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JLM

Florida Winter 2021-2022

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JLM

Apparently those CPC outlook images i posted are actually GIFs, so they will update by themselves for a little while. Today's update on the 8-14 Day Outlook features the largest 90%+ above average area since December 15, 2015.

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kinzyjr
34 minutes ago, JLM said:

Apparently those CPC outlook images i posted are actually GIFs, so they will update by themselves for a little while. Today's update on the 8-14 Day Outlook features the largest 90%+ above average area since December 15, 2015.

I bought a few things that probably shouldn't be planted this time of year, but given a week of 80F+ during the day and 60F+ at night, I'm going to just throw them in the ground and cross my fingers.

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kinzyjr

Long range forecasting is not usually very accurate this time of year, but if they nailed this one I'll be thrilled:

202112082340_Weather.jpg

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JLM

@teddytn Please be aware that there is a supercell near Dover, TN headed NE in the general direction of northern Clarksville and the TN/KY line. This storm does currently have a tornado on the ground.
Image

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JLM

PDS Tornado Warning (i am aware this is for FL winter but this was the only one i could think of to post this in without creating a new thread)
Image

Edited by JLM
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teddytn
3 hours ago, JLM said:

@teddytn Please be aware that there is a supercell near Dover, TN headed NE in the general direction of northern Clarksville and the TN/KY line. This storm does currently have a tornado on the ground.
Image

It is getting gnarly right now. At the very least there’s going to be some shingles ripped off and some damage to the trees. 

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JLM
11 hours ago, teddytn said:

It is getting gnarly right now. At the very least there’s going to be some shingles ripped off and some damage to the trees. 

Is everything alright there? The damage in Mayfield, KY among other places is just devastating.

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teddytn
44 minutes ago, JLM said:

Is everything alright there? The damage in Mayfield, KY among other places is just devastating.

In Clarksville yeah all good. Not typical for this time of year, but we get nasty storms. Last spring I think there was 5 tornados on the ground in Clarksville at the same time. Crazy 

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ChristianStAug

Anyone else getting nervous about the potential change to a negative NAO and cold returning to the eastern US? Can anyone chime in on the certain scenarios that give Florida its historical cold events? There have obviously been many -NAO events and polar vortex intrusions into the NE US that have not penetrated deep into the SE. I’m trying to not be alarmed, but yet again, I’ve never had so much at risk haha!

 

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kinzyjr
23 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

Anyone else getting nervous about the potential change to a negative NAO and cold returning to the eastern US? Can anyone chime in on the certain scenarios that give Florida its historical cold events? There have obviously been many -NAO events and polar vortex intrusions into the NE US that have not penetrated deep into the SE. I’m trying to not be alarmed, but yet again, I’ve never had so much at risk haha!

 

You just know this 82F/65F stuff is too good to last the whole way into March....

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SubTropicRay
9 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Anyone else getting nervous about the potential change to a negative NAO and cold returning to the eastern US? Can anyone chime in on the certain scenarios that give Florida its historical cold events? There have obviously been many -NAO events and polar vortex intrusions into the NE US that have not penetrated deep into the SE. I’m trying to not be alarmed, but yet again, I’ve never had so much at risk haha!

 

Forget the NAO. It's the AO that'll get you blasted.  It's positive right now and predicted to head back to neutral by month's end.  It was at a -6 last February when Texas got hammered.  The PNA is also staying negative so there's no west coast ridge forcing cold air south and east.

 

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ChristianStAug
2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Forget the NAO. It's the AO that'll get you blasted.  It's positive right now and predicted to head back to neutral by month's end.  It was at a -6 last February when Texas got hammered.  The PNA is also staying negative so there's no west coast ridge forcing cold air south and east.

 

Rooting for the -PNA then! Thanks for detail about NAO vs AO. I honestly get them confused.  This season I am trying to understand more about the teleconnections/MJO. May La Nina prevail in the end! 

