Jump to content
JLM

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Recommended Posts

PalmatierMeg

Shades of Irma! This is the track du jour. Fortunately, it is July not Sept. so we, i.e., the State of FL, likely will face a TS or cat1. I got seedlings to pot but have to wait until mid-week. First drought, now storms. A palm grower's worries are never done. Eyes on the skies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Elsa is now expected to be a hurricane before making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast. As such, Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from Hillsborough County to Dixie County along the immediate coastline. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Monroe County to Wakulla County, and inland to Wayne County Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from McIntosh County Georgia to Charleston County South Carolina. 

Areas in the Hurricane Warning will experience tropical storm conditions, along with hurricane force gusts at times. Sustained hurricane force winds will be around the landfall point, and that is still up in the air. Landfall could be anywhere from Bradenton to southeastern Taylor County.

Storm Surge is expected to be in the 1-2 ft range from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River in the panhandle, 1-3 ft from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach in SW Florida, 2-4 ft from Bonita Beach to Englewood and from the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, and 3-5 ft from Englewood to the Aucilla River. There is also expected to be 1-2 ft of surge from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to the South Santee River in South Carolina.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is a big concern across the Florida Peninsula, 4-6" of rain is expected in and around the Port Charlotte, Sarasota, and Tampa Bay area with isolated higher amounts of 6-10". Areas in the Big Bend northward into Southeast Georgia are expecting 4-6". 2-4" is expected from Southwest Florida to Southern North Carolina. There is also a moderate flash flooding risk across western central Florida through tomorrow morning, this shifts north into the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast. An elevated flash flooding risk extends from Southwest Florida to Southeast Virginia.

The tornado threat with Elsa is not overly concerning, but the threat is not 0%. There is a Level 2/5 risk from southern Florida to northeast Florida through tomorrow morning. A Tornado Watch is in effect from the Florida Keys to Polk/Osceola Counties through 11 PM EDT.

The good thing is, after Elsa it looks like we are headed into a nice quiet period! A supressed phase of the MJO is going to move through the Atlantic basin through mid month, but we begin to see some more rising motion towards the end of July going into early August, which should be the beginning of the most intense part of the hurricane season. Make sure to prepare if you havent already, as Elsa looks to only be the beginning of what's left to come August-October.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Ok well Elsa is a hurricane, so it could be a little bit stronger than 75 mph at landfall, could be up to 80 mph at landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr

We're under tornado watch.  Hopefully nothing serious happens to anyone out of this mess.

image.png.abc303a77050522f6954d969f028a873.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Elsa weakened back down to a TS, although winds are still very strong. The difference between 70 mph and 75 mph is virtually none.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

New area of interest out in the tropical Atlantic has a 20% chance of development through 5 days, before it reaches cool waters near the Cabo Verde Islands. Hope everybody enjoyed the nice long break, because the Atlantic will be waking up over the next few weeks, and when she's awake, she'll start cranking out the big canes. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Looked around but could not find any data suggesting that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was dissipating...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looking Glass
2 hours ago, JLM said:

New area of interest out in the tropical Atlantic has a 20% chance of development through 5 days, before it reaches cool waters near the Cabo Verde Islands. Hope everybody enjoyed the nice long break, because the Atlantic will be waking up over the next few weeks, and when she's awake, she'll start cranking out the big canes. 

Multiple storms start cranking in August and September normally. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

However, does “normally” include years with pervasive Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at the level we are currently experiencing? Once again, historically the Cape Verde nuclear warheads only strike PB County between Aug 15-Sept 15 (exception 1928/Sept 16). 
 

As an example, Irma was a Cape Verde that developed from a tropical wave off Cape Verde on August 30, 2017 before hitting Cudjoe Key in the Straits of Florida on September 10, 2017. That is a twelve (12) day runway. 
 

Accordingly, the key time frame for a Cape Verde to hit PB County would require commencement as a wave off Africa between August 3 and September 3. We are there now in real time.

But what with SAL…

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM
1 hour ago, bubba said:

However, does “normally” include years with pervasive Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at the level we are currently experiencing? Once again, historically the Cape Verde nuclear warheads only strike PB County between Aug 15-Sept 15 (exception 1928/Sept 16). 
 

As an example, Irma was a Cape Verde that developed from a tropical wave off Cape Verde on August 30, 2017 before hitting Cudjoe Key in the Straits of Florida on September 10, 2017. That is a twelve (12) day runway. 
 

