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Record breaking warmth for New Year's in Europe?

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UK_Palms

I may have to crack out the shorts next week for work. My written rule is that anything over 16C / 61F is typically shorts and t-shirt weather in my line of work. Otherwise I will overheat if I am working in jeans and a hoodie inside the warehouse. Those forecasted nighttime temperatures are ridiculous as well for 51N during the last week of December. I would expect nighttime lows of 13-14C in July, let alone late December. Some model runs are putting the nighttime lows at 15C for Wednesday and Thursday following a high of 18C / 64F on Wednesday! :bemused:

1496357135_Screenshot2021-12-25at13_00_34.thumb.png.464212cc778db7bbbc1458d64afc31be.png

 

14C at 850hPa translates to about 17-18C at ground level. It will be interesting to see just how warm it gets, especially if some eastern places also benefit from a Foehn effect too. Potentially 20C / 68F in a few eastern locations, although I find that hard to believe during the last week of December at 51-54N. Probably 18C maximum. If we had a setup like this in July it would bring 35C+ temperatures. 

FHX5sgJXoAkKHX6.jpg.414b720f58eaf69995d5268e5335f6a1.jpg

 

The consistency of the ensemble runs is remarkable! I have never seen a set of ensemble runs so consistent like this. It looks like this warm/mild spell is nailed on now. 

FHdCW5kXwAEkwmZ.thumb.png.065faa0192f7cbc7b9829588db78767c.png

Here's the ECMWF for Wednesday, which is supposedly going to be the warmest day, although it could be any of Wednesday, Thursday or Friday in theory.

ecmwf_T850a_eu_5.jpg.64ea62cae7812f2e291335f7d74b0713.jpg

 

UKMET pumping higher pressure and warm air up from Africa, although the airflow into western Europe and the UK is coming up from the Canary islands specifically.

UKMHDOPEU12_126_1.jpg.4ffb71b6be20230a7589501c6b6acf98.jpg

 

The GFS model puts Jan 1st / New Years day as the warmest day potentially...

gfs_T850a_eu_30.jpg.7e51191c4bbcad248f154996f48b1ef4.jpg

 

Here's the ECMWF model for New Years day. Both setups looking very similar. Potentially record breaking in many places on the western half of the continent. 

ecmwf_T850a_eu_855.jpg.f692960ee9826a67ba93614c477a1b2c.jpg

 

December records, and possibly winter records too, may tumble next week in Spain, UK, France, Netherlands, Germany etc. Watch this space. Daytime maxima and nighttime minima both at threat.

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oasis371

UK Palms, very mild on this side of the pond too, NJ,  a bit shy of 41 N. lat. here. Could also be record warm on New Years's 60 F., nights have mostly been above freezing. It was also a record-breaking summer here in terms of precip, about 30 inches (762 mm) from July to September.  I see they are calling for some very cold temps in Quebec in the extended (sometimes I check their weather to see what might be incoming), I don't understand temps in Celsius, so I converted the temps to Fahrenheit, and it felt even ruder.  Fortunately, the Canadians are being good neighbors and  keeping the dam! barn door CLOSED for now! And last year, when they sent the temps down to 0 F. on the GULF OF MEXICO, my absolute minimum was 14 above, so I am not complaining, and love Canadians!   Add 46 degrees F. to my normal,  January max temperature of 40 F. (in my continental climate with a maritime influence), and you get 86F for a daily, average summer high on a typical day, it will be different with a January baseline of 50-60F. And last year, when temps down to 0 F. on the GULF OF MEXICO, my absolute minimum was 14 above, so I am not complaining. We live in interesting times, I guess.

 
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UK_Palms

The warm front is starting to sweep through now. I was down to 7C / 44F at 10pm, however I am back up to 10C / 50F by 2am here. The temperature should keep rising from now until sunrise with a potential high of 16-17C (low 60's F) in places. Definitely not your typical New Year's forecast there. I probably won't go below 10C / 50F again until Monday next week now. 

444154905_Screenshot2021-12-28at20_11_05.thumb.png.58ef07e04fb6acde33c4cf5bb457f081.png

 

It seems New years Day may potentially be the warmest day...