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PalmatierMeg
On 12/8/2021 at 11:38 PM, kinzyjr said:

Long range forecasting is not usually very accurate this time of year, but if they nailed this one I'll be thrilled:

202112082340_Weather.jpg

Looking warm where you are so warmer where I am. It's been mid-80s/mid-60s here and I'm counting down the days. The mild weather surely won't last but I'm hoping against hope. The darkest statistical depth of winter here is Jan. 10, which, not coincidentally is the all-time low I've experienced in 3 decades in FL: 28.5F. From there the averages slowly start to rise.

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bubba

What Winter? Way too warm/hot. We need relief and some California weather. Highs in mid-80’s, low’s remaining in the 70’s and high humidity. Probably will see a nuclear freeze but some Low 70 highs with lows in the mid 50s would be spectacular!

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Jimbean

I actually hope for a massive freeze just so I can see what happens.

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Matthew92

I was looking at records for similar high temperatures I am seeing at my location right now. Like this year, December 2013, December 1984, and December 1939 had some mid-to high 70's in December. Christmas 1984 was a high of 75 degrees and the 26th at 78 degrees! 

I lately was reading about the January 1940 freezes in FL, and coincidentally some of the meteorologists I follow have put that winter as one of the possible analogues to this year. For some reason I hadn't looked at weather records for my location for Jan 1940: so I just did, and oh my! was that brutal here in Northwest FL- four nights in the mid to low teens!

Valparaiso, FL Weather History | Weather Underground (wunderground.com) (January 1940)

Not saying it would be on the order of one of those notable winter, but will have to be on the lookout for a harsh snap back to winter weather in our region.

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Xerarch

We've been in the low 80's a lot here recently in Corpus Christi, supposed be right around that again tomorrow and Friday, low tonight expected to be about 70 degrees.  That is very warm, even for here.  We do have a significant cooldown coming in a few days where lows will be in the 40's in some parts of town but probably 50 at my place followed by highs also not exceeding the 50's.  But that won't last, it's right back up to mid to high 70's as far out as the forecast goes after that.  This is our first winter here, and so far I'm not complaining.

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Jimbean
41 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

I was looking at records for similar high temperatures I am seeing at my location right now. Like this year, December 2013, December 1984, and December 1939 had some mid-to high 70's in December. Christmas 1984 was a high of 75 degrees and the 26th at 78 degrees! 

I lately was reading about the January 1940 freezes in FL, and coincidentally some of the meteorologists I follow have put that winter as one of the possible analogues to this year. For some reason I hadn't looked at weather records for my location for Jan 1940: so I just did, and oh my! was that brutal here in Northwest FL- four nights in the mid to low teens!

Valparaiso, FL Weather History | Weather Underground (wunderground.com) (January 1940)

Not saying it would be on the order of one of those notable winter, but will have to be on the lookout for a harsh snap back to winter weather in our region.

I remember looking and comparing different winter seasons for the eastern USA, and the only pattern I found was there would be a stretch of years where there were extremes, and then a number of years where the winters were overall average.  It has to do with the speed of the jet stream I believe.  If the jet stream moves slower, then it is more prone to deeper troughs and ridges thus enabling colder air to move south. 

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Xerarch
10 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I actually hope for a massive freeze just so I can see what happens.

Unfortunately here in S Texas we know exactly what happens, you were lucky to have dodged the event we got in February, our slate has been cleared of all the very large Royals/Foxtails etc that were all over town.  My in-laws live in Brevard, lot of tropical material there, actually a lot of it was nuked in 2010/2011, but all the survivors/replants are big now.  You have records in the teens, that would be devastating. But if you do get it, I'll grab some popcorn and be anxious to record the results, just please let it not hit us first on the way there.

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Jimbean
2 minutes ago, Xerarch said:

Unfortunately here in S Texas we know exactly what happens, you were lucky to have dodged the event we got in February, our slate has been cleared of all the very large Royals/Foxtails etc that were all over town.  My in-laws live in Brevard, lot of tropical material there, actually a lot of it was nuked in 2010/2011, but all the survivors/replants are big now.  You have records in the teens, that would be devastating. But if you do get it, I'll grab some popcorn and be anxious to record the results, just please let it not hit us first on the way there.

