Jump to content

Record breaking warmth for New Year's in Europe?

Recommended Posts


I may have to crack out the shorts next week for work. My written rule is that anything over 16C / 61F is typically shorts and t-shirt weather in my line of work. Otherwise I will overheat if I am working in jeans and a hoodie inside the warehouse. Those forecasted nighttime temperatures are ridiculous as well for 51N during the last week of December. I would expect nighttime lows of 13-14C in July, let alone late December. Some model runs are putting the nighttime lows at 15C for Wednesday and Thursday following a high of 18C / 64F on Wednesday! :bemused:



14C at 850hPa translates to about 17-18C at ground level. It will be interesting to see just how warm it gets, especially if some eastern places also benefit from a Foehn effect too. Potentially 20C / 68F in a few eastern locations, although I find that hard to believe during the last week of December at 51-54N. Probably 18C maximum. If we had a setup like this in July it would bring 35C+ temperatures. 



The consistency of the ensemble runs is remarkable! I have never seen a set of ensemble runs so consistent like this. It looks like this warm/mild spell is nailed on now. 


Here's the ECMWF for Wednesday, which is supposedly going to be the warmest day, although it could be any of Wednesday, Thursday or Friday in theory.



UKMET pumping higher pressure and warm air up from Africa, although the airflow into western Europe and the UK is coming up from the Canary islands specifically.



The GFS model puts Jan 1st / New Years day as the warmest day potentially...



Here's the ECMWF model for New Years day. Both setups looking very similar. Potentially record breaking in many places on the western half of the continent. 



December records, and possibly winter records too, may tumble next week in Spain, UK, France, Netherlands, Germany etc. Watch this space. Daytime maxima and nighttime minima both at threat.

  • Like 4

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Palms, very mild on this side of the pond too, NJ,  a bit shy of 41 N. lat. here. Could also be record warm on New Years's 60 F., nights have mostly been above freezing. It was also a record-breaking summer here in terms of precip, about 30 inches (762 mm) from July to September.  I see they are calling for some very cold temps in Quebec in the extended (sometimes I check their weather to see what might be incoming), I don't understand temps in Celsius, so I converted the temps to Fahrenheit, and it felt even ruder.  Fortunately, the Canadians are being good neighbors and  keeping the dam! barn door CLOSED for now! And last year, when they sent the temps down to 0 F. on the GULF OF MEXICO, my absolute minimum was 14 above, so I am not complaining, and love Canadians!   Add 46 degrees F. to my normal,  January max temperature of 40 F. (in my continental climate with a maritime influence), and you get 86F for a daily, average summer high on a typical day, it will be different with a January baseline of 50-60F. And last year, when temps down to 0 F. on the GULF OF MEXICO, my absolute minimum was 14 above, so I am not complaining. We live in interesting times, I guess.

Edited by oasis371
  • Like 1

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

The warm front is starting to sweep through now. I was down to 7C / 44F at 10pm, however I am back up to 10C / 50F by 2am here. The temperature should keep rising from now until sunrise with a potential high of 16-17C (low 60's F) in places. Definitely not your typical New Year's forecast there. I probably won't go below 10C / 50F again until Monday next week now. 



It seems New years Day may potentially be the warmest day...





The ECMWF model at it's furthest stage is still looking pretty favourable for the UK...



There will probably be a brief cool down to slightly below average temps next week, although the extended range GFS model is looking pretty good right into mid-January...


Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

The warm spell has pretty much finished now as normal service begins to resume. I'm currently at 8.6C / 45F at 2am here and I'm only expecting a high of 10C / 50F tomorrow. A number of records have been broken over the past 3-4 days, both in the UK and the rest of Europe. It is certainly the mildest New Years period in European history. 

Starting with the UK records, we experienced our warmest New Years Eve on record with a temperature of 16.5C (62F) being recorded overnight in Bala, Wales at 53N.  


A new record high minima set for both New Years Day and also the whole month of January in England with a low of 13.2C / 56F at Chivenor on 01/01/22. 


A new record high max for New Years day (01/01/22) for both England and the entire UK with St James Park in London reaching 16.3C / 61F. 


