Florida Winter 2021-2022

[ruskinPalms]

NWS has me forecasted for 31F Sunday morning and 37F for Monday morning. I’m sure they will slowly lower those numbers as we closer as they always do… I’m still not planning to protect anything. I want stuff that is going to die to go ahead and die if it can’t take my area unprotected. I’m sure some palms will make it. Most (including my green Malayan coconut) made it through a 27F advective freeze. That poor green Malayan got crown rot last spring and was actually making a good comeback. This might do it in though…

[SubTropicRay]

The X/N row gives you the GFS guidance lows and highs for each day.  This is for the Orlando (KMCO), Tampa (KTPA) and Miami (KMIA) Int'l airports.  The Euro and GFS have come into agreement (for the moment) on the lows Sunday morning.  Last Mondays cold snap was good so that this cool down will deliver less of a shock.  This is also much better timing and less damaging than the same front a month or more ago.  The recent rain some got also helps keep the ground warmer.

KMCO   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/27/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  27| FRI 28| SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03 CLIMO
 X/N  71| 56  71| 45  57| 32  62| 40  68| 47  73| 56  78| 60  82 49 73
 TMP  64| 58  62| 46  47| 35  51| 42  58| 50  64| 57  68| 63  72      
 DPT  56| 54  53| 30  18| 21  27| 33  41| 45  50| 54  60| 62  64      
 CLD  OV| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  OV| PC  OV      
 WND  16| 13  10| 15  16|  8   7|  5   6|  5  10|  8  16|  8  14      
 P12  30| 12  12| 24   3|  3   1|  0   2|  3  10| 14  21| 19  29 13 17
 P24    |     20|     24|      3|      2|     10|     21|     42    24
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12   3|  2   3|  2   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  2   6|  3   7      
 T24    |  6    |  3    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  4    |  6          
 PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   5|  5   2|  0   0|  0   0|  2   3|  0   1      
 PRS   0|  0   0|  2   7| 16   1|  0   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      

---

 KTPA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/27/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  27| FRI 28| SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03 CLIMO
 X/N  71| 56  68| 45  58| 35  59| 42  68| 51  72| 61  77| 65  81 52 71
 TMP  64| 57  60| 46  49| 37  51| 44  59| 52  65| 62  70| 66  74      
 DPT  55| 52  53| 33  23| 20  29| 35  44| 43  50| 57  59| 64  65      
 CLD  OV| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  OV| PC  PC      
 WND   8|  8  10| 17  15|  8   8|  5   7|  5   9|  8  10|  8  11      
 P12  18|  3  12| 30   4|  2   1|  0   3|  4   8| 13  24| 18  27 14 15
 P24    |     13|     31|      2|      3|      8|     24|     42    23
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12   1|  1   2|  3   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  2   5|  3   4      
 T24    |  1    |  3    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  3    |  5          
 PZP   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   2|  4   2|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|  0   0      
 PRS   0|  0   0|  1   3|  8   1|  0   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      

 KMIA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/27/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  27| FRI 28| SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03 CLIMO
 X/N  79| 65  80| 55  65| 41  64| 48  71| 59  75| 65  79| 70  81 57 76
 TMP  73| 66  71| 55  57| 43  59| 50  66| 60  70| 67  73| 72  75      
 DPT  67| 64  59| 43  28| 28  34| 40  45| 51  55| 60  64| 67  67      
 CLD  OV| PC  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND   7|  4   9| 10  10|  6   7|  5   9|  8  17| 13  16| 12  16      
 P12  49| 18  13| 24  15|  2   2|  0   1|  5  11| 23  21| 25  28 13 15
 P24    |     23|     24|      2|      1|     12|     27|     36    23
 Q12   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12  12|  3   3|  2   1|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|  4   5|  6   5      
 T24    | 13    |  3    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  5    | 10          
 PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0      
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  3   3|  0   0      
 PRS   0|  0   0|  0   0|  3   1|  0   1|  1   1|  0   0|  1   0      
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R    

[TampaPalms]

The NWS raised my temperature a degree here in North Tampa to 32° from 31° yesterday.  Although I would say they were 4° off Sunday night when they forecasted 38° and actual low was 34° with heavy frost so this event makes me nervous. My whole fence line of 50 feet has Dypsis lutescens about 8 ft tall now and white birds of paradise. So unless I want to get crazy, they're going to be hard to protect. I also have a large foxtail.