I was surprised that we dodged the bullet last February; we got really lucky.  As bad as 2010 was, it was not as bad as 1983, 1985, and 1989 were, and we actually are pretty due for it. 

I'm very interested in climate and ecology, and I'm a guy who has to look at the facts.  Nothing answers a question like a raw observation.  I just want to record a good, strong freezing event here in detail, station by station. 

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Xerarch
5 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I was surprised that we dodged the bullet last February; we got really lucky.  As bad as 2010 was, it was not as bad as 1983, 1985, and 1989 were, and we actually are pretty due for it. 

I'm very interested in climate and ecology, and I'm a guy who has to look at the facts.  Nothing answers a question like a raw observation.  I just want to record a good, strong freezing event here in detail, station by station. 

I hear you there, as devastating as the freeze was here I'm constantly looking all over town to continue to asses the damage/recovery.  I'm very disappointed the vast majority of queens and bismarcks were killed outright, a few are recovering.  But on the other hand other things rebounded, plumaria, bougainvillea, even mango trees, growing back, seagrape growing back quickly, bananas are already huge again, giant bird of paradise lost trunks but already a lot of regrowth.  It won't take very many average winters to regain the tropical feel, and the RVG didn't even lose all their Royals etc so they're further along.

I also track things at the in-laws in Brevard, 2010 killed whatever Christmas palms and coconuts they had in the neighborhood.  There were a couple royals close by that had significant damage but they survived and are now much larger.  They aren't on Merritt Island but I almost can't believe how much tropical material is on the island, a lot of good sized coconuts.

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JLM

I could really do without a freeze at all for right now, need to figure out why one of the fronds on one of my queens just collapsed, then figure out how to prevent it in the future. However, as mentioned above we are getting that -NAO soon, and also an MJO phase 8,1 which are the cold phases for this area of the world. I have been constantly seeing a signal for a freeze in early January for almost a week on the CFS. And ya, it has tried to mix in some foreign precip types as well :) (not gonna happen)

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ChristianStAug

Oh goodness. 
 

 

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ChristianStAug
14 hours ago, Jimbean said:

I remember looking and comparing different winter seasons for the eastern USA, and the only pattern I found was there would be a stretch of years where there were extremes, and then a number of years where the winters were overall average.  It has to do with the speed of the jet stream I believe.  If the jet stream moves slower, then it is more prone to deeper troughs and ridges thus enabling colder air to move south. 

I have yet to come across analogue seasons where an extended warm period wasn’t off set by cold. It’s been my ongoing worry this December. 

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Alan_Tampa

guys, the first rule of winter is don't talk about winter. 

 

until after winter

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JLM
3 hours ago, Alan_Tampa said:

guys, the first rule of winter is don't talk about winter. 

 

until after winter

Well, heres the thing, we started talking about winter.....before winter

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Jimbean
8 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

I have yet to come across analogue seasons where an extended warm period wasn’t off set by cold. It’s been my ongoing worry this December. 

That's what I was referring to about the stretch of extreme years.  You saw what happened in Texas last February and we do have a warm December. 

I'm not making any predictions, only time will tell.

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JLM
1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

That's what I was referring to about the stretch of extreme years.  You saw what happened in Texas last February and we do have a warm December. 

I'm not making any predictions, only time will tell.

Well, if it doesnt happen this winter it will happen next winter for sure. Anybody ever noticed the pattern? At least for this area, looking back at the minimum temperature for each year we have a really warm winter or two followed by one or two winters that have deep freezes (down into the teens). Certainly different from location to location, like Central Florida likely not as extreme on the temperature aspect of it, but still damaging cold.

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Rapha2343
On 12/14/2021 at 11:20 AM, ChristianStAug said:

Rooting for the -PNA then! Thanks for detail about NAO vs AO. I honestly get them confused.  This season I am trying to understand more about the teleconnections/MJO. May La Nina prevail in the end! 

