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Chester B

Spring weather PNW

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Chester B

Spring? What spring?  We've been about 10-15 degrees below normal and today hit with the latest snow in Portland's history.  On top of that it's also the most snow we've had all winter.

Schools closed, Highways closed, trees down everywhere and at least 50,000 without power.  Depending on location some areas have 8", I have about probably about 3".  It's the real wet heavy stuff.  

I'm glad I didn't buy an annuals yet, and left my Ensete in the garage.

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Edited by Chester B
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UK_Palms

I’m not going to lie, I can see quite strong similarities between the weather you guys have been having in recent months and the weather we had last year from January - August. We had an abnormally cold winter in 2021, which was then followed by the worst, coldest spring on record for me here. That also paved the way for the coldest summer in 9 years since 2012 too last year. Whereas you guys had the exact opposite right? A pretty mild winter, a decent spring and then a very hot summer in 2021 in the PNW. If things continue, I would expect the below average temperatures to impact your coming summer to a degree, due to cooler land and sea temperatures heading into summer. 

As you have previously noted, we seem to have the opposite weather to you guys in Western Europe. This year is no exception. We have had a fairly mild winter, a relatively mild spring so far and looking at the forecast it is going to stay mild. Whereas you guys have had it real cold this year from January up until now pretty much, similar to how we had it last year. So the roles have reversed. Again, the exact opposite weather to you guys. It looks like more cold records are going to tumble in the American northwest in the coming days. I have noticed that when the east coast of America is above average, so are we here in Western Europe, at least usually, which is bad news for the western US as it is like a seesaw effect. There are some quite noticeable patterns apparent. 

BE4E446A-75EB-4798-AC4B-4B23AF52FED0.png.739c67ccb20dff5eb616887cead44836.png

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Chester B

I've had a few people say the same thing, it seems like we are getting the type of weather Europe had last year.  I've only been paying attention the last few years but it does appear to be a trend of opposites.  I'm sure some weather people could elaborate better.  

I'm still holding out hope that we're going to snap out of this funk and get back on track.  I'd be happy with average temps at this point.  I think precipitation is pretty much average so far this year so at least we have that.

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UK_Palms

@Chester B Your cold winter and spring is probably down to back to back La Nina events, which cools down the sea temperature in the western Pacific. It can lead to colder weather on the west coast of the America's especially outside of summer. It also happened last year too and was probably just less noticeable, whereas a second occurrence in back to back years is probably having a cumulative effect now. As you can see, the sea temperature is running considerably below average off the west coast of the America's. Central America is somewhat spared.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.jpg.557f01c3b1761f7bdd0071a5ae960ae3.jpg

 

This won't last forever though and will have to change back at some point to neutral or El Nino conditions, when sea temperatures return to normal. The current cycle started in July-August last year, so it will probably end in the next few months. There are signs it may be declining now, which means it would be back to neutral by June. There is always the possibility of a 3rd successive La Nina event then developing a month or so after, since some periods last 5-6 years, alternating between La Nina and neutral with no El Nino warming events.

oni1990.thumb.jpg.f42b6f8749987073920892abe8906be0.jpg

 

La Nina to a lesser degree also causes the Atlantic to cool down as well. This can cause a knock of effect in the way of cooler temperatures in Europe, especially during the colder months. 2010-2011 was a bitterly cold period here in the UK with the worst December on record, followed by an awful summer in 2011. That was a very strong La Nina period.

Often La Nina years seem to produce poor summers over here, such as last summer (2021) and the summer of 2011, which followed the December 2010 freeze. Hopefully it trends back to El Nino conditions by mid-summer, otherwise I suspect a colder Atlantic will really impact western Europe next winter, as well as this coming summer potntially.