 

The Euro last I checked had the 28/29° line just outside the city limits of Tampa.

[Jimbean]

I looked at the different models.  The models are all over the place. 

[SubTropicRay]

10 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I looked at the different models.  The models are all over the place. 

The consensus is pretty good for Sunday morning

 

[Merlyn]

Yeah, this weekend looks pretty damaging for me in the NW Orlando area.  I hit 29.5F on Sunday night, with about 2-3 hours at or below freezing and heavy snow-like frost.  The official low temperature at the Sanford airport was 35F for about 3 hours.  This goes along with my estimate on my yard.  I typically guess that I'll be about 3F below the airport...this time was much lower!  Here's the chart from my 4 working sensors, my front yard NE side drops out a lot.  I'll have to relocate it...  This is from midnight to noon.  Fortunately I noticed it was 35F at 11pm on Sunday night, so I put frost cardboard boxes over a Corypha, Caryota Gigas, and whole-leaf Elaies!

[ChristianStAug]

Official NWS forecasts have looked to moderate for coastal NE FL. The Euro looks to have come up a degree and the GFS has lowered a degree, and they are splitting the difference with a forecast low right at freezing in St. John's county. I would like to know an opinion of how the Nor'easter's track would affect FL's ultimate low temps on Saturday night? If the low is farther off the NE coast is the better or worse for us with how it pulls down the cold air?

[pj_orlando_z9b]

1 hour ago, ChristianStAug said:

Official NWS forecasts have looked to moderate for coastal NE FL. The Euro looks to have come up a degree and the GFS has lowered a degree, and they are splitting the difference with a forecast low right at freezing in St. John's county. I would like to know an opinion of how the Nor'easter's track would affect FL's ultimate low temps on Saturday night? If the low is farther off the NE coast is the better or worse for us with how it pulls down the cold air?

I noticed same. Euro up a degree (32) and GFS down one (36) for MCO.  The model blend is still showing 31 though. I thought the key is less amplified. The more the trough digs, the better chance for worse cold. The less amplified (flatter) is better. Maybe an expert can weigh in. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by pj_orlando_z9b

[jreich85]

2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Official NWS forecasts have looked to moderate for coastal NE FL. The Euro looks to have come up a degree and the GFS has lowered a degree, and they are splitting the difference with a forecast low right at freezing in St. John's county. I would like to know an opinion of how the Nor'easter's track would affect FL's ultimate low temps on Saturday night? If the low is farther off the NE coast is the better or worse for us with how it pulls down the cold air?

I have been hoping for a similar phenomenon where we get wind that comes more out of the northeast than north or northwest. A similar setup happened earlier this winter on the tail of a cold front and near the coast our lows were substantially warmer than at JAX and west Jacksonville.

[JJPalmer]

Model update for those who can't access easily.  12z GFS, EURO, and now NAM is included; it will be interesting to see how the HRRR interprets the system.  Model-ology is not meteorology, trust the NWS over any one deterministic solution.  For fun I threw the wind chill solution in there as well. 

[TampaPalms]

6 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Model update for those who can't access easily.  12z GFS, EURO, and now NAM is included; it will be interesting to see how the HRRR interprets the system.  Model-ology is not meteorology, trust the NWS over any one deterministic solution.  For fun I threw the wind chill solution in there as well. 

Looking better. 

[SubTropicRay]

30 minutes ago, TampaPalms said:

Looking better. 

is there a subscription cost for pivotol weather?  I like the maps (hate the NAM).  I can't believe the EURO is the warmer of the 2 models.  Normally, it's the GFS that's warmer.  The NAM sucks everytime.