Accordingly, the key time frame for a Cape Verde to hit PB County would require commencement as a wave off Africa between August 3 and September 3. We are there now in real time.

But what with SAL…

 

 

Dry air appears to not be as big of an issue for the busiest part of the season. With the standing wave over Africa and the Indian Ocean, mor moisture will be present over Africa which should limit the SAL to some extent. This standing wave will also allow the shear to calm down. Peak season, we will be in MJO Phase 4, which spells trouble for the western Atlantic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

You can have the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictor and I will take the August 15-September 15 cracker lore regarding the time frame for the Cape Verde Storms to hit South Florida. If we do get a Cape Verde that matches this window and provided the Cape Verde hits the coordinates of Herbert’s Box 1, then I will flee!
 

Generalized predictions of pending doom seem to have inculcated our entire culture. I will drop back and punt and watch the waves off Cape Verde with the certainty of Herbert’s Boxes 1 and 2 and be more than happy to ride out an October Sidewinder...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM
2 hours ago, bubba said:

You can have the Madden-Julian Oscillation predictor and I will take the August 15-September 15 cracker lore regarding the time frame for the Cape Verde Storms to hit South Florida. If we do get a Cape Verde that matches this window and provided the Cape Verde hits the coordinates of Herbert’s Box 1, then I will flee!
 

Generalized predictions of pending doom seem to have inculcated our entire culture. I will drop back and punt and watch the waves off Cape Verde with the certainty of Herbert’s Boxes 1 and 2 and be more than happy to ride out an October Sidewinder...

Thing is though, this MJO phase will hit at the end of August and beginning of September, which fuels your thoughts here. Not gonna be good, especially considering the position of the Bermuda high. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Your dire prediction adds to my optimism. The Cape Verde wave off Africa must roll sometime between Aug. 3-Sept 3 considering a 12 day runway. If your Madden-Julian Oscillation only ramps in late August to early September then So Fl's chances of a receiving the gift of a nuclear tipped Cape Verde are reduced substantially (Aug 15-Sept 15).

Add the necessity of the Cape Verde having to travel through Herbert's Box 1 and I am feeling even better. My concern is what happens if your prediction of the timing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is flawed and actually cranks mid-August? The doom and horror! Great for the talking heads always on the lookout for that "impressive storm" headed to your front door (good for advertising)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Two areas to watch now, as Invest 91L is now gone.

Area 1 has a 40% chance within the next 5 days to develop, the NHC notes that environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development once it moves offshore. As of right now, the wave looks very potent, but like most other waves, it will probably just go poof once it hits water at first. Although, with conditions that are conducive for development, all it would take is a little bit of time before its ready to develop into a Tropical Depression. This one should be watched, but it does not appear to be a big threat at this time.

Area 2 has a 20% chance to develop through 5 days as it heads towards the west northwest, conditions could be marginally conducive for slow development as it nears the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into early next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six was designated just east of the Lesser Antilles earlier today. The storm has not developed a well defined center yet, so therefore it hasnt been upgraded to a Tropical Depression yet. The system is still expected to become our next named storm, Fred, as it moves over the northeastern Caribbean. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles and the Greater Antilles, with Tropical Storm Warnings just being issued for parts Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Six is expected to move over Hispaniola, how long the center stays over this landmass will determine what comes out on the other side. Do we will have a storm? Do we have an open tropical wave? That is unknown at this point in time. Once the system has moved offshore between the Bahamas and Cuba, the system will face more dry air, and this time will face some westerly shear due to an upper level low over Florida. The system is currently forecasted to survive this, and is expected to continue gradual strengthening once it makes it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is basically a bathtub filled with warm water. Not only is the water warm, but this warm water also goes deeper into the water, its not just at the surface. Any storm that finds itself over the Gulf this season will have ample amounts of energy to work with. This system's life beyond Hispaniola is HIGHLY uncertain right now. Regardless of whether or not this recieves a name, interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, Florida, and the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system, and stay tuned for updates and changes in the forecast. For those in Florida wondering what kind of impact this may bring, one thing is certain, and that is rainfall, any other threat is unknown and highly uncertain right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Latest Tropical Tidbits run shows low pressure (red) hitting in Mexico below RGV around August 31, 2021 and low pressure(red) off So. Fl. Coast (closer to Bahamas) moving with Gulf Stream September 5, 2021 and making potential impact towards N. Fl. September 6, 2021 and then effecting Coastal Ga., SC, NC and areas north September 7, 2021. 
 

