ago our current weather is the exception not the rule in recent geologic history.  18,000 years ago was when clovis stone points were first found in the Americas.  This was one of the factors that may have led to extinctions of larger mammals due to increased hunting efficiency.  It is also one of the probable factors proving a European contact with the Americas at this time.  These points were known in ice age France and not Europe.  The theory is that people had the techology in France to produce boats that could sail along the ice sheet in the summer and reach North America.  Since they have also found european DNA in some Canadian indians dating from this time this seems to be pretty likely to have happened. Personally from what I have read lately it may be much more likely that the Earth slides back into a colder cycle than a warmer one, in spite of human activities generating CO2.  I did not realize that as the ocean heats up it produces a lot of CO2.  But, the production of oceanic CO2 did not proceed the start of the last warm period which we are now in.  It started to show up 1,000 years after the Earth started to warm.  

Personally I am getting sick of the whole hype on the subject and it's political implications.  Growing plants is very affected by weather and climate.  Since the area I live in was still humid tropical forest during the last ice age and was also humid tropical forest in warmer periods I think I am pretty safe with what I plant.  Areas north and east of me were impacted though by becoming savana to the east and desert in some areas to the north.  In fact as far as weather goes I live in a real boring place.  But, I do think that this is an interesting subject.  Especially if you keep politics out of it and just watch the weather.

Here is what North America would look like today as far as vegetation if man were not a factor.

And, here is what it looked like just 18,000 years ago during the last glacial maximum.

[amazondk]

As I mentioned above, at least for the next ice age it should be ok here in Manaus.  Here is what the last one looked like in South America.  The last glacial maximum, 18,000 years before present.  The maps are from NOAA.  At Paleo climatology, NOAA

[amazondk]

North America does not look to good in an ice age.  I think warming would be a bit better more than likely.  The outlines of the continents are different due to decreased sea levels.

[bgl]

Don,

Like you, I also grew up in an area that was impacted by the last ice age. The mountains in Scandinavia have been heavily molded by the sheer weight of the ice shield, which has been estimated to have been at least half a mile thick. When it retreated in a northerly direction it really leveled off most of the mountains and made everything very gradual.

Like you said, the one thing that is certain is change, and I think we're just scratching the surface on what we know about current changes in the environment.

Incidentally, and not to be picky, you said:

"The past 130,000 years is just a blimp in geologic history. "

I think you meant to say "blip". A "blip" is very very tiny, and a blimp is of course HUGE in comparison!!

Bo-Göran

[amazondk]

Thanks Bo,  I stand corrected.  it is a blip.  Or a flash.  This thing of living multi lingual sometimes gets confusing.

The glaciers stopped their advance pretty close to my home town.  There are piles of rocks polished and scrapped under the weight of the ice.  I agree with you, we really do not know enough about all the factors that impact our climate to make accurate projections.  At least that is the way I see it.  There are a lot of variables when you take into account that we are flying around in space around a star.

dk

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

Don,

Looking at your stats, it is surprising how this warm period we are in is really way outside of the norm. I guess we are going into a cooler period sooner or later.  DARN!  I just bought a cyrtostachys at Jeff Searles!  It reminds me of the statement that William Gray made recently about hurricanes and that he expects cooler weather (not an ice age though) in 15 or 20 years.

Bo, when Don said "Blimp" he was probably thinking about me falling off my diet.

Geraldo

[bgl]

Well, hopefully it'll be a soft landing

[amazondk]

Jerry,

What I find interesting is the speed that the last glacial maximum ended and the climate modfied.  In 1,000 years the world went from cold and dry to warm and moist very similar to what we have today.  It must have been a very dynamic period with all that ice melting as fast as it did.  About 12,000 years ago when the world was leaving the last glacial period Lake Missoula which is today where the Clarks Fork River in Montana is broke and flooded northwestern North America, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon.  This lake was the size of lakes Erie  and Ontario combined and emptied in one massive flood as the ice dam broke.  There was 2,000 feet deep water in the lake at this time.  The story is here, Glacial Lake Missoula.  The lake emptied with a flow 60 times that of the Amazon River today.  It is hard to grasp how much water flows out of the Amazon let alone imagine something 60 times greater.  During this time people were living in the area already.  It must have been quite a sight to see.  But, surely not one that people lived through.

