Where is the Rainy Season (Florida)?

[chinandega81]

I can't remember a dry and cool May...much less late May...in South Florid. Highs have been in the low 80s the past 10 days, with low humidy and of course, no rain other than a few random sprinkles just enough to get the car messy.

Even the ocean temps are below average, with all this wind as of late.

Does anyone look at the models and that can tell me if and when they are showing and increase in moisture for Florida? I don't see anything on the local 10 day forecast....it seems like we are stuck in a lovely, early Spring pattern which is great however, my tropicals want and need humidity and rain!!

[JASON M]

Ocala and Naples both have 40% chances of storms beginning Sunday; Miami on Tuesday, and are all forecast as such through Wednesday. 

[JLM]

Looks like there might be a rain chance towards the end of May but it doesnt look like much of a chance. The GFS is showing up to 2 inches of rain through the next 384 hours (~16 days), and the CMC is showing less than half an inch through 10 days. Doesnt look like much for at least the next 10 days across the whole state of Florida.

[bubba]

Windy, dry, low humidity and cooler. I have observed that when we have a warm winter, we seem to have a cool and dry May.

 I do not remember this much wind!

[Hombre de Palmas]

The last two mornings have been flirting with record lows for the date (60-61°F -16°C) at my place.  The highs are low to mid 80's but with very low dew points.

Everything is bone dry. I spend 2-4 hours a day watering 5 or 6 days a week, and I still have to make compromises and prioritize. I like to use sprinklers when I can, but the wind has been so bad, the sprinklers I have just waste water, so it's ALL hand watering for me.

The wind has really exacerbated the lack of rain.

[chinandega81]

It was in the 60s this morning in Miami....very dry airmass cools off fast without a night time sea breeze. I see inland parts of the peninsula near Immoaklee are closer to 60. Pretty unsuaul...and so consistently...for this time of year. The weather man just said no sight of the rainy season at all in the forecast.

[JohnAndSancho]

East Texas is taking all the rain. Sorry. I wish I could trade some rain for a good Cuban sandwich. 

[kinzyjr]

8 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

It was in the 60s this morning in Miami....very dry airmass cools off fast without a night time sea breeze. I see inland parts of the peninsula near Immoaklee are closer to 60. Pretty unsuaul...and so consistently...for this time of year. The weather man just said no sight of the rainy season at all in the forecast.

We've been getting much the same up this way, except without the water modified high temperatures.  Basically, 90s during the day and 60s at night.  When I look at the forecast, it always has rain 5-7 days away, but then by the time we get there, the forecast has been modified so rain chances are at or below 10%.  We had a few days where it clouded up and looked like rain, but we didn't get anything other than a few sprinkles that, like you said, didn't do much else other than put spots on a freshly washed car.

[sonoranfans]

yep windy and dry, but not really cooler(high 80's mostly, with lows 65-69F).  Combined with sandy soil things are dessicating quickly the last 3 weeks.  Sunny means hot for plants as they heat up durig photosythsis and transpiration is higher in full sun.  I'll take some partly cloudy days with some rain please... Rain in summer means temperature drops here near the coast, full sun means higher high temps.  I guess the wind is keeping the gulf temps down a bit, but my palms are not happy without extra watering now.

[PalmatierMeg]

We've had 1/10" of rain since March. Normally in May the clouds start building and by this date rainy season is beginning inland and on the East Coast. Rainy season gets underway on the West Coast by early to mid-June. But no a drop anywhere. I'm afraid to do a lot of palm repotting until we get a reliable source of rain. The canal is drying out at its western end.

[JLM]

This is from floridadisaster.org, at least a Moderate fire risk state-wide today, Very High risk in red, covers a large part of the state.

 

[palmsOrl]

I'm waiting...Average start in the Orlando area is May 23 if I recall correctly.

[Hombre de Palmas]

Had a moderately heavy shower that lasted 10 minutes and then another 30 minutes of lighter showers that amounted to .37 inches (9.4MM) of rain yesterday evening. It really wasn't forecast.

I see that this morning both the National Weather Service and Weather Underground are more bullish on rain chances over the next week than they were yesterday. I noticed that in the last two days afternoon clouds are beginning to build, and dew points are rising. After a week of cool nights, I awoke to a warm, humid morning today.

 

Maybe...just maybe.