FHom4G9XMAw5UwY.jpg.0d6d50c26d3550f9bcbc630b7611701b.jpg

 

 

 

The ECMWF model at it's furthest stage is still looking pretty favourable for the UK...

ecmwf_T850a_eu_105.jpg.d504355c35a732f5f1c005b61d3b4d59.jpg

 

There will probably be a brief cool down to slightly below average temps next week, although the extended range GFS model is looking pretty good right into mid-January...

gfs_T850a_eu_6565.jpg.0ab02ba14ff029af7c4953e5b97b40c1.jpg

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UK_Palms

The warm spell has pretty much finished now as normal service begins to resume. I'm currently at 8.6C / 45F at 2am here and I'm only expecting a high of 10C / 50F tomorrow. A number of records have been broken over the past 3-4 days, both in the UK and the rest of Europe. It is certainly the mildest New Years period in European history. 

Starting with the UK records, we experienced our warmest New Years Eve on record with a temperature of 16.5C (62F) being recorded overnight in Bala, Wales at 53N.  

 

A new record high minima set for both New Years Day and also the whole month of January in England with a low of 13.2C / 56F at Chivenor on 01/01/22. 

 

A new record high max for New Years day (01/01/22) for both England and the entire UK with St James Park in London reaching 16.3C / 61F. 

 

It looks like a high of 19.3C / 67F was recorded overnight at 2am on 01/01/22 in northwest Wales due to Foehn winds. It isn't an 'official' Met Office station, however it is a professional station operated by the retired Meteorologist David Lee. Derek Brockway wouldn't report on it unless he was confident it was accurate, despite it not being 'official'.  

182665366_Screenshot2022-01-02at02_24_06.thumb.png.1dd6b6d0b234e93818850720ed341960.png

936756503_Screenshot2022-01-02at02_26_25.thumb.png.5b6a1e941d0438e89c128a25e15a20aa.png

 

The Lake District Ski webcam says it all really. You can't go skiing anywhere in the UK right now, despite it being January. The lowest temperature recorded in the UK on 01/01/22 was 5.9C / 43F in the Scottish Highlands and daytime temps in mountainous regions were reaching 12C+ in places. Nowhere in the UK has reached freezing for 4-5 consecutive nights now. 

 

Lots of different records have been tumbling...

 

Very mild on Saturday night as well into Sunday...

 

UK minima - 01/01/22

1535965271_01012022-MintempUK.thumb.png.6b7f25f8c2154cd4337dc817842601dd.png

 

UK maxima - 01/01/22

37811989_01012022-Maxtemp.thumb.jpg.055327d67c5ee959042d890ce2a69ab1.jpg

 

European minima - 01/01/22

1335686828_01012022-Europemintemp.thumb.jpg.c5f2b7911a697b202f5799a4e39388c8.jpg

 

European maxima - 01/01/22

865736844_01012022-Europemaxtemp.thumb.png.c92e31e2a2fcd886916dd5ae9d7745e6.png

 

France was by far one of the warmest places in recent days with numerous records being beaten. Temperatures reached as high as 26C in the southwest Basque region on New Years Day. 

2077242549_01012022-Francemaxtemp.thumb.jpg.d773a600ee0a3137f347e80c402e2f89.jpg

 

Exceptional heat in Spain and Portugal over the New Year period as well with some stations reaching 25-26C (77-79F) on New Year's day. As previously mentioned, the Basque region of southwest France and northeast Spain was by far the warmest region in recent days. They were very warm on New Years Eve as well. 3-4 days of exceptional warmth in total. 

260038761_01012022-MaxtempSpain.thumb.jpg.7f70ab2aa47b8cec11d11efbbef3c7c9.jpg

 

I went 100+ hours above 12C / 54F here, which may be a new winter record in itself for the UK. The 16.1C high and 12.9C lows are definitely records for me here. Not surprising the bees and butterflies are coming out. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands of records that have been set in Europe in recent days. The UK, Spain, France and Germany alone have all broken so many different records. Belgium, Austria and Switzerland also breaking many records. More updates to follow. 

 

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