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Chester B

Fall/WInter weather in the PNW talk.

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Trustandi

Crossing my fingers, I dont want any more snowy and below freezing days. 

Hutch, will you dig your mule palm and replant it in your new home?

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Hutch
1 hour ago, Trustandi said:

Crossing my fingers, I dont want any more snowy and below freezing days. 

Hutch, will you dig your mule palm and replant it in your new home?

Unfortunately ... it goes with the property...witch is going for sale in May...i enjoyed growing the palms and others for the last 8 or 9 years...Gardners Wanted!!

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Trustandi

The new property owner will be very lucky to inherit big beautiful palm specimens.

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Trustandi

This 10 days forecast screams "Spring is here".  I must resist the temptation to plant my potted palms until early March. What do you guys think?

Screenshot_20220111-094114.png

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nick206

I was thinking about that earlier. If It wasn't for the bad week we would probably would have started seeing budding at the end of the month. Fingers crossed this trend continues, I saw some indication the models show the la nina starting to weaken at the end of the month.

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Chester B

I would wait until March to plant palms,  that's usually when I start actively gardening.  Yes it is definitely spring-like but last year we had that awful ice storm during Valentines Day weekend after a pretty mild winter leading up to it.  

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Silas_Sancona
31 minutes ago, nick206 said:

I was thinking about that earlier. If It wasn't for the bad week we would probably would have started seeing budding at the end of the month. Fingers crossed this trend continues, I saw some indication the models show the la nina starting to weaken at the end of the month.

That's the thought atm.. Regardless, it will take time before the atmosphere responds to any big changes that occur in the Pacific over the next several months..  By that time, we'll be well into mid / late spring so any changes that might allow more cold to get into that part of the country won't really do much. ..  Watching it myself since earlier forecasts suggested we might be headed toward the first signs of another El Nino.  Current thought looks like this.. A pretty big change from earlier.. ( same plot had the black line crossing into " lean positive " territory by late July / August.. )

nino34Mon.gif

^^ Current look seems to suggest keeping things in the  " lean La Nina " territory  ..for the moment..

We will be headed into the " Spring Unpredictability Season " soon   so i expect this forecast plot to change again by the time we get to the start of June..


What i would keep an eye on is there have been some hints from a few rogue model runs another lobe of cold air might try to rotate down over western Canada / Pac. N.W. again late month / start of Feb..  ..Nothing to be too concerned with for now,  as most forecasts / model runs keep the cold east of the Rockies for awhile..  just something to watch in case a trend starts to develop.

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Paradise Found

Mild out today, 12:30 pm 60F.  Wednesday 12th. 

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Paradise Found

Trustandi,  high today was 61F setting a new record, old one was 57F.  :D

Edited by Paradise Found
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Chester B

Apparently I was 63. Beautiful weather. Rest of the month is looking good. 

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Trustandi

Gee .. you guys... Give me 1F each of you. :floor:

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Silas_Sancona

Definitely not  anything that is set in stone, but something to be watched closely as Feb. starts.. Colder trend over the west around the Feb 1st time frame has also shown up in various, longer term GFS runs over the last few days also. 

Hopefully, just transient, not suggestive of another big pattern change that trends into a prolonged event like last months episode..
pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

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Chester B

Thanks for the update.  I see the models are putting us back down into the mid 40s early Feb, which is below normal.  Hopefully that will be as low as it gets.  We're getting pretty close to be "safe" for the winter, just another 3 weeks and I'll be feeling pretty good.  The buds on the trees around here are getting swollen, the birds are singing much more in the morning and the frogs have started up again too.  It's nice to see.

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Hutch
On 1/21/2022 at 9:16 AM, Chester B said:

Thanks for the update.  I see the models are putting us back down into the mid 40s early Feb, which is below normal.  Hopefully that will be as low as it gets.  We're getting pretty close to be "safe" for the winter, just another 3 weeks and I'll be feeling pretty good.  The buds on the trees around here are getting swollen, the birds are singing much more in the morning and the frogs have started up again too.  It's nice to see.

Same here...Chester...was just looking at current temps looks like Brookings Or. Is hottest spot in the country at 78 degrees right now...warmer than Key West ...Palm Springs ect...unreal! The Banana Belt...

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Paradise Found
On 1/21/2022 at 9:16 AM, Chester B said:

Thanks for the update.  I see the models are putting us back down into the mid 40s early Feb, which is below normal.  Hopefully that will be as low as it gets.  We're getting pretty close to be "safe" for the winter, just another 3 weeks and I'll be feeling pretty good.  The buds on the trees around here are getting swollen, the birds are singing much more in the morning and the frogs have started up again too.  It's nice to see.

Starting to feel like spring is right.  Daphane need another two weeks to bloom, and Viburnum bodnantense pink dawn is almost full bloom. This is its normal time to bloom in the PNW. Very sweet perfume fragrant.

botanikfoto-436097-LOptimized.jpg

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Chester B

Bring it on. I’m ready for summer. 
 

