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Freezing morning temps for SF/Monterey Bay areas Wk of 2/20/22


WestCoastGal

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Heads up! Winter’s still here. Just checking my Dark Sky app for this week here in SFBay/Monterey Bay area and surprised with day temps in 60s to see some morning temps forecast in the 20s for this week. Possible Snow and Hail in some areas on Tuesday. Winds look pretty calm. Here’s the NOAA/NWS Weather Bulletin posted on Dark Sky about it:

7E9F0EB1-8641-4501-911C-AAD1A943D988.thumb.jpeg.b53ad96a2409b7f647b2878d755a1e14.jpeg

Here’s text for easier reading: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ513&warncounty=CAC085&firewxzone=CAZ513&local_place1=3 Miles SE San Jose International Airport CA&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=37.3394&lon=-121.894#.YhH8-iQ74lQ

 

Zone 9b (formerly listed as Zone 9a); Sunset 14

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On 2/20/2022 at 12:24 AM, WestCoastGal said:

Heads up! Winter’s still here.

It has come right down the coast.  I think it's last West Coast stop is here in the San Diego Coastal Area over night and into the early morning.  An alert to my fellow residents.

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service SAN DIEGO CA
1217 PM PST Wed Feb 23 2022

CAZ043-240600-
/O.CON.KSGX.FR.Y.0004.220224T0800Z-220224T1600Z/
San Diego County Coastal Areas-
Including the cities of Vista, Carlsbad, and Encinitas
1217 PM PST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 30 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...San Diego County Coastal Areas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures will be in the
  areas around Oceanside just inland from the coast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
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33.0782 North -117.305 West  at 72 feet elevation

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Thanks @Tracy for the heads-up. I brought some of the plants I''m most worried about inside.

Sadly, I'm less confident in my protection efforts on the tender ones that were too big to bring inside :indifferent:
Getting a robust "plant protection plan" was something still on my "soon but not yet" list.

On a related note, is there a service (other than yourself) that can warn me when a frost is expected? With the bizarre whether swings Southern California has been having lately, it's easy to be lulled into complacency and forget to check the weather. :badday:

inside2-min.thumb.jpg.48f27df99eb4d7d59fbaf885fe325487.jpg

Stacey Wright  |  Graphic Designer

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14 hours ago, iDesign said:

is there a service (other than yourself) that can warn me when a frost is expected? With the bizarre whether swings Southern California has been having lately, it's easy to be lulled into complacency and forget to check the weather. 

I'm not aware of a service that will alert one to the weather.  Weather is such a big part of my life in business and hobbies that I'm just always checking and looking at the reports and forecasts.  I use a combination of data gathered at my business location in Chula Vista, NWS San Diego branch forecasts, UCSD's Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP),  WaveCast.com (free but requests donations), and a subscription service for wind and temps iWindsurf/iKite on a daily basis, as well as having a couple of old fashion mercury high/low thermometers in the yard.  Before the internet, I had two weather radios, on in the house and another in my auto's glove box, so I could listen to the loop of marine and agricultural forecasts.  

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33.0782 North -117.305 West  at 72 feet elevation

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Think most weather apps will send alerts whenever any kind of WX related advisories are hoisted.. Here, not unheard of to be at the grocery store / anywhere else really and suddenly hear hundreds of phones go off whenever severe storm / dust storm warnings are issued.  Not sure frost / freeze watches/ advisories would get the same attention as storm related advisories though.

As far as checking temps?. Neighborhood station readings on WX underground are the best, by far..   Trusting what the current temperature - in your neighborhood- might be  using the reading from several miles away at a NOAA registered site ( typically an Airport ) can be a gamble, esp. when flirting with freezing.  While just a couple miles away, temps in my neighborhood can be 3-5 deg warmer during such events compared to our mini- airport here in Chandler.. Add a deg or two if relying on a reading at Mesa Gateway / 2-4 deg on top of Mesa Gateway's reading if using Sky Harbor in downtown PHX. Rare, but occasionally stations in my part of Chandler will actually run slightly cooler than all three of the local NOAA reporting sites.

Btw: Posted on the " Current temp thread " but some screen shots around chosen spots in North County area this morning at 7:30am. Chandler AZ. time. Not really that bad.