The Russians claim that we are heading back into a cooler period, despite greenhouse gas.  Who knows maybe they are right.  Whatever happens climate is dynamic and always has been.  And, it seems unlikely that one factor alone produces these changes.  That does not mean that human activity is not a factor.  But, to what degree I believe is far from being defined.

Jerry,

I hope your palms do well.  You could always bring them down here, even in an ice age they should do ok.

dk

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

The Aussies should chime in on this point, but I have heard that the rainforest in NE Queensland is anywhere from 60 million to 300 million years old.  Throughout all of Earth's changes, that area remained a rainforest.

If you go back only 150,000 years, it doesn't seem enough time to get a good idea of climate change.  Because of the Sun, Earth's slightly eccentric orbit, geological forces and plants and animals, there are too many variables to figure it out.  Is the climate truly cyclical, with even and predictable periods of warm and cold?  It appears not as you stats seem to indicate.  The only thing that is reliable is the fact that the weather is UNreliable.

I know that back in the old days, several hundred million years ago, the atmosphere had a much heavier concentration of CO2 and that plants (mostly sea going algae)started to change that by emitting O2.  After O2 was abundant enough then animals started to flourish.

Jerry

[amazondk]

Jerry,

Here are two graphs.  One for the past 160,000  Years (a short time), and other for the past 800,000 years (a medium time period).  From  this data we are in an interglacial period not a permanently warming one.  At least from what I have been able to determine from the reading I have been doing man made causes is at best a minor factor in the overall scheme of things.  The Earths wobble on it's axis, orbit, and solar activity are the main factors in climate change.  A very big factor of keeping the Earth in a cold state is polar ice.  Since snowfall has increased over Antarctica and Greenland their ice caps have grown.  This is likely due to increased water temperatures which generate more humidity and increase percipiatation over these land masses.  Since the ice caps act as cold sinks it seems likely that eventually this would trigger another onset of a colder climate.

So, I guess it would be proper to just relax and enjoy the warm weather.  Our descendents may not be so lucky.

[sonoranfans]

Nice research Don,

Unfortunately, no movie will be made about it(there will be no backing by hollywood), its kind of detailed for a soundbite(cant brainwash children, or adults with the brain of a child), and the "reptiles may inherit the earth" is a bad conclusion(at least near term, until it cools off again) of our warming climatological period.  

Time series prediction is very difficult, particularly with chaotic systems that are not well understood.  Witness the stock markets where prediction for even 1 year is difficult.  Now the farther into the future you predict, the more difficult it is.  Any influential variables, not accounted for in the model, can have a huge impact over the long haul.  Also, the assumptions of the dominating factors MUST continue for thousands of years in many of the models that are proposed, in spite of the fact that massive change occurs.  WHenever the government throws alot of money at science, there is a danger of alot of dreck.  And science that has no evaluation(results based, like atomic energy, medical disease research), can be nothing but dreck.  I fear our study of climatological science assumes so much as to be worthless, but the funding is flowing and it will continue unabated as the pigs at the troth continue to feed.  Just how is it evaluated by the funding apparatus?  It is scary, almost facist in its vociferous response to criticism, and thats not science.  Science requires critical feedback and testing to mature into something even remotely resembling truth.

The simple mind can always find one equation to represent it all and fool many other simple minds.  the observations of some russian scientists that sunspots dominate the heating/cooling of the climate would be a hopeless result for us poor humans.  If that were true, no one could win a nobel prize for being the chicken little of his generation as there woupd be no "solutions" to controlling global climate change(we are a bit arrogant arent we to assume we can?).