EBE78B5F-CD1B-4069-8B56-BB92C71A6E57.png

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Trustandi

Eek... What is this garbage weather.... Blah...let's get ready for a couple of cold blasts. 

Screenshot_20220216-153310.png

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Chester B

We're not too far off you.  That Tuesday night is looking chilly down here too.  The good thing is the temps will rebound pretty quickly during the day and the sunshine should help.  Just a blip in the road.

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Chester B

Some kind of funky numbers on the weather network this morning for my area.

image.png.2072055d4cacf500a4c6f77ca31c1ce9.png

 

If we hit 19F that will be the coldest temp I've ever experienced living here.  I highly doubt that's going to happen this late in the year.  Local weather forecasters are predicting a different story.

image.png.b54d92c6813354bce27413ad8326017b.png

 

 

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Trustandi

@Chester B hehe . I take the forecast of your local weather. What a discrepancy! I wonder if they use different sources to predict.  

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Chester B
8 minutes ago, Trustandi said:

@Chester B hehe . I take the forecast of your local weather. What a discrepancy! I wonder if they use different sources to predict.  

The first is just a computer model, the app on on my phone was showing even worse.  The local weather is from Meteorologist Mark Nelson who looks at all the models, so this is the human interpretation.

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Trustandi

I found the windy.com. It is a pretty nifty website to compare all the forecasts. 

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Paradise Found

Tuesday night may be a record for that night,  low of 21F.  At least the days are in the mid 40's to upper 40's by the end of the week. Then the rain comes back and pushes the cold eastward. 

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Chester B

I keep seeing conflicting info but it looks like one night close to 20f a few others in mid 20s. Longer days and sunshine will help though. However we’re getting that crappy east wind. 

Edited by Chester B

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Paradise Found

12 noon today temps...

Olympia 35F

Portland 35F

Chehalis 35F

Seattle   33F

My place Oly  39F

Aberdeen 39F/ 9a. 

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Chester B

That's spot on for here.  We might've bumped up to 36F today, its 6 pm now and we're already at 29F.  Ultimate low projection now is 21F with a high of 37F tomorrow.  One real cold night and we'll be in the clear.  I protected my small mules, Sabal causiarums and all the Livistonas.  Everything else has to deal with it, including one unprotected causiarum.

Edited by Chester B

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Paradise Found

They raise the low tonight to 22F and tomorrows high will be 41F then 27F on wednesday night. 

Are you sure its going to be that cold for a high tomorrow? 

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Paradise Found
13 hours ago, Paradise Found said:

They raise the low tonight to 22F and tomorrows high will be 41F then 27F on wednesday night. 

Are you sure its going to be that cold for a high tomorrow? 

Low was 22F clear skies sunny. I protected the livenstona chinensis. Hope it wroked.

 

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Trustandi

I am not sure what the exact low mine was.  I think it was somewhere between 21-24. Yay. Zone 9a low :floor:.  I hope your Livistona Chinensis is ok. 

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Paradise Found

9 am, now up to 31F and no frost last night.  tonight should be warmer. 

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Chester B

I woke up to 24F, it looks like we might've briefly touched 23F, so better than what they were calling for even last night before I went to bed.  No frost due to the high winds.

10am and sitting at 28F with a high of 38F predicted.  

Next couple of nights not so bad around 26/27 as the low.  Then back to rain.

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Paradise Found

Here it will be 28F tonight also. 

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Chester B

My thermometer says 26 at 10 pm. Apps say I’m at 28. Supposedly it’s going to stall out at this temp and gradually warm in the very early morning. 

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Trustandi

The nearest weather station close to my house, showed 36F at 11:00pm last night.

I woke up with very little snow on the ground this morning. Currently, the temp is 36F. We should get to 40F this afternoon and drop down to 25 tomorrow morning. Arrgghh...

 

 

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Chester B

You did better than me.  I was at 27F just after sunset and woke up to 28F with light snow.  About 14 hours below freezing, so again another prolonged freeze.

Tonight isn't looking much better 12 hours below freezing and ultimate low of 25F.

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Paradise Found

Richland WA,  68F today and maybe 70F tomorrow.  Spring is coming some places in the state at least. 

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Chester B
13 hours ago, Paradise Found said:

Richland WA,  68F today and maybe 70F tomorrow.  Spring is coming some places in the state at least. 

Tricities, I had to look that one up.

Was 59F here yesterday and just pouring,  Today 56F and rain.  The tree frogs were deafening last night, you can hear them inside with the TV on.

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Hutch

62 right now with sun peaks....i just have gotten no rain today last night was pretty heavy at times...

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16461750379812387615858041068568.jpg

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Hutch

Oh ya I forgot...yep Chester the Tree frogs were outrageous last night....... and we have a bullfrog to I had enough and got up at 3 am started my day a bit early !

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