[JJPalmer]

24 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

is there a subscription cost for pivotol weather?  I like the maps (hate the NAM).  I can't believe the EURO is the warmer of the 2 models.  Normally, it's the GFS that's warmer.  The NAM sucks everytime.

No subscription necessary for the basic services.  You'd need to pay for certain features but for 95% of what I like to do the free version is sufficient. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by JJPalmer

[ChristianStAug]

No thanks! 

 

[Aceraceae]

Palm Coast forecast to have a hard freeze, and only 50% humidity at 32 degrees, almost as low of a dew point as NW Florida. 

Lake Wales Ridge will be almost as cold and dry, worse than Orlando. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Aceraceae

[pj_orlando_z9b]

1 hour ago, SubTropicRay said:

is there a subscription cost for pivotol weather?  I like the maps (hate the NAM).  I can't believe the EURO is the warmer of the 2 models.  Normally, it's the GFS that's warmer.  The NAM sucks everytime.

It's not. GFS is forecasting warmer of the 2.

[chinandega81]

42 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

No thanks! 

 

Very annoying. I thought they were forecasting a warm February. We had a cold November, a warm December and now Jan and Feb are trending cold. Ugh. We need Spring!!

[pj_orlando_z9b]

13 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

Very annoying. I thought they were forecasting a warm February. We had a cold November, a warm December and now Jan and Feb are trending cold. Ugh. We need Spring!!

Every year, the West Coast gets like one week below normal and the rest above. 

[chinandega81]

I lived in Socal and I recall that January can have very warm weather mixed with cold. February is usually warm. March, April and May are usually cool...so cool that you feel like the rest of the country moved from Spring to Summer and Socal stayed in winter. I remember it being colder in April sometimes than winter. I was shocked that the plumeria still leafed out and I figured it was from the longer days and brighter sun, because it wasn't due to heat for sure.

I think the west has a semi-premanent feature being a ridge in winter...of course that can vary, but just how was have a Bermuda high in the summer they tend to have a strong ridge pattern in winter.

[Ubuntwo]

1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

Very annoying. I thought they were forecasting a warm February. We had a cold November, a warm December and now Jan and Feb are trending cold. Ugh. We need Spring!!

February as a whole looks above average (ridge dominated). The Feb 5-8 trough is modeled as far less amplified than this weekend's storm. Still pretty far out, but at the moment, seems to be more of a problem further north.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

Every year, the West Coast gets like one week below normal and the rest above. 

 

1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

I lived in Socal and I recall that January can have very warm weather mixed with cold. February is usually warm. March, April and May are usually cool...so cool that you feel like the rest of the country moved from Spring to Summer and Socal stayed in winter. I remember it being colder in April sometimes than winter. I was shocked that the plumeria still leafed out and I figured it was from the longer days and brighter sun, because it wasn't due to heat for sure.

I think the west has a semi-premanent feature being a ridge in winter...of course that can vary, but just how was have a Bermuda high in the summer they tend to have a strong ridge pattern in winter.

 Coastal areas, esp. further north yes.. cool weather can hang on longer in the spring.. Away from the coast / San Fran., like where i lived in San Jose, it was always nice ..most years, by mid March or the start of April, ..after some up and down weather in late Jan., Feb.,  and early March.  While not " cold " during the " transition " period.. as i liked to call it, it was pretty normal to have a stiff, cool, northerly wind blowing into the area, off the bay on many days ..until things evened out in April.  Only a few years i can think of ..mainly in the 90s.. where it was warm, even by Bay Area spring standards, by early or mid - March.

As has been discussed many times, a big reason places like California ..and / or AZ..  don't typically see the kind of cold weather events FL or TX. can is simply location. Lots of Mountains to block / shuffle around arctic air moving south before it can reach the region,  ..and how highs / lows generally will move west to east off the cool ..but still moderating.. Pacific.  Only thing to blame is how the continent was laid out.. Some got luckier, ..at certain times of the year,  while others might not have.. 