It looks like a high of 19.3C / 67F was recorded overnight at 2am on 01/01/22 in northwest Wales due to Foehn winds. It isn't an 'official' Met Office station, however it is a professional station operated by the retired Meteorologist David Lee. Derek Brockway wouldn't report on it unless he was confident it was accurate, despite it not being 'official'.  




The Lake District Ski webcam says it all really. You can't go skiing anywhere in the UK right now, despite it being January. The lowest temperature recorded in the UK on 01/01/22 was 5.9C / 43F in the Scottish Highlands and daytime temps in mountainous regions were reaching 12C+ in places. Nowhere in the UK has reached freezing for 4-5 consecutive nights now. 


Lots of different records have been tumbling...


Very mild on Saturday night as well into Sunday...


UK minima - 01/01/22



UK maxima - 01/01/22



European minima - 01/01/22



European maxima - 01/01/22



France was by far one of the warmest places in recent days with numerous records being beaten. Temperatures reached as high as 26C in the southwest Basque region on New Years Day. 



Exceptional heat in Spain and Portugal over the New Year period as well with some stations reaching 25-26C (77-79F) on New Year's day. As previously mentioned, the Basque region of southwest France and northeast Spain was by far the warmest region in recent days. They were very warm on New Years Eve as well. 3-4 days of exceptional warmth in total. 



I went 100+ hours above 12C / 54F here, which may be a new winter record in itself for the UK. The 16.1C high and 12.9C lows are definitely records for me here. Not surprising the bees and butterflies are coming out. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands of records that have been set in Europe in recent days. The UK, Spain, France and Germany alone have all broken so many different records. Belgium, Austria and Switzerland also breaking many records. More updates to follow. 


Edited by UK_Palms

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Similar Content

    • UK_Palms
      By UK_Palms
      Apparently this has developed into a thing now in the UK. Well southern England anyway... just crazy...
      Ashley Road, Ryde

      New Esplanade Court, Paignton

      The White House / Cary Court, Torquay

      The Earls Court pool CIDP is about 15-20 foot now, but it is dwarfed by the 30 foot Robusta. That CIDP will start putting on 3 foot of growth per year now though at that size, like the others. 

      Splashdown Quaywest waterpark in Paignton has a lot of CIDP's growing there, which will be as big as some of the others I have posted in another decade or so...

      North Ford Road, Dartmouth

      Anyone got any photos of big CIDP's towering over pools? These UK ones are a work in progress still obviously. I know a lot of people are against the idea of growing CIDP's next to pools and having them tower over eventually like the ones in the first picture I posted. I know some people feel the same with Washies and many other big/tall palms. Personally, I love the look of it. 
    • UK_Palms
      By UK_Palms
      Well as we transition from winter to summer, I think this probably warrants a post. Some devastating bush fires on Saturday evening in northwest England. It's like something you would expect to see in Australia or Greece during their summer. I'm now hearing that a cigarette butt may have caused this inferno below near Liverpool! An entire nature reserve lost and 800 people evacuated from their homes.
      How the actual hell does a 'wetland' catch on fire in March!? 
      This is crazy...
      The scale of the damage on Sunday morning
      As if that isn't enough, another fire was absolutely raging in Cumbria as well on Saturday. Language warning on this one but the video is absolutely crazy for northern England in March. I suggest you mute the sound before you play the video. This looks like the Hollywood hills during fire season.
      There was another one burning in Derby on Saturday night as well...
      Here's another one burning away in Mannings Heath...
      Another on Shawforth Moor...
      A forest fire in Oldham, Manchester in early hours of Sunday morning too
      Wildfire at Dawns Glaw in Wales on Sunday...
      Northern England must have been the most fire-active place in the world on Saturday 19th March 2022. Over 20 separate fires recorded this weekend now. I know Texas is having them as well.
      Lots of dry weather coming up now as we go into the warmer, drier period. April's have become exceptionally dry in recent years averaging just 0.1 inches. It could be a bad fire season this year. The peak isn't usually until about June, with fire season typically running from April - September. In recent years May and June have seen the worst fires with some in July. It may have started earlier this year due to the drier than average autumn/fall and winter. It will be interesting to see how this develops going into April.