General Cape Verde activity seems less robust this year so far with less activity than normal. Not certain why. Can change on a dime...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Heres an update on the current stuff in the Atlantic and also get up to date with everything that has already happened. My last update was about the beginnings of Tropical Storm Fred
Fred peaked at about 65 mph at landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida. Pressure dipped down to 994 mb. Fred began as a Tropical Storm that made landfall on the island of Hispaniola. Fred was weakened, almost beyond redevelopment. Once the system moved off the island is struggled, and never redeveloped into a storm again near Cuba like originally thought. Instead, Fred drifted inland over Cuba. Once Fred made it offshore, it redeveloped in the semi favorable Gulf conditions, peaking as a strong Tropical Storm at landfall.

The next storm, Hurricane Grace, was a powerful Category 3 hurricane at peak, with winds of 125 mph and a minimum pressure of 962 mb. Grace struggled in the northeastern Caribbean, ASCAT passes and and Recon data indicated that Grace may not have been a Tropical Storm until it was south of Hispaniola. Grace continued organizing as it moved westward, and eventually made landfall in Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. The island actually seemed to help Grace rather than hurt it, and Grace went on to become the 2nd hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Grace made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm moved inland while gradually weakening. Once Grace moved into the Bay of Campeche, it re organized itself in prime conditions for strengthening. As the storm neared the coast, its began to rapidly intensify. Grace then became the first major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The storm moved inland and died of relatively quickly, but its remnants survived into the Eastern Pacific, where it redeveloped into Tropical Storm Marty. Marty is now a remnant low, and the NHC is no longer issuing advisories on Marty.

Last but not least, Hurricane Henri. Henri began from a severe weather event over the Great Lakes region. Henri developed once it entered the warm waters of the northern Atlantic. Henri was a "pop up" storm, no model forecasted its existence until it was already an Invest area. Henri was organized pretty well considering the northerly shear it faced for the first part of its life. Henri strengthened slowly as it moved south near Bermuda. Once south of Bermuda, Henri was holding steady near hurricane intensity, and became the 3rd hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it began moving north. Henri did not get as strong as forecasted, but it was still a minimal Category 1. Henri prompted Hurricane Warnings along the coasts of New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The storm began slowing down as it moved north of the Gulf Stream, which caused it to weaken to a 70 mph Tropical Storm. Henri held at 70 mph until landfall in Rhode Island. Once inland, Henri swirled around New England before merging with a cut off low and exiting.


Now to talk about our current disturbances. I am going to start with 97L and work my way to 99L. 99L will likely be the longest paragraph on this post.

Invest 97L: This invest area, located over the Main Development Region, has a HIGH (80%) chance of development through the next 5 days. The system is expected to remain out to sea, and could become quite strong out there if some models verify.

Invest 98L: This invest's future is uncertain, the wave has a 30% chance of development through the next 5 days. It is also expected to curve out to sea.

Invest 99L: This one has my attention, and everyone in its path should pay attention as well. Invest 99L, located over the south central Caribbean Sea, has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days. As of right now, it is too uncertain to say what will happen, but i will lay out the possibilities here. The first and least likely possibility is that this system plows into Central America and never develops. This would certainly be the best outcome, although impacts will still occur in Central America. The last and most likely possibility is that this develops into a tropical cyclone. There are a few questions as to where this wave will develop, as a CCKW that is parked over Central America is forming a gyre. This wave should become a part of this gyre, and it is unclear where within the gyre this system develops. A system that forms further south just north of Honduras would likely move inland over Belize and Mexico, then not have much of a chance of development over the BoC. The third scenario is this forms further north in the NW Caribbean and hits the Yucatan Peninsula, which would cause disruption to the development process. A weaker storm at first would tend to go more south and west towards Mexico, but a hurricane would still not be out of the question for this scenario. The third scenario, and the most disturbing one, is a system that develops further north and misses the Yucatan alltogether. This would allow for a storm to continue developing and strengthening, and in this case, a major hurricane would be in the cards. There are still questions to these scenarios, as it also depends on how fast this develops. The earlier it develops, the more likely it is to take the northermost scenario. The later the development, the more likely it is to take the southernmost scenario. As of right now, it appears to potentially be trying to take either the second or third scenario, as the invest is already trying to develop. As of right now, models will be switching back and forth, they will flip and flop a lot until we get a closed and trackable circulation. Until then, a great amount of uncertainty remains. Regardless of the amount of uncertainty though, anyone in Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi should be getting ready to prepare for a hurricane. Points east of Mississippi is currently not in the cards, but things can change, so remain vigilant and aware, be ready to act if needed. This includes Alabama and northwest Florida. And if someone reads this and prepares for a hurricane, then a hurricane never forms, dont be mad at me. Luck favors the prepared, you would rather be safe than sorry.