Trust me, lol, while not cold ( ..Most of the time anyway ), can't count how many summer days i wished it would stay warm/ humid /  hot, ..all summer growing up in San Jose.. let alone wishing we'd see long spells of legit. Monsoonal activity / rain  than was the norm ( Very little, maybe 3-6 days we might see a shower/ storm during the summer during the best years )

..That's just how it goes..

Edited January 27, 2022 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[kinzyjr]

Not all that far apart as far as predicting the ultimate low.  Unfortunately, once you get below freezing, every degree for every hour starts making a difference.  We'll see how it goes.

NWS - Downtown Lakeland (33801)

NWS - KLAL

AccuWeather

Weather.com

[chinandega81]

41 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 

 Coastal areas, esp. further north yes.. cool weather can hang on longer in the spring.. Away from the coast / San Fran., like where i lived in San Jose, it was always nice ..most years, by mid March or the start of April, ..after some up and down weather in late Jan., Feb.,  and early March.  While not " cold " during the " transition " period.. as i liked to call it, it was pretty normal to have a stiff, cool, northerly wind blowing into the area, off the bay on many days ..until things evened out in April.  Only a few years i can think of ..mainly in the 90s.. where it was warm, even by Bay Area spring standards, by early or mid - March.

As has been discussed many times, a big reason places like California ..and / or AZ..  don't typically see the kind of cold weather events FL or TX. can is simply location. Lots of Mountains to block / shuffle around arctic air moving south before it can reach the region,  ..and how highs / lows generally will move west to east off the cool ..but still moderating.. Pacific.  Only thing to blame is how the continent was laid out.. Some got luckier, ..at certain times of the year,  while others might not have.. 

Trust me, lol, while not cold ( ..Most of the time anyway ), can't count how many summer days i wished it would stay warm/ humid /  hot, ..all summer growing up in San Jose.. let alone wishing we'd see long spells of legit. Monsoonal activity / rain  than was the norm ( Very little, maybe 3-6 days we might see a shower/ storm during the summer during the best years )

..That's just how it goes..

True, I was referencing the LA basin specifically. Inland in a totally different story. You are dead on about the monsoon, I always fantasized about a climate shift that would reverse the cold Pacific current and open the humidity and moisture and turn the CA coast tropical. AZ may have the heat but they have some decent monsoon storms that CA rarely gets in on but a few times a season.

[Matthew92]

 

 

[Fishinsteeg234]

I’m not taking this cold event lightly as most of my yard is still young and fragile. Living in Longwood Fl, NW of Orlando, I may see highs in the upper 20’s. Luckily I got an early start on prepping to wrap and cover most of my yard. Propane heaters, Xmas lights, heat lamps, frost wraps are ready to go on Saturday. I’m feeling confident I can salvage most of it. I’d rather prepare for the worst and come out OK…besides as any other zone pusher, this is what we prepare for. 

[TampaPalms]

Time is almost running out climologically for a bad freeze in Florida. The sun angles getting high so freezes in mid to late February are usually short duration. We've just got to get through the next couple weeks.

Also it's looking more and more likely there's going to be a lot of wind at least here in Tampa Saturday night and the low being between 30 and 32° so it might not get as low as it could on a calm night. Plus the wind will help with the frost.

Edited January 27, 2022 by TampaPalms

[RedRabbit]

21 minutes ago, TampaPalms said:

Time is almost running out climologically for a bad freeze in Florida. The sun angles getting high so freezes in mid to late February are usually short duration. We've just got to get through the next couple weeks.

Also it's looking more and more likely there's going to be a lot of wind at least here in Tampa Saturday night and the low being between 30 and 32° so it might not get as low as it could on a calm night. Plus the wind will help with the frost.

Right now this is looking less bad than the 2018 freeze. I’m not too worried for Tampa at this point. 

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Not all that far apart as far as predicting the ultimate low.  Unfortunately, once you get below freezing, every degree for every hour starts making a difference.  We'll see how it goes.

