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Mindy


bubba

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Mindy was a strange bird. Winds not stronger than a strong thunderstorm. West to east is very weird for this time of year.

 Thank God for no Cape Verde’s this year!

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What you look for is what is looking

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Larry is a Cape Verde but is only going to create rough surf, and there are two potential Cape Verde storms down the road in a bit according to NHC.


P.S., So far, the most destructive storms have been local brewed! Anywhere between 300% to 600% above annual precip in areas of the Northeast thanks to two tropical systems..., all while the West continues to burn. 

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Any Hurricane/cyclone etc called “Larry” brings back bad memories for North Queenslanders. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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9 hours ago, bubba said:

Mindy was a strange bird. Winds not stronger than a strong thunderstorm. West to east is very weird for this time of year.

 Thank God for no Cape Verde’s this year!

Cape Verde's cant be counted out already, just now September 9th, and there is still plenty of time left to go. In fact, MDR is expected to light up with a couple more storms over the next couple of weeks. The MDR has been pretty quiet these past several days because of Hurricane Larry, which has been creating an unfavorable environment for tropical development. Now that Larry is moving out of the picture, hurricane season should resume on its regularly scheduled program soon. Starting with the wave that has 70% 5 day probabilities as of the new NHC update.
Below is the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System, or ECMWF Ensemble). If you dont already know how to interpret this, each colored track line and L represents a storm. There are SEVERAL members within this ensemble member, i think over 50 members, which is over 50 models on this image. Each storm track shows a possible outcome. The more of these tracks there are, the more likely it seems that some may come of it. This is at 10 days, which is a little far out, but it shows the activity over the basin. Of course, Hurricane Larry's signal in the subtropics, and then Mindy's little signal off the SE Coast. A few things to note: 1)Western Gulf of Mexico, 2)First development signal near the Cabo Verde Islands (covered by a second signal), 3) the second Cabo Verde signal, and 4) small signal in the central and southwest MDR
ecens_2021-09-09-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Below is the GEFS ensemble, or the GFS ensemble. Again, probably over 50 members on this image as well. Multiple signals for development with this set of guidance as well. A few differences: GEFS showing a signal near the Bahamas, where the EPS does not. GEFS showing a secondary signal over Central America, that the EPS does not show. Both MDR signals are there, but not quite as strong on the GEFS compared to the EPS. The small signal over the central and southwestern MDR that the EPS shows is not there on the GEFS. 
gefs_2021-09-09-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
Here are a few takeaways from this. Where BOTH sets of guidance show some sort of signal, thats the spots to watch over the next 10 days. The extra signals can be watched to see if the signal strengthens, goes away, or more models catch onto it. If that happens, those areas need to be watched as well. Global deterministic models such as the GFS, ECMWF, ICON, CMC, etc will not cut it in the longer range. Ensembles are the way to go for longer range, and for the overall possible tracks. Each ensemble member is meant to display one possibility on strength and track. You can find these plots on Weathernerds.org, under the ECENS and GEFS tabs.

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Cape Verde’s cannot be counted out but for SE Fl. the likelihood of effect diminishes to nearly 0% after September 15-16 in PB County historically. Miami is closer to September 20. The Keys are a bit past Miami.

The wave coming off Africa now projects a 12 day runway so if it was on a straight shot to South Florida we would be looking at collision on September 22, 2021. This is beyond historical timeframe for PB County, Broward and Miami-Dade.

Cape Verde’s affect the lower Carribean many times in October. Historically, the most active Hurricane and Cape Verde season remains 1780, when 5 October Cape Verde’s terrorized the lower Carribean. Two were Cat 5’s and the Hurricane that defoliated the entire island of the Barbados remains likely the strongest Hurricane ever recorded.

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What you look for is what is looking

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