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Chester B

Spring weather PNW

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UK_Palms
1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Would read through this week's blog update, esp. the fine print..  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

So that blog was released on Monday 2nd May, back when the GFS was suggesting exceptional warmth for the PNW 10-14 days out, so Judah is reaffirming that. However the models have since shifted back in line again with the NOAA predictions of below average temperatures at least up until about the 20th May. I'm pretty sure if that blog was released today it would be somewhat different for that reason. I suspect he drafted it up on the 1st and it was released on the 2nd, however there has since been quite a few model changes, globally, over the past 48-72 hours, which the blog doesn't reflect. As I type this I can see model signals further strengthening for a below average period in the PNW through to June. Judah's post suggests it is going to warm up though, which now contradicts the current forecast models.

I have been keeping close tabs on the PNW weather for a number of months now, since it is probably the closest North American climate to my own. They really need northwestern Europe to be running below average here, in order for the PNW to be running above average, and visa versa. It may seem like that should not even be a thing, but it seems to be the case about 90% of the time. I think it is due to jet stream kinks and positioning (higher/lower), although a lot of their cold in recent months is due to a relatively strong La Nina and below average SST. If London is nudging 90F late next week, as the models are starting to suggest, I simply cannot see it being even average, let alone above average, in the PNW. Hence why I said the other day that one of those two forecasts models (PNW & W Europe) would be wrong. Any prolonged warm/dry period in northwest Europe probably doesn't bode well for the PNW.

Here is the furthest model run out to the 20th. Things could change between now and then, and I suspect a day or two will be running above average between then and now, but I think the continuing below average theme due to La Nina is pretty evident. I suspect the PNW will recover eventually and have a back loaded summer with a hot August/September this year. It seems 2010 and 2011 had pretty hot ends to summer and warm falls, akin to a moderate-strong La Nina during summer. You just need those SST's to recover, which they will do eventually. Off the back of a below average winter and one of the coldest springs on record (due to La Nina), those SST's are currently running quite a bit below average and will be for quite a while yet.

gfs_T2ma_nwus_64.jpg.726a00e021910d74d173d0f1fada5779.jpg

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Hutch

Every La Nina I've been through have all been different and very hard to predict what will happen...cold then hot...cold cold cold...hot hot who the heck knows....the West needs the rain bad soo I'm not complaining yet....looks like it might try and warm up here in a week or so fingers crossed...anyways..already have 1.5 in the rain gauge for May...jeeeeez!

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Chester B
15 hours ago, Hutch said:

Every La Nina I've been through have all been different and very hard to predict what will happen...cold then hot...cold cold cold...hot hot who the heck knows....the West needs the rain bad soo I'm not complaining yet....looks like it might try and warm up here in a week or so fingers crossed...anyways..already have 1.5 in the rain gauge for May...jeeeeez!

I'm complaining - enough is enough.  Our average rainfall for May is 2.51", we might break that this weekend.  Right now second half of May it looks like we'll be drying out and approaching near normal temps.

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ShadyDan

I just had a meeting with the BC Coastal Fire Center and they released their updated summer forecast today. They were originally calling for a warm-up and drying mid-May / early June but their updated forecast is calling for colder / wetter conditions all summer. No forest fires at least, but looks like its going to suck for camping and growing stuff.

I'm also sick of this. I'm tired of looking at my weather app and seeing rain icons and 0 days above 15C. Our forecasted daytime highs are closer to our average lows than our average highs right now. Every time they do predict warm and sunny weather it flips back to cold and wet a few days before. My figs and persimmons are barely leafing out and I've really seen no appreciable growth on any of my palms (except Trachys). 

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Chester B
6 hours ago, ShadyDan said:

I just had a meeting with the BC Coastal Fire Center and they released their updated summer forecast today. They were originally calling for a warm-up and drying mid-May / early June but their updated forecast is calling for colder / wetter conditions all summer. No forest fires at least, but looks like its going to suck for camping and growing stuff.

I'm also sick of this. I'm tired of looking at my weather app and seeing rain icons and 0 days above 15C. Our forecasted daytime highs are closer to our average lows than our average highs right now. Every time they do predict warm and sunny weather it flips back to cold and wet a few days before. My figs and persimmons are barely leafing out and I've really seen no appreciable growth on any of my palms (except Trachys). 

