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Shifting Hardiness Zones


knikfar

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I'll start by saying I know hardiness zones have to be taken with a grain of salt because they don't account for duration of cold and are based on average lows, not low temps experienced in vortex winters. But I did read a NYT article that said hardiness zones are moving 13 miles north every decade. Looking at the attached hardiness zone map of my area, from 2012, anyone think I can safely say I'm zone 8a vs 7b? My house is marked by the red star. 

HardinessZoneofmyhouse.png

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12 minutes ago, knikfar said:

I'll start by saying I know hardiness zones have to be taken with a grain of salt because they don't account for duration of cold and are based on average lows, not low temps experienced in vortex winters. But I did read a NYT article that said hardiness zones are moving 13 miles north every decade. Looking at the attached hardiness zone map of my area, from 2012, anyone think I can safely say I'm zone 8a vs 7b? My house is marked by the red star. 

HardinessZoneofmyhouse.png

I suggest you look at this map. https://usfs.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=611d3e5ac1774a21a6ff55aceb8f588c This shows you the projected hardiness zones for the United States. When you click on the link, click on the "Content" section, once this is done, you can click any of the projected hardiness zone maps. You can even see the lower emissions or a higher emissions scenario. By the looks of it, the historical 2009 map this website has, already is saying you are in zone 8a. I wouldn't say for sure, but there is a good chance you are already in a colder zone 8a. Also, make sure you post anything related to climate in the WEATHER/CLIMATE section.

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Why not just calculate it?  Find the absolute single low temp each year for 30 years in your area and put it into a spreadsheet or similar and find the average.  

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YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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7 minutes ago, Allen said:

Why not just calculate it?  Find the absolute single low temp each year for 30 years in your area and put it into a spreadsheet or similar and find the average.  

Then graph the data points and add a trend line

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31 minutes ago, Allen said:

Why not just calculate it?  Find the absolute single low temp each year for 30 years in your area and put it into a spreadsheet or similar and find the average.  

Where is this information most easily accessable?

 

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51 minutes ago, knikfar said:

I'll start by saying I know hardiness zones have to be taken with a grain of salt because they don't account for duration of cold and are based on average lows, not low temps experienced in vortex winters. But I did read a NYT article that said hardiness zones are moving 13 miles north every decade. Looking at the attached hardiness zone map of my area, from 2012, anyone think I can safely say I'm zone 8a vs 7b? My house is marked by the red star. 

HardinessZoneofmyhouse.png

While looking at graphs that lay out what the coldest low you might have seen in the past / might see again once or twice in the future helps, that is just part of understanding the planting zones.  I myself don't dwell on " what could happen / had happened 30, 70, 90 years ago " ..Is something i keep in the back of my mind, just in case, because weather / WX forecasts /  have never been an exact science, and never will be.. 

Remember too that micro- climate level factors can determine whether or not you have " moved up the ladder ", so to speak..  Your yard have lots of open sky?, Generally, you will run cooler than if you have lots of canopy..  Same if you live in a cold sink,  rather than on some sort of slope where really cold air can drain off. South facing side of a slope is always warmer as well.. Closer you are to the boundary of say 7B/8A,  higher chance your winters will veer back and forth between the two zones ..though likely leaning on the warmer 8A side ..At least until the " new " zone has filled in across the entire area around you as well.. While comfortably inside 9B ( honestly 10A most winters now ) still close enough to where 9A holds on to my south that i pay close attention when the right WX pattern sets up and threatens to bring a night / few nights of widespread mid 20 / low end 9B lows. 

You could also " test " your new zone by choosing easy to replace, and fairly cheap things that might  have an easier time surviving in zone 8, then using how those things do as a guide for adding in other " trial - worthy " things that might be harder or more costly to replace..

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Here ya go for Raleigh but notice you have a lot of lows that will kill a lot of palms.

    Low F
1993   14
1994   2
1995   12
1996   0
1997   12
1998   18
1999   12
2000   1
2001   12
2002   13
2003   10
2004   11
2005   11
2006   16
2007   15
2008   15
2009   11
2010   15
2011   16
2012   19
2013   18
2014   7
2015   7
2016   15
2017   9
2018   4
2019   17
2020   20
2021   20
2022   15
  Average

12F

Zone 8A

Edited by Allen
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YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@tntropics - 60+ In-ground 7A palms - (Sabal) minor(7 large + 27 seedling size, 3 dwarf),  brazoria(1) , birmingham(4), etonia (1) louisiana(5), palmetto (1), riverside (1),  (Trachycarpus) fortunei(7), wagnerianus(1),  Rhapidophyllum hystrix(7),  15' Mule-Butia x Syagrus(1),  Blue Butia capitata(1) +Tons of tropical plants.  Recent Yearly Lows -1F, 12F, 11F, 18F, 16F, 3F, 3F, 6F, 3F, 1F, 16F, 17F, 6F, 8F

 

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