On WX underground, can zoom in closer to see additional stations ( Depending on the area, there are usually more personal WX stations than what i was able to capture in this group of screen shots )

502383641_Screenshot2022-02-24at07-27-14VistaCAWeatherConditionsWeatherUnderground.png.d88b31faef88948b8a4ea4c1fe99f07a.png

1266927864_Screenshot2022-02-24at07-27-33VistaCAWeatherConditionsWeatherUnderground.png.59a837b2d26b62ff4b35db1e6f605da8.png

49854766_Screenshot2022-02-24at07-28-28VistaCAWeatherConditionsWeatherUnderground.png.f8b8db095b7a7a5f2c4c67cb814b3797.png

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24 minutes ago, Tracy said:

Weather is such a big part of my life...

I'm impressed! I need to get better at analyzing weather reports, now that I have more sensitive plants. :crying:

I was hoping there was a simple "Hey dummy, protect your vulnerable plants"  warning service that would email you when it's a particularly bad night. Perhaps I could pay you a small fee to ping me when things are bad enough to wrap the most tender plants (since I'm not far from you)? :innocent:

I do try to watch temperatures, but it sounds like "32 degrees with clear skies and moisture" is much worse than "32 degrees with dry overcast skies" (i.e. temps alone don't tell the full story). That's the part that confuses me. So much still to learn :interesting:

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Stacey Wright  |  Graphic Designer

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29 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Neighborhood station readings on WX underground are the best, by far..   Trusting what the current temperature - in your neighborhood- might be  using the reading from several miles away at a NOAA registered site ( typically an Airport ) can be a gamble, esp. when flirting with freezing. 

That's another piece of my confusion. I live right on the border of Carlsbad & Encinitas, so I check both forecasts.

- Accuweather showed this morning as 30 degrees in Carlsbad (where I technically live). Sounds pretty bad based on that alone. But Encinitas was 35 degrees, and it seems like my home's weather matches Encinitas more than Carlsbad.

- On Weather Underground the closest neighborhood station shows that it got down to 34.7 degrees last night. And that seems to be consistent with several other nearby "stations".  Does that mean I didn't actually have a "freeze" after all, and bringing in the plants wasn't necessary?

- Looking at monthly view for my closest station, it shows that the high this month was 90.7 degrees (which seems right... we had a crazy heat wave). And low was 34.7 (last night).  Here's the page for my closest station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCACARLS210/table/2022-02-24/2022-02-24/monthly

- If I now click the "Forecast for Carlsbad, CA" link on this page, will that give me a forecast based on this particular location (not Carlsbad/Encinitas generally)? If so that's probably a better place for me to be checking.  Clicking on the "10-day" tab for this station it says that tonight should be 40 degrees... so is it ok to take the tender plants back out?

Thanks for helping a weather noob.

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Stacey Wright  |  Graphic Designer

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40 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

As far as checking temps?. Neighborhood station readings on WX underground are the best, by far..   Trusting what the current temperature - in your neighborhood- might be  using the reading from several miles away at a NOAA registered site ( typically an Airport ) can be a gamble, esp. when flirting with freezing.  While just a couple miles away, temps in my neighborhood can be 3-5 deg warmer during such events compared to our mini- airport here in Chandler.. Add a deg or two if relying on a reading at Mesa Gateway / 2-4 deg on top of Mesa Gateway's reading if using Sky Harbor in downtown PHX. Rare, but occasionally stations in my part of Chandler will actually run slightly cooler than all three of the local NOAA reporting sites.

I think that's why I use so many tools, as each has it's specific function although they do overlap.  NWS "forecast discussion" and WaveCast's Nathan Cool, both provide information on what is coming down the road so to speak.  I have come to like WaveCast's Nathan Cool's reports for our Southern California weather because he discusses the different models and both strengths and weaknesses in the models.  Living on the coast, surf forecasting conditions for swell, water temps and wind all play into what plays out on the land with marine layers, clouds and ultimately the high/low temps.  Other tools can be used for real time.  The best "local" real time sensor is something in your own yard, which you can supplement with things like Weather Underground.  Since I'm looking at additional data close by, which I can get from iW/iK and CDIP, I don't need to supplement with Weather Underground because there is an overlap.

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33.0782 North -117.305 West  at 72 feet elevation

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5 minutes ago, iDesign said:

That's another piece of my confusion. I live right on the border of Carlsbad & Encinitas, so I check both forecasts.

- Accuweather showed this morning as 30 degrees in Carlsbad (where I technically live). Sounds pretty bad based on that alone. But Encinitas was 35 degrees, and it seems like my home's weather matches Encinitas more than Carlsbad.

- On Weather Underground the closest neighborhood station shows that it got down to 34.7 degrees last night. And that seems to be consistent with several other nearby "stations".  Does that mean I didn't actually have a "freeze" after all, and bringing in the plants wasn't necessary?