Edited by JLM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

This is an increasingly dangerous situation for the Gulf Coast. PT in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama really need to pay close attention to this. East of Alabama should monitor the situation. If i were anybody from Texas to Florida (i sort of am), i would be getting ready now. Prepare for a major hurricane, not a tropical storm. Check and see if you are in an evacuation zone, have your hurricane plan in place. The intensity ceiling with this system is ridiculously high. DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS SYSTEM!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

99L has now been dubbed Tropical Depression Nine. Forecast advisory from the NHC to come within the next 30-45 minutes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

First forecast for TD9. Peak of 110 mph expected (high end Category 2). This forecasted intensity will probably go up. East Texas to East Mississippi in line here, Louisiana more likely at the moment. Have a hurricane plan in place!
cone graphic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCA_Palm_Fan
14 hours ago, JLM said:

First forecast for TD9. Peak of 110 mph expected (high end Category 2). This forecasted intensity will probably go up. East Texas to East Mississippi in line here, Louisiana more likely at the moment. Have a hurricane plan in place!
cone graphic

Been watching this all week.   Not looking too good for LA/MS/AL, or even the western FL Panhandle.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JohnAndSancho

I'm in East Tx, almost in the middle between Houston and Dallas. I manage a hotel here, and our phones have been blowing up with from people as far as Lake Charles booking rooms for evacuation from Ida now that she's projected to be a Cat4 at landfall. I'm sold out from Sunday to Tues. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCA_Palm_Fan

Hurricane Ida is now unfortinately a MONSTER storm.   She underwent rapid intensification last night in the span of about 6 hours or so.  Max sustained winds are now 150 MPH (very high end CAT 4), with a central pressure now down to 928MB.    I feel very bad for Louisiana as this will be there 5th landfalling hurricane  within one calendar  year.   They just can't seem to get a break.    She is a beautiful storm on satellite, but underneath she is a monster.  

 

 

HurricaneIda.jpg

HurricaneIda1.jpg

HurricaneIda2.jpg

HurricaneIda3.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

I literally cannot even explain the devastation tonight in Southeast Louisiana. Levees have been overtopped in various places with some unconfirmed reports of levee failure in Baton Rouge. Don't we have a member on PT that lives in Houma, Louisiana? I hope that person evacuated, if anyone is able to contact this person PLEASE DO SO! All of the city of New Orleans is without power tonight as power transmission towers have collapsed into the Mississippi River. Flash Flood Emergencies in effect. Reports of wind damage all across SE LA. Lots of roof damage and flood reports. This is not stopping anytime soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GottmitAlex
41 minutes ago, JLM said:

I literally cannot even explain the devastation tonight in Southeast Louisiana. Levees have been overtopped in various places with some unconfirmed reports of levee failure in Baton Rouge. Don't we have a member on PT that lives in Houma, Louisiana? I hope that person evacuated, if anyone is able to contact this person PLEASE DO SO! All of the city of New Orleans is without power tonight as power transmission towers have collapsed into the Mississippi River. Flash Flood Emergencies in effect. Reports of wind damage all across SE LA. Lots of roof damage and flood reports. This is not stopping anytime soon.

Prayers go out to everyone affected. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Ida moves northeast tonight into Tennessee. Flash Flood Watches from FL and AL all the way to coastal MA. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding a possibility in these areas. Tornado threat continues tonight and into tomorrow across the southeast from the leftover rainbands from Ida. 

While Ida was tearing into Louisiana, Tropical Storm Julian formed in the subtropical Atlantic. This storm is now gone.

Tropical Storm Kate formed just after Julian, Kate is expected to remain a tropical storm as it heads north into the subtropical Atlantic. 