I see the same thing, good weather in the forecast and a couple days before it hits they scrap it completely and back to February weather.  I usually have all my annuals in the ground early April.  I'm just now starting to think that I need to go and buy them.

Non native maples here still don't have their full set of leaves and neither do the oaks .  Paw paws buds have finally opened but a long way from full sized leaves, and flowers have not opened yet.  My mimosa and chitalpa trees have no signs of life yet, they are usually late compared to other trees though.

Itching to get outside and do stuff, but its hard with the buckets of rain we've been having this year.  I wonder if we'll break the all time rainfall record for May as well as April.

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Jesse PNW

All I know is, World Naked Gardening Day was a bit chilly today.  

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sandgroper
6 hours ago, Jesse PNW said:

All I know is, World Naked Gardening Day was a bit chilly today.  

And I thought I was the only one, agreed mate, a bit cool. :D

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Jesse PNW

It's supposed to get down to 39 here tonight.  

I'm done growing exotics, it's boxwood and Sitka spruce from here on out. 

Seriously though.  The agony for me is waiting to see if my colocasias and cannas made it through our rough winter.  Trachycarpus are moving albeit slowly.  Pretty amazing to see them pushing new growth although it's jacket weather. 

At least the yard should stay green a little longer this summer, and the fruit trees won't need as much water. 

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Chester B

No reason the cannas shouldn’t make it, they’re pretty tough. No sign of mine yet but it’s been too cold. 
 

I’ve had colocasias come back for me, but they usually slowly die over a couple years. I haven’t been giving them the soil and attention they need. 
 

Of the deciduous “tropical” Plants that I have only the basjoo are growing but they are so far behind this year. 
 

I'm showing a low of 40 tonight. Cold day today too with frequent showers. 

Edited by Chester B

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Collectorpalms

When I Move to the PNW,  Ill be sure to have a heated greenhouse. That way as soon as the weather breaks, I can have all the seasonal topicals fully leafed out ready to go out. It is sorta the same thing for Texas in spring if you want annuals.  The springs can be very short. The time from last frost to heat wave can be only a few weeks. So spring and early summer annuals need to be ready to go as soon as possible. Shrubs and trees have a hard time getting established as well because people wait till spring to plant, but then the plants have no chance for a Texas summer. We already had our first heat advisory and heat indexes above 105+ this weekend.  Even plants like Colocasias and Caladiums are ready to go, but if you didn't have a greenhouse even in zone 8b TX, they would be way behind what the nurseries bring in.

Edited by Collectorpalms

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UK_Palms
19 hours ago, Chester B said:

No reason the cannas shouldn’t make it, they’re pretty tough. No sign of mine yet but it’s been too cold. 
 

I’ve had colocasias come back for me, but they usually slowly die over a couple years. I haven’t been giving them the soil and attention they need. 
 

Of the deciduous “tropical” Plants that I have only the basjoo are growing but they are so far behind this year. 
 

I'm showing a low of 40 tonight. Cold day today too with frequent showers. 

My Cannas have been coming up in recent weeks, although I am having to water the absolute living hell out of them to get them moving though. Last year they were delayed by a number of weeks during our record cold spring, similar to what you are experiencing this year...

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The Cannas are doing better than the tomatoes though, which are really struggling in the dustbowl, despite generous irrigation. 

311528505_thumbnail_image0(92).thumb.jpg.b674043645e78762b0d5f0ac1bdd78f0.jpg

 

Are you growing tomatoes this year and when do you think you would be able to plant them out there in Portland this spring? What is your current rainfall total for May so far as well?

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Jesse PNW

I'm not sure when the latest frost has occurred here.  But this is just pretty dang late. Picture from today.  Neighbors roof.