- Looking at monthly view for my closest station, it shows that the high this month was 90.7 degrees (which seems right... we had a crazy heat wave). And low was 34.7 (last night).  Here's the page for my closest station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCACARLS210/table/2022-02-24/2022-02-24/monthly

- If I now click the "Forecast for Carlsbad, CA" link on this page, will that give me a forecast based on this particular location (not Carlsbad/Encinitas generally)? If so that's probably a better place for me to be checking.  Clicking on the "10-day" tab for this station it says that tonight should be 40 degrees... so is it ok to take the tender plants back out?

Thanks for helping a weather noob.

:greenthumb:  You're good :)    ..And yes, lol pretty crazy that it went from a stretch of summer - like high 80s / 90F readings just a few days ago to lower 30s out there..  Hopefully these wild back and forth temp. swings will settle down soon.. ( just stay warm, lol )

I myself put the most trust in the neighborhood stations within a mile or two of the house.. and use surrounding stations as kind of a gauge..  Some will always run cooler/ warmer depending on how/ where placed but, especially as a whole, if a majority of stations within 5 miles are reading ..say in the 32-35-ish range, then i can trust i also saw the same readings.. So often a station or two will, for some reason, go offline ( here at least, no idea why ) and you'll have to look at the next nearest station.

This morning, for example, there was some frost in open sky spots out front, and a skim of ice / slushy stuff forming on a puddle atop a cold frame i have up right now out back.. No noticeable frost elsewhere out there in shaded spots ..also open to the sky  ..just up on the roof / top of the back block wall..

The one thing to keep in mind if/ when checking either Accuweather or WX Underground through the day, their forecasts can change a bit, several times (  WX Underground's 10 day esp.  ) during the day in fact..  

Next week's forecast here is a good example.. We're supposed to head back into the 80s starting Tuesday ( if that doesn't change ), but, exactly how warm it may end up in the Wednesday / Friday time frame has wavered back and forth between 85 and 88 on WX Underground,  ..and 85-89F on Accuweather ( which i personally find the least accurate when gauging forecasts, overall )

Predicted lows can also waver a bit.. Why, not totally sure but imagine it has to do with minute to minute data fed to the site.. ( Just a guess, lol ) In any event, as long as there aren't any dramatic swings in the  " general range " temperatures predicted,  i can trust the forecasts, ..at least 2 or 3 days out.. 

As far as bringing stuff in / out? i really don't have too many things that are super- sensitive, but did bring in my Desert Rose(s) / some seedling stuff back in December ..Not really because of the cold dips this winter ( Most can survive brief dips into the low 30s since they're typically dormant / leafless.. and get no water ) ..It is the wet /cold soil combo that can kill them, and some other things.
That said, have a few larger things many would probably bring in or shelter up closer to the house that i leave out and rarely have any cold related issues with. My two Coccothrinax i started from seed a few years back, that are in 3gals atm, have been outside under the stars all winter.. A touch yellow, but no ill effects from what cold they have seen.. Are even pushing new leaves atm.  Not sure what sp. since seed i'd collected ( while still in FL ) got mixed up - my fault,  haha..

As far as bringing sensitive stuff back out.. I'll wait another couple weeks for the Adenium ( Desert Rose ) ..but wait another day or two to plant some new stuff that came in the mail yesterday.

Remember, frost can occur, even when it only hits 37-39..  Best gauge as far as if frost will occur is to watch the Dew Point.. Generally speaking ofcourse, bigger gap between the low temp and dew point reading at that time,  ..less chance for frost..  When the two meet ..say 33F temp. / 33% dew point.. frost will be more likely to form.  Here's a good example..

708245135_Screenshot2022-02-24at12-43-18ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.0fa0f7183cf03ddc03533098d2f305d0.png


Notice where the dark green line / temperature (  red line ) meet / are within a deg. or 2 of each other in today's slot? classic indication of frost potential.. By Saturday, as the dew point drops / air dries out,  low may hit 38 Sunday morning, but the dew point is 10 deg lower ..less chance to see frost..  Humidity ( lime green line in the graph ) also factors in.. Want that to be low as well on cold mornings.. A good rule of thumb is the morning or two after a good rain is always the most vulnerable time to see a frost / freeze.

Essentially, many plants can often tolerate a few deg. more cold ..if it is a dry cold, esp. the more mature / healthy they are.  That is by no means fool proof, plenty of things won't tolerate any cold obviously  ..but a pretty reliable statement.. 