 

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Silas_Sancona
8 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

@Chester B Your cold winter and spring is probably down to back to back La Nina events, which cools down the sea temperature in the western Pacific. It can lead to colder weather on the west coast of the America's especially outside of summer. It also happened last year too and was probably just less noticeable, whereas a second occurrence in back to back years is probably having a cumulative effect now. As you can see, the sea temperature is running considerably below average off the west coast of the America's. Central America is somewhat spared.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.jpg.557f01c3b1761f7bdd0071a5ae960ae3.jpg

 

This won't last forever though and will have to change back at some point to neutral or El Nino conditions, when sea temperatures return to normal. The current cycle started in July-August last year, so it will probably end in the next few months. There are signs it may be declining now, which means it would be back to neutral by June. There is always the possibility of a 3rd successive La Nina event then developing a month or so after, since some periods last 5-6 years, alternating between La Nina and neutral with no El Nino warming events.

oni1990.thumb.jpg.f42b6f8749987073920892abe8906be0.jpg

 

La Nina to a lesser degree also causes the Atlantic to cool down as well. This can cause a knock of effect in the way of cooler temperatures in Europe, especially during the colder months. 2010-2011 was a bitterly cold period here in the UK with the worst December on record, followed by an awful summer in 2011. That was a very strong La Nina period.

Often La Nina years seem to produce poor summers over here, such as last summer (2021) and the summer of 2011, which followed the December 2010 freeze. Hopefully it trends back to El Nino conditions by mid-summer, otherwise I suspect a colder Atlantic will really impact western Europe next winter, as well as this coming summer potntially.

 

Only partially correct... La Nina can cause cooler / wetter winters for the Pac. N.W. for sure  ..but not all of the U.S. western states. ( exact opposite down this way )

What really effects temps in the Pacific Northwest?  Whatever phase the PDO is in, which, as you can see on the map, is in a neutral, leaning negative phase atm ..Where warmer water in the Pacific sits off Japan, vs. hugging the West Coast of the U.S. 

When negative, the Pac. N.W. is often cooler, Compounding the effects of La Nina ( strong negative cycles esp. ) . Opposite can occur when the PDO in the positive phase ( especially during significant El Nino cycles )

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JohnAndSancho

Meanwhile, in East Texas, Swamp Booty Season is definitely here. Wild. 

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Hutch

It has been crappy...i didn't get the snow Chester....but rain mixed with snow...its slowly moderating though...52 yesterday 54 today here but if clouds come in it drops 3 or 4 degrees..back to around 60 this weekend ..fingers crossed last half of April looks to warm up nicely!!

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Hutch

Regardless...Canary continues to grow ...and flower a bit slower but still opening flower pods...

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Hutch

A few more photos....heavy hail earlier

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Hutch

One more pic 

0414221905.jpg

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Jesse PNW
2 hours ago, Hutch said:

Regardless...Canary continues to grow ...and flower a bit slower but still opening flower pods...

Those CIDP's sure seem like freight trains to me. 

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Hutch

It's in good shape ...and it's been a pretty crazy winter NW standard wise ...0414221929_HDR.thumb.jpg.fa46ab20b4660a5156723c1f3ee5e10f.jpg

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UK_Palms

Are the trees in leaf yet in the PNW or has it been delayed quite a bit? I could imagine emerging buds would have been stalled compared to recent years due to the cold winter and spring? That was certainly the case last year here, when we had an almost identical start to the year. I think it took until early May for everything to fully be in leaf properly. Whereas this year everything is almost fully in leaf here already, 3 weeks earlier than last year.

I also see it is now likely that La Niña will continue through the summer now. I am convinced this, along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, will both continue to impact the spring and possibly the summer too, both in the Pacific and Atlantic. It’s something to watch at least. I mean both factors can’t not have an effect on temps. PDA is decreasing though as Silas mentioned. It’s this second successive La Niña, in as many years, which may potentially cause further problems. 

Edited by UK_Palms

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Chester B
5 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Are the trees in leaf yet in the PNW or has it been delayed quite a bit? I could imagine emerging buds would have been stalled compared to recent years due to the cold winter and spring? That was certainly the case last year here, when we had an almost identical start to the year. I think it took until early May for everything to fully be in leaf properly. Whereas this year everything is almost fully in leaf here already, 3 weeks earlier than last year.

The trees have leaves and that proved to be a major problem with the weight of the wet heavy snow.  Trees were down everywhere, over 50,000 without power and at least one death from falling branches.  Some roads are still closed even a few days later as they are still cleaning up.  I feel like the trees are right on schedule, but obviously the snow wasn't.