    • UK_Palms
      By UK_Palms
      Right, so this has pretty much come out of nowhere over the past 24-48 hours. Two major Atlantic storms are due to barrage into us this week with the first less severe one making landfall on Wednesday evening, affecting northern areas more. However the second more severe storm is due to hit central England with extremely violent wind speeds affecting the whole of the UK. That second storm is the one I am worried about down here in southern England. Potentially 100mph+ winds in the pipeline, looking at some of the models. 
      This is the first, and less severe, storm Dudley that is due to hit Scotland and northern England on Wednesday. This will still bring widespread disruption for most of the UK...

      Here's the second storm. This map looks real nasty, so hopefully it doesn't verify.  The UKV model is predicting 110-115mph winds off the coast of Wales and southwest England as Eunice makes landfall with category 2 hurricane wind speeds. I have 70mph gusts forecast for me here at 6am, before it even properly arrives. 

      The DWD Icon model is terrifying. 80-90mph winds for me here at 3pm on Friday. 100mph off the southeast coast of England. Again, hopefully this model does not verify either. 

      Potentially 130mph winds off the southeast coast of Ireland and UK. That is category 4 hurricane strength winds! Heaven forbid it makes landfall at that strength. 
      Worryingly there appears to be a third, even bigger storm building up behind the two others...
      There seems to be multiple scenarios and it could potentially be downgraded, or even upgraded further yet still. Some really worrying runs appearing in the models. 
      This needs to go in the bin/trash. Record wind speeds are going to be getting set in the southeast on Friday if this materialises. Potentially 100+ mph winds just southeast of London.

      The French Met are commenting on it, so you know things are serious. I hope those wind speeds are kmh and not mph!!!!
      London has a high of 17C / 63F forecast for Wednesday, but make no mistake it will still be overcast and windy as storm Dudley crashes into northern England and Scotland. The hurricane force winds won't arrive until Friday (black triangle) for the south of England, when storm Eunice makes landfall. Hopefully it gets downgraded between now and then... 

    • UK_Palms
      By UK_Palms
      This is certainly an interesting one... a huge Chinese Doll plant/tree growing in northeast London, complete with flowers. A quick bit of research suggests they are hardy from zones 10-12 and typically used as a houseplant, however I suspect they are a bit hardier than that actually, given this particular area of London is probably 9b, although it could be a 10a zone there at street level. This thing must be at least 25-30 foot in height and it seems to be flowering okay as well. You can clearly see the white trumpets on it...

      Does anyone know what the growing range is for these in north America? As in like the cut-off points on the east and west coasts for it? I haven't seen this in Europe before and I am trying to determine it's true hardiness rating. Maybe these are actually zone 9 trees? Nonetheless the size of this specimen is pretty impressive if they are supposedly cut back to ground level by 20F in true subtropical climates. It means it hasn't got anywhere near that cold in that part of London for years, if not decades. I don't know enough about this particular species to assess the true hardiness rating though. 
    • UK_Palms
      By UK_Palms
      So far to date, this winter storm is undoubtedly the biggest event so far in Europe this season. Excluding the unseasonably warm spell for western and central Europe back in late December / early January, there hasn't been much else for us to talk about. However, this snowfall event is certainly significant and more than likely record breaking for Greece and Turkey. Northern Syria got hit pretty bad too, as did eastern Europe in general. I certainly don't recall many of these areas getting hit this bad before. It must be the worst snow storm to hit the Med region in several decades, surely?
      Starting with Greece, this was Athens on Monday afternoon, before things got real bad there...
      However this is Athens tonight, after it snowed all day long... absolutely crazy scenes!
      The islands in the Greek Med got hit as well, especially Mykonos...
      The honeymoon island of Santorini like you have never seen it before...
      Turkey also got hit hard. Check out these scenes in Istanbul! 2-3 foot of snow in places...
      This is one of the main highways into Istanbul...
      This same weather system has dumped a lot of snow on northern Syria as well. There are literally millions of refugees that are living in tents with blizzards and -5C temps...
      Here's the system responsible...
  • Create New...