NWS - Downtown Lakeland (33801)

NWS - KLAL

AccuWeather

Weather.com

If the forecast is for 28f, what do you expect for your property?

[Silas_Sancona]

2 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

True, I was referencing the LA basin specifically. Inland in a totally different story. You are dead on about the monsoon, I always fantasized about a climate shift that would reverse the cold Pacific current and open the humidity and moisture and turn the CA coast tropical. AZ may have the heat but they have some decent monsoon storms that CA rarely gets in on but a few times a season.

While still " Essentially on the fringes ",  S. Cal has always done better when it comes to experiencing at least some flavor of monsoon season compared to the Bay Area.. but yes, lol.. storms / amount of storm days in S. cal are rarely as numerous / good as they can be in S. AZ.. That said...

Possible " wetter summers" occur,  ..to some deg. at least  in more of CA in the future..  If the " idea" around various Wx patterns becoming slower ..or getting stuck over X area for longer periods of time translates to all seasons more often in a warmer world.. Definitely possible set ups, similar to last summer, ..if not something even more  ideal, occurs at some point in the future causing what used to be rain-less ...or practically rain-less.. summers in CA, outside the Sierras / Deserts, to become a few ticks wetter.. to the point that all references to the area describe how summers in the region have become wetter than in the past.  Sierras / Deserts would also get wetter as well obviously..

Lock up a strong High pressure area over the the right spot in the west long enough and water temps off CA warm.. For now at least,  those patterns don't usually hang around long enough before breaking down and allowing cooler waters.. and that dry foggy west / southwest flow off the pacific to re-bound and shut down any rain potential..  More " cold molasses speed " high pressure areas anchored overhead for longer periods of time during the late spring / summer/ early fall time frame in the future could get water temps to / beyond that 80F threshold point by say mid  July - early Aug. more often, esp. if such a set up occurred during a strong / really strong El Nino where water temps were already elevated. 

Warm waters caused by a strong El Nino alone often up the potential for showers to develop more often over the mountains during those years. Throw in a strong enough disturbance rotating in from the east / southeast ..let alone anything legit. tropical trying to move up from the south, with some strength, and...

Imagine such a H.P. area setting up in say late May,  and not breaking down until October..  If it is positioned to where the flow over S. Cal. / most of the state  is from the south / southeast, vs. it being directly overhead ( Ie:  Center of that high is centered / anchored over northern Nevada / eastern Ore. / Wash. ..all summer, rater than sitting on top of L.A. ..or over Phoenix / Tucson ) that will definitely up opportunities for those hot, humid, and sometimes stormy summer nights that everyone in California wishes we had much more of.

What i found interesting is something i'd skimmed over that referenced the Bay Area ( ..was discussing San Jose specifically ) as " Experiencing activity from the N. American Monsoon pattern every few years.. "   Would love to see that area of the state experience what S. Cal does presently < or a little better >,   S. Cal see summer storm activity rise to similar levels here, ..or in Tucson ( ..even better ) ..and for us and Tucson to see several summers where " Monsoon Season " storm activity is at a similar level as what the foothills east of Hermosillo ..or Alamos, in Southern Sonora,  see almost yearly  in a warmer world.   Last summer was about as perfect as it can get, now to make it even more perfect, and spread it around a bit more in the future..

 

[kinzyjr]

2 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

If the forecast is for 28f, what do you expect for your property?

Since the first day is expected to be advective, I'm not sure if I'll gain much of a bump as far as the overall low.  If it does hit 28F with 17MPH wind and I choose not to wrap or cover anything, there will be a lot of burn on the Cocos, Carpentaria, Ptychospermas, and Veitchia.  There could be some that don't survive.  If we get the two or three degree bump here that they predict for the other zip codes in town, I'm sure it will help lower the amount of damage and reduce the chance of fatalities.

This would basically be a repeat of Jan. 2018.  Then there is the uncertainty about what might come in February and March.

[Walt]

Today I installed thermostatic controlled heating cables to the trunk and up and around the meristem area of my green Malayan dwarf coconut palm. I first tested them out to make absolutely sure they were working, as I've had them stored away for many years. Tomorrow I will install insulation blankets/coverings, etc., around the trunk and meristem area. 