Yesterday we had another day filled with rain, snow, hail and graupel.  At least we're now back into the 50's (10C+) again but another rainy cold week ahead.  Still far below normal temps.  Even had light frost last night.  Bad winter and spring this year.

Edited by Chester B

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UK_Palms
2 hours ago, Chester B said:

The trees have leaves and that proved to be a major problem with the weight of the wet heavy snow.  Trees were down everywhere, over 50,000 without power and at least one death from falling branches.  Some roads are still closed even a few days later as they are still cleaning up.  I feel like the trees are right on schedule, but obviously the snow wasn't.

Yesterday we had another day filled with rain, snow, hail and graupel.  At least we're now back into the 50's (10C+) again but another rainy cold week ahead.  Still far below normal temps.  Even had light frost last night.  Bad winter and spring this year.

It's eerily similar to what we experienced here in the UK last year. In mid-April 2021 I had a dusting of snow too and freezing temps like you, whereas mid-April this year it has been warm, sunny and dry with today reaching a balmy 24.6C / 76F here. For the past few days now the weather really has been faultless for April, unlike last year when I also went through an abnormally cold winter followed by one of the coldest springs on record, if not the coldest ever. Very reminiscent of what you guys are going through now.

April 2021 was freezing here and absolute crap. Almost certainly the coldest April on record for me. It was probably colder than you guys have had it lately, although we were also drier with less snow than you too. That April racked up 202 hours of sunshine at Heathrow airport and 255 hours of sunshine at Camborne & Tiree in Cornwall. Radiation frost after radiation frost at night as a consequence. That freezing April finished on a paltry 0.1 inches of precipitation here. So far this April I have already had 0.5 inches. 

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Silas_Sancona

Looks like some ares up there may stay a touch below norm for a bit longer.. Neg. temp anomalies don't look as deep / wide spread though. 

No doubt, these forecasts can flip on a dime ( ..as all longer range outlooks have been doing -almost daily- lately )

This weeks 3-4 week long range forecast discussion ( CPC ) : ** circled area discussing the temp. outlook for the PAC. N.W.

491515028_Screenshot2022-04-15at14-21-15ClimatePredictionCenter-Week3-4Outlook.thumb.png.7cb45eea2254281da0beb615171b3c87.png

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Fallen Munk

I've had a whole bunch of spear pull this winter/spring.  Too much frost and wet.  About half of my CIDP are toast.  Even a few of my trachy spear pulled.  My big Jubaea is off to a super slow start.

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Chester B
18 hours ago, Fallen Munk said:

I've had a whole bunch of spear pull this winter/spring.  Too much frost and wet.  About half of my CIDP are toast.  Even a few of my trachy spear pulled.  My big Jubaea is off to a super slow start.

That’s a real shame. As far as I can tell you always gets that much colder than me overnight.  No spear pull for me other than some lady palms. One small Butia with a crispy frond but it’s in there good and the newest frond is green. I have one Trachy that has some damage but that one for whatever reason did this last year too. 
 

I do have damage to a few tender plants and the agaves look the worst they ever have. Believe it or not my Fatsias probably look worst of all but they are now aggressively pushing new growth. 

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Trustandi

Yup, it has been a crappy spring. Let's hope we don't get another la niña winter. I will settle for a  neutral winter. 

I found that one of my blue Chamaerops Cerifera, and a small sabal brazoriensis spears pulled. 

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Fallen Munk
8 hours ago, Chester B said:

I do have damage to a few tender plants and the agaves look the worst they ever have.

My agave look great.  My big one in the front is getting huge!  And I cleaned the trunk on my fortunei.  It is also doing quite well, shaping up real nice.

IMG_20220415_103002.jpg

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Trustandi

Is that an agave americana? Did you give it any rain protection? Your skirted trachy looks cool, it reminds me of a skinny bottle palm. 

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Fallen Munk
1 hour ago, Trustandi said:

Is that an agave americana? Did you give it any rain protection? Your skirted trachy looks cool, it reminds me of a skinny bottle palm. 

Thanks!  It's an Agave parryi.  No rain protection.  It seems to love water.  The more water it gets, the bigger and fatter it is.