 

[kinzyjr]

Some parts of town got rain yesterday.  Unfortunately, I wasn't in that part.  NWS didn't see a large chance of rain and weather.com fluctuated between a 25% chance and 40% chance.  There is a small chance of a shower today, but tomorrow has a better chance.

2 hours ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

After a week of cool nights, I awoke to a warm, humid morning today.

It was definitely balmy this morning.

 

[chinandega81]

This morning and evening were very pleasant and still dry here. Low humidity for South Florida, with just a few low-topped showers and storms over the Everglades late this PM that fizzled out in place. Forecasts calls for decent rains by Monday though...fingers crossed.

[Hombre de Palmas]

Snippet from the National Weather Service synopsis for my area this morning...

Overall, rain chances will be
at or above normal (50-60 PoPs) which is a strong signal that the
Florida rain machine is cranking up. Although a false start to
the wet season occasionally happens, that doesn`t look to be the
case this year, at least at this time.

All the usual forecast caveats, but I'm giving the hose the day off!

 

[kinzyjr]

Finally got some liquid sunshine:

[NOT A TA]

Light sprinkle for an hour or so at dusk here today.  The sun's been brutal with no clouds while I'm fixing my house but I really don't want any rain right now even though the plants could sure use it.

[chinandega81]

Well, yesterday storms were forecast and they were a bust. Just a light rain shower in the  morning. Today's forecast was supposed to have 2 rounds of rain...one in the AM and the PM storms. No rain this AM and the forecast was revised for the storms to form inland and go west as the day progresses...and the entire forecast now shows a stronger easterly flow...so it looks like the rains are starting up, but mainly for the inland and west coast only.  

I don't ever remember having a dry Memorial Day Weekend...and no rain for the populated areas of SE Florida even in the forecast beyond unless some showers blow in off the ocean. I guess we will keep waiting for PM storms and enjoying tropical flower trees in the meantime.

[Hombre de Palmas]

3 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

Well, yesterday storms were forecast and they were a bust. Just a light rain shower in the  morning. Today's forecast was supposed to have 2 rounds of rain...one in the AM and the PM storms. No rain this AM and the forecast was revised for the storms to form inland and go west as the day progresses...and the entire forecast now shows a stronger easterly flow...so it looks like the rains are starting up, but mainly for the inland and west coast only.  

I don't ever remember having a dry Memorial Day Weekend...and no rain for the populated areas of SE Florida even in the forecast beyond unless some showers blow in off the ocean. I guess we will keep waiting for PM storms and enjoying tropical flower trees in the meantime.

It was a bust here as well. There was a lot of lightning and thunder but I measured only .07 inch of rain.

According to the Weather Service we have 30-50% chance of rain all this week, but based on recent trends I'm not sanguine that actually means we will see a useful rain event.

I know one thing for sure. It will eventually start raining, and then it won't stop.

[JLM]

Models arent showing too much rain over the next 10 days (1-3 in parts of the state), the 16 day GFS has never been reliable, my expectations were low for 16 day rainfall forecasts from the GFS but this latest run hit lower.
Shows a hurricane/tropical storm affecting literally the whole state LOL
Most of yall know already that these are fantasy runs.

[Reyes Vargas]

The Florida weather is starting to looking just like our Texas weather.  We would get forecasts for rain but we all knew that it wasn't going to rain and sure enough it didn't.  We had 9.5" of rain in May which I don't think I have ever seen or remember. 

Just woke up and more rain is coming in.

Hope you guys get rain soon.

 

[JLM]

Hope everyone gets a good soaking today, by the looks of it the chances are pretty good!
 

 

[chinandega81]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

Hope everyone gets a good soaking today, by the looks of it the chances are pretty good!
 

 

In Miami there have been brief 30 second downpours off and on today. Not enough to even make a puddle. These showers are isolated and very widely scattered. The wet forecasts are over exagerating what is really happening. Precip totals at my house are close to a quarter of an inch since last weekend, despite all the "rain." Granted, some spots got closer to 1 or 2 inches, but this is just a finnicky upper level low. Even the air is cool, the dewpoints are lowish...upper 60s. No true summer heat or humidity yet and the surf temps are still below average. Hopefully we can get out summer t storms soon. How is it in the Panhandle?

[kinzyjr]

Getting a few doses of liquid sunshine today in Lakeland, Bartow, and Lake Wales.

