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ColumbusPalm

Where will climate be in another 10 years?

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ColumbusPalm

I am not all trying to be political about this, just wanted to open this if anyone has any predictions they wanted to share. 
 

When I was in high school over 10 years ago, I overwintered a Trachy in, at the time, a zone 5b. Now that same area in NW OH is a z6b. 
 

Crazy in my lifetime seeing the USDA zone map change like that. Even in Dave Francko’s book, the old USDA map is in there. Makes me think growing the truly hardy palms in this area may be a challenge now, but very rewarding in a decade.

 

What do you all think? 

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Jimhardy

I think that I can say that my zone is 7b now but thats all it is, someone saying

something, go ask the people in Texas that froze their ceiling fans off about it.

This post should be in the Weather/Climate section.

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ColumbusPalm
3 minutes ago, Jimhardy said:

I think that I can say that my zone is 7b now but thats all it is, someone saying

something, go ask the people in Texas that froze their ceiling fans off about it.

This post should be in the Weather/Climate section.

My mistake! I only ever come to the cold hardy page and didn’t know there was a climate page. 

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Jimhardy

I get really bitchy when I come to the palm forums and someone is talking about

GW or bragging about getting the jab....this is kind of an escape so I don't do well with these posts -sorry:wacko:

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ColumbusPalm
17 minutes ago, Jimhardy said:

I get really bitchy when I come to the palm forums and someone is talking about

GW or bragging about getting the jab....this is kind of an escape so I don't do well with these posts -sorry:wacko:

I get it! Hobbies should be something enjoyable and an escape. I know the topic is in a political bucket so wanted to be careful with it. I've been trying to figure out how to delete it or move it to the climate page. 

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Teegurr

Personally, in 10 years, there probably won't be much of a difference here in College Station, but average annual minimums might get closer to a real, solid 9a. As College Station is growing in size and more buildings are being built, there might be a UHI microclimate in northgate pushing the city center to a weak 9b.

The real warming up will occur in the northern states, I'd say. Chicago might be in zone 7 in 50 years, who knows.

NYC is making its way to 8a, and might get there in the next 10-20 years.

 

 

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JLM

In 10 years will probably be a solid 9a here, Queens might have a small shot at long term in 15-20 years here, just a guess. I wont be in this area in 15-20 years so it doesnt matter to me lol

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chinandega81

Probably similar to what we have today. Warming vs. weather is very different. I'm sure if you look at statisctics, there will be warmer temps. But I think in the real world, we will still have the same cold snaps as always....just hotter and longer hot periods that bump up the averages.

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ColumbusPalm
3 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Probably similar to what we have today. Warming vs. weather is very different. I'm sure if you look at statisctics, there will be warmer temps. But I think in the real world, we will still have the same cold snaps as always....just hotter and longer hot periods that bump up the averages.

This could be helpful for some of the hardier Sabals that people in Z6/7 want to grow. They seem to need the extra hot/long summers to thrive but can shrug off 0F temps if given the heat in growing season. 
 

The northern landscape could look quite different in that time. It’ll be interesting to watch as it develops. 

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Jimbean

Pure speculation. 

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chinandega81
3 hours ago, ColumbusPalm said:

This could be helpful for some of the hardier Sabals that people in Z6/7 want to grow. They seem to need the extra hot/long summers to thrive but can shrug off 0F temps if given the heat in growing season. 
 

The northern landscape could look quite different in that time. It’ll be interesting to watch as it develops. 

It very well could, but it might take more than just a decade. Remember, regardless of climate change, we still have shorter days and a lower sun angle in the winter. Even if the Artic didn't continue to freeze over in the winter (which it will, it just does so for less time), there is plenty of land in Canada and Russia to be a factory for cold air. For example, I don't know the freeze dates of the Artic Ocean, but let's say it's November. We already have cold fronts in October...even with the Artic Ocrean unfrozen. So I don't see cold snaps going away if the Artic waters stay ice free for a linger period of time. What I think might happen will be these wild fluctuations like we saw in Texas in February, where the extreme cold is bottled up and it's very warm elsewhere and suddenly Artic conditions come much furthur south than what they normally do. In other words, less predictability. Winter has historically been cold in the north and milder in the south. In the future, the north and the south might see more of their neighbor's temperature extremes, if that makes sense. It strikes me as more stressful for plants....because the warming won't be uniform or just a matter of zone creep. Granted, some areas may see that, but I don't see that being something that most places will benefit from. Probably more extreme winter storms, severe weather, drought, fire season, cold snaps, heat waves. Warmer temps on average, but with the same intensity of cold snaps as of today.

Now, if the question is extrapolated beyond 10 years, let's say 100, when most of us won't be around, perhaps by then the world will be warmer and there might be a lack of the present day cold we know. But that is just my speculation...I think that type of warming will take more time. In my life time I have seen tornado ally shift from the plains to the south, which is sort of counterintuitive. Hurricanes are more intense, more frequent...but the day to day weather strikes me as rather similar to what it's always been. Warmer winters in South Florida, for example, might just be due to increased growth and urbanization...who knows? It will be interesting to see what the future holds. I'm not sure why people are so reluctant to address this topic, it is quite interesting.