-PNA? You want hot weather? 

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Jimbean

We have a cool down next week

 

1.png

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ChristianStAug

NOAA's 3-4 week outlook (taking us to Mid Jan) is confidently warm as they believe the SE ridge holds. 

1163511964_ScreenShot2021-12-17at5_05_59PM.png.13ad565a949de384fda562b32f7e2ee0.png

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ChristianStAug
10 hours ago, Jimbean said:

We have a cool down next week

 

1.png

A little cool down by not an artic outbreak :) 

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Silas_Sancona
2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

NOAA's 3-4 week outlook (taking us to Mid Jan) is confidently warm as they believe the SE ridge holds. 

1163511964_ScreenShot2021-12-17at5_05_59PM.png.13ad565a949de384fda562b32f7e2ee0.png

Wouldn't bet the house on it...

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chinandega81
11 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Wouldn't bet the house on it...

It almost seems too good to be true. I would be thrilled! Has there ever been a winter in South Florida where a SE ridge held throughout the whole season? 

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Silas_Sancona
3 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

It almost seems too good to be true. I would be thrilled! Has there ever been a winter in South Florida where a SE ridge held throughout the whole season? 

That's a good question.. I'm sure there has, but to what degree in strength the ridge held thru the entire 3 month winter period?  that's a better ( and harder to nail down ) question..  Regardless, even if it breaks down at some point over the next 6-9 weeks, that doesn't necessarily imply doomsday cold..

As has been discussed before, set up has to be just right for that too.. Even If the ridge breaks down, i just don't see some crazy extreme / extended cold spell  setting up there.. ( then again, if some people keep wishing for extreme cold destruction.... )  Again though, don't bet the house on that, either..  Be ready for anything..

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Rapha2343
18 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

NOAA's 3-4 week outlook (taking us to Mid Jan) is confidently warm as they believe the SE ridge holds. 

1163511964_ScreenShot2021-12-17at5_05_59PM.png.13ad565a949de384fda562b32f7e2ee0.png

AccuWeather predicts change of pattern from Mid Jan on. Cold will arrive there. 

This "18°C~30°C" won't last for the rest of the winter. 

Edited by Rapha2343

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Silas_Sancona
10 minutes ago, Rapha2343 said:

AccuWeather predicts change of pattern from Mid Jan on. Cold will arrive there. 

This "18°C~30°C" won't last for the rest of the winter. 

If there is one weather forecast you definitely don't want to put any  faith in, it's anything  from always  in- Accuweather, lol. ( Weather channel too < Always a " hot disaster ". That is significant magnitudes greater than a " hot mess ",  haha > ) That said, PNA is showing signs of climbing out of the basement,  just as both the AO and NAO may head downhill, as we head toward Jan.. So we'll have to see what happens after the start of the year..

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JLM
3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

If there is one weather forecast you definitely don't want to put any  faith in, it's anything  from always  in- Accuweather, lol. ( Weather channel too < Always a " hot disaster ". That is significant magnitudes greater than a " hot mess ",  haha > ) That said, PNA is showing signs of climbing out of the basement,  just as both the AO and NAO may head downhill, as we head toward Jan.. So we'll have to see what happens after the start of the year..

Agreed, we saw what the weather channel did in February...

Edited by JLM
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Rapha2343
On 12/18/2021 at 1:34 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

If there is one weather forecast you definitely don't want to put any  faith in, it's anything  from always  in- Accuweather, lol. ( Weather channel too < Always a " hot disaster ". That is significant magnitudes greater than a " hot mess ",  haha > ) That said, PNA is showing signs of climbing out of the basement,  just as both the AO and NAO may head downhill, as we head toward Jan.. So we'll have to see what happens after the start of the year..

Hummm... so what's the best one in which we can trust? 

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Rapha2343
On 12/18/2021 at 5:08 PM, JLM said:

Agreed, we saw what the weather channel did in February...

What? I thought The Weather Channel was the best one when looking for a 1-7 day forecast 

Edited by Rapha2343
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