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Paradise Found

Just found out the the rainy season ends on April 30th every year in my city, except last year it ended on April 1.  This cool April is almost over thank goodness. 

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Chester B

Looks like we've broken into the top 10 wettest Aprils on record and we are pretty close to making the top 5.  We've already recorded over 4", and more rain in the forecast, whereas last year it was 0.4" for the entire month.

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UK_Palms
On 4/22/2022 at 5:20 PM, Chester B said:

Looks like we've broken into the top 10 wettest Aprils on record and we are pretty close to making the top 5.  We've already recorded over 4", and more rain in the forecast, whereas last year it was 0.4" for the entire month.

You've had 4 inches!? That is 20 x more rain than I have had here this month, since I am still only on 4mm (0.2 inches). I haven't had a single drop of rain for 17 days now. Although last April, which was far colder than the April you are currently having (17-18 frosts), we had even less rain here with only 0.1 inches.

It's due to cool down to below average temps here in the coming days, so you guys will probably be warming up a fair bit again. It's still staying very dry here with no chance of rainfall, but I suspect you guys will be hot and dry again during the summer, whereas we end up being cool and wet again like last year. Unless La Nina disrupts something.

There is some evidence to suggest La Nina is strengthening again, not declining. We're almost certainly going to be stuck with La Nina throughout the entirety of the summer now. A strong La Nina can definitely have complications for summers in the PNW and western Europe. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in a few months time...

 

Edited by UK_Palms
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Fallen Munk

Meanwhile my neighbors Washingtonia are getting huge while most of mine died.

Salem Washies.jpg

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Hutch

74..today...things picking up...backlash tomorrow back to 60ish....850 gfs loop is picking up on a early May heat wave ....

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Chester B

Saw on the news we're just about to crack the top 5 wettest Aprils on record and potentially could be the wettest ever.  Plus the below average temps and the coldest spring since 2011.  I have really been set back my projects, I've had to delay vacation, but gave up and took this week off.  I'll just work around the rain.  Next couple of weeks more of the same, I sure hope that heat wave shows up.

I also saw on the news the grape vines were budding out and they all got burnt by the last cold.  No leaves yet as the plants have to recover so they expect the crop to be weeks behind this year and far less quantity.  

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Paradise Found

Just heard on the news that this April was the wettest since 2011. I'll have to look up the weather reports for the month of April in 2011 and see what the rest of the months were like. 

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Chester B

It’s official this was the wettest April on record in Portland recording 5.73”. Beat the old record by half an inch. 
 

Lots of rain this week too. 

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UK_Palms

It will be interesting to see how your summer unfolds now, following several months of below average temperatures. That is bound to have a cumulative effect on SST's (sea surface temperature) and LST (land surface temperature) as we head into summer. Both land and sea temperatures are currently running below average in the PNW, and have been for quite a while, which will limit the amount of heating, certainly in the short term. May will almost certainly be cooler than average in the PNW due to that. There appears to be a longer term pattern. 

 

gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png.c978141fbb85ca70033f8db2d0270a34.png

 

La Nina is so evident on the most recent SST map...

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.bd9c9c1e03cec8c980611da69471b562.png

 

I strongly believe our summer last year in 2021 was derailed largely due to a colder than average winter, which was then followed by a near record cold spring. Land and sea temperatures were below average here from January - September last year pretty much. It really limited the amount of summer heat last year and I also attribute it to other changes as well, such as increased rainfall and more storms/volatility.

It does seem that a cold winter, followed by a cold spring, does not bode well for the impending summer, certainly in terms of temperatures. Again we are talking about a cumulative effect here. It can obviously go from one extreme to the other still (way below average to way above average) in a typical year, but sudden flips are rare after a prolonged above/below period. There is probably going to be a longer term pattern there, which was the case for us last year.