Invest 90L, that just moved off the coast of Africa, has a 90% chance to develop over the next 5 days. As of this current moment, the pattern looks favorable for this one to become an OTS powerhouse ACE producer. Looking at a potential strong hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic if models verify. There is a need to watch Bermuda, but this is extremely far out in time. Caribbean islands should not have an issue with this, but I will let everyone know here if that changes.

Another area of development in the SW Caribbean Sea, where Ida originated from, has a 20% chance of slow development over the next 5 days. The difference between this disturbance and Ida, is this disturbance has a much higher chance of moving inland over Central America and never developing. Most models and their ensembles show this occuring, so if you see any model guidance images showing a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast this weekend, ignore it for now. Of course, you will know if that changes, but as of right now not much is expected out of this. However, it should still be watched closely just in case. Even if this does develop and never moves inland over Central America, the environment will not be nearly as favorable as it was for Hurricane Ida.

We are now going knee deep into the peak of the hurricane season, so folks in the Caribbean, the US East Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and Mexico should obviously keep an eye on the tropics and be prepared for when the next storm comes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

I just watched the Tropical Tidbits run through September 16, 2021. Notwithstanding the horrible consequences of Ida, as you pointed out, Ida did not originate in the Cape Verde Islands. 
 

The Tropical Tidbits run this morning does not show any hurricane activity affecting the eastern continental United States through September 16, 2021 or the Gulf of Mexico. I am very surprised at the lack of Cape Verde storms this year. I know this is simply Tropical Tidbit runs and it can change on a dime. My experience with them over the years has been that they are amazingly accurate.

 

Can anyone opine on the unexpectedly low level of Cape Verde storms this year? Does this portend a hot and heavy late September/ October Caribbean Sidewinder year? As I have said, I will take Caribbean Sidewinders that historically hit Florida west to east any day over the nuclear tipped Cape Verde.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM
3 hours ago, bubba said:

I just watched the Tropical Tidbits run through September 16, 2021. Notwithstanding the horrible consequences of Ida, as you pointed out, Ida did not originate in the Cape Verde Islands. 
 

The Tropical Tidbits run this morning does not show any hurricane activity affecting the eastern continental United States through September 16, 2021 or the Gulf of Mexico. I am very surprised at the lack of Cape Verde storms this year. I know this is simply Tropical Tidbit runs and it can change on a dime. My experience with them over the years has been that they are amazingly accurate.

 

Can anyone opine on the unexpectedly low level of Cape Verde storms this year? Does this portend a hot and heavy late September/ October Caribbean Sidewinder year? As I have said, I will take Caribbean Sidewinders that historically hit Florida west to east any day over the nuclear tipped Cape Verde.

Which specific model on Tropical Tidbits? There is the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM, ICON, and JMA global models. There there are EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble, there is the HWRF and HMON hurricane specific models. There is the NAM32K, NAM12K, NAM3K, HRRR, FV3 HI-RES, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, and HRDPS in the Mesoscale group, then CFS and CanSIPS in the Climate group. Tons of model data on this site. 

Sometimes models have to see that the storm exists before it can even begin to think about accurately forecasting it. For example, Laura in its early stages was not picked up by the models until it was over Hispaniola, yet it developed just before reaching the Antilles. Laura went on to be Louisiana's strongest landfalling hurricane (Ida just tied this). We will remain in a favorable pattern through at least mid September, climatology suggests we will have another storm shortly after 90L, this should be expected whether models forecast it or not given the time of year.
Storm motion also has to do with placement of the ridge, a stronger and more expansive ridge will push a storm more towards the west, a weaker ridge will allow for fish storms (current pattern). 

90L should be monitored along the US East Coast, if the trough pulls out early, that could allow ridging to build to its north and push it west at a higher latitude. Although as of right now, this is expected to remain out to sea.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM

Tropical Depression Twelve forms off the coast of Africa, expected to move out to sea.

cone graphic

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

I did not see any Cape Verde storms in any of the Models you described, which are predicted to hit the eastern United States in any of the current runs. This includes the Tropical Depression 12, which you have highlighted above. As you stated, this Tropical Depression 12, which is a Cape Verde, appears in all Models to be headed far northerly and having no effect on the continental eastern US beyond September 16, 2021.