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Silas_Sancona
9 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

It very well could, but it might take more than just a decade. Remember, regardless of climate change, we still have shorter days and a lower sun angle in the winter. Even if the Artic didn't continue to freeze over in the winter (which it will, it just does so for less time), there is plenty of land in Canada and Russia to be a factory for cold air. For example, I don't know the freeze dates of the Artic Ocean, but let's say it's November. We already have cold fronts in October...even with the Artic Ocrean unfrozen. So I don't see cold snaps going away if the Artic waters stay ice free for a linger period of time. What I think might happen will be these wild fluctuations like we saw in Texas in February, where the extreme cold is bottled up and it's very warm elsewhere and suddenly Artic conditions come much furthur south than what they normally do. In other words, less predictability. Winter has historically been cold in the north and milder in the south. In the future, the north and the south might see more of their neighbor's temperature extremes, if that makes sense. It strikes me as more stressful for plants....because the warming won't be uniform or just a matter of zone creep. Granted, some areas may see that, but I don't see that being something that most places will benefit from. Probably more extreme winter storms, severe weather, drought, fire season, cold snaps, heat waves. Warmer temps on average, but with the same intensity of cold snaps as of today.

Now, if the question is extrapolated beyond 10 years, let's say 100, when most of us won't be around, perhaps by then the world will be warmer and there might be a lack of the present day cold we know. But that is just my speculation...I think that type of warming will take more time. In my life time I have seen tornado ally shift from the plains to the south, which is sort of counterintuitive. Hurricanes are more intense, more frequent...but the day to day weather strikes me as rather similar to what it's always been. Warmer winters in South Florida, for example, might just be due to increased growth and urbanization...who knows? It will be interesting to see what the future holds. I'm not sure why people are so reluctant to address this topic, it is quite interesting.

Yep, very unlikely too much will change, in a dramatic sense, in 10 years, though longer term trends will likely continue in a generally warmer direction..  By 2050?, more likely you'll see bigger effects, mixed in among your everyday, typical weather.. Beyond that?  For the most part, will only be relevant if you were born after 2000, though who knows.. with much research into extending the human lifespan, someone born in 1980 might be able to live a healthy and active life well past the century mark, so..

As far as those rare, spectacular cold outbreaks, like Texas experienced this past winter?  They'll continue - for now.. At some point however it is possible - Emphasize possible-  a point is reached where no one south of .. -lets use northern Nebraska for this example-  experiences more than say 3 weeks total where night time lows in the December- March time frame reach, or go lower than 15F or so..  and places like all low elevation areas of California, Arizona and points eastward might only see a night or two at/below 29-30F once every 25-40 years, & places like El Paso flirt with zone 9b most years. This would be due to a new equilibrium being reached where there just really isn't as much cold air available any more. Not likely something that would occur, -if it does- anytime soon..  The " mostly warm/ warmer.. but occasionally quite volatile " scenario is the most likely for awhile.  

As far as why some people avoid acknowledging the subject.. esp. intentionally, some people just don't comprehend our impact on -everything-  Heck, many people don't seem to understand that if we keep freaking out about bugs, let alone bugs doing what bugs do, choosing to assume that nuking everything is the only solution, instead of understanding choosing that option is exactly how everything gets thrown out of balance,   we're screwed,   Royally..   Forget having time to enjoy a " garden "

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Sabal_Louisiana

I don't know about 10 years from now but currently, The World is only 0.1C warmer than the 1979-2000 average.

Capture.JPG

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Teegurr
3 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I don't know about 10 years from now but currently, The World is only 0.1C warmer than the 1979-2000 average.

Capture.JPG

Yeah man, but we don't live in Antarctica. A lot of us live in the Northern Hemisphere, and it's warming up pretty fast. Interesting that the Southern Hemisphere is cooler, though.

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ColumbusPalm

Our low last year was 9F. I do wonder what I could’ve gotten away with the last season. Seems like this winter could be even milder. 

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Sabal_Louisiana
On 6/6/2021 at 11:31 PM, Teegurr said:

Yeah man, but we don't live in Antarctica. A lot of us live in the Northern Hemisphere, and it's warming up pretty fast. Interesting that the Southern Hemisphere is cooler, though.

Good point

I follow these anomaly maps from time to time and the cold Antarctic right now is a regional fluctuation. A few months ago, the Antarctic was warmer than usual and the net Global temp was still only about 0.2 to 0.3C above the 20 year mean (1979-2000).

However, I have almost never seen the Arctic trend colder than the 1979-2000 base, It has been consistently warm for a long time now. The 1.2+ on June 6 is actually the closest to 'normal' that I've seen in some time. Typically, it had been running around 4 deg Celsius positive.

Right now the sea ice pack in the Arctic is holding up fairly well. Extent of decline has been slower than in previous years but that could change later this Summer. 

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