TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

[happ]

Larry Cosgrove - WxAmerica - Sunday, August 13, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

I have had quite a few emails recently proclaiming  "bust" in a "dud" tropical cyclone season. With only three named storms so far, and none of them hurricanes, this rush to judgment might seem understandable. However, the old adage that "there is a reason why NHC does not quit giving advisories until November 30" is a valuable consideration. After looking at computer forecasts, SST charts, and satellite images, I suspect that some of you storm enthusiasts are in for a real treat. And in a fairly short amount of time.

First of all, upper level wind outlooks show nearly contiguous heat ridging from Greece westward to the International Dateline. This tells us that deep mean easterlies will be transporting African ITCZ waves, uninterrupted by TUTT signatures, all the way to the Greater Antilles and perhaps into the U.S. Secondly, anomalously warm water is prevalent all through the western Atlantic Basin. The cooler waters that were seen earlier along and west of the Cape Verde Islands have moderated, ridding another impediment to tropical cyclone formation. And most importantly, the core of the Saharan heat ridge is migrating into the Mediterranean Sea near Sicily and Greece. This action will shift the searing, dusty cTw air mass away from western Africa and the eastern Atlantic Ocean and into southern Europe, which will experience a run of dangerously hot and smoggy days during the medium range.

What this means for hurricane potential is this: those gigantic convective circulation seen on METEOSAT images will not automatically fall apart upon hitting the coastline at Dakar. The large system now edging offshore has swallowed a lot of drier values, so its development may be unlikely. But other features along the ITCZ will have a chance at becoming better organized, as will impulses further west which have so far been consumed by the Saharan regime. Keep an eye on the disturbance over the Windward Islands, which may yet intensify as it moves away from the dry, capped regime and into warm waters with little vertical shear.

[SunnyFl]

Wow, there's someone else on this forum who gets Larry's Letter too.....

I saw his tropical outlook the other day and groaned.  We need a respite from the last two years of devastation and wreckage.  The human toll of it all was staggering.  The effect on horticulture was a disaster.  And Fairchild was badly damaged.

Time to reconsider wind-resistance when planting palms.  Those that are prone to uprooting or being broken in high winds need a protected location.  As for the more resistant species, there's a very good thread on this in the "Discussing Palms" forum.

I think that, up to this point, we've been spared a lot of activity by the Saharan dust, and it's quite upsetting to read that this may be shifting away.  One hope for a quiet season - which he didn't mention - is the possibility that an el Nino may be forming, but this isn't too certain.

[SoLando]

In the paper today, they were talking about how the the wind should stop shearing the tops off pretty soon, and then it said FL should get hit pretty bad since all this warm water is going unused. Eek.

[Exotic Life]

(SoLando @ Aug. 20 2006,15:30)

QUOTE

In the paper today, they were talking about how the the wind should stop shearing the tops off pretty soon, and then it said FL should get hit pretty bad since all this warm water is going unused. Eek.

But is very still on the sea, the have got so far 3 "little" storms .. Last year they have got more around this time ...

Why is it this year so slow ? Because they have say that this year will be a active hurricane season like last year ...

[SunnyFl]

(Exotic Life @ Aug. 21 2006,05:24)

QUOTE

But is very still on the sea, the have got so far 3 "little" storms .. Last year they have got more around this time ...

Why is it this year so slow ? Because they have say that this year will be a active hurricane season like last year ...

SoLando and Exotic Life,

So far this year, we've been lucky due to the persistent wind shear and dry air.  But that may be about to change.  The Director of the National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield, says the Atlantic's bell is about to start ringing.  Oh dear.

You can find more about it on the Storm2K board here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88460

[Exotic Life]

I found this to ... I read a article on a dutch website about the "still" hurricane season so far but on the west pacific the have got already 17 storms.

The say the water is to cold around the west of Africa where the storms be born.

A card from 20 July 2006, Yellow color's meens around the 25C, so to cold ....

A card from 20 August 2006, more red colors is coming ...

So maybe this gonna be a late hurricane season for you guys ?