Can you explain the lack of Cape Verde’s this season that are currently on the launch pad in Africa capable of hitting the continental eastern US before key variables (cooler water, wind patterns, etc...) end the Cape Verde seasonal threat? What does this pattern mean for the remainder of 2021 hurricane season (ie October/November 2021), as in Sidewinders?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM
8 hours ago, bubba said:

I did not see any Cape Verde storms in any of the Models you described, which are predicted to hit the eastern United States in any of the current runs. This includes the Tropical Depression 12, which you have highlighted above. As you stated, this Tropical Depression 12, which is a Cape Verde, appears in all Models to be headed far northerly and having no effect on the continental eastern US beyond September 16, 2021.

Can you explain the lack of Cape Verde’s this season that are currently on the launch pad in Africa capable of hitting the continental eastern US before key variables (cooler water, wind patterns, etc...) end the Cape Verde seasonal threat? What does this pattern mean for the remainder of 2021 hurricane season (ie October/November 2021), as in Sidewinders?

 

 

We still have a while to go for the Cape Verde season, the waves that are coming off just arent developing like they usually do, despite somewhat favorable conditions. This can cause systems, like Hurricane Ida, that originated from a tropical wave, to develop further west. October looks to be active, but maybe not as active as last season. Usually, as you know, the later part of the season typically has sidewinders, definitely watch for those October and November. As for you question, i really cant explain it. Although, it is now September, more of these waves should develop as they come off. Their eventual track could either be out to sea, or towards the islands.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looking Glass

Without the storms here, it’s dry in South Florida lately.  Too dry lately with this summer heat.  I know I shouldn’t complain, but man, things could use a little rain around here.  Just a few distant outer bands would do.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JLM
16 hours ago, bubba said:

I did not see any Cape Verde storms in any of the Models you described, which are predicted to hit the eastern United States in any of the current runs. This includes the Tropical Depression 12, which you have highlighted above. As you stated, this Tropical Depression 12, which is a Cape Verde, appears in all Models to be headed far northerly and having no effect on the continental eastern US beyond September 16, 2021.

Can you explain the lack of Cape Verde’s this season that are currently on the launch pad in Africa capable of hitting the continental eastern US before key variables (cooler water, wind patterns, etc...) end the Cape Verde seasonal threat? What does this pattern mean for the remainder of 2021 hurricane season (ie October/November 2021), as in Sidewinders?

 

 

After looking back at the month of August, the following storms originated from tropical waves: Tropical Storm Fred, Hurricane Grace, Hurricane Ida, Tropical Storm Julian, Tropical Storm Kate, and now as of this morning, newly named Tropical Storm Larry. Id say the Cape Verde season has been about normal so far.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Heavy SAL (Saharan Air Layer) here in So. Fl. Do not remember it this heavy at this time of year (September 1, 2021).

Cape Verde’s hit in the lower Carribean and even the extreme southern part of So. Fl. and Keys later than September 15. However, the historical line in the sand for PB and Cape Verde’s is September 15-16. Would have to launch by September 3, 2021 with 12 day runway to be a real Cape Verde contender.

Sidewinder’s?

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Latest GFS Tropical Tidbits run shows a low pressure (972) affecting Galveston, Texas around September 17, 2021 and moving NW inland. Appears to be a TS at that low pressure level. 
 

Nothing else in the run through September 20, 2021 affecting the eastern continental US.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Today’s Tropical Tidbit run shows same low pressure area affecting easternmost Texas around September 17 (975 low pressure/TS?). No Tropical Storms or Hurricanes affecting the continental eastern US through September 21, 2021.

Should this prove true, it looks like we may have avoided Cape Verde’s this year! Now we will see what Sidewinder Season delivers…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

The latest Tropical Tidbits GFS run shows the weak hurricane/tropical storm (975) now hits northern Mexico around September 18, 2021.

No Hurricane activity affects eastern continental US through September 22, 2021. 
 

Any ideas on why Hurricane activity has been so flaccid during the this normally active time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bubba

Latest Tropical Tidbit run shows no Cape Verde or hurricane activity affecting the continental eastern US or Gulf of Mexico through September 24.

It does show minor areas of low pressure not even approaching Tropical Storm development crossing NW Florida September 10, crossing NW Texas on September 13, impacting SC/NC September 20, and affecting coastal Alabama and NW Florida September 23.

The African loop shows all monsoons rolling of Africa to be quickly subsumed by what looks like windshear. 
 

Can any weather expert opine on the lack of Cape Verde activity this year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...