That's not to say it will definitely happen for you in the PNW though. Nothing is a certainty and the anomalies could turn on a dime, but based on previous below average winters, followed by below average springs, it usually results in a below average summer too, both in the PNW and western Europe. That seems to be especially so in La Nina year's too it appears. Now I have said that you will probably end up having another baking hot summer again.

gfs_T2ma_us_29.jpg.9e3ddb28dfb77a14dd11f6f411438d59.jpg

 

I'm just curious, but if you had to personally grade your months on a 1-10 scale so far this year, how would each month rank so far? Like for me January would probably be 7/10, February would be 6/10, March would be 6/10 and April would also be 6/10. So this year so far averages out about 6/10 for me here, which is slightly above average. For 2021, I would have rated January 3/10, February 2/10, March 6/10 and April 2/10. So the first 4 months of 2021 averaged out around 3/10 for me. I'm curious to hear your assessment of 2022 so far?

Edited by UK_Palms
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Silas_Sancona

@Chester B and the PNW Gang..  Possibly some light at the end of the Tunnel..  Enjoy it,  -if this pans out..

96146746_Screenshot2022-05-01at19-02-02GFSModel.png.4e194e4da91a7d56787522203cdeecd9.png

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UK_Palms

@Silas_Sancona The only problem is that run is for 12-13 days out. The GFS model is showing 27-28C for London on the same date, but I doubt that will come to fruition either. You can't really trust anything beyond 10 days out and anything beyond 7 days is rarely that accurate. I often see the GFS, and other models too, flip around days 5-7. Even 5 days out can be totally wrong and end up changing.

The PNW will probably get some proper warmth around mid-May, but the theme of below average temps and above average rainfall will probably last well into June due to the below average LST and SST. I had 26C in March last year, but it didn't then stop me having my coldest April on record and one of my coldest May's. Entrenched patterns tend to not disappear overnight, even if you get a brief burst of above average temps in there. 

FRuFCsXVEAAv_pH.thumb.jpg.3c39e055b707110991b8c1c41501274f.jpg

Edited by UK_Palms

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Silas_Sancona
19 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

@Silas_Sancona The only problem is that run is for 12-13 days out. The GFS model is showing 27-28C for London on the same date, but I doubt that will come to fruition either. You can't really trust anything beyond 10 days out and anything beyond 7 days is rarely that accurate. I often see the GFS, and other models too, flip around days 5-7. Even 5 days out can be totally wrong and end up changing.

The PNW will probably get some proper warmth around mid-May, but the theme of below average temps and above average rainfall will probably last well into June due to the below average LST and SST. I had 26C in March last year, but it didn't then stop me having my coldest April on record and one of my coldest May's. Entrenched patterns tend to not disappear overnight, even if you get a brief burst of above average temps in there. 

FRuFCsXVEAAv_pH.thumb.jpg.3c39e055b707110991b8c1c41501274f.jpg



What happens over across the pond,  has no bearing on what happens on this side of it..  PNW and England are very different places..   Very different things influence the WX patterns in both areas.  Simple Science.   Just because it is cold there doesn't mean it will be in Washington State.. 

..And yes, lol  Major pattern shifts can happen ..on a dime.. 


:lol:  Predictions from " Accuweather? "  = about as trustworthy as believing that Crickets can play a Guitar..

 

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UK_Palms
8 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:



What happens over across the pond,  has no bearing on what happens on this side of it..  PNW and England are very different places..   Very different things influence the WX patterns in both areas.  Simple Science.   Just because it is cold there doesn't mean it will be in Washington State.. 

..And yes, lol  Major pattern shifts can happen ..on a dime.. 


:lol:  Predictions from " Accuweather? "  = about as trustworthy as believing that Crickets can play a Guitar..

 

The point I was making was that last year I experienced an almost identical situation as the PNW, with a colder than average winter and spring. Months of below average temperatures then impacted on the subsequent summer. This seems to be more pronounced the further you are from the equator. Although it doesn’t matter where you live, months on end of below average temps will impact SST’s and LST’s and cause knock on effects moving forward. I noticed that last year, although I did say that may not necessarily be the case for them this year in the PNW. Obviously time will tell, but I think the writing is on the wall, at least in the short term for May and possibly June. 

Regarding Accuweather, I have mostly linked NOAA maps/models, which Accuweather is in agreement with. Obviously take everything with a pinch of salt, but the indicators for a continued below average period are clearly there. Let’s see how the GFS model looks in a few more days. There are signs it is already backing off a bit already. I am keeping an eye on a number of other patterns/set ups, which tell me that May in general is probably going to be colder than average across the PNW and likely wetter too, even if there is a burst of warmth in mid May. The back to back La Niña events are almost certainly to blame for that. Let’s see if I am proved wrong.

