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bubba

Saharan Air Layer and Cape Verde Season

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bubba

August 1, 2021 and National Hurricane Center predicts no new tropical cyclone development for next five (5) days. Why is this important?

Cape Verde Season for So Fl is August 15 to September 15. Cape Verde Season is the time that the nuclear warheads are launched from the arc of the Sahara towards So Fla (see Andrew). Time is short! Why no action in the Carribean?

SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is blanketing the all important runway from West Africa through the Carribean to So Fl. How long will the SAL blanket remain to protect So Fl and the US from the Cat five (5) carnivores that attack and extract like wild hyenas? No one knows.

The tropics can turn on a dime and false hope is the currency of tragedy. I would gladly trade an Herbert Box 2 Sidewinder full eyewall Monty for an Herbert Box 1 side swipe! Any predictions?

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JLM
1 hour ago, bubba said:

August 1, 2021 and National Hurricane Center predicts no new tropical cyclone development for next five (5) days. Why is this important?

Cape Verde Season for So Fl is August 15 to September 15. Cape Verde Season is the time that the nuclear warheads are launched from the arc of the Sahara towards So Fla (see Andrew). Time is short! Why no action in the Carribean?

SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is blanketing the all important runway from West Africa through the Carribean to So Fl. How long will the SAL blanket remain to protect So Fl and the US from the Cat five (5) carnivores that attack and extract like wild hyenas? No one knows.

The tropics can turn on a dime and false hope is the currency of tragedy. I would gladly trade an Herbert Box 2 Sidewinder full eyewall Monty for an Herbert Box 1 side swipe! Any predictions?

Looks like something may try to develop later this week into next week. Shear looks low enough and the SAL looks to possibly back off enough. Current ensembles are showing the signal for a storm approaching the Lesser Antilles or moving north of the Caribbean. Only time will tell.

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bubba

Any idea on what happened to Cape Verde hurricanes this year? Nothing came close to Florida or the eastern continental United States as all turned far east and north.

Deep Western Caribbean activity is next as we move into sidewinder season. The future runs on Tropical Tidbits do not show much activity in this area at this time. How does global warming shut down hurricanes?

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kinzyjr
18 minutes ago, bubba said:

Any idea on what happened to Cape Verde hurricanes this year? Nothing came close to Florida or the eastern continental United States as all turned far east and north.

No idea in my case, but very thankful for at least no Irma type events in September.

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palmsOrl

It would be nice for Florida to get a tropical storm this month to give us a good rain event going into the dry season, which has started already.

-Loke

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JLM
13 hours ago, bubba said:

Any idea on what happened to Cape Verde hurricanes this year? Nothing came close to Florida or the eastern continental United States as all turned far east and north.

Deep Western Caribbean activity is next as we move into sidewinder season. The future runs on Tropical Tidbits do not show much activity in this area at this time. How does global warming shut down hurricanes?

Technically Elsa and Fred came close to Florida, just not as big hurricanes. Both were also technically Cape Verdes. Africa should begin shutting down soon, which will make way for he Caribbean season. Be thankful that nothing powerful came close to the US from that area this season. Wouldnt blame a lack or surplus of hurricanes on global warming, we had much stronger hurricanes before the satellite era, strong hurricanes have indeed happened before.

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bubba

I have read numerous articles from numerous sources all proclaiming that global warming enhances both the severity and number of hurricanes. This is an interesting proclamation but I find it hard to rectify and prove it’s accuracy.

 

The technology available today makes minor low pressure waves off Africa and the lower Carribean immediately identifiable. I know for a fact that my grandfather, who weathered directly the 1928 storm that moved Lake Okeechobee, had no warning of the coming disaster. The last news that they received was that a bad hurricane was expected to hit Miami again (1926).

 

Fast backwards to 1780, the worst year for hurricane damage and death ever recorded. How can we, with any legitimacy, proclaim that global warming is responsible for enhancing the severity and number of hurricanes? The days past and lack of prescient technology during that time, make the announcement of global warming’s responsibility for hurricanes of greater severity and number dubious at best.

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Silas_Sancona
1 hour ago, bubba said:

I have read numerous articles from numerous sources all proclaiming that global warming enhances both the severity and number of hurricanes. This is an interesting proclamation but I find it hard to rectify and prove it’s accuracy.

 

The technology available today makes minor low pressure waves off Africa and the lower Carribean immediately identifiable. I know for a fact that my grandfather, who weathered directly the 1928 storm that moved Lake Okeechobee, had no warning of the coming disaster. The last news that they received was that a bad hurricane was expected to hit Miami again (1926).

 

Fast backwards to 1780, the worst year for hurricane damage and death ever recorded. How can we, with any legitimacy, proclaim that global warming is responsible for enhancing the severity and number of hurricanes? The days past and lack of prescient technology during that time, make the announcement of global warming’s responsibility for hurricanes of greater severity and number dubious at best.