I just today received another remote digital thermometer and sensor. I plan on putting the sensor up in the meristem area of my palm so as I can monitor the temperature. My heating cables activate automatically at 37 degrees, but I don't want them coming on at that temperature. I plan to leave the heating cables unplugged until the low drops to about 32-33 degrees.

I used three heating cables. One 24-feet cable I used for the meristem area and area above the clear trunk. I will have to stuff towels, rags, old cotton clothes, etc., around the meristem area so as to hold in the heat from the heating cables.

I used a 40-feet heating cable to protect most of the trunk, and a 24-feet heating cable to protect the very base of the trunk.  I will install mover's quilts around the trunk to hold in the heat from the heating cables.

I believe this will be the last time (this winter) I will try to protect my coconut palm. I don't care to be working off an extension ladder. I couldn't handle a fall, or even a jump. I also aggravated my plantar fasciitis condition in my left heel standing on the ladder rungs. The time has come to where I have to let things go on their own.

All my potted palms and plants are on my trailer, to be pulled into my garage like I did a few nights ago. Now it's time to let nature take her course.

[Looking Glass]

10 minutes ago, Walt said:

 

I’m I the only one focused on the garage?….  A+ for tidiness.   

[Palmarum]

Rapid palm transport. Makes my wheelbarrows seem slow and small. My garage is getting greener by the day.

Time for any and all outdoor heating ideas. Seen so many, may they all work.

Ryan

[Oviedo_z10b_lol]

2 hours ago, Fishinsteeg234 said:

I’m not taking this cold event lightly as most of my yard is still young and fragile. Living in Longwood Fl, NW of Orlando, I may see highs in the upper 20’s. Luckily I got an early start on prepping to wrap and cover most of my yard. Propane heaters, Xmas lights, heat lamps, frost wraps are ready to go on Saturday. I’m feeling confident I can salvage most of it. I’d rather prepare for the worst and come out OK…besides as any other zone pusher, this is what we prepare for. 

Same here. I used to live off Rangeline in Longwood. Now I’m just on the other side of 417 on 434 in oviedo. I’d imagine we’ll have the same event. 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

2 hours ago, Fishinsteeg234 said:

I’m not taking this cold event lightly as most of my yard is still young and fragile. Living in Longwood Fl, NW of Orlando, I may see highs in the upper 20’s. Luckily I got an early start on prepping to wrap and cover most of my yard. Propane heaters, Xmas lights, heat lamps, frost wraps are ready to go on Saturday. I’m feeling confident I can salvage most of it. I’d rather prepare for the worst and come out OK…besides as any other zone pusher, this is what we prepare for. 

We typically get help in Belle Isle from radiational cooling but not so much in advective. I hit 28F in 2018 and had complete defoliation with the coconut and foxtail and I lost a young majesty. My forecast is 32F so we will see.

I bought a propane heating top and have burlap. Do you do anything special with the propane heater? I imagine I'll need something to hold the heat in if winds are high?

[Ubuntwo]

Tropical Tidbits now has 3-hr frames, soundings, and more parameters for 00/06/12/18z ECMWF runs. ↓ Today's run for 1/29-1/31

Edited January 28, 2022 by Ubuntwo

[Fishinsteeg234]

My tallest Archie and mango tree is about 12’-14’ tall. I also have several mangoes, travelers palms, heliconias, fishtails, foxtails, royals, dypsis, large bromeliads and other tropicals short enough to protect.I plan on wrapping incandescent Christmas lights up the trunks and on branches, then wrapping as much as possible in frost cloths and/or blankets. Also will use clip on heat lamps under the mango canopies with a cover on top to help hold the heat in the canopy. Propane heater will run in close proximity to the grouping of Archies and mangos. I also piled some mulch up on the bases to help hold some heat above ground level. Walt’s method he mentioned above for his coco is what I’m shooting for. In all, I have about 20 trees and different areas to cover and wrap. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Fishinsteeg234