[spockvr6]

I always get a kick out of all the predictions these experts make!  

IMO, its nothing but Monday morning quarterbacking as no one ever steps forward with positive information.   They only look backwards and say...."See!  I told you!"

LOL.

In the end, no one can do anything but offer conjecture based on certain statistical probabilities.  And those probabilities seem rife with assumptions which may or may not even be valid.

So...in the end...all we can do is sit and wait.  (But, while waiting we should be checking our hurricane shutters and standby generators )

[SunnyFl]

(spockvr6 @ Aug. 21 2006,10:11)

QUOTE

So...in the end...all we can do is sit and wait.  (But, while waiting we should be checking our hurricane shutters

check.

and standby generators )

check.

And stake our fragile tropicals.

btw - we have TD 4.  let's hope it's a fish.

[SoLando]

Yep, saw TD 4. It's big, but who knows if it'll actually make it to any land.

[Exotic Life]

So far, they expect a hurricane catogorie 1 .. So this will be the 4 named storm Debby.

[SunnyFl]

(Exotic Life @ Aug. 22 2006,13:47)

QUOTE

So far, they expect a hurricane catogorie 1 .. So this will be the 4 named storm Debby.

Yep, we have Debbie.  The thought is that it will recurve since it organized quickly.

But now there's Invest 97L (how do they assign the invest #s?) - under favorable conditions, and I don't like what the models are projecting.

We've just moved all my shade loving palmies into a canvas gazebo-thing as we no longer have any shade.  Hoping a big wind doesn't blow it all away  

[Exotic Life]

And the fifth storm is born ... The predicted it's gonna be a hurricane catogorie 1. This one looks like to make a landfall .... This will be Ernesto !

Debby is no danger anymore, the look like to go the other way, i have it give the bad weather a lot of rain to spain, the need that there. Most of the when a hurricane is only strong clouds with a lot of rain we get them ...

[SunnyFl]

(Exotic Life @ Aug. 25 2006,11:11)

QUOTE

And the fifth storm is born ... The predicted it's gonna be a hurricane catogorie 1. This one looks like to make a landfall .... This will be Ernesto !

Update:  the 5th storm,  f/k/a 97L,  f/k/a TD5,  is now Hurricane Ernesto, and predicted to be a bit more than cat1.  The shift in the 5-day forecast was not a pleasant thing to wake up to.  Because the graphic now looks like this:

[SoLando]

Well, we're definitely going to get that rain! Ha......

[Exotic Life]

It looks like he's going to hit tampa ?

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

It looks like he's going to hit tampa ?

That is what was said just over 2 years ago when Charlie was forcast to make the trek north...back then it was in a different position, and the western part of Cuba was crossed.... the eastern part is higher and may slow it down, but i would hope we dont get hit here so soon after Charlie.

[happ]

Batten down, Floridians  

Hopefully Ernesto will clip Cuba and lose some momentum & at least stay category 1.    

[SoLando]

State of Emergency all ready. A little early?? It's not even in the Gulf yet. For all they know, it could just turn back into the Atlantic.

[Exotic Life]

Wow, the course of the hurricane is every day diffrent ... tampa don't be hit anytime now  ???

[SoLando]

As long as Orange County schools are closed, I'm good.. I just hope it doesn't hit Miami that hard. ..It will definitely bring the much needed rain to us!

[Dacher]

It seems to me its like the activity seasaws from the atlantic to pacific from year to year. Like -every other- season before, the Atlantic is only spawning a few feeble duds while the eastern pacific is tearing it up with one hurricane after another....

The eastern pacific is impressive when it comes to tropical storms; It only has half the room to work with (the hotwater basin in the east pacific is tiny)and even last year when the atlantic was hogging all the tropical waves, the Pacific spawned 7 full fleged hurricanes, which would be considered a busy season for the atlantic. Luckly the same forces that push storms into land on the atlantic, pushes them out to sea in the pacific.... and california is almost immune with its cold water shield.

I'd say for all the east coasters, get ready for next year because thats when it will get busy/scary again. This year looks to be a respit -knocks on wood-