Global warming / long term changing weather patterns directly linked to increased warming doesn't always mean " Every year from  yesterday last month  forward is going to bring 65 cat 5 Hurricanes to FL., each summer and is a complete conspiracy if it doesn't " :rolleyes::floor:  
  There will always be years someone else gets the brunt of any activity.. and FL.. or Texas is pretty much silent( and breathing a sigh of relief, not asking " Where's them "Canes? ".  Climate Change can include pronounced, year to year swings between patterns at times.. not just a perfectly predictable escalator -like ascent " up ".

As for the highlighted question, ask someone who went to school for.. and does the research 24-7-365 days a year ..not from the arm rest of the living room couch, or X news source but from a research vessel transversing the Arctic , or Gulf of Mexico taking and analyzing core samples of Mud or Ice from deep beneath the sea, etc. 

Will forecasting a particular season ( or pretty much anything else ) ever become 100% perfect / flawless?   Highly doubtful..  Still doesn't mean Climate Change ..and the negative effects of.. are false / made up to fulfill some imagined " agenda ".. 

Be glad your number hasn't been called out, ~yet~...  Never the wisest idea to tempt fate either. :)

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Jimbean

I like a good hurricane.  They are lots of fun as long as they are not tearing your house apart

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bubba

Please provide your science so we can review grant provisions attendant and confirm lack of conflicts of interest. 1780 was by far the worst year for hurricane damage and deaths in this epoch. This has been well documented and I assume that you would not argue that equal technology existed in 1780 capable of picking up low pressure areas soon to be coming off the coast of Africa. 

Before “science” is blindly trusted because you read it on the internet, you may want to inquire about it’s legitimacy. My number has been called out and I am certainly not tempting fate. To question is the currency of the scientific method to fear questioning is the currency of totalitarianism…
 

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chinandega81
On 10/4/2021 at 10:37 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

Global warming / long term changing weather patterns directly linked to increased warming doesn't always mean " Every year from  yesterday last month  forward is going to bring 65 cat 5 Hurricanes to FL., each summer and is a complete conspiracy if it doesn't " :rolleyes::floor:  
  There will always be years someone else gets the brunt of any activity.. and FL.. or Texas is pretty much silent( and breathing a sigh of relief, not asking " Where's them "Canes? ".  Climate Change can include pronounced, year to year swings between patterns at times.. not just a perfectly predictable escalator -like ascent " up ".

As for the highlighted question, ask someone who went to school for.. and does the research 24-7-365 days a year ..not from the arm rest of the living room couch, or X news source but from a research vessel transversing the Arctic , or Gulf of Mexico taking and analyzing core samples of Mud or Ice from deep beneath the sea, etc. 

Will forecasting a particular season ( or pretty much anything else ) ever become 100% perfect / flawless?   Highly doubtful..  Still doesn't mean Climate Change ..and the negative effects of.. are false / made up to fulfill some imagined " agenda ".. 

Be glad your number hasn't been called out, ~yet~...  Never the wisest idea to tempt fate either. :)

Nice post. Some people legitimatly don't understand the difference between climate and weather. When we look at the overall trend, we see the increase. But some people focus on season to season or even decade to decade and over the course of history, that is just a blip in time.

I was watching a video on youtube about Soursop trees planted in the Upper Keys. They asked the property owner how the trees did in all the hurricanes. The response was surprising, she said they really havent had any bad hurricanes in the Upper Keys, they all went north to mainland South Florida or south to the Lower Keys. That doesn't mean she is in a protected area, it's just random and dumb luck, being in the middle of an active hurricane zone and period, yet her small slice of the world has gotten off unscathed (but not historically). To the outsider, the entire Keys and Florida coastline may seem like a sitting duck for storms, but most years, most of us get off without any tropical weather. The Miami area has gone about 15 years without a direct hit from a hurricane within 60 miles, that is the longest stretch in recorded history, for perspective.

Now if we asked someone in the Bahamas, or Lousianna, or the Panhandle about climate change and hurricane frequency and intensity, we would get different responses. I think certain weather patterns tend to set up and protect or punish given areas. Maybe in the past, the patterns were more progressive so it seemed like storms were more evenly distributed? Regardless, I think that if Andrew were to happen today, instead of 155mph, it would have been like a Dorian, near 185mph, and that would have been even worse. There seems to be cat 5 hurricanes in most seasons now, and that used to be pretty rare. We have seen stronger storms hit later in the season and furthur north. Lots of deep, warm water, more so than in the past. Obviously the gulf has always been warm, but if the warm water is deeper and more expansive, that is extra fuel.

 

I'm not sure why some people are so adamant in their denial of climate change. Is it a lack of understanding, a political agenda or just a desire to be be contrary? Regardless, it's great to read your grounded post on this topic.

 

Edited by chinandega81
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bubba

Temperatures and weather conditions change and have for the history of time on earth. What is concerning is lack of scrutiny and blind acceptance of what is presented as the “science” for the cause of the phenomena.

There is a great deal of manipulation in the data presented by “science” that is disingenuous at best. Simply stated, real science is far from consensus on the cause of climate change but the powers that control the information you receive on the internet and media do not allow it to be disseminated to the public. Make certain that the information disseminated as “science”is not promulgated to support an agenda. Unfortunately, this is nearly impossible at this time because of the massive campaign of censorship undertaken to apparently turn the public into useful idiots.

 

 

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