[ruskinPalms]

5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 

 Coastal areas, esp. further north yes.. cool weather can hang on longer in the spring.. Away from the coast / San Fran., like where i lived in San Jose, it was always nice ..most years, by mid March or the start of April, ..after some up and down weather in late Jan., Feb.,  and early March.  While not " cold " during the " transition " period.. as i liked to call it, it was pretty normal to have a stiff, cool, northerly wind blowing into the area, off the bay on many days ..until things evened out in April.  Only a few years i can think of ..mainly in the 90s.. where it was warm, even by Bay Area spring standards, by early or mid - March.

As has been discussed many times, a big reason places like California ..and / or AZ..  don't typically see the kind of cold weather events FL or TX. can is simply location. Lots of Mountains to block / shuffle around arctic air moving south before it can reach the region,  ..and how highs / lows generally will move west to east off the cool ..but still moderating.. Pacific.  Only thing to blame is how the continent was laid out.. Some got luckier, ..at certain times of the year,  while others might not have.. 

Trust me, lol, while not cold ( ..Most of the time anyway ), can't count how many summer days i wished it would stay warm/ humid /  hot, ..all summer growing up in San Jose.. let alone wishing we'd see long spells of legit. Monsoonal activity / rain  than was the norm ( Very little, maybe 3-6 days we might see a shower/ storm during the summer during the best years )

..That's just how it goes..

We all have our climatic envy lol. I’ve come to learn the west coast has better luck with cool but not freeze tolerant palms. And central and south Florida and south Texas can dabble with coconuts and other wet/dry tropic palms at least 10 years at a time.. plan accordingly and enjoy what you can do in your area 

[ruskinPalms]

Disclaimer: I feel my area definitely trends as a summer wet/winter dry area. Subtropical 9B technically speaking, but yeah, definitely on the border of a zone 10 area given native tropical hardwood hammocks just a few miles west of me…

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

We all have our climatic envy lol. I’ve come to learn the west coast has better luck with cool but not freeze tolerant palms. And central and south Florida and south Texas can dabble with coconuts and other wet/dry tropic palms at least 10 years at a time.. plan accordingly and enjoy what you can do in your area 

This is true, lol.. 

Regarding CA, -depending on where you are of course-, California can get away with a pretty good palm selection.. Maybe not perfect looking Coconuts ( for now / that have been seen ) or Lipstick and true Areca species < among other drool worthy species > ( if only, lol.. ), but.. If i were back there and could grow some Veitchia sp., Foxy Lady, Buccaneers, Chambeys,  most of the Thrinax / Cocothrinax, Copernicia,  and perhaps a couple of the Licuala, and maybe a Carpoxylon and Spindle or two to decent proportions for good stretches of time between any damaging cold spells, i'd be pretty content with that..   Always better if i was able to grow a few slightly more touchy ...more tropical looking palms of course,  ..but no deal breaker.. 

One thing is for sure... All  areas listed certainly beat what can be grown here, ..and not  look like they'll explode into flames as they fry in our summers, lol.  That said, seems several Caribbean palms seem to do well here.. excellent complements to our, more tropical looking " desert " flora too.

Having lived in both FL and CA.. and now here, can say i'm glad i don't have to deal with the fog / summers that can be a touch too cool for my liking, -more often than not- ( S. Cal is definitely better in that respect compared to the Bay Area ).  Would be nice if we saw a bit more consistent summer rain / summer rainy season, which also helps tame our beastly summer heat,   but,  glad i'll never have to deal w/the direct effects of Hurricanes..  even if i wish i could walk across the street and take a dip in Siseta Key -like water / walk such a beach whenever i wanted to. 

[Jimbean]

I was looking at the forecast across the state, and the west coast looks pretty good.  The east coast is looking at their average minimums for the most part, a little on the cold side for south Florida, and a tad warmer for north Florida. 

Freeze watches and warnings have been issued for most of the state, including inland south Florida.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Jimbean