GFS currently has London down for 30C in mid-May. I seriously doubt that will happen. For some reason GFS seems to overstate temps in the 10-14 day runs, hence why I say it will probably downgrade closer to the time for both PNW and here. I know you say there is no bearing or influence on each other, but me and Chester have both noticed a yo-yo effect. It is rare for both the PNW and NW Europe to be running above or below at the exact same time, due to jet stream kinks. When they had that record heat dome we had near record June cold last year. So almost the exact opposite. One of us is usually running above and one is usually running below, so one of these two GFS outcomes is probably going to be wrong. 

F267CD1E-EF15-4C3A-ADD3-D5254C37D808.png.bcccc99727b9c11ad7c87a6eda35e90a.png

Edited by UK_Palms
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Chester B

Current predictions are showing some normal temps mid way through May, but no real warmth yet.  In comparing photos from last year I think most of the plants are 2 weeks behind.  Our trees are not fully leafed out yet, with some still sleeping.  The rhodos and azaleas have finally started blooming

image.png.9f939c193fc0a837487c4f95118dca0b.png

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Trustandi

Our Spring is cooler than normal for this year.  But I have hope for warmer temperature after Mid May. 

I remember some gardeners/nursery saying after May 15 or Mother's day the temperature should be warming up. It is generally the time to plant tomatoes, tropical, etc. 

But in June sometimes we can get slighty crappier weather. I call it "Juneuary".

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GottmitAlex
13 hours ago, Trustandi said:

 

But in June sometimes we can get slighty crappier weather. I call it "Juneuary".

June gloom.

 

 

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UK_Palms
On 5/2/2022 at 3:06 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

@Chester B and the PNW Gang..  Possibly some light at the end of the Tunnel..  Enjoy it,  -if this pans out..

96146746_Screenshot2022-05-01at19-02-02GFSModel.png.4e194e4da91a7d56787522203cdeecd9.png


A total flip on those charts as I mentioned a few days back. The GFS model is terrible when it comes to longer range projections, routinely overstating spring/summer temperatures, as evidenced here. This is what the GFS is currently showing for the exact same day (14th) and quarterly interval (00:00 hours), which you posted up 2 days ago. A total reversal. 

8A29C3DE-2A13-4E2B-A0B4-712041BD01CD.png.e400e001a8e31229dc8077ecae8f5353.png


It is pretty evident that May and probably June too will see below average temps and wetter than average conditions due to ongoing La Niña. I would expect with this current setup for it to be a back loaded summer for the PNW with the hottest and best weather perhaps coming in August and September. This isn’t an ordinary La Niña period either as we head into summer. It is to blame for colder than average SST’s which will effect land temps in coastal areas especially.

Just out of curiosity, what was summer 2010 and 2011 like in the PNW? It was a similar(ish) La Niña setup I believe, although I wouldn’t read into that much. There are too many variables at play.

Edited by UK_Palms

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Silas_Sancona
8 hours ago, UK_Palms said:


A total flip on those charts as I mentioned a few days back. The GFS model is terrible when it comes to longer range projections, routinely overstating spring/summer temperatures, as evidenced here. This is what the GFS is currently showing for the exact same day (14th) and quarterly interval (00:00 hours), which you posted up 2 days ago. A total reversal. 

8A29C3DE-2A13-4E2B-A0B4-712041BD01CD.png.e400e001a8e31229dc8077ecae8f5353.png


It is pretty evident that May and probably June too will see below average temps and wetter than average conditions due to ongoing La Niña. I would expect with this current setup for it to be a back loaded summer for the PNW with the hottest and best weather perhaps coming in August and September. This isn’t an ordinary La Niña period either as we head into summer. It is to blame for colder than average SST’s which will effect land temps in coastal areas especially.

Just out of curiosity, what was summer 2010 and 2011 like in the PNW? It was a similar(ish) La Niña setup I believe, although I wouldn’t read into that much. There are too many variables at play.

Would read through this week's blog update, esp. the fine print..  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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