[PalmatierMeg]

Storms are doing what they usually do at the beginning of rainy season - form and take their rain inland while thumbing their nose at the coast. We've had a total of just under 1" in the last week. My drought tolerant palms are starting to turn brown.

[Hombre de Palmas]

We received .51-.43-1.13 inches over the last three days for a total of just over 2 inches (50MM) but it appears just a bit inland of here spots picked up substantially more.

We've had little thunder, and the duration of any of the numerous individual showers we've experienced have been less than 30 minutes with most of them being 5-10 minute downpours. The dew points are very high but the heat is not accompanying the humidity. 

Not full blown rainy season yet, but some of the signs are there. 

 

[kinzyjr]

I think Ft. Meade probably got the most rain here in Polk, but certainly thankful for what we got.

[JLM]

10 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

In Miami there have been brief 30 second downpours off and on today. Not enough to even make a puddle. These showers are isolated and very widely scattered. The wet forecasts are over exagerating what is really happening. Precip totals at my house are close to a quarter of an inch since last weekend, despite all the "rain." Granted, some spots got closer to 1 or 2 inches, but this is just a finnicky upper level low. Even the air is cool, the dewpoints are lowish...upper 60s. No true summer heat or humidity yet and the surf temps are still below average. Hopefully we can get out summer t storms soon. How is it in the Panhandle?

Up here we had a lot of rain last month and the month before. We are a few inches ABOVE average on rainfall so far this year. Had a nice long break from the rain until a few days ago and today, i picked up about half an inch today from a pop up shower along the sea breeze front, heard one rumble of thunder. As for heat, ive hit 90F a couple times recently, but the humidity was low so it didnt really feel like summer. Humidity is back now but the heat is....missing.  

Edited June 4, 2021 by JLM

[chinandega81]

All in all, this seems like a dry season transition to wet season out of early May....it seems like statewide the weather is delayed about a month. Still no 90s in the forecast in Miami...and that's not because of rain. Just 87ish with a 30% chance of AM or night time showers throught the 10 day forecast. I think the cool surf temps are delaying the onset of widespread and more numerous PM thunderstorms. I'm glad some of you have gotten some good rains though. Early June is usually a very rainy period in Miami, I don't remember a dry late May-early June, ever-much less with no good rains in the extended forecast. Hopefully this summer will be long and have a lot of rain despite it's timid start-

[PalmatierMeg]

Just started raining. Hallelujah! It may be shortlived but if we can eke out another 1/2" I'm elated.

[JJPalmer]

Somehow I’ve received a grand 0.00” here in St. Pete so far since April 21.  Just a mile away received 2” last night.  Quite an unlucky draw. 

[PalmatierMeg]

Actually got 1.5" last night. Ecstatic!

[Looking Glass]

Finally got a some hard showers the last few days.  Not a ton, but enough to keep everyone happy, and get the grass to green up uniformly.  One of the Satakentias even popped open it’s giant spear, that it’s been holding onto for two months, in celebration!  

[kinzyjr]

It just started raining, so this makes four days in a row.  The future forecast shows reduced rain chances the rest of the week, though.

[JJPalmer]

29 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

It just started raining, so this makes four days in a row.  The future forecast shows reduced rain chances the rest of the week, though.

Latest forecasters discussion from the NWS. Always an interesting read. 
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[AnTonY]

I feel like "seasons" have been out of whack over the past couple of years across the Eastern US in general. Maybe the entire country.

Spring in winter. Winter like patterns and temps deep into May w/ daytime 50s down to the Carolinas. List goes on.

 

Edited June 7, 2021 by AnTonY

[JJPalmer]

Still not a drop of rain at my place in St. Pete. Pretty remarkable. 

[kinzyjr]

48 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

I feel like "seasons" have been out of whack over the past couple of years across the Eastern US in general. Maybe the entire country.

Spring in winter. Winter like patterns and temps deep into May w/ daytime 50s down to the Carolinas. List goes on.

 

It has been kind of odd to have all of these late season "cold fronts" the last two years.  Seems like the patterns are shifted forward a few months with the heat we've been having in the fall.

42 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Still not a drop of rain at my place in St. Pete. Pretty remarkable. 

Pretty astounding that you're area is so dry this late in the year.

[JLM]

16 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

Still not a drop of rain at my place in St. Pete. Pretty remarkable. 

You didnt get a good soaking lastnight? Radar looked like there was quite a lot of storms in the Tampa/St. Pete area overnight.