The Nobel prize is a strange comittee(who are they?) award with some strange background indeed.  It started a science award, but never had a prize for mathematics.  I dont know for sure, but rumour has it that Sir Alfred Nobels wife ran off with a mathematician!

[amazondk]

Tom,

A very similar thing happens with Amazonia.  The NGOs love the place because it can be portrayed as a doomsday scenario for the worlds ecosystem and good for capturing funds.  Undoubtedly Amazonia plays an important role in world climate and life on Earth.  I don't really go along with this argument as things here are a lot more complex than they are portrayed.  That is one of the reasons why I poke around the internet looking for information on such things.  Since my major field in college was Cultural Geography which focuses on mans impact on the planet and it's natural systems I sort of naturally look for such information.  I have no doubt that modern man has some impact on the functioning of our planet.  But, I strongly doubt it is a major one.  I think we many times tend to over estimate our power.  Nature still is much more powerful force than anything humans have produced.  We have been in an era with ice ages for 2 million years.  It seems strange that a century of industrial activity would be such a strong factor that it would over ride natural forces.  This is another link to NOAA about paleo climatology and ice ages, NOAA paleoclimate.  Not that this theory is the only one out there, but the time line of events is what it is.  But, the main point that variations in the Earths orbit and axis are the major factors along with solar radiation changes.  What amazes me is how life has been able to adapt and evolve in the face of an ever changing environment.  The ice ages surely were not a very nice period to be in over much of the planet.   During the last glacial maximum the prevailing winds even blew from the East over North America.  

I don't know much about the Nobel prize, as I never paid much attention to it.  But, it would seem hard to believe that it has much to do with real science.  

While driving around Manaus today looking at the tropical nature around I became very impressed at how life clings and evolves in spite of adversity.  I guess that is what makes nature so fascinating.  Let's say that there is nothing we can do to prevent climate change, then maybe we should be looking for ways to mitigate the damage, not change the outcome.  An ice sheet moving out of Northeastern Canada focusing in on the Northeastern USA certainly will have a major impact.  Even if it takes a while to hit it's target.  

dk

dk

[amazondk]

These two timelines from NOAA are quite intersting.  One is the temperature variation over the last million years and the other the fluctuation in sea level in comparison with today's mean sea level.  The temperature clears shows what I showed above.  We are in the warm cycle of an interglacial, unless the glacial period has suddenly ended.  The sea level is real interesting.  The rise since the last glacial maximum, 18,000 years ago is now 120 meters above that level.  But the spike shows that maybe around 5,000 years ago the mean seal level was 10 meters above that of today.  That would mean a big drop in what is historic time for humans.  

[sonoranfans]

(amazondk @ Oct. 16 2007,12:08)

QUOTE

These two timelines from NOAA are quite intersting.  One is the temperature variation over the last million years and the other the fluctuation in sea level in comparison with today's mean sea level.  The temperature clears shows what I showed above.  We are in the warm cycle of an interglacial, unless the glacial period has suddenly ended.  The sea level is real interesting.  The rise since the last glacial maximum, 18,000 years ago is now 120 meters above that level.  But the spike shows that maybe around 5,000 years ago the mean seal level was 10 meters above that of today.  That would mean a big drop in what is historic time for humans.  

Funny how 1 10m drop goes unnoticed in the last 5K years, but a 1M rise will be global catastrophy in the future.  My question is where are all the climatological scientists who should be asking these kinds of questions of the global warming scientific elite.  has their funding been cut off?  strangely silent, perhaps there is no media time for them.

[ruskinPalms]

Very interesting thread. Florida looks like it was pretty cold 18000 years ago. Were there sabals in FL 18000 years ago? Are there any fossils from that time period? If they survived here 18000 years ago in zones that bordered taiga, no wonder they are so cold hardy.  I am guessing that the tender south FL native species like Roystonea, Thrinax and Pseudophoenix are fairly new additions within the last 5000 to 7000 years.

