Calling Dr. Happ!

[DoomsDave 8,784]

Looks like there's a big storm coming down off Alaska, though it might not make it far enough south to make it possible to skip watering again this weekend . . .

Any thoughts?

dave

[happ 140]

Hi Dave,

Sorry to disappoint but it is unlikely that we will have a repeat of last weekend    The trough and dying cold front could produce some drizzle though.

We are in a pattern of progressive Pacific systems but primarily far to the north of SoCal.  This coming week should be sunny/warm with periodic coastal clouds.  The cool temps have allowed for less irrigating but Sept/Oct normally is as warm as July/August for good palm growth.  It has been cooler than normal for most of September.

[PalmGuyWC 1,482]

For the inland areas of N. Calif. around San Francisco Bay, it's been a cooler than normal summer, prob about 10 degrees cooler with only a couple of heat waves that didn't last long. Actually for me, it's been almost perfect weather, comfortable for humans and palms.

The trend is still on the cool side and it's 46F here this morning, lower than I would normally expect this time of the year and the lowest temp. since last spring. I have a gut feeling this will be another cold, dry winter as usually cold winters seem to come in a series.

I'll be out cutting bamboo to make frames to protect some of my more cold sensitive plants this winter. I swore I would never do this, but it only takes a couple of cold nights to damage or kill years of growth. I only have about a half a dozen cold sensitive palms in the ground and I'd hate to loose them.

I found out last winter, just a sheet thrown over a palm can add a lot of protection from frost. A light bulb or two under a sheet gives added protection. Darn, I hate winter.

Dick

[corkycory 1]

My area received a small shower Friday morning, not sure about the rest of san diegooo though

[happ 140]

(PalmGuyWC @ Sep. 29 2007,09:59)

QUOTE

For the inland areas of N. Calif. around San Francisco Bay, it's been a cooler than normal summer, prob about 10 degrees cooler with only a couple of heat waves that didn't last long. Actually for me, it's been almost perfect weather, comfortable for humans and palms.

The trend is still on the cool side and it's 46F here this morning, lower than I would normally expect this time of the year and the lowest temp. since last spring. I have a gut feeling this will be another cold, dry winter as usually cold winters seem to come in a series.

I'll be out cutting bamboo to make frames to protect some of my more cold sensitive plants this winter. I swore I would never do this, but it only takes a couple of cold nights to damage or kill years of growth. I only have about a half a dozen cold sensitive palms in the ground and I'd hate to loose them.

I found out last winter, just a sheet thrown over a palm can add a lot of protection from frost. A light bulb or two under a sheet gives added protection. Darn, I hate winter.

Dick

Dick

I used to travel regularly thru the San Ramon valley on the way to Sacramento & know how much hotter it is than SF bay.  

Summer was a total no-show in western Europe    It trended cooler than normal in SoCal this year but with sustained periods of heat/humidity.

Have several early summer transplants that could use more heat.  Growth is still occurring but not at the pace it should for the season.  2 frost-damaged veitchia arecina [$ cheap] have yet to fully open [a slow palm for me        

Quick warm-up [90F inland tomorrow followed by a weak intrusion of the polar jet stream & cooler temps later in the week.

[PalmGuyWC 1,482]

Hap,

You seem to be the weather expert down there.  What is your guesstimate for this winter? It was nasty up here last winter with about 3 weeks of sustained below freezing temps at night in Jan. It was one of the longest periods I can every remember, but no cloud cover and clear nights.

This reminds me of 89/90 and we were having a drought then too.

Dick

[happ 140]

(PalmGuyWC @ Sep. 29 2007,13:18)

QUOTE

Hap,

You seem to be the weather expert down there.  What is your guesstimate for this winter? It was nasty up here last winter with about 3 weeks of sustained below freezing temps at night in Jan. It was one of the longest periods I can every remember, but no cloud cover and clear nights.

This reminds me of 89/90 and we were having a drought then too.

Dick

I do not predict weather but rather collect/record temps/rain as an observer of climate.  Patterns emerge that can help forecasters [ie ocean temps]

Weather nerds/scientists are watching La Nina develop & most seem to agree with NWS/Climate Prediction Center:

September 20 2007 discussion

. . .  THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2007 CALLS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONTANA WESTWARD AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  HISTORICALLY BOTH OF THESE REGIONS EXPERIENCE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST DUE LARGELY TO THE LONG-TERM TRENDS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SSTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES THERE . . .  FOR OND 2007 ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA CONDITIONS AND ALSO THE LONG-TERM TRENDS.  THE CHANCE OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE MORE RAPID AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS.

Similar SST [sea surface temperatures] anomaly averages for 1988/1989, 1995/1996, & 1998/1999 were all La Nina years .  My records for these recent La Nina shows no minimums below 40F but slightly cooler than normal winter night temps.  Rainfall varied from much below normal to slightly above normal.

It's anybody's guess what this winter will be  :laugh: