How Seasons are Predicted (A Potential Project)

[ColumbusPalm 215]

So I am very fascinated by weather/climate predictions. The change in ocean temperatures and how it relates to air flow and seasonal heat and cold based on geography. There is a lot out there that people put out with predictions based on how the month by month trends are happening with the ocean tilting towards El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions and how that may effect the upcoming summer or winter... What I would love to see is someone who has analyzed the data of these events every 1,2,5,10,20 year etc. periods to see if there is an identifiable trend to more accurately predict an upcoming season, or if weather is truly unpredictable no matter what climate is doing. 

 

If there is already an answer to this, please school me because this is the thought I am hung up on tonight lol...

 

Cheers,

 

Nate

Edited July 3, 2021 by ColumbusPalm

[kinzyjr 5,618]

There are a lot of weather gurus on here.  Unfortunately, I'm not one of them. :)  Hopefully some of the more seasoned can provide you with some links to research your interest.

[Silas_Sancona 8,124]

11 hours ago, ColumbusPalm said:

So I am very fascinated by weather/climate predictions. The change in ocean temperatures and how it relates to air flow and seasonal heat and cold based on geography. There is a lot out there that people put out with predictions based on how the month by month trends are happening with the ocean tilting towards El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions and how that may effect the upcoming summer or winter... What I would love to see is someone who has analyzed the data of these events every 1,2,5,10,20 year etc. periods to see if there is an identifiable trend to more accurately predict an upcoming season, or if weather is truly unpredictable no matter what climate is doing. 

 

If there is already an answer to this, please school me because this is the thought I am hung up on tonight lol...

 

Cheers,

 

Nate

Depending on what specific area of the subject you want to explore ( or all of it, lol ) some great people i follow via twitter, etc include:

** Judah Cohen, one of the most accomplished researchers as far as research into winter- season patterns ( Polar vortex, Strato. Warming episodes, general patterns for the season ) Also publishes a weekly /bi-weekly blog update on AER.

ENSO, Nino/Nina? Several people to follow who have been studying this from various ends..

* Daniel Swain, climatologist and creator of the Weather West Blog..

* Professor Katharine Hayhoe

* Mike Crimmins, UofA Climatologist/ researcher.. Primarily focused on the U.S> Southwest / Mexico

* Christopher L. Castro, UofA Professor/ researcher of Hydrology and various aspects of the U.S. Southwest/ Mexico Monsoon

* Brian Brettschneider, PhD climatologist.. Primarily focused on Alaska and the Arctic.. but hits on other aspects/ areas from time to time.  Another great person focused on research up in the arctic, Zack Labe.  ..Several others you'll see links to as well..

* Both Jeff Masters and Bob Henson are great long time climate/ Weather Gurus to check in with.

For Hurricane-related stuff.. Several guys i'll check in w/ from time to time:

* Eric Holthaus

* Eric Blake

* Levi Cowan

* Philip Klotzbach

I also follow several meteorologists / storm chasers as well...

Mike Olbinski, Warren Faidley, and Lori Grace Bailey are 3 of my top 10 storm chasers to check in with.. Warren Faidley has been chasing / documenting storms, Hurricane damage, etc.. since the 80's. He is responsible for capturing cover images used in the movie " Twister ". ( there may be another " twister- related " movie in the works as well. )

As far as the question(s)  numerous people have been collecting such data, though for specific areas of their research.. One can put all the puzzle pieces together fairly easily though...  and add more as new things are studied further. In that regard, Weather will always be weather ..and not always predictable, no matter how good the forecasting gets. That said, there are numerous things that can be / are being done to get as close to " perfect forecasts " as possible.

Hope this helps

Edited July 3, 2021 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[ColumbusPalm 215]

12 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Depending on what specific area of the subject you want to explore ( or all of it, lol ) some great people i follow via twitter, etc include:

** Judah Cohen, one of the most accomplished researchers as far as research into winter- season patterns ( Polar vortex, Strato. Warming episodes, general patterns for the season ) Also publishes a weekly /bi-weekly blog update on AER.

ENSO, Nino/Nina? Several people to follow who have been studying this from various ends..

* Daniel Swain, climatologist and creator of the Weather West Blog..

* Professor Katharine Hayhoe

* Mike Crimmins, UofA Climatologist/ researcher.. Primarily focused on the U.S> Southwest / Mexico

* Christopher L. Castro, UofA Professor/ researcher of Hydrology and various aspects of the U.S. Southwest/ Mexico Monsoon

* Brian Brettschneider, PhD climatologist.. Primarily focused on Alaska and the Arctic.. but hits on other aspects/ areas from time to time.  Another great person focused on research up in the arctic, Zack Labe.  ..Several others you'll see links to as well..

* Both Jeff Masters and Bob Henson are great long time climate/ Weather Gurus to check in with.

For Hurricane-related stuff.. Several guys i'll check in w/ from time to time:

* Eric Holthaus

* Eric Blake

* Levi Cowan

* Philip Klotzbach

I also follow several meteorologists / storm chasers as well...

Mike Olbinski, Warren Faidley, and Lori Grace Bailey are 3 of my top 10 storm chasers to check in with.. Warren Faidley has been chasing / documenting storms, Hurricane damage, etc.. since the 80's. He is responsible for capturing cover images used in the movie " Twister ". ( there may be another " twister- related " movie in the works as well. )

As far as the question(s)  numerous people have been collecting such data, though for specific areas of their research.. One can put all the puzzle pieces together fairly easily though...  and add more as new things are studied further. In that regard, Weather will always be weather ..and not always predictable, no matter how good the forecasting gets. That said, there are numerous things that can be / are being done to get as close to " perfect forecasts " as possible.

Hope this helps

These are great recommendations. Thank you!!

[Silas_Sancona 8,124]

15 hours ago, ColumbusPalm said:

These are great recommendations. Thank you!!

Couple other things i'd forgot to include for research purposes: 

Mike Crimmins, the climate researcher i'd referenced before, His wife Theresa ( Crimmins ) is the director for the USA National #Phenology Network as well.

Scripps Oceanography .. They have a twitter page you can check in on as well. Tons of links to other researchers doing work connected to the oceans..

May have to access in a round about way ( easiest, direct link might have been changed recently.. Have had to access a little differently when checking in recently ) but " State of the Ocean", created by NASA, PO. DAAC, and JPL is the best site - that i am aware of - for tracking Sea Surface Temps. / SST anomolies ( regionally and globally )