[SubTropicRay]

Bill,

As we'll see in the coming three months, it's still pretty cold here.

Ray

[ruskinPalms]

And this may sound stupid, but is it possible that FL was actually WARMER during glacial periods since the prevailing mid latitude winds were coming from the east, unlike the westerlies of today? Cold fronts were mostly "backdoor" cold fronts that would cross the relatively warmer atlantic before getting to FL?

[spockvr6]

(Ray, Tampa @ Oct. 16 2007,13:21)

QUOTE

Bill,

As we'll see in the coming three months, it's still pretty cold here.

Ray

Yes...an average high of 72F in January really stinks!

[gsn]

Larry,

Ray is having trouble finding a NEW doctor to prescribe stronger medication,for his winter time blues!

Oh  but what we  could grow, except for 3 or 4 days out of those 3 months!

[SubTropicRay]

The median temp of about 60F does suck. You get the 72F by having a few days around 80F and a few with highs around 58-60F.  It's the latter I despise.

[spockvr6]

Scott-

I think we had better start looking into some "offshore" and perhaps "unconventional" medical assistance for our pal Ray.  It seems that no matter the dosage, the FDA approved treatments have not been successful

[Alan_Tampa]

Ray, you and your damn realistic views.  Maybe it will freeze, maybe it won't;  but wait at least till December to start the cold front blues.

Alan

[SubTropicRay]

The anticipation is just killing me.  I can't wait for those cool, dry breezes and the nice new sweaters......NOT.  BTW Alan, is the breadfruit tree still alive?

[amazondk]

What has impressed me while looking at the information I dug up is that the facts of our climate over the recent past, say 1 million years do not point to the type of man made disaster eminant that we are being feed every day now.  The facts point to natural shifts in climate. It would be very interesting to know where the palms were during the various climates of the recent geologic past.  I found this quite interesting,

Artic Ice as related to polar bears and Artic ice.  Here is the end of the article.  I think it is a lot more prudent to worry about the next 6 months than the next 60 years. LIG is the Last Inter Glacial.

"The next time that you see Al Gore’s photo collection of decaying glaciers and polar bears drowning as the distance between icebergs and the shore is too far to swim, think of the LIG – a natural period in Earth’s history when hippopotamus and the water tortoise were widespread as far north as Great Britain and birch forests reached the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Remember that then, as now, the Arctic naturally warmed more dramatically than the rest of the world, and also keep in mind that our modern global climate models – those that sit next to the panic button – are stumbling around that reality."

[amazondk]

This is an interesting chronology of climate since in recent geologic past and it's relationship to European human activity, Europe and climate

[steve 9atx]

Don

Stop making this so complicated!  I need a simple answer that comports with my self-loathing humanist worldview, an answer that allows me to assign blame.  Force majeure won't cut it!

Steve

[amazondk]

Steve,

What can I say I guess life most likely just isn't that simple.  Que sera sera.

What will be interesting, not that we will be around to see it, is what state humanity is in during the onset of the next ice age.  That is providing Ice Ages have not ended and we have not entered into some new climate system instead.  Which I would say would be sort of unlikely taking more recent geologic history into account.  Until I starting looking into this record of paleo climates I did not realize that the average sea level was 10 meters higher than today some 6,000 years ago or so.  That coincides I would say with the Great Flood story common to  many religions.  For the sea level to rise 130 meters in a relatively short time would seem to me like a flood, even if it took a few thousand years to happen.  From 18,000 years ago to that peak it was a rapid increase of water level.  Even if this has nothing to do with the great flood.  It certainly would have been noticable to those folks living by the water, which more than likely was a lot of humanity at the time.   From the spike on the chart it also shows that it dropped back to present levels real fast.  

I guess that if Global Warming had not set in in over the past 12,000 years in a great degree we would more than likely still be hunter gathers trying to eak out a living on a cold hostile planet.  That is aside from those lucky enough to be located in the Tropics.

dk