That said, If you have really small seedlings / things with tender leaves, maybe wait until your lows are above 40 to bring back out..

Obviously, conditions there are a bit different than mine ( you have higher humidity, usually anyway ) but the above advise can apply anywhere..

Hope this helps...
 

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19 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Remember, frost can occur, even when it only hits 37-39..  Best gauge as far as if frost will occur is to watch the Dew Point.. Generally speaking ofcourse, bigger gap between the low temp and dew point reading at that time,  ..less chance for frost..  When the two meet ..say 33F temp. / 33% dew point.. frost will be more likely to form.  Here's a good example..
 

Thanks so much! Your explanation of Dew Point & Humidity (with example) should be posted in a "Weather for Newbies" FAQ somewhere! :greenthumb:

Also a great tip about being extra watchful after it rains. That's relatively easy for those of us in So. CA, as it doesn't rain nearly as much as in FL & HI.  I'll try to be more aware of temperature when it's wet... I cringed hearing my neighbor's sprinklers turning on at 10pm last night during a freeze warning :excl:

Thanks again for your help... fascinating stuff. I'm sure most people figure understanding terms like "dew point" make you a nerd. Wait, does that mean? :crying: (j/k - I already know I'm a huge nerd... bring it on!)

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Stacey Wright  |  Graphic Designer

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1 hour ago, Tracy said:

I think that's why I use so many tools, as each has it's specific function although they do overlap.  NWS "forecast discussion" and WaveCast's Nathan Cool, both provide information on what is coming down the road so to speak.  I have come to like WaveCast's Nathan Cool's reports for our Southern California weather because he discusses the different models and both strengths and weaknesses in the models.  Living on the coast, surf forecasting conditions for swell, water temps and wind all play into what plays out on the land with marine layers, clouds and ultimately the high/low temps.  Other tools can be used for real time.  The best "local" real time sensor is something in your own yard, which you can supplement with things like Weather Underground.  Since I'm looking at additional data close by, which I can get from iW/iK and CDIP, I don't need to supplement with Weather Underground because there is an overlap.

Will have to check out WaveCast's info..  Read over NOAA discussions -when applicable.. ours / Tucson's..  S.D, L.A/ Santa Barbra. SF Bay Area,  Hanford/ San Joaquin Valley,  ..Weather West / Daniel Swain's blog updates/ twitter posts..  Other blogs / webcasts from the local gurus ( Mike Leuthold, Mike Crimmins & CLIMAS, Christopher Castro, John Henz ..and his son, who works for the county flood control district here ) for local insights, esp. during Monsoon season.. And of course some of the other folks who deal with far wider reaching insight..

A lot of information, but always helps to stay a step or two ahead..  As best as anyone can anyway...  Have found any overlap is usually pretty easy to tease out between the different " thoughts ' or data..

Do need to get a couple Thermoms for the yard,  at least until i decide on whether or not to install an actual WX station here..  Would like to see how the Olive out front influences summer heat below it's canopy ( for future Orchid trials, of course :D )

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42 minutes ago, iDesign said:

Thanks so much! Your explanation of Dew Point & Humidity (with example) should be posted in a "Weather for Newbies" FAQ somewhere! :greenthumb:

Also a great tip about being extra watchful after it rains. That's relatively easy for those of us in So. CA, as it doesn't rain nearly as much as in FL & HI.  I'll try to be more aware of temperature when it's wet... I cringed hearing my neighbor's sprinklers turning on at 10pm last night during a freeze warning :excl:

Thanks again for your help... fascinating stuff. I'm sure most people figure understanding terms like "dew point" make you a nerd. Wait, does that mean? :crying: (j/k - I already know I'm a huge nerd... bring it on!)

Lol, :greenthumb: .. Completely agree.. Just :D whenever someone has called me a WX nerd.. Badge of honor honestly..

Have passed a yard where their sprinklers running while a neighbor's yard was caked in ice ( ..was back in FL. several years ago ) ..and a few times here when it was raining. Very wasteful for sure.

FL. ..Very different weather critter compared to S. Cal ..or even this part of the world.  As you know, most of the frost freeze events we can see are related to heat radiating away on cold/ still nights.. In FL. you know you're in trouble when a storm blows in ( ..literally ) and the temp drops quite quickly as the Squall line, ..a line of heavy rain / Thunderstorms typically laid out just ahead of where a Cold front is pushing through, is passing by.  " Advective " frost/ freeze events are much less common here in the west.

If only we had weather like Hawaii ..One can wish, right?

 

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