20220510_061219.jpg

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ShadyDan
On 5/8/2022 at 10:09 PM, Collectorpalms said:

When I Move to the PNW,  Ill be sure to have a heated greenhouse. That way as soon as the weather breaks, I can have all the seasonal topicals fully leafed out ready to go out. It is sorta the same thing for Texas in spring if you want annuals.  The springs can be very short. The time from last frost to heat wave can be only a few weeks. So spring and early summer annuals need to be ready to go as soon as possible. Shrubs and trees have a hard time getting established as well because people wait till spring to plant, but then the plants have no chance for a Texas summer. We already had our first heat advisory and heat indexes above 105+ this weekend.  Even plants like Colocasias and Caladiums are ready to go, but if you didn't have a greenhouse even in zone 8b TX, they would be way behind what the nurseries bring in.

Greenhouses are great here, but unless you want to grow tender tropicals all year round (including in the dead of winter) I think the heating part is unnecessary and expensive. I have a few strings of C9 x-mas lights on a thermostat to keep my greenhouse above 0 during cold winter nights, but otherwise its not heated. By the time late February / early March rolls around, the days are longer and the sun is getting strong enough to keep the daytime temps close to 30C when sunny, and between 15-20C when overcast. My citrus are in full bloom right now, greenhouse broccoli almost all harvested, canna lilies in 512A plug sizes overdue for getting in the ground, and I have sold about 25 1-gallon sized Eucalyptus trees (seed sown in greenhouse in January). Despite, of course, this year being much cooler, cloudier, and rainier than usual.

 @Chester B I only have 1/10 cannas popping up outside so far, definitely behind schedule. Basjoos look pathetic and wimpy currently too. I am pleasantly surprised to see that all my dahlias made it through the winter and are actually putting on some decent growth. The past few days the weather man has been calling for overcast/rain with highs of 11-12C, however its been mostly sunny with highs reaching 15-16C, with all the rain and clouds sticking to the interior of the Island. I'll be more than happy if he keeps messing the crappy forecast up going forward! Looks like tomorrow / Thursday are going to be total washouts with cool, potentially record breaking, low daytime highs. I have about 2,000 trees to plant out in the woods for work those days, not looking forward to it. Half expecting to get snowed on while I'm out there...
 

 @UK_Palms up here on Vancouver Island, I've historically always put my tomatoes in the ground in mid-May once the nighttime lows are consistently over 7C and always have great crops. Not a chance this year if the extended forecast holds true. Luckily, I have a greenhouse to keep them warm until the weather starts to cooperate. So far, we have "only" had 13.2mm of rain here in May, but Nanaimo totaled it wettest April in the 130 years of record keeping with 164.8mm of rain... gross!

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Hutch

Are you kidding me......gosh dang Jessie ..thats terrible...we were supposed to get frost last night but clouds prevailed low of 40.....i can't believe this crap.....but we did get up to 67 today....

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Hutch

Hey ..Chester ..im now at 3.6 inches for the month ..... it's ridiculous...standing water in areas and now another storm...!!#

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Jesse PNW

Dang Bryan I thought you'd always be a good 6 or 8 degrees warmer than me, never thought they'd call for frost this late for you.  

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Collectorpalms

We all have our challenges. Cannas are blooming, thanks to 3 inches rainfalls about spaces 3 weeks apart. 3 time times in a row. Not always this fortunate. Most of Texas/Southwest in in extreme drought I am the lucky lone area that received rain so far.... cannot last. Going into June, its dependent on tropical systems which can be zilch.

Edited by Collectorpalms

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Hutch

It's Friday the 13th...and the insanity contuines...4 inches in rain gauge, and it's raining again pretty hard.  Atleast it's a decently warm rain this time around 59 here now ..ya Jessie just insane man...i couldn't believe the advisory..but it didn't pan out soo that's good!

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Chester B

No danger of frost up this way but even yesterday my backyard was pretty much a thin layer of standing water.  You can actually hear the water trickling down the slope of my yard.  Last night was a warm one for a change, I woke up to 60F.  The forecast going forward is still about 10F below normal.  No real hot days either in the forecast.  I'm finding everything is pretty late to get going this year.  Even the Trachys are hardly moving, whereas this is the time that they usually show the fastest growth of the year.  At least its cool for working in the garden.  I hope to be done all my changes in the next couple weeks so I can sit